Modelling the spread of serotype-2 vaccine derived-poliovirus outbreak in Pakistan and Afghanistan to inform outbreak control strategies in the context of the COVID-19 pandemic

High volumes of passenger air travel increase the risk of infectious disease epidemics and pandemics. Regional preparedness planning for large-scale outbreaks requires models that are able to capture outbreak dynamics within a control policy evaluation framework. Previous studies focused on either modeling outbreak dynamics or optimizing outbreak control decisions; this paper proposes an integrated approach that combines both aspects. A multiscale epidemic outbreak model is introduced that is designed to capture the infection dynamics at both the local (city) scale and the global (air travel) scale. A bilevel decision-making framework is then proposed to identify the optimal set of outbreak control policies, while accounting for local and global outbreak dynamics. The model is implemented for a case study in which a hypothetical epidemic outbreak is assumed to emerge from within the United States, and different control resource allocation strategies are explored and evaluated. The results highlight the importance of accounting for outbreak dynamics within the decision-making process and provide insight into the design and efficiency of a range of control strategies. This research is an initial effort to be followed by further research on the design of outbreak control strategies by using optimization algorithms under this framework.

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A decision-support framework to optimize border control for global outbreak mitigation

10.1101/414185 ◽

2018 ◽

Author(s):

Aleksa Zlojutro ◽

David Rey ◽

Lauren Gardner

Keyword(s):

Decision Support ◽

Control Strategies ◽

Influenza Pandemic ◽

Emerging Infectious Diseases ◽

Control Policy ◽

Sensitivity Analyses ◽

Border Control ◽

Modeling Framework ◽

Support Tool ◽

Outbreak Control

AbstractThe introduction and spread of emerging infectious diseases is increasing in both prevalence and scale. Whether naturally, accidentally or maliciously introduced, the substantial uncertainty surrounding the emergence of novel viruses, specifically where they may come from and how they will spread, demands robust and quantifiably validated outbreak control policies that can be implemented in real time. This work presents a novel mathematical modeling framework that integrates both outbreak dynamics and outbreak control into a decision support tool for mitigating infectious disease pandemics that spread through passenger air travel. An ensemble of border control strategies that exploit properties of the air traffic network structure and expected outbreak behavior are proposed. A stochastic metapopulation epidemic model is developed to evaluate and rank the control strategies based on their effectiveness in reducing the spread of outbreaks. Sensitivity analyses are conducted to illustrate the robustness of the proposed control strategies across a range of outbreak scenarios, and a case study is presented for the 2009 H1N1 influenza pandemic. This study highlights the importance of strategically allocating outbreak control resources, and the results can be used to identify the most robust border control policy that can be implemented in the early stages of an outbreak.

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A COST-EFFECTIVENESS ANALYSIS OF MEASLES OUTBREAK CONTROL STRATEGIES

American Journal of Epidemiology ◽

10.1093/oxfordjournals.aje.a114676 ◽

1987 ◽

Vol 126 (3) ◽

pp. 450-459 ◽

Cited By ~ 13

Author(s):

RONALD M. DAVIS ◽

LAURI E. MARKOWITZ ◽

STEPHEN R. PREBLUD ◽

WALTER A. ORENSTEIN ◽

ALAN R. HINMAN

Keyword(s):

Cost Effectiveness ◽

Control Strategies ◽

Cost Effectiveness Analysis ◽

Outbreak Control ◽

Effectiveness Analysis ◽

Measles Outbreak

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The Characteristics of Imported Cases and the Effectiveness of Outbreak Control Strategies of Pandemic Influenza A (H1N1) in China

Asia Pacific Journal of Public Health ◽

10.1177/1010539511408285 ◽

2011 ◽

Vol 24 (6) ◽

pp. 932-939 ◽

Cited By ~ 4

Author(s):

Yi Zhang ◽

Peng Yang ◽

Surabhi Liyanage ◽

Holly Seale ◽

Ying Deng ◽

...

Keyword(s):

Pandemic Influenza ◽

Influenza A ◽

Control Strategies ◽

Outbreak Control ◽

Influenza A H1n1 ◽

Imported Cases

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Long term effect of infection control practices and associated factors during a major Clostridium difficile outbreak in Costa Rica

The Journal of Infection in Developing Countries ◽

10.3855/jidc.2854 ◽

2013 ◽

Vol 7 (12) ◽

pp. 914-921 ◽

Cited By ~ 6

Author(s):

Roy A Wong-McClure ◽

Elenita Ramírez-Salas ◽

Nury Mora-Brenes ◽

Lorena Aguero-Sandí ◽

Maritza Morera-Sigler ◽

...

Keyword(s):

Costa Rica ◽

Infection Control ◽

Medical History ◽

Incidence Rate ◽

Control Strategies ◽

Virulent Strain ◽

Descriptive Analysis ◽

Control Measures ◽

Outbreak Control ◽

History Of

Introduction: The C. difficile BI/NAP 1 hyper virulent strain has been responsible for the nosocomial outbreaks in several countries. The present study describes the infection control strategies utilized to achieve outbreak control as well as the factors associated with a C. difficile BI/NAP 1 hyper virulent strain outbreak in Costa Rica. Methodology: A descriptive analysis of the C. difficile outbreak was completed for the period of January 2007 to December 2010 in one affected hospital. An unmatched case-control study was subsequently performed to evaluate the association of exposure factors with C. difficile infection. Results: The pattern of the outbreak was characterized by a sharp increase in the incidence rate during the initial weeks of the outbreak, which was followed by a reduction in the incidence curve as several infection control measures were implemented. The C. difficile BI/NAP1 infection was associated with the prescription of antibiotics, in particular levofloxacin (OR: 9.3; 95%CI: 2.1-40.2), meropenem (OR: 4.9, 95%CI: 1.0-22.9), cefotaxime (OR: 4.3, 95%CI: 2.4-7.7), as well as a medical history of diabetes mellitus (OR: 2.9, 95%CI: 1.5-5.8). Conclusions: The infection control strategies implemented proved to be effective in achieving outbreak control and in maintaining the baseline C. difficile incidence rate following it. The reported C. difficile outbreak was associated with the prescription of broad-spectrum antibiotics and a medical history of diabetes.

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