Combination and evaluation of expert opinions characterized in terms of fuzzy probabilities

2000 ◽  
Vol 27 (8) ◽  
pp. 713-726 ◽  
Author(s):  
Donghan Yu ◽  
Won S. Park
1992 ◽  
Vol 36 (13) ◽  
pp. 940-944
Author(s):  
John G. Kreifeldt

A number of mandated and voluntary standards and guidelines expressed as good practice have been set out for the design of warnings. However, the question always arises as to whether or not a given warning will accomplish (or would have accomplished) its purpose of preventing injury whether or not it follows such guidelines. The answer to this question must be phrased in probabilities and sometimes only in qualitative form such as “low probability”, “high probability”, “more probable than not”, etc. In order to obtain such answers, experts are often consulted for their opinions. A methodology is presented which can be used as a basis for checking the consistency of the final conclusions or opinions using the concept of “fuzzy probabilities” and conceptually simple computations. The methodology is also of use to the expert in formulating his opinion rationally and deducing its implications clearly. This methodology is presented here in the context of the opined probability of effectiveness of warnings and instructions although it may be used in any context in which the total proposition can be phrased as a set of interrelated sub propositions as is common in reliability theory, decision theory, etc.


1990 ◽  
Vol 54 (10) ◽  
pp. 612-618 ◽  
Author(s):  
CA Palmer ◽  
J Dwyer ◽  
RE Clark
Keyword(s):  

2018 ◽  
Vol 1 (2) ◽  
pp. 212-232
Author(s):  
Sam Abede Pareno ◽  
M Rif’an Arif

ABSTRACT Religious traditions in Indonesia are known to be very moderate and tolerant abroad is a reflection of the character of a great noble nation. Between religion, tradition and culture are able to perform compounds so as to create a genuine religious harmony. Because of this reality Indonesia is regarded as the largest Muslim majority country in the world that almost without conflict, in the midst of reality Muslim countries in the Middle East that impressed the dispute into the daily menu. However, the reality of Indonesia as a moderate nation is injured by the act of a group that is fond of terrorism and radicalism by riding Islamic religious teachings. Thus, this reversed religion is assumed as a source of cruelty.   It is through that phenomenon researcher, feel the need to examine the strategy of disseminating moderate Islam by Nahdlatul Ulama. The selection of this Islamic organization according to the authors due to its success in moderating Islam in Indonesia. In this study, the study using a qualitative approach or method as well as adopting the theory of Van Dijk discourse analysis as a scalpel to peel the discourse of moderate Islam published by PWNU East Java through the website. As for this research, the findings are important, among others are: 1) moderate Islamic discourse campaigned by Nahdlatul Ulama East Java is categorized into three segments, namely social, religious and nationality. 2) the text structure that builds moderate Islamic discourse NU East Java in Van Dijk perspective constructed in three domains, namely text, social cognition and social context. 3) the principles of Public Relationship implemented by NU through cyber (online media), among others; News publications and expert opinions, production of image and video-based information, and updating official NU information to the public about their attitudes and views on the phenomena that occur by promoting the values of Islamic moderatism. Key Word : Islamic Moderatism, Nahdlatul Ulama, Cyber Public Relationship


Author(s):  
S.U. Lyapina ◽  
◽  
V.N. Tarasova ◽  
V.B. Ruchkin ◽  
E.O. Koscheeva ◽  
...  

The quality issues of new services directly affect the competitiveness of service organizations. However, the introduction of new services to the market is often limited only to the construction of the logistics of business processes, and the design applies only to technological equipment and infrastructure, the quality of which ultimately does not always ensure the quality of the services provided. At the same time, quality management affects mainly operational aspects, that is, it covers the later stages of the service life cycle. In resource-intensive service industries (for example, transport, communications, etc.), the high cost of equipment and infrastructure reduces the possibility of changes in service delivery technologies to improve their quality, which leads to inefficiency and market failures due to the fact that the new service does not match the real needs of customers. Despite this, forecasting and planning the quality of a service at the stage «making a decision» to launch a new service on the market remains largely without sufficient attention. The authors prove the need to design the quality of services at the stage «making a decision» to bring new services to the market. The purpose of the article is to describe the approach developed by the authors to assessing the quality of projected services at the early stages of their life cycle, which makes it possible to integrate qualitative and quantitative indicators of the future service and take into account the forecast requests of customers. The proposed approach has two features: (1) forecasting customer requirements for the quality of services is based on the results of machine learning based on data on existing and potential customers, as well as on the basis of the accumulated knowledge base of customer experience and expert opinions; (2) multi-criteria optimization is used, while some of the optimized parameters are discrete and high-quality. In conclusion, the authors demonstrated the advantages of the developed model on the examples of transport and logistics business in the field of passenger and freight transportation in Russia.


2020 ◽  
Vol 26 (9) ◽  
pp. 957-968
Author(s):  
K. I. Derevyanko ◽  
V. P. Orlovskaya

Aim. The presented study aims to conduct a comprehensive phenomenological analysis of creativity as a resource for the development of a service enterprise through the example of the creative activity of event agencies. Tasks. The authors examine the phenomenon of creativity and develop a theoretical framework for considering creativity as a resource for the development of a service enterprise through the example of event agencies; identify the indicators of creativity of a service enterprise; develop a scale of creativity of event agencies operating in the modern services market. Methodology. The theoretical and methodological basis of this study includes the works of Russian and foreign scientists and experts in the field of creativity and its use as a resource for the development of service enterprises. The authors use the phenomenological method (to examine the phenomenon of creativity as a whole), comparative (comparison of approaches, ideas, and experience of different countries in the field of creative activity), hermeneutical (interpretation of various aspects related to the analysis of creativity), and systems analysis. To examine the indicators of creativity of event agencies, this study uses quantitative and qualitative analysis of information materials published on the official websites of the examined cities, convention and event agencies, statistics of professional associations of congress and exhibition organizations, including the International Congress and Convention Association (ICCA), as well as other analytical reports, expert opinions, and applied research on the topic. The study analyzes statistics on the number and themes of events held in each city, event infrastructure, the range of provided services, and the level of service. The cities are then comparatively analyzed based on the results of examination of each city, and general conclusions are formulated. Results. The main problem addressed by this study is associated with the concept of “creativity”, its content, degree, limits, and risks. The scientific novelty of the study is predicated upon the insufficient investigation of the problem of creativity as a resource for the development of a service enterprise. This study is one of the first attempts to develop a methodology for comprehensively analyzing the phenomenon of creativity with regard to event agencies. The results obtained during the study are vital for the theoretical conceptualization and practical solution of the problem of creativity in the context of economic knowledge: the key indicators of creativity of an event agency are identified and a creativity assessment model is developed based on the range of possible manifestations of creativity in the professional activity of event agencies. Creativity is analyzed as a resource for the development of a service enterprise through the example of the activity of event agencies. Eight indicators of creativity of an event agency are identified and an assessment scale is developed. The creativity indicators include “fluency”, “flexibility”, “originality”, “elaboration and synthesis”, “redirection”, “redefinition”, “reinitiation”, and “generation”. These eight indicators are incorporated into a creativity scale based on the Likert scale, which makes it possible to assess the degree (level) of creativity of an event agency on a scale of one to ten. As a result, the following problems are solved: the essence of the concept of “creativity” is determined and its main features are identified by analyzing the specific aspects of the modern MICE industry landscape. Scientific information on the topic is analyzed, systematized, and generalized. Russian and foreign experience of using creativity as a resource for the development of a service enterprise is comparatively analyzed. Conclusions. The special role of creativity as a resource for the development of an event agency is revealed, and the indicators of the agency’s creativity are formulated. A creativity scale is developed. The correlation between the competitiveness of a service enterprise and the use of the creative resource in its development is determined. This study is one of the first attempts to develop a methodology for comprehensively analyzing the phenomenon of creativity with regard to event agencies. The results of the study are important for the theoretical conceptualization and practical solution of the problem of creativity in the context of economic knowledge.


2018 ◽  
Author(s):  
Albert Moreira ◽  
Raul Alonso-Calvo ◽  
Alberto Muñoz ◽  
Jose Crespo

BACKGROUND Internet and Social media is an enormous source of information. Health Social Networks and online collaborative environments enable users to create shared content that afterwards can be discussed. While social media discussions for health related matters constitute a potential source of knowledge, characterizing the relevance of participations from different users is a challenging task. OBJECTIVE The aim of this paper is to present a methodology designed for quantifying relevant information provided by different participants in clinical online discussions. METHODS A set of key indicators for different aspects of clinical conversations and specific clinical contributions within a discussion have been defined. These indicators make use of biomedical knowledge extraction based on standard terminologies and ontologies. These indicators allow measuring the relevance of information of each participant of the clinical conversation. RESULTS Proposed indicators have been applied to two discussions extracted from PatientsLikeMe, as well as to two real clinical cases from the Sanar collaborative discussion system. Results obtained from indicators in the tested cases have been compared with clinical expert opinions to check indicators validity. CONCLUSIONS The methodology has been successfully used for describing participant interactions in real clinical cases belonging to a collaborative clinical case discussion tool and from a conversation from a Health Social Network.


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