Climate change 1994: Radiative forcing of climate change and an evaluation of the IPCC IS92 emission scenarios. Intergovernmental panel on climate change (IPCC)

1997 ◽  
Vol 15 (1-2) ◽  
pp. 59-60
Author(s):  
Gerald R. North
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Radiative Forcing ◽  
Emission Scenarios ◽  
Intergovernmental Panel

Perhitungan Emisi Gas Buang Harian Mesin Pesawat Udara di Bandar Udara Husein Sastranegara-Bandung

WARTA ARDHIA ◽  
2013 ◽  
Vol 39 (1) ◽  
pp. 24-41
Author(s):  
Minda Mora
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Radiative Forcing ◽  
Hybrid Approach ◽  
Aircraft Engine ◽  
Air Transport ◽  
Aircraft Engines ◽  
Engine Emissions ◽  
Intergovernmental Panel ◽  
Normal Limits ◽  
Research Aircraft

Air transport contributes significantly to air pollution. Based on the reports of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), by 1992 the air transport accounted for 3.5% of the total anthropogenic radiative forcing of the atmosphere. It is expected to rise to 12.2%, in 2050. Furthermore, the airport is one area that has been the concentration of aircraft engine emissions. In this research, aircraft engines emission is calculated using actual data flights in airports (hybrid approach). This study aims to determine the amount of Carbon Monoxide (CO) and nitrogen oxides (NOx) generated daily from aircraft engine and then compared with the levels of CO and NOx are allowed. The result shows that the levels of CO and NOx generated daily from aircraft engines in Husein Sastranegara Airport- Bandung is still within normal limits. Transportasi udara memberikan kontribusi yang signifikan terhadap polusi udara. Berdasarkan laporan Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), pada tahun 1992 transportasi udara menyumbang 3,5% dari total anthropogenic radiative forcing di atmosfer. Hal ini diperkirakan akan meningkat menjadi sebesar 12,2%, pada tahun 2050. Selanjutnya, bandar udara merupakan salah satu area yang menjadi tempat terkonsentrasinya emisi gas buang pesawat udara. Dalam penelitian ini dilakukan perhitungan emisi gas buang mesin pesawat udara dengan menggunakan data aktual penerbangan di bandar udara (pendekatan hibrid). Penelitian ini bertujuan untuk mengetahui besaran Karbon Monoksida (CO) dan Nitrogen Oksida (NOx) harian yang dihasilkan dari mesin pesawat udara yang kemudian dibandingkan dengan kadar CO dan NOx yang diperbolehkan. Hasil perhitungan menunjukkan bahwa kadar CO dan NOx harian yang dihasilkan dari mesin pesawat udara di Bandar Udara Husein Sastranegara-Bandung masih dalam batas normal.

scholarly journals Weighting climate model projections using observational constraints

2015 ◽  
Vol 373 (2054) ◽  
pp. 20140425 ◽  
Author(s):  
Nathan P. Gillett
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Radiative Forcing ◽  
Climate Model ◽  
Historical Period ◽  
Intergovernmental Panel ◽  
Transient Climate Response ◽  
Detection And Attribution ◽  
Future Warming ◽  
Near Term ◽  
Climate Model Simulations

Projected climate change integrates the net response to multiple climate feedbacks. Whereas existing long-term climate change projections are typically based on unweighted individual climate model simulations, as observed climate change intensifies it is increasingly becoming possible to constrain the net response to feedbacks and hence projected warming directly from observed climate change. One approach scales simulated future warming based on a fit to observations over the historical period, but this approach is only accurate for near-term projections and for scenarios of continuously increasing radiative forcing. For this reason, the recent Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC AR5) included such observationally constrained projections in its assessment of warming to 2035, but used raw model projections of longer term warming to 2100. Here a simple approach to weighting model projections based on an observational constraint is proposed which does not assume a linear relationship between past and future changes. This approach is used to weight model projections of warming in 2081–2100 relative to 1986–2005 under the Representative Concentration Pathway 4.5 forcing scenario, based on an observationally constrained estimate of the Transient Climate Response derived from a detection and attribution analysis. The resulting observationally constrained 5–95% warming range of 0.8–2.5 K is somewhat lower than the unweighted range of 1.1–2.6 K reported in the IPCC AR5.

scholarly journals Lorenz Atmospheric Energy Cycle in Climatic Projections

Climate ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 9 (12) ◽  
pp. 180
Author(s):  
Silas Michaelides
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Radiative Forcing ◽  
Time Dependent ◽  
Future Period ◽  
Intergovernmental Panel ◽  
Assessment Report ◽  
Representative Concentration Pathways ◽  
Atmospheric Energy ◽  
Energy Cycle ◽  
Lorenz Energy Cycle

The aim of this study is to investigate whether different Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs), as they are determined in the Fifth Assessment Report (AR5) of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), lead to different regimes in the energetics components of the Lorenz energy cycle. The four energy forms on which this investigation is based are the zonal and eddy components of the available potential and kinetic energies. The corresponding transformations between these forms of energy are also studied. RCPs are time-dependent, consistent scenarios of concentrations of radiatively active gases and particles. In the present study, four RCPs are explored, namely, rcp26, rcp45, rcp60, rcp85; these represent projections (for the future period 2006–2100) that result in radiative forcing of approximately 2.6, 4.5, 6.0 and 8.5 Wm−2 at year 2100, respectively, relative to pre-industrial conditions. The results are presented in terms of time projections of the energetics components from 2020 to 2100 and show that the different RCPs yield diverse energetics regimes, consequently impacting the Lorenz energy cycle. In this respect, projections under different RCPs of the Lorenz energy cycle are presented.

scholarly journals Global warming feedbacks on terrestrial carbon uptake under the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Emission Scenarios

2001 ◽  
Vol 15 (4) ◽  
pp. 891-907 ◽  
Author(s):  
Fortunat Joos ◽  
I. Colin Prentice ◽  
Stephen Sitch ◽  
Robert Meyer ◽  
Georg Hooss ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Global Warming ◽  
Carbon Uptake ◽  
Emission Scenarios ◽  
Terrestrial Carbon ◽  
Intergovernmental Panel

scholarly journals Sensitivity to Glacial Forcing in the CCSM4

2013 ◽  
Vol 26 (6) ◽  
pp. 1901-1925 ◽  
Author(s):  
Esther C. Brady ◽  
Bette L. Otto-Bliesner ◽  
Jennifer E. Kay ◽  
Nan Rosenbloom
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Atmospheric Aerosols ◽  
Radiative Forcing ◽  
Coupled Model ◽  
Meridional Overturning Circulation ◽  
Deep Basin ◽  
Intergovernmental Panel ◽  
Climate System Model ◽  
Orbital Parameters ◽  
Intercomparison Project

Abstract Results are presented from the Community Climate System Model, version 4 (CCSM4), simulation of the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM) from phase 5 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5) at the standard 1° resolution, the same resolution as the majority of the CCSM4 CMIP5 long-term simulations for the historical and future projection scenarios. The forcings and boundary conditions for this simulation follow the protocols of the Paleoclimate Modeling Intercomparison Project, version 3 (PMIP3). Two additional CCSM4 CO2 sensitivity simulations, in which the concentrations are abruptly changed at the start of the simulation to the low 185 ppm LGM concentrations (LGMCO2) and to a quadrupling of the preindustrial concentration (4×CO2), are also analyzed. For the full LGM simulation, the estimated equilibrium cooling of the global mean annual surface temperature is 5.5°C with an estimated radiative forcing of −6.2 W m−2. The radiative forcing includes the effects of the reduced LGM greenhouse gases, ice sheets, continental distribution with sea level lowered by approximately 120 m from the present, and orbital parameters, but not changes to atmospheric aerosols or vegetation biogeography. The LGM simulation has an equilibrium climate sensitivity (ECS) of 3.1(±0.3)°C, comparable to the CCSM4 4×CO2 result. The LGMCO2 simulation shows a greater ECS of 4.2°C. Other responses found at the LGM in CCSM4 include a global precipitation rate decrease at a rate of ~2% °C−1, similar to climate change simulations in the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Fourth Assessment Report (IPCC AR4); a strengthening of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (AMOC) with a shoaling of North Atlantic Deep Water and a filling of the deep basin up to sill depth with Antarctic Bottom Water; and an enhanced seasonal cycle accompanied by reduced ENSO variability in the eastern Pacific Ocean’s SSTs.

scholarly journals Emerging role of wetland methane emissions in driving 21st century climate change

2017 ◽  
Vol 114 (36) ◽  
pp. 9647-9652 ◽  
Author(s):  
Zhen Zhang ◽  
Niklaus E. Zimmermann ◽  
Andrea Stenke ◽  
Xin Li ◽  
Elke L. Hodson ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
21St Century ◽  
Radiative Forcing ◽  
General Circulation ◽  
General Circulation Models ◽  
Cold Season ◽  
Climate Mitigation ◽  
Climate Feedbacks ◽  
Intergovernmental Panel ◽  
Worst Case

Wetland methane (CH4) emissions are the largest natural source in the global CH4 budget, contributing to roughly one third of total natural and anthropogenic emissions. As the second most important anthropogenic greenhouse gas in the atmosphere after CO2, CH4 is strongly associated with climate feedbacks. However, due to the paucity of data, wetland CH4 feedbacks were not fully assessed in the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Fifth Assessment Report. The degree to which future expansion of wetlands and CH4 emissions will evolve and consequently drive climate feedbacks is thus a question of major concern. Here we present an ensemble estimate of wetland CH4 emissions driven by 38 general circulation models for the 21st century. We find that climate change-induced increases in boreal wetland extent and temperature-driven increases in tropical CH4 emissions will dominate anthropogenic CH4 emissions by 38 to 56% toward the end of the 21st century under the Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP2.6). Depending on scenarios, wetland CH4 feedbacks translate to an increase in additional global mean radiative forcing of 0.04 W·m−2 to 0.19 W·m−2 by the end of the 21st century. Under the “worst-case” RCP8.5 scenario, with no climate mitigation, boreal CH4 emissions are enhanced by 18.05 Tg to 41.69 Tg, due to thawing of inundated areas during the cold season (December to May) and rising temperature, while tropical CH4 emissions accelerate with a total increment of 48.36 Tg to 87.37 Tg by 2099. Our results suggest that climate mitigation policies must consider mitigation of wetland CH4 feedbacks to maintain average global warming below 2 °C.

scholarly journals Catalogue of abrupt shifts in Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change climate models

2015 ◽  
Vol 112 (43) ◽  
pp. E5777-E5786 ◽  
Author(s):  
Sybren Drijfhout ◽  
Sebastian Bathiany ◽  
Claudie Beaulieu ◽  
Victor Brovkin ◽  
Martin Claussen ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Global Warming ◽  
Ocean Circulation ◽  
Radiative Forcing ◽  
Climate Models ◽  
Climate Model ◽  
General Relation ◽  
Intergovernmental Panel ◽  
Abrupt Changes ◽  
Abrupt Shifts

Abrupt transitions of regional climate in response to the gradual rise in atmospheric greenhouse gas concentrations are notoriously difficult to foresee. However, such events could be particularly challenging in view of the capacity required for society and ecosystems to adapt to them. We present, to our knowledge, the first systematic screening of the massive climate model ensemble informing the recent Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change report, and reveal evidence of 37 forced regional abrupt changes in the ocean, sea ice, snow cover, permafrost, and terrestrial biosphere that arise after a certain global temperature increase. Eighteen out of 37 events occur for global warming levels of less than 2°, a threshold sometimes presented as a safe limit. Although most models predict one or more such events, any specific occurrence typically appears in only a few models. We find no compelling evidence for a general relation between the overall number of abrupt shifts and the level of global warming. However, we do note that abrupt changes in ocean circulation occur more often for moderate warming (less than 2°), whereas over land they occur more often for warming larger than 2°. Using a basic proportion test, however, we find that the number of abrupt shifts identified in Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) 8.5 scenarios is significantly larger than in other scenarios of lower radiative forcing. This suggests the potential for a gradual trend of destabilization of the climate with respect to such shifts, due to increasing global mean temperature change.

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