scholarly journals Radiative forcing by well-mixed greenhouse gases: Estimates from climate models in the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Fourth Assessment Report (AR4)

2006 ◽  
Vol 111 (D14) ◽  
Author(s):  
W. D. Collins ◽  
V. Ramaswamy ◽  
M. D. Schwarzkopf ◽  
Y. Sun ◽  
R. W. Portmann ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Greenhouse Gases ◽  
Radiative Forcing ◽  
Climate Models ◽  
Intergovernmental Panel ◽  
Assessment Report ◽  
Fourth Assessment Report

Climate Change and People Change: Dancing the Dialectic

2017 ◽  
Vol 10 (2) ◽  
pp. 72-81
Author(s):  
Paul O'Keefe
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Greenhouse Gases ◽  
East Africa ◽  
Livelihood Strategies ◽  
Extreme Conditions ◽  
Intergovernmental Panel ◽  
Human Environment ◽  
Assessment Report ◽  
Dialectical Approach ◽  
The Subject

The fifth assessment report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC, 2014) says that accelerated climate change is occurring because of enhanced release of greenhouse gases. It is projected that temperatures will increase in East Africa but there is no agreement on how precipitation will change. There is acceptance that the climate system will throw up more frequent extreme conditions, including drought. We can begin to understand how this will materialize in people's livelihood strategies and adaptive choices. This paper identifies theoretical problems in the dominant discourses surrounding human-environment relations and climate change, and argues for a dialectical approach to the subject. It concludes with a brief vignette focused on a dialectical study of climate change.

Global Impacts of Climate Change

2011 ◽  
pp. 66-92
Author(s):  
Costas P. Pappis
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Global Warming ◽  
Working Group ◽  
Physical Science ◽  
Intergovernmental Panel ◽  
Assessment Report ◽  
Fourth Assessment Report ◽  
Global Impacts ◽  
Basic Facts

In the previous chapter, the basic facts regarding global warming have been presented, summarizing mainly the latest scientific findings reported by the UN’s Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), particularly in Working Group I’s Fourth Assessment Report on the Physical Science Basis of Climate Change (Forster et al., 2007).

scholarly journals FAIR v1.3: a simple emissions-based impulse response and carbon cycle model

2018 ◽  
Vol 11 (6) ◽  
pp. 2273-2297 ◽  
Author(s):  
Christopher J. Smith ◽  
Piers M. Forster ◽  
Myles Allen ◽  
Nicholas Leach ◽  
Richard J. Millar ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Greenhouse Gases ◽  
Radiative Forcing ◽  
Climate Models ◽  
Climate Model ◽  
Future Climate Change ◽  
Climate Response ◽  
Transient Climate Response ◽  
Carbon Cycle Model ◽  
Future Projections

Abstract. Simple climate models can be valuable if they are able to replicate aspects of complex fully coupled earth system models. Larger ensembles can be produced, enabling a probabilistic view of future climate change. A simple emissions-based climate model, FAIR, is presented, which calculates atmospheric concentrations of greenhouse gases and effective radiative forcing (ERF) from greenhouse gases, aerosols, ozone and other agents. Model runs are constrained to observed temperature change from 1880 to 2016 and produce a range of future projections under the Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) scenarios. The constrained estimates of equilibrium climate sensitivity (ECS), transient climate response (TCR) and transient climate response to cumulative CO2 emissions (TCRE) are 2.86 (2.01 to 4.22) K, 1.53 (1.05 to 2.41) K and 1.40 (0.96 to 2.23) K (1000 GtC)−1 (median and 5–95 % credible intervals). These are in good agreement with the likely Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Fifth Assessment Report (AR5) range, noting that AR5 estimates were derived from a combination of climate models, observations and expert judgement. The ranges of future projections of temperature and ranges of estimates of ECS, TCR and TCRE are somewhat sensitive to the prior distributions of ECS∕TCR parameters but less sensitive to the ERF from a doubling of CO2 or the observational temperature dataset used to constrain the ensemble. Taking these sensitivities into account, there is no evidence to suggest that the median and credible range of observationally constrained TCR or ECS differ from climate model-derived estimates. The range of temperature projections under RCP8.5 for 2081–2100 in the constrained FAIR model ensemble is lower than the emissions-based estimate reported in AR5 by half a degree, owing to differences in forcing assumptions and ECS∕TCR distributions.

The fourth assessment report of the intergovernmental panel on climate change: Working group II contribution

2007 ◽  
Vol 32 (9) ◽  
pp. 551-556 ◽  
Author(s):  
Yu. A. Izrael ◽  
S. M. Semenov ◽  
O. A. Anisimov ◽  
Yu. A. Anokhin ◽  
A. A. Velichko ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Working Group ◽  
Intergovernmental Panel ◽  
Assessment Report ◽  
Fourth Assessment Report ◽  
Group Ii

scholarly journals Awareness of Both Type 1 and 2 Errors in Climate Science and Assessment

2014 ◽  
Vol 95 (9) ◽  
pp. 1445-1451 ◽  
Author(s):  
William R. L. Anderegg ◽  
Elizabeth S. Callaway ◽  
Maxwell T. Boykoff ◽  
Gary Yohe ◽  
Terr y L. Root
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
False Negative ◽  
Decision Rules ◽  
Climate Science ◽  
Assessment Practices ◽  
Intergovernmental Panel ◽  
Assessment Report ◽  
Fourth Assessment Report ◽  
Error Avoidance

Treatment of error and uncertainty is an essential component of science and is crucial in policy-relevant disciplines, such as climate science. We posit here that awareness of both “false positive” and “false negative” errors is particularly critical in climate science and assessments, such as those of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Scientific and assessment practices likely focus more attention to avoiding false positives, which could lead to higher prevalence of false-negative errors. We explore here the treatment of error avoidance in two prominent case studies regarding sea level rise and Himalayan glacier melt as presented in the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. While different decision rules are necessarily appropriate for different circumstances, we highlight that false-negative errors also have consequences, including impaired communication of the risks of climate change. We present recommendations for better accounting for both types of errors in the scientific process and scientific assessments.

scholarly journals Fifth IPCC Assessment Report Now Out

2014 ◽  
Vol 21 (1) ◽  
pp. 9-27 ◽  
Author(s):  
Zbigniew W. Kundzewicz
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Physical Science ◽  
Climate Models ◽  
Climate System ◽  
Intergovernmental Panel ◽  
Response Options ◽  
Assessment Report ◽  
The Past ◽  
Working Groups ◽  
Synthesis Report

Abstract The Fifth Assessment Report (AR5) of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) is now available. It provides policymakers with an assessment of information on climate change, its impacts and possible response options (adaptation and mitigation). Summaries for policymakers of three reports of IPCC working groups and of the Synthesis Report have now been approved by IPCC plenaries. This present paper reports on the most essential findings in AR5. It briefly informs on the contents of reports of all IPCC working groups. It discusses the physical science findings, therein observed changes (ubiquitous warming, shrinking cryosphere, sea level rise, changes in precipitation and extremes, and biogeochemical cycles). It deals with the drivers of climate change, progress in climate system understanding (evaluation of climate models, quantification of climate system responses), and projections for the future. It reviews impacts, adaptation and vulnerability, including observed changes, key risks, key reasons for concern, sectors and systems, and managing risks and building resilience. Finally, mitigation of climate change is discussed, including greenhouse gas emissions in the past, present and future, and mitigation in sectors. It is hoped that the present article will encourage the readership of this journal to dive into the AR5 report that provides a wealth of useful information.

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