scholarly journals The development of the tidal basins in the Dutch Wadden Sea until 2100: the impact of accelerated sea-level rise and subsidence on their sediment budget – a synthesis

2018 ◽  
Vol 97 (3) ◽  
pp. 71-78 ◽  
Author(s):  
Ad J.F. van der Spek
Keyword(s):  
Sea Level Rise ◽  
Sea Level ◽  
Wadden Sea ◽  
Sediment Budget ◽  
Ocean Dynamics ◽  
Critical Rate ◽  
Mean Sea Level ◽  
Intertidal Flats ◽  
Tidal Basins ◽  
The Impact

AbstractClimate change is very likely to cause a global acceleration in sea-level rise (SLR). The projected acceleration of SLR will also affect the Wadden Sea. In addition to an accelerated SLR, gas and salt extraction will cause subsidence that adds to an increase in water depth in the tidal basins. This will have consequences for the sediment budget of the Wadden Sea and especially for the intertidal flats that have a high ecological value. This synthesis presents projections of the future state of the Dutch Wadden Sea for the years 2030, 2050 and 2100.The projected changes in mean sea level by 2100 for Den Helder and Delfzijl are above the global mean projections, mainly due to the above-average ocean dynamics and glacio-isostatic adjustment contributions in the regional projections. The projected rise in mean sea level for 2100 with relation to 2018 in these locations is 0.41m, 0.52m and 0.76m for, respectively, the RCP2.6, RCP 4.5 and RCP8.5 climate scenarios.When we combine the presented SLR scenarios with the subsidence estimates and compare these rates to the critical rates for ‘drowning’ of intertidal flats that were calculated for the individual tidal basins, we can determine the moment that the maximum imported sediment volume can no longer compensate the increase in accommodation space in a basin and the intertidal flats will start to diminish in surface area and/or height. In the RCP2.6 scenario, the projected rates of relative SLR will be below the critical rate for drowning of the inlet systems in the Dutch Wadden Sea. For the RCP4.5 scenario, the critical SLR rate will be exceeded for Vlie Inlet in 2030, and for the RCP8.5 scenario the critical SLR rate will be exceeded for Vlie Inlet in 2030, Texel Inlet in 2050 and Ameland Inlet in 2100. For the other basins the critical rate will not be exceeded until 2100 or later.The way the intertidal flats in a basin will react to ‘drowning’ is not clear beforehand. It is highly possible that erosion of flats in one place will produce the sediment to maintain flats in other places. Tidal flats close to the sediment-delivering tidal inlet are not likely to disappear, because there the balance between supply and erosion is not likely to change.

scholarly journals Determining Extreme Still Water Levels for Design and Planning Purposes Incorporating Sea Level Rise: Sydney, Australia

Atmosphere ◽  
2022 ◽  
Vol 13 (1) ◽  
pp. 95
Author(s):  
Phil J. Watson
Keyword(s):  
Sea Level Rise ◽  
Water Level ◽  
Sea Level ◽  
Tide Gauge ◽  
Water Levels ◽  
Extreme Value Analysis ◽  
Tide Gauge Record ◽  
Value Analysis ◽  
Mean Sea Level ◽  
The Impact

This paper provides an Extreme Value Analysis (EVA) of the hourly water level record at Fort Denison dating back to 1915 to understand the statistical likelihood of the combination of high predicted tides and the more dynamic influences that can drive ocean water levels higher at the coast. The analysis is based on the Peaks-Over-Threshold (POT) method using a fitted Generalised Pareto Distribution (GPD) function to estimate extreme hourly heights above mean sea level. The analysis highlights the impact of the 1974 East Coast Low event and rarity of the associated measured water level above mean sea level at Sydney, with an estimated return period exceeding 1000 years. Extreme hourly predictions are integrated with future projections of sea level rise to provide estimates of relevant still water levels at 2050, 2070 and 2100 for a range of return periods (1 to 1000 years) for use in coastal zone management, design, and sea level rise adaptation planning along the NSW coastline. The analytical procedures described provide a step-by-step guide for practitioners on how to develop similar baseline information from any long tide gauge record and the associated limitations and key sensitivities that must be understood and appreciated in applying EVA.

scholarly journals Future Response of the Wadden Sea Tidal Basins to Relative Sea-Level rise—An Aggregated Modelling Approach

Water ◽  
2019 ◽  
Vol 11 (10) ◽  
pp. 2198 ◽  
Author(s):  
Lodder ◽  
Wang ◽  
Elias ◽  
van der Spek ◽  
de Looff ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Sea Level Rise ◽  
Sea Level ◽  
Wadden Sea ◽  
Dynamic Equilibrium ◽  
Tidal Inlet ◽  
Scale Model ◽  
Tidal Basin ◽  
Critical Limit ◽  
Tidal Basins ◽  
Rise Rate

Climate change, and especially the associated acceleration of sea-level rise, forms a serious threat to the Wadden Sea. The Wadden Sea contains the world’s largest coherent intertidal flat area and it is known that these flats can drown when the rate of sea-level rise exceeds a critical limit. As a result, the intertidal flats would then be permanently inundated, seriously affecting the ecological functioning of the system. The determination of this critical limit and the modelling of the transient process of how a tidal basin responds to accelerated sea-level rise is of critical importance. In this contribution we revisit the modelling of the response of the Wadden Sea tidal basins to sea-level rise using a basin scale morphological model (aggregated scale morphological interaction between tidal basin and adjacent coast, ASMITA). Analysis using this aggregated scale model shows that the critical rate of sea-level rise is not merely influenced by the morphological equilibrium and the morphological time scale, but also depends on the grain size distribution of sediment in the tidal inlet system. As sea-level rises, there is a lag in the morphological response, which means that the basin will be deeper than the systems morphological equilibrium. However, so long as the rate of sea-level rise is constant and below a critical limit, this offset becomes constant and a dynamic equilibrium is established. This equilibrium deviation as well as the time needed to achieve the dynamic equilibrium increase non-linearly with increasing rates of sea-level rise. As a result, the response of a tidal basin to relatively fast sea-level rise is similar, no matter if the sea-level rise rate is just below, equal or above the critical limit. A tidal basin will experience a long process of ‘drowning’ when sea-level rise rate exceeds about 80% of the critical limit. The insights from the present study can be used to improve morphodynamic modelling of tidal basin response to accelerating sea-level rise and are useful for sustainable management of tidal inlet systems.

scholarly journals Quantifying the impact of basin dynamics on the regional sea level rise in the Black Sea

Ocean Science ◽  
2017 ◽  
Vol 13 (3) ◽  
pp. 443-452 ◽  
Author(s):  
Arseny A. Kubryakov ◽  
Sergey V. Stanichny ◽  
Denis L. Volkov
Keyword(s):  
Sea Level Rise ◽  
Sea Level ◽  
Black Sea ◽  
Satellite Altimetry ◽  
Tide Gauge ◽  
The Black Sea ◽  
Southeastern Part ◽  
Mean Sea Level ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Dynamic Sea Level

Abstract. Satellite altimetry measurements show that the magnitude of the Black Sea sea level trends is spatially uneven. While the basin-mean sea level rise from 1993 to 2014 was about 3.15 mm yr−1, the local rates of sea level rise varied from 1.5–2.5 mm yr−1 in the central part to 3.5–3.8 mm yr−1 at the basin periphery and over the northwestern shelf and to 5 mm yr−1 in the southeastern part of the sea. We show that the observed spatial differences in the dynamic sea level (anomaly relative to the basin-mean) are caused by changes in the large- and mesoscale dynamics of the Black Sea. First, a long-term intensification of the cyclonic wind curl over the Black Sea, observed in 1993–2014, strengthened divergence in the center of the basin and led to the rise of the sea level in coastal and shelf areas and a lowering in the basin's interior. Second, an extension of the Batumi anticyclone to the west resulted in  ∼  1.2 mm yr−1 higher rates of sea level rise in the southeastern part of the sea. Further, we demonstrate that the large-scale dynamic sea level variability in the Black Sea can be successfully reconstructed using the wind curl obtained from an atmospheric reanalysis. This allows for the correction of historical tide gauge records for dynamic effects in order to derive more accurate estimates of the basin-mean sea level change in the past, prior to the satellite altimetry era.

scholarly journals The significance of coastal bathymetry representation for modelling the tidal response to mean sea level rise in the German Bight

Ocean Science ◽  
2020 ◽  
Vol 16 (1) ◽  
pp. 31-44 ◽  
Author(s):  
Caroline Rasquin ◽  
Rita Seiffert ◽  
Benno Wachler ◽  
Norbert Winkel
Keyword(s):  
Sea Level Rise ◽  
Sea Level ◽  
North Sea ◽  
German Bight ◽  
Coastal Areas ◽  
Tidal Dynamics ◽  
Mean Sea Level ◽  
The North ◽  
The North Sea ◽  
The Impact

Abstract. Due to climate change an accelerated mean sea level rise is expected. One key question for the development of adaptation measures is how mean sea level rise affects tidal dynamics in shelf seas such as the North Sea. Owing to its low-lying coastal areas, the German Bight (located in the southeast of the North Sea) will be especially affected. Numerical hydrodynamic models help to understand how mean sea level rise changes tidal dynamics. Models cannot adequately represent all processes in overall detail. One limiting factor is the resolution of the model grid. In this study we investigate which role the representation of the coastal bathymetry plays when analysing the response of tidal dynamics to mean sea level rise. Using a shelf model including the whole North Sea and a high-resolution hydrodynamic model of the German Bight we investigate the changes in M2 amplitude due to a mean sea level rise of 0.8 and 10 m. The shelf model and the German Bight Model react in different ways. In the simulations with a mean sea level rise of 0.8 m the M2 amplitude in the shelf model generally increases in the region of the German Bight. In contrast, the M2 amplitude in the German Bight Model increases only in some coastal areas and decreases in the northern part of the German Bight. In the simulations with a mean sea level rise of 10 m the M2 amplitude increases in both models with largely similar spatial patterns. In two case studies we adjust the German Bight Model in order to more closely resemble the shelf model. We find that a different resolution of the bathymetry results in different energy dissipation changes in response to mean sea level rise. Our results show that the resolution of the bathymetry especially in flat intertidal areas plays a crucial role for modelling the impact of mean sea level rise.

Estimating global mean sea-level rise and its uncertainties by 2100 and 2300 from expert assessment

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Benjamin Horton ◽  
Nicole Khan ◽  
Niamh Cahill ◽  
Janice Lee ◽  
Tim Shaw ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Sea Level Rise ◽  
Sea Level ◽  
Exceedance Probability ◽  
Mean Sea Level ◽  
Mitigation And Adaptation ◽  
Climate Change Responses ◽  
Global Mean Sea Level ◽  
Original Survey ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Global Mean

<p>Sea-level rise projections and knowledge of their uncertainties are vital to make informed mitigation and adaptation decisions. To elicit expert judgments from members of the scientific community regarding future global mean sea-level (GMSL) rise and its uncertainties, we repeated a survey originally conducted five years ago. Under Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) 2.6, 106 experts projected a likely (at least 66% probability) GMSL rise of 0.30–0.65 m by 2100, and 0.54–2.15 m by 2300, relative to 1986–2005. Under RCP 8.5, the same experts projected a likely GMSL rise of 0.63–1.32 m by 2100, and 1.67–5.61 m by 2300. Expert projections for 2100 are similar to those from the original survey, although the projection for 2300 has extended tails and is higher than the original survey. Experts give a likelihood of 42% (original survey) and 45% (current survey) that under the high emissions scenario GMSL rise will exceed the upper bound (0.98 m) of the likely (i.e. an exceedance probability of 17%) range estimated by the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Responses to open-ended questions suggest that the increases in upper-end estimates and uncertainties arose from recent influential studies about the impact of marine ice cliff instability on the meltwater contribution to GMSL rise from the Antarctic Ice Sheet.</p>

scholarly journals Morphodynamic development and sediment budget of the Dutch Wadden Sea over the last century

2012 ◽  
Vol 91 (3) ◽  
pp. 293-310 ◽  
Author(s):  
E.P.L. Elias ◽  
A.J.F. van der Spek ◽  
Z.B. Wang ◽  
J. de Ronde
Keyword(s):  
Sea Level Rise ◽  
Sea Level ◽  
Wadden Sea ◽  
Control Measures ◽  
Tidal Basin ◽  
Sediment Volume ◽  
Tidal Basins ◽  
Present Rate ◽  
Continuous Sedimentation ◽  
Equilibrium Morphology

AbstractThe availability of nearly 100 years of bathymetric measurements allows the analysis of the morphodynamic evolution of the Dutch Wadden Sea under rising sea level and increasing human constraint. The historically observed roll-over mechanisms of landward barrier and coastline retreat cannot be sustained naturally due to numerous erosion control measures that have fixed the tidal basin and barrier dimensions. Nevertheless, the large continuous sedimentation in the tidal basins (nearly 600 million m3), the retained inlets and the similar channel-shoal characteristics of the basins during the observation period indicate that the Wadden Sea is resilient to anthropogenic influence, and can import sediment volumes even larger than those needed to compensate the present rate of sea-level rise. The largest sedimentation occurs in the Western Wadden Sea, where the influence of human intervention is dominant. The large infilling rates in closed-off channels, and along the basin shoreline, rather than a gradual increase in channel flat heights, render it likely that this sedimentation is primarily a response to the closure of the Zuiderzee and not an adaptation to sea-level rise. Most of the sediments were supplied by the ebb-tidal deltas. It is, however, unlikely that the sediment volume needed to reach a new equilibrium morphology in the Western Wadden Sea can be delivered by the remaining ebb-tidal deltas alone.

scholarly journals The significance of coastal bathymetry representation for modelling the tidal response to mean sea level rise in the German Bight

2019 ◽  
Author(s):  
Caroline Rasquin ◽  
Rita Seiffert ◽  
Benno Wachler ◽  
Norbert Winkel
Keyword(s):  
Sea Level Rise ◽  
Sea Level ◽  
North Sea ◽  
German Bight ◽  
Coastal Areas ◽  
Tidal Dynamics ◽  
Mean Sea Level ◽  
The North ◽  
The North Sea ◽  
The Impact

Abstract. Due to climate change an accelerated mean sea level rise is expected. One key question for the development of adaptation measures is how mean sea level rise affects tidal dynamics in shelf seas such as the North Sea. Owing to its flat coastal areas, especially the German Bight (located in the south-east of the North Sea) will be affected. Numerical hydrodynamic models help to understand how mean sea level rise changes tidal dynamics. By definition models cannot represent all processes in overall detail. One limiting factor is the resolution of the model grid. In this study we investigate which role the representation of the coastal bathymetry plays when analysing the response of tidal dynamics to mean sea level rise. Using a shelf model including the whole North Sea and a high-resolution hydrodynamic model of the German Bight we investigate the changes in M2 amplitude due to a mean sea level rise of 0.8 m and 10 m. To the mean sea level rise of 0.8 m the shelf model and the German Bight Model react in different ways. In the shelf model the M2 amplitude generally increases in the region of the German Bight. In contrast, the M2 amplitude in the German Bight Model increases only in some coastal areas and decreases in the northern part of the German Bight. In two case studies we adjust the German Bight Model in order to more closely resemble the shelf model. We find that a different resolution of the bathymetry results in different energy dissipation changes in response to mean sea level rise. Our results show that the resolution of the bathymetry especially in flat intertidal areas plays a crucial role for modelling the impact of mean sea level rise in the order of 1 m. For higher mean sea level rise scenarios (10 m) the resolution of the bathymetry is less important.

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