scholarly journals Regions at Risk: Predicting Conflict Zones in African Insurgencies

2016 ◽  
Vol 5 (3) ◽  
pp. 447-465 ◽  
Author(s):  
Sebastian Schutte

A method for predicting conflict zones in civil wars based on point process models is presented in this paper. Instead of testing the validity of specific theoretical conjectures about the determinants of violence in a causal framework, this paper builds on classic literature and a wide body of recent studies to predict conflict zones based on a series of geographic conditions. Using an innovative cross-validation design, the study shows that the quantitative research program on the micro-foundations of violence in civil conflict has crafted generalizable insights permitting out-of-sample predictions of conflict zones. The study region is delimited to ten countries in Sub-Saharan Africa that experienced full-blown insurgencies in the post-Cold War era.

Author(s):  
Manuel Vogt

This chapter provides both quantitative and qualitative evidence from post–Cold War sub-Saharan Africa for how ethnic organizations affect outcomes of equality and peace in decolonized states. It first addresses the group-level relationship between ethnic organizations and ethnic inequality. These analyses show that groups that are politically mobilized through an ethnic party are more likely to become politically dominant than groups that lack the infrastructural power that such parties provide. The following part then moves to the systemic level to analyze the effect of group mobilization on the risk of ethnic civil conflict. The results reveal that it is the concurrence of group mobilization and ethnic inequality that makes the outbreak of violent conflict most likely in Africa’s decolonized states.


2021 ◽  
Vol 18 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Claudious Chikozho ◽  
Emmanuel Sekyere ◽  
Akanganngang Joseph Asitik

While empowerment of the youth in Ghana could enable them to make a more meaningful contribution to the economy, a myriad of challenges faces the youth during their transition from school into the employment sector and limits the realisation of their full potential. As a result, the recent and significant increase in the size of the youth population in Ghana cannot justifiably be romanticised as an obvious stepping stone towards the realisation of a demographic dividend. In this study, qualitative and quantitative research methods were deployed to carry out a cross-sectional survey that enabled a detailed exploration of the main challenges and opportunities facing the youth in Ghana. Some of the options for enabling greater youth empowerment in the country were also identified. The study established that unemployment, skills limitations, lack of access to finance, and poorly coordinated institutional structures for implementing youth empowerment policies and programmes are major barriers to youth empowerment in Ghana. We conclude that there is a need for more targeted interventions that address these challenges and leverage any evident opportunities available for increased youth empowerment before Ghana can confidently expect to reap a demographic dividend.


Author(s):  
Rebecca Tapscott

Although militias have received increasing scholarly attention, the concept itself remains contested by those who study it. Why? And how does this impact contemporary scholarship on political violence? To answer these questions, we can focus on the field of militia studies in post–Cold War sub-Saharan Africa, an area where militia studies have flourished in the past several decades. Virtually all scholars of militias in post–Cold War Africa describe militias as fluid and changing such that they defy easy definition. As a result, scholars offer complex descriptors that incorporate both descriptive and analytic elements, thereby offering nuanced explanations for the role of militias in violent conflict. Yet the ongoing tension between accurate description and analytic definition has also produced a body of literature that is diffuse and internally inconsistent, in which scholars employ conflicting definitions of militias, different data sources, and often incompatible methods of analysis. As a result, militia studies yield few externally valid comparative insights and have limited analytic power. The cumulative effect is a schizophrenic field in which one scholar’s militia is another’s rebel group, local police force, or common criminal. The resulting incoherence fragments scholarship on political violence and can have real-world policy implications. This is particularly true in high-stakes environments of armed conflict, where being labeled a “militia” can lead to financial support and backing in some circumstances or make one a target to be eliminated in others. To understand how militia studies has been sustained as a fragmented field, this article offers a new typology of definitional approaches. The typology shows that scholars use two main tools: offering a substantive claim as to what militias are or a negative claim based on what militias are not and piggy-backing on other concepts to either claim that militias are derivative of or distinct from them. These approaches illustrate how scholars combine descriptive and analytic approaches to produce definitions that sustain the field as fragmented and internally contradictory. Yet despite the contradictions that characterize the field, scholarship reveals a common commitment to using militias to understand the organization of (legitimate) violence. This article sketches a possible approach to organize the field of militia studies around the institutionalization of violence, such that militias would be understood as a product of the arrangement of violence. Such an approach would both allow studies of militias to place their ambiguity and fluidity at the center of analyses while offering a pathway forward for comparative studies.


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