Turning Out to Vote: The Costs of Finding and Getting to the Polling Place

2011 ◽  
Vol 105 (1) ◽  
pp. 115-134 ◽  
Author(s):  
HENRY E. BRADY ◽  
JOHN E. MCNULTY
Keyword(s):  
Los Angeles ◽  
Voter Turnout ◽  
Los Angeles County ◽  
Natural Experiment ◽  
Search Costs ◽  
Percentage Points ◽  
Absentee Voting

Could changing the locations of polling places affect the outcome of an election by increasing the costs of voting for some and decreasing them for others? The consolidation of voting precincts in Los Angeles County during California's 2003 gubernatorial recall election provides a natural experiment for studying how changing polling places influences voter turnout. Overall turnout decreased by a substantial 1.85 percentage points: A drop in polling place turnout of 3.03 percentage points was partially offset by an increase in absentee voting of 1.18 percentage points. Both transportation and search costs caused these changes. Although there is no evidence that the Los Angeles Registrar of Voters changed more polling locations for those registered with one party than for those registered with another, the changing of polling places still had a small partisan effect because those registered as Democrats were more sensitive to changes in costs than those registered as Republicans. The effects were small enough to allay worries about significant electoral consequences in this instance (e.g., the partisan effect might be decisive in only about one in two hundred contested House elections), but large enough to make it possible for someone to affect outcomes by more extensive manipulation of polling place locations.

Social Capital and Voter Turnout: Evidence from Saint's Day Fiestas in Mexico

2012 ◽  
Vol 44 (1) ◽  
pp. 41-59 ◽  
Author(s):  
Matthew D. Atkinson ◽  
Anthony Fowler
Keyword(s):  
Social Capital ◽  
Causal Relationship ◽  
Voter Turnout ◽  
Natural Experiment ◽  
Omitted Variables ◽  
Reverse Causation ◽  
Policy Makers ◽  
Community Activity ◽  
Community Activities ◽  
Percentage Points

Social capital and community activity are thought to increase voter turnout, but reverse causation and omitted variables may bias the results of previous studies. This article exploits saint's day fiestas in Mexico as a natural experiment to test this causal relationship. Saint's day fiestas provide temporary but large shocks to the connectedness and trust within a community, and the timing of these fiestas is quasi-random. For both cross-municipality and within-municipality estimates, saint's day fiestas occurring near an election decrease turnout by 2.5 to 3.5 percentage points. So community activities that generate social capital can inhibit political participation. These findings may give pause to scholars and policy makers who assume that such community activity and social capital will improve the performance of democracy.

Election Administration and the Pure Effect of Voter Registration on Turnout

2011 ◽  
Vol 66 (1) ◽  
pp. 77-90 ◽  
Author(s):  
Barry C. Burden ◽  
Jacob R. Neiheisel
Keyword(s):  
Voter Turnout ◽  
Natural Experiment ◽  
Voter Registration ◽  
Policy Makers ◽  
Closing Date ◽  
Election Administration ◽  
Administrative Capacity ◽  
Local Election ◽  
Percentage Points ◽  
Negative Effect

Voter registration is thought to have a substantial negative effect on American voter turnout. The authors clarify this understanding in two ways. First, using a natural experiment in Wisconsin, they estimate the pure effect of registration, stripped of aspects such as the closing date. Registration lowers turnout by about 2 percentage points. Second, the authors argue that administrative capacities of local election officials are important moderators of how much registration affects turnout. Municipalities with less capacity are associated with bigger decreases in turnout. Researchers and policy makers should consider administrative capacity as a component in the equal application of voting laws.

Driving Saints to Sin: How Increasing the Difficulty of Voting Dissuades Even the Most Motivated Voters

2009 ◽  
Vol 17 (4) ◽  
pp. 435-455 ◽  
Author(s):  
John E. McNulty ◽  
Conor M. Dowling ◽  
Margaret H. Ariotti
Keyword(s):  
New York ◽  
Voter Turnout ◽  
Natural Experiment ◽  
New York State ◽  
Local Elections ◽  
Political Methodology ◽  
York State ◽  
Cost Cutting ◽  
Percentage Points ◽  
Naturalistic Setting

The consolidation of polling places in the Vestal Central School District in New York State during the district's 2006 budget referendum provides a naturalistic setting to study the effects of polling consolidation on voter turnout on an electorate quite distinct from previous work by Brady and McNulty (2004, The costs of voting: Evidence from a natural experiment. Presented at the Annual Meeting of the Society for Political Methodology, Palo Alto, CA). In particular, voters in local elections are highly motivated and therefore might be thought to be less affected by poll consolidation. Nevertheless, through a matching analysis we find that polling consolidation decreases voter turnout substantially, by about seven percentage points, even among this electorate, suggesting that even habitual voters can be dissuaded from going to the polls. This finding has implications for how election administrators ought to handle cost-cutting measures like consolidation.

scholarly journals Universal Mail Ballot Delivery Boosts Turnout: The Causal Effects of Sending Mail Ballots to All Registered Voters

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
R. Michael Alvarez ◽  
Yimeng Li
Keyword(s):  
Los Angeles ◽  
Voter Turnout ◽  
Los Angeles County ◽  
Regression Discontinuity ◽  
Causal Effects ◽  
Party Affiliation ◽  
American States ◽  
Regression Discontinuity Designs ◽  
Registered Voters ◽  
Legislative Districts

Some American states have transitioned to universal voting-by-mail, where all registered voters receive a ballot in the mail. While this practice was growing in popularity prior to the 2020 general election, universal voting-by-mail was suddenly used in a larger number of states due to the COVID-19 pandemic. In this paper, we utilize a unique situation in which registered voters in some legislative districts in Los Angeles County were subjected to universal voting-by-mail in the March 2020 primary, while most of the rest of the Los Angeles County electorate was not. Using difference-in-difference and regression discontinuity designs, we estimate the causal effects of universal voting-by-mail on voter turnout and on who votes. Our results indicate that voter turnout increased by around 3\% for voters who do not automatically receive a ballot in the mail otherwise, and the increase is larger for registered partisan voters than those without a party affiliation.

scholarly journals Municipal drinking water and cryptosporidiosis among persons with AIDS in Los Angeles County

1994 ◽  
Vol 113 (2) ◽  
pp. 313-320 ◽  
Author(s):  
F. Sorvillo ◽  
L. E. Lieb ◽  
B. Nahlen ◽  
J. Miller ◽  
L. Mascola ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Drinking Water ◽  
Los Angeles ◽  
Los Angeles County ◽  
Natural Experiment ◽  
Aids Patients ◽  
Water Service ◽  
Time Period ◽  
Service Areas ◽  
Acquired Immunodeficiency ◽  
Immunodeficiency Syndrome

SUMMARYTo assess unfiltered drinking water as a source of cryptosporidium infection in patients with the acquired immunodeficiency syndrome (AIDS) the prevalence of cryptosporidiosis among persons with AIDS in Los Angeles County was assessed by water service area. One water distributor, serving approximately 60% of the county's residents (area B), has consistently employed filtration. The other company, which serves the remainder of the county (area A), did not institute nitration until mid-December 1986. This difference provided a ‘natural experiment ’ in which to assess the effect of municipal water filtration on the level of cryptosporidiosis among persons with AIDS. The prevalence of cryptosporidiosis among AIDS patients was compared for the two water service areas for the time period (1983–6) preceding the implementation of filtration in area A. From 1983 to 1986 the age-standardized prevalence of cryptosporidiosis among AIDS patients was 32% lower in area A (4·2%), which received unfiltered water, than in area B (6·2%). Following addition of filtration in area A, the prevalence of cryptosporidiosis among AIDS patients decreased by 20%; however, a decline, of 47%, was also observed in area B. The similar baseline levels of cryptosporidiosis and the corresponding post-filtration decline in both areas suggest that filtration had no effect on levels of cryptosporidiosis among persons with AIDS. Thus it does not appear that municipal drinking water is an important risk factor for cryptosporidiosis in AIDS patients residing in Los Angeles County.

scholarly journals The Effect of Electoral Systems on Voter Turnout: Evidence from a Natural Experiment

2015 ◽  
Vol 5 (4) ◽  
pp. 689-710 ◽  
Author(s):  
Carlos Sanz
Keyword(s):  
Population Size ◽  
Voter Turnout ◽  
Natural Experiment ◽  
Regression Discontinuity ◽  
Electoral Systems ◽  
Proportional Representation ◽  
Institutional Framework ◽  
Local Elections ◽  
Regression Discontinuity Design ◽  
Percentage Points

I exploit the unique institutional framework of Spanish local elections, where municipalities follow different electoral systems depending on their population size, as mandated by a national law. Using a regression discontinuity design, I compare turnout under closed list proportional representation and under an open list, plurality-at-large system where voters can vote for individual candidates from the same or different party-lists. I find that the open list system increases turnout by between 1 and 2 percentage points. The results suggest that open list systems, which introduce competition both across and within parties, are conducive to more voter turnout.

Getting Out the Vote among Asian Americans in Los Angeles County: The Effects of Phone Canvassing

2004 ◽  
Vol 2 (2) ◽  
pp. 49-66 ◽  
Author(s):  
Janelle Wong
Keyword(s):  
Treatment Group ◽  
Los Angeles ◽  
Asian Americans ◽  
Asian American ◽  
Voter Turnout ◽  
Los Angeles County ◽  
Policy Implications ◽  
Control Group ◽  
Voter Mobilization ◽  
The Difference

Asian Americans are the fastest growing segment of the population yet have one of the lowest voter turnouts. The article provides some explanation why this is so, and political mobilization is one of the causes given. There is an experimental voter mobilization conducted in high-density Asian American communities in Los Angeles County, calling the treatment group to encourage them to vote. The difference between the control group and the treatment group is explained. The purpose of the experiment is to understand the political behavior of Asian Americans, a group who exhibit a lower voter turnout. The methods employed allow researches to accurately measure the effectiveness of mobilization on voter turnout. Another goal of the article is to figure out strategies to harness limited sources within a community to mobilize Asian Americans to vote. A list of the findings of the study and policy implications is discussed.

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