Universal Mail Ballot Delivery Boosts Turnout: The Causal Effects of Sending Mail Ballots to All Registered Voters

Some American states have transitioned to universal voting-by-mail, where all registered voters receive a ballot in the mail. While this practice was growing in popularity prior to the 2020 general election, universal voting-by-mail was suddenly used in a larger number of states due to the COVID-19 pandemic. In this paper, we utilize a unique situation in which registered voters in some legislative districts in Los Angeles County were subjected to universal voting-by-mail in the March 2020 primary, while most of the rest of the Los Angeles County electorate was not. Using difference-in-difference and regression discontinuity designs, we estimate the causal effects of universal voting-by-mail on voter turnout and on who votes. Our results indicate that voter turnout increased by around 3\% for voters who do not automatically receive a ballot in the mail otherwise, and the increase is larger for registered partisan voters than those without a party affiliation.

Measuring the Rural Continuum in Political Science

Recent accounts of American politics focus heavily on urban–rural gaps in political behavior. Rural politics research is growing but may be stymied by difficulties defining and measuring which Americans qualify as “rural.” We discuss theoretical and empirical challenges to studying rurality. Much existing research has been inattentive to conceptualization and measurement of rural geography. We focus on improving estimation of different notions of rurality and provide a new dataset on urban–rural measurement of U.S. state legislative districts. We scrutinize construct validity and measurement in two studies of rural politics. First, we replicate Flavin and Franko (2020, Political Behavior, 845–864) to demonstrate empirical results may be sensitive to measurement of rural residents. Second, we use Mummolo and Nall’s (2017, The Journal of Politics, 45–59) survey data to show rural self-identification is not well-captured with objective, place-based classifications, suggesting a rethinking of theoretical and empirical accounts of rural identity. We conclude with strategies for operationalizing rurality using readily available tools.

Evaluating Legislative Districts Using Measures of Partisan Bias and Simulations

A well-developed body of research offers ways to measure the partisan advantages that result from legislative districting. Although useful to researchers and legal practitioners, those studies also suffer from theoretical, empirical, and legal limitations. In this essay, we review measures of partisan bias and methods for both simulating election results under existing maps and simulating hypothetical maps. We start by describing the concept of partisan bias and how it has been measured. Then, we turn to new simulation methods that generate hypothetical election results or districts to judge the fairness of a map. While both kinds of evaluation are useful, we point to some unresolved questions and areas for future research.

Measuring the circularity of congressional districts

Shape analysis has special importance in the detection of manipulated redistricting, which is called gerrymandering. In most of the US states, this process is made by non-independent actors and often causes debates about partisan manipulation. The somewhat ambiguous concept of compactness is a standard criterion for legislative districts. In the literature, circularity is widely used as a measure of compactness, since it is a natural requirement for a district to be as circular as possible. In this paper, we introduce a novel and parameter-free circularity measure that is based on Hu moment invariants. This new measure provides a powerful tool to detect districts with abnormal shapes. We examined some districts of Arkansas, Iowa, Kansas, and Utah over several consecutive periods and redistricting plans, and also compared the results with classical circularity indexes. We found that the fall of the average circularity value of the new measure indicates potential gerrymandering.

Measuring Constituency Ideology Using Bayesian Universal Kriging

In this article, we develop and make available measures of public ideology in 2010 for the 50 American states, 435 congressional districts, and state legislative districts. We do this using the geospatial statistical technique of Bayesian universal kriging, which uses the locations of survey respondents, as well as population covariate values, to predict ideology for simulated citizens in districts across the country. In doing this, we improve on past research that uses the kriging technique for forecasting public opinion by incorporating Alaska and Hawaii, making the important distinction between ZIP codes and ZIP Code Tabulation Areas, and introducing more precise data from the 2010 Census. We show that our estimates of ideology at the state, congressional district, and state legislative district levels appropriately predict the ideology of legislators elected from these districts, serving as an external validity check.

Third Parties

Since the 1830s the American two-party system has included other minor parties. This essay describes eleven of them, beginning with the Anti-Masonic Party and ending with Ross Perot’s Reform Party. The most noteworthy of the group include the American (Know-Nothing), Free Soil, People’s (Populist), Progressive, American Independent, and Reform parties. Third parties in America have always suffered from structural arrangements that included single-member legislative districts and “winner take all” election rules, and yet they have persisted. Between the 1830s and 1890s most parties grew out of populistic movements that espoused an egalitarian ethos and railed against entrenched elites. Around 1900, movement-based parties began to give way to “interest group” organizations, but in the twentieth century three third parties led by strong individuals (Theodore Roosevelt [1912], George C. Wallace [1968], and H. Ross Perot [1992]) received 27, 13, and 19 percent of the popular vote for president, respectively.

Polarization

The 2016 election of Donald J. Trump invoked a time for reflection about the state of American politics and its deep ideological, cultural, racial, regional, and economic divisions. But one aspect that the contemporary discussions often miss is that these fissures have been opening over several decades and are deeply rooted in the structure of American politics and society. Nolan McCarty's Polarization: What Everyone Needs to Know® is an accessible introduction to polarization in America. McCarty takes readers through what scholars know and don't know about the origins, development, and implications of our rising political conflicts, delving into social, economic, and geographic determinants of polarization in the United States. While the current political climate makes it clear that extreme views are becoming more popular, McCarty also argues that, contrary to popular belief, the 2016 election was a natural outgrowth of 40 years of polarized politics, instead of a significant break with the past. He explains the factors that have created this state of affairs, including gerrymandered legislative districts, partisan primary nomination systems, and our private campaign finance system. He also considers the potential of major reforms such as instating proportional representation or single-transferable voting to remedy extreme polarization. A concise overview of a complex and crucial topic in US politics, this book is for anyone wanting to understand how to repair the cracks in our system.

Carving Out Legislative Districts

Congressional districts are reapportioned every ten years. In recent years there has been a great deal of criticism of overt partisanship and even charges of racial gerrymandering. What have the courts said about redistricting plans, and is there a better, fairer way to create...

EVALUASI KUALITAS PENYELENGGARAAN BIMTEK PENINGKATAN KAPASITAS ANGGOTA DPRD KAB/KOTA/PROVINSI

The aim of the research is to evaluative and obtain empirical data about the quality of organizing " capacity building technical guidance of Member of Legislative districts/cities/provinces" organized by UIA-LPPM. The method of study using surveys with the target population is all participants technical guidance 2018/2019 during the period (6 months) that there were 6 times technical guidance activities. Sampling is done in a simple random sample, the amount of 50% of the total activities of the technical guidance, namely: three (3) events from event 6 times technical guidance as many as 86 people. Data analysis using SPSS program with a descriptive analysis. The research results showed that the participants opinion technical guidance provide that the quality of capacity building organization of Member of Legislative districts/cities/provinces " is a great fit with the needs = 25%; appropriate with needs = 69%; fit =; less appropriate = 0% and highly inappropriate = 0 %. The average opinion of the respondents give score = 4.1222 which means the quality of organizing "capacity building technical guidance of Member of Legislative districts/cities/provinces" in accordance with the needs of the participants technical guidance"; this needs to be maintained the quality of its commissioning and when necessary be present again.