scholarly journals Universal Mail Ballot Delivery Boosts Turnout: The Causal Effects of Sending Mail Ballots to All Registered Voters

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
R. Michael Alvarez ◽  
Yimeng Li
Keyword(s):  
Los Angeles ◽  
Voter Turnout ◽  
Los Angeles County ◽  
Regression Discontinuity ◽  
Causal Effects ◽  
Party Affiliation ◽  
American States ◽  
Regression Discontinuity Designs ◽  
Registered Voters ◽  
Legislative Districts

Some American states have transitioned to universal voting-by-mail, where all registered voters receive a ballot in the mail. While this practice was growing in popularity prior to the 2020 general election, universal voting-by-mail was suddenly used in a larger number of states due to the COVID-19 pandemic. In this paper, we utilize a unique situation in which registered voters in some legislative districts in Los Angeles County were subjected to universal voting-by-mail in the March 2020 primary, while most of the rest of the Los Angeles County electorate was not. Using difference-in-difference and regression discontinuity designs, we estimate the causal effects of universal voting-by-mail on voter turnout and on who votes. Our results indicate that voter turnout increased by around 3\% for voters who do not automatically receive a ballot in the mail otherwise, and the increase is larger for registered partisan voters than those without a party affiliation.

scholarly journals Bounds on treatment effects in regression discontinuity designs with a manipulated running variable

2020 ◽  
Vol 11 (3) ◽  
pp. 839-870 ◽  
Author(s):  
François Gerard ◽  
Miikka Rokkanen ◽  
Christoph Rothe
Keyword(s):  
Unemployment Insurance ◽  
General Model ◽  
Regression Discontinuity ◽  
Causal Effects ◽  
Potential Outcomes ◽  
Binary Decision ◽  
Sharp Bounds ◽  
Wide Range ◽  
Regression Discontinuity Designs ◽  
Disincentive Effect

The key assumption in regression discontinuity analysis is that the distribution of potential outcomes varies smoothly with the running variable around the cutoff. In many empirical contexts, however, this assumption is not credible; and the running variable is said to be manipulated in this case. In this paper, we show that while causal effects are not point identified under manipulation, one can derive sharp bounds under a general model that covers a wide range of empirical patterns. The extent of manipulation, which determines the width of the bounds, is inferred from the data in our setup. Our approach therefore does not require making a binary decision regarding whether manipulation occurs or not, and can be used to deliver manipulation‐robust inference in settings where manipulation is conceivable, but not obvious from the data. We use our methods to study the disincentive effect of unemployment insurance on (formal) reemployment in Brazil, and show that our bounds remain informative, despite the fact that manipulation has a sizable effect on our estimates of causal parameters.

Turning Out to Vote: The Costs of Finding and Getting to the Polling Place

2011 ◽  
Vol 105 (1) ◽  
pp. 115-134 ◽  
Author(s):  
HENRY E. BRADY ◽  
JOHN E. MCNULTY
Keyword(s):  
Los Angeles ◽  
Voter Turnout ◽  
Los Angeles County ◽  
Natural Experiment ◽  
Search Costs ◽  
Percentage Points ◽  
Absentee Voting

Could changing the locations of polling places affect the outcome of an election by increasing the costs of voting for some and decreasing them for others? The consolidation of voting precincts in Los Angeles County during California's 2003 gubernatorial recall election provides a natural experiment for studying how changing polling places influences voter turnout. Overall turnout decreased by a substantial 1.85 percentage points: A drop in polling place turnout of 3.03 percentage points was partially offset by an increase in absentee voting of 1.18 percentage points. Both transportation and search costs caused these changes. Although there is no evidence that the Los Angeles Registrar of Voters changed more polling locations for those registered with one party than for those registered with another, the changing of polling places still had a small partisan effect because those registered as Democrats were more sensitive to changes in costs than those registered as Republicans. The effects were small enough to allay worries about significant electoral consequences in this instance (e.g., the partisan effect might be decisive in only about one in two hundred contested House elections), but large enough to make it possible for someone to affect outcomes by more extensive manipulation of polling place locations.

Regression discontinuity designs: a hands-on guide for practice

2021 ◽  
pp. 1-19
Author(s):  
Vicente Valentim ◽  
Ana Ruipérez Núñez ◽  
Elias Dinas
Keyword(s):  
Political Science ◽  
Applied Research ◽  
Regression Discontinuity ◽  
Causal Effects ◽  
Stepping Stone ◽  
Hands On ◽  
Regression Discontinuity Designs

Abstract Regression discontinuity (RD) designs have become increasingly popular in political science, due to their ability to showcase causal effects under weak assumptions. This paper provides an intuition-based guide for the use of the RD in applied research. After an intuitive explanation of how the method works, we provide a checklist that can help researchers understand the main robustness checks they should run, and a quick introduction to software implementing the design. We also provide a list of classic designs and examples of their application in political science. We hope this article can constitute a stepping stone from which researchers interested in RD can jump to more advanced literature; and which makes researchers not interested in implementing RDs better consumers of research employing this design.

Getting Out the Vote among Asian Americans in Los Angeles County: The Effects of Phone Canvassing

2004 ◽  
Vol 2 (2) ◽  
pp. 49-66 ◽  
Author(s):  
Janelle Wong
Keyword(s):  
Treatment Group ◽  
Los Angeles ◽  
Asian Americans ◽  
Asian American ◽  
Voter Turnout ◽  
Los Angeles County ◽  
Policy Implications ◽  
Control Group ◽  
Voter Mobilization ◽  
The Difference

Asian Americans are the fastest growing segment of the population yet have one of the lowest voter turnouts. The article provides some explanation why this is so, and political mobilization is one of the causes given. There is an experimental voter mobilization conducted in high-density Asian American communities in Los Angeles County, calling the treatment group to encourage them to vote. The difference between the control group and the treatment group is explained. The purpose of the experiment is to understand the political behavior of Asian Americans, a group who exhibit a lower voter turnout. The methods employed allow researches to accurately measure the effectiveness of mobilization on voter turnout. Another goal of the article is to figure out strategies to harness limited sources within a community to mobilize Asian Americans to vote. A list of the findings of the study and policy implications is discussed.

The Sunland Grizzly

2014 ◽  
Vol 91 (4) ◽  
pp. 56-63
Author(s):  
Josh Sides
Keyword(s):  
Los Angeles ◽  
Los Angeles County ◽  
Southern California ◽  
Grizzly Bear ◽  
Science And Art ◽  
Founding Director

In 1916, Cornelius Birket Johnson, a Los Angeles fruit farmer, killed the last known grizzly bear in Southern California and the second-to last confirmed grizzly bear in the entire state of California. Johnson was neither a sportsman nor a glory hound; he simply hunted down the animal that had been trampling through his orchard for three nights in a row, feasting on his grape harvest and leaving big enough tracks to make him worry for the safety of his wife and two young daughters. That Johnson’s quarry was a grizzly bear made his pastoral life in Big Tujunga Canyon suddenly very complicated. It also precipitated a quagmire involving a violent Scottish taxidermist, a noted California zoologist, Los Angeles museum administrators, and the pioneering mammalogist and Smithsonian curator Clinton Hart Merriam. As Frank S. Daggett, the founding director of the Los Angeles County Museum of History, Science and Art, wrote in the midst of the controversy: “I do not recollect ever meeting a case where scientists, crooks, and laymen were so inextricably mingled.” The extermination of a species, it turned out, could bring out the worst in people.

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