A RE-EXAMINATION OF LEVELS AND DIFFERENTIAL IN FERTILITY IN SOUTH AFRICA FROM RECENT EVIDENCE

2003 ◽  
Vol 35 (3) ◽  
pp. 413-431 ◽  
Author(s):  
ERIC O. UDJO
Keyword(s):  
South Africa ◽  
Population Size ◽  
Total Population ◽  
Demographic Models ◽  
Final Estimate

The final estimate of South Africa's population as of October 1996 from the first post-apartheid census by Statistics South Africa was lower (40·6 million) than expected (42 million). The expectation of a total population of 42 million was largely based on results of apartheid projections of South Africa's population. The results of the last apartheid census in South Africa in 1991 had been adjusted such that it was consistent with results modelling the population size of South Africa. The discrepancy between the final estimate of the 1996 census and that expected from the modelling described above, and the departure by Statistics South Africa from previous practice of adjusting the census results to be consistent with demographic models, has generated controversies regarding the accuracy of the final results from the 1996 census. This study re-examines levels and differential in fertility in South Africa from recent evidence in order to assess whether or not the fertility inputs in projections of South Africa's population during the apartheid era overestimated fertility.

scholarly journals Estimating the Number of Sex Workers in South Africa: Rapid Population Size Estimation

2015 ◽  
Vol 19 (S1) ◽  
pp. 3-15 ◽  
Author(s):  
Tracey L. Konstant ◽  
Jerushah Rangasami ◽  
Maria J. Stacey ◽  
Michelle L. Stewart ◽  
Coceka Nogoduka
Keyword(s):  
South Africa ◽  
Population Size ◽  
Sex Workers ◽  
Population Size Estimation ◽  
Size Estimation

scholarly journals Social structure and demography of a remnant Asian elephant Elephas maximus population and the implications for survival

Oryx ◽  
2020 ◽  
pp. 1-6
Author(s):  
Lauren J. Hale ◽  
Kun Shi ◽  
Tania C. Gilbert ◽  
Kelvin S.-H. Peh ◽  
Philip Riordan
Keyword(s):  
Social Structure ◽  
Population Size ◽  
Total Population ◽  
Camera Traps ◽  
Asian Elephant ◽  
Elephas Maximus ◽  
Effective Density ◽  
Anthropogenic Pressures ◽  
Sex Ratio Bias ◽  
Elephant Population

Abstract The Asian elephant Elephas maximus is at risk of extinction as a result of anthropogenic pressures, and remaining populations are often small and fragmented remnants, occupying a fraction of the species' former range. Once widely distributed across China, only a maximum of 245 elephants are estimated to survive across seven small populations. We assessed the Asian elephant population in Nangunhe National Nature Reserve in Lincang Prefecture, China, using camera traps during May–July 2017, to estimate the population size and structure of this genetically important population. Although detection probability was low (0.31), we estimated a total population size of c. 20 individuals, and an effective density of 0.39 elephants per km2. Social structure indicated a strong sex ratio bias towards females, with only one adult male detected within the population. Most of the elephants associated as one herd but three adult females remained separate from the herd throughout the trapping period. These results highlight the fragility of remnant elephant populations such as Nangunhe and we suggest options such as a managed metapopulation approach for their continued survival in China and more widely.

Production, Mortality, And Sustainable Yield Of Northwest Atlantic Harp Seals (Pagophilus groenlandicus)

1978 ◽  
Vol 35 (9) ◽  
pp. 1249-1261 ◽  
Author(s):  
G. H. Winters
Keyword(s):  
Population Size ◽  
Total Population ◽  
Historical Data ◽  
Maximum Sustainable Yield ◽  
Sustainable Yield ◽  
Natural Mortality ◽  
Northwest Atlantic ◽  
The Past ◽  
Relative Contribution ◽  
Pagophilus Groenlandicus

From recent and historical data the natural mortality rate of adult harp seals (Pagophilus groenlandicus) is estimated to be 0.10 which is within the range of previous estimates (0.08–0.11). New estimates of bedlamer and 0-group natural mortality rates were not significantly different from those of adult seals. Pup production estimates from survival indices agreed well with those from sequential population analyses and indicated a decline from about 350 000 animals in the early 1950s to about 310 000 animals in the early 1970s. Over the same period the 1+ population size declined from 2.5 to 1.1 million animals but has been increasing at the rate of 3%/yr since the introduction of quotas in 1972. The relative contribution of the "Front" production to total ("Front" plus Gulf) production during the past decade has fluctuated from 49 to 87%, the average of 64% being very similar to the 61% obtained previously. These fluctuations suggest some interchange between "Front" and Gulf adults and it is concluded that homing in the breeding areas is a facultative rather than obligatory aspect of seal behavior. Thus the heavier exploitation of the "Front" production is probably sufficiently diffused into the total population to avoid serious effects on "Front" production. The maximum sustainable yield of Northwest Atlantic seals harvested according to recent patterns is estimated to be 290 000 animals (80% pups) from a 1+ population size of 1.8 million animals producing 460 000 pups annually. The sustainable yield at present levels of pup production (335 000 animals) is calculated to be 220 000 animals which is substantially above the present TAC of 180 000 animals and coincides with present harvesting strategies designed to enable the seal hunt to increase slowly towards the MSY level. Key words: mortality, production, sustainable yield, population dynamics, marine mammal

scholarly journals Evaluation of dog population in an urban area of Southeastern Brazil

1997 ◽  
Vol 31 (3) ◽  
pp. 308-309 ◽  
Author(s):  
Cáris M. Nunes ◽  
Dejanira de A. Martines ◽  
Stélios Fikaris ◽  
Luzia H. Queiróz
Keyword(s):  
Population Size ◽  
Urban Area ◽  
Human Population ◽  
Total Population ◽  
Southeastern Brazil ◽  
Control Programs ◽  
Paulo State ◽  
Vaccination Campaigns ◽  
Rabies Vaccination ◽  
Size And Structure

Planning control programs, for diseases such as rabies requires information on the size and structure of the dog and cat population. In order to evaluate the dog population of the urban area of Araçatuba city, S. Paulo State, Brazil, a survey was conducted using a questionnaire to interview members of households. Eighty-eight districts were visited (37,778 houses) and the interview was possible at 77.93% of these. Human population size evaluated was 113,157 inhabitants. Houses that owned animals represented 55.2%, 26,926 of the animals concerned were dogs and 5,755 were cats. Of the dogs, 56.64% were 1-4 year olds and males represented 56.2% of the total population. Dog: person ratio was estimated at 2.8 dogs to every 10 persons, almost 3 times the ratio hitherto estimated and used in the planning of rabies vaccination campaigns.

scholarly journals Strong neutral sweeps occurring during a population contraction

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Antoine Moinet ◽  
Laurent Excoffier ◽  
Stephan Peischl
Keyword(s):  
Population Size ◽  
Selective Sweep ◽  
Fixation Time ◽  
Size Change ◽  
Similar Reduction ◽  
Demographic Models ◽  
Local Diversity ◽  
Rapid Fixation ◽  
Demographic Processes ◽  
Specific Locus

A strong reduction in diversity around a specific locus is often interpreted as a recent rapid fixation of a positively selected allele, a phenomenon called a selective sweep. Rapid fixation of neutral variants can however lead to similar reduction in local diversity, especially when the population experiences changes in population size, e.g., bottlenecks or range expansions. The fact that demographic processes can lead to signals of nucleotide diversity very similar to signals of selective sweeps is at the core of an ongoing discussion about the roles of demography and natural selection in shaping patterns of neutral variation. Here we quantitatively investigate the shape of such neutral valleys of diversity under a simple model of a single population size change, and we compare it to signals of a selective sweep. We analytically describe the expected shape of such neutral sweeps and show that selective sweep valleys of diversity are, for the same fixation time, wider than neutral valleys. On the other hand, it is always possible to parametrize our model to find a neutral valley that has the same width as a given selected valley. We apply our framework to the case of a putative selective sweep signal around the gene Quetzalcoatl in D. melanogaster and show that the valley of diversity in the vicinity of this gene is compatible with a short bottleneck scenario without selection. Our findings provide further insight in how simple demographic models can create valleys of genetic diversity that may falsely be attributed to positive selection.

scholarly journals Coalescence theory for a general class of structured populations with fast migration

2011 ◽  
Vol 43 (04) ◽  
pp. 1027-1047 ◽  
Author(s):  
O. Hössjer
Keyword(s):  
Population Size ◽  
General Class ◽  
Population Genetic ◽  
Total Population ◽  
Structured Populations ◽  
Effective Population ◽  
Constant Change ◽  
Skorokhod Topology ◽  
Age Structured ◽  
Dependency Structures

In this paper we study a general class of population genetic models where the total population is divided into a number of subpopulations or types. Migration between subpopulations is fast. Extending the results of Nordborg and Krone (2002) and Sagitov and Jagers (2005), we prove, as the total population sizeNtends to ∞, weak convergence of the joint ancestry of a given sample of haploid individuals in the Skorokhod topology towards Kingman's coalescent with a constant change of time scalec. Our framework includes age-structured models, geographically structured models, and combinations thereof. We also allow each individual to have offspring in several subpopulations, with general dependency structures between the number of offspring of various types. As a byproduct, explicit expressions for the coalescent effective population sizeN/care obtained.

scholarly journals Decline towards extinction of Mexico's vaquita porpoise ( Phocoena sinus )

2019 ◽  
Vol 6 (7) ◽  
pp. 190598 ◽  
Author(s):  
Armando M. Jaramillo-Legorreta ◽  
Gustavo Cardenas-Hinojosa ◽  
Edwyna Nieto-Garcia ◽  
Lorenzo Rojas-Bracho ◽  
Len Thomas ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Population Size ◽  
Total Population ◽  
Population Decline ◽  
Credible Interval ◽  
Critically Endangered ◽  
Posterior Mean ◽  
Bayesian Credible Interval ◽  
Independent Estimate ◽  
Rate Of Decline ◽  
Passive Acoustic

The vaquita ( Phocoena sinus ) is a small porpoise endemic to Mexico. It is listed by IUCN as Critically Endangered because of unsustainable levels of bycatch in gillnets. The population has been monitored with passive acoustic detectors every summer from 2011 to 2018; here we report results for 2017 and 2018. We combine the acoustic trends with an independent estimate of population size from 2015, and visual observations of at least seven animals in 2017 and six in 2018. Despite adoption of an emergency gillnet ban in May 2015, the estimated rate of decline remains extremely high: 48% decline in 2017 (95% Bayesian credible interval (CRI) 78% decline to 9% increase) and 47% in 2018 (95% CRI 80% decline to 13% increase). Estimated total population decline since 2011 is 98.6%, with greater than 99% probability the decline is greater than 33% yr −1 . We estimate fewer than 19 vaquitas remained as of summer 2018 (posterior mean 9, median 8, 95% CRI 6–19). From March 2016 to March 2019, 10 dead vaquitas killed in gillnets were found. The ongoing presence of illegal gillnets despite the emergency ban continues to drive the vaquita towards extinction. Immediate management action is required if the species is to be saved.

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