The Information Content of Idiosyncratic Volatility

2009 ◽  
Vol 44 (1) ◽  
pp. 1-28 ◽  
Author(s):  
George J. Jiang ◽  
Danielle Xu ◽  
Tong Yao
Keyword(s):  
Stock Returns ◽  
Information Content ◽  
Firm Growth ◽  
Predictive Power ◽  
Idiosyncratic Volatility ◽  
Market Anomalies ◽  
Future Earnings ◽  
Future Earning ◽  
Accounting Accruals ◽  
Selective Disclosure

AbstractAng, Hodrick, Xing, and Zhang (2006a) show that stocks with high idiosyncratic return volatility tend to have low future returns. This paper further documents that idiosyncratic volatility is inversely related to future earning shocks, and more importantly, that the return-predictive power of idiosyncratic volatility is induced by its information content about future earnings. We examine various explanations of the triangular relation among idiosyncratic volatility, future earning shocks, and future stock returns. Our results show that the idiosyncratic volatility anomaly is not a simple manifestation of previously documented market anomalies related to excessive extrapolation on firm growth, over-investment tendency, accounting accruals, or investor underreaction to earnings news. On the other hand, there is evidence that the idiosyncratic volatility anomaly is related to corporate selective disclosure, and the anomaly is stronger among stocks with a less sophisticated investor base.

scholarly journals The information content of US stock market factors

2020 ◽  
Vol 37 (2) ◽  
pp. 323-346
Author(s):  
Mohammed M. Elgammal ◽  
Fatma Ehab Ahmed ◽  
David G. McMillan
Keyword(s):  
Stock Market ◽  
Stock Returns ◽  
Information Content ◽  
Predictive Power ◽  
Output Growth ◽  
Economic Conditions ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Economic Information ◽  
Market Factors ◽  
The Impact

Purpose The purpose of this paper is to consider the economic information content within several popular stock market factors and to the extent to which their movements are both explained by economic variables and can explain future output growth. Design/methodology/approach Using US stock portfolios from 1964 to 2019, the authors undertake three related exercises: whether a set of common factors contain independent predictive ability for stock returns, what economic and market variables explain movements in the factors and whether stock market factors have predictive power for future output growth. Findings The results show that several of the considered factors do not contain independent information for stock returns. Further, most of these factors are neither explained by economic conditions nor they provide any predictive power for future output growth. Thus, they appear to contain very little economic content. However, the results suggest that the impact of these factors is more prominent with higher macroeconomic risk (contractionary regime). Research limitations/implications The stock market factors are more likely to reflect existing market conditions and exhibit a weaker relation with economic conditions and do not act as a window on future behavior. Practical implications Fama and French three-factor model still have better explanations for stock returns and economic information more than any other models. Originality/value This paper contributes to the literature by examining whether a selection of factors provides unique information when modelling stock returns data. It also investigates what variables can predict movements in the stock market factors. Third, it examines whether the factors exhibit a link with subsequent economic output. This should establish whether the stock market factors contain useful information for stock returns and the macroeconomy or whether the significance of the factor is a result of chance. The results in this paper should advance our understanding of asset price movement and the links between the macroeconomy and financial markets and, thus, be of interest to academics, investors and policy-makers.

scholarly journals Information leakage and informed trading around unscheduled earnings announcements

2008 ◽  
Vol 6 (2) ◽  
pp. 143-163 ◽  
Author(s):  
Campbell Heggen ◽  
Gerard Gannon
Keyword(s):  
Stock Returns ◽  
Information Content ◽  
Firm Growth ◽  
Earnings Announcements ◽  
Abnormal Returns ◽  
Information Leakage ◽  
Informed Trading ◽  
International Standards ◽  
Trading Behavior ◽  
Trading Volumes

While there has been much judicial discussion regarding the competency of Australia’s continuous disclosure regime with reference to contemporaneous international standards, there has to date been limited empirical analysis of the Australian system’s effectiveness in preventing selective disclosure and information leakage. This paper presents an empirical study of information content and trading behavior around unscheduled earnings announcements – comprising of profit upgrades, profit warnings and neutral trading statements – made by ASX-listed companies during 2004. The contention is that informed trading impacts on the stock returns and trading volumes of listed entities, and hence abnormal returns or trading volumes observed prior to an announcement provide evidence of information leakage. The paper models a range of factors that potentially influence firm disclosure practices and contribute to the level information asymmetry in the market during the pre-announcement period. Previous research has investigated the influence of firm size and information content in contributing to information leakage. This study further considers the variables of firm growth, capital structure and industry group

scholarly journals Idiosyncratic volatility, option-based measures of informed trading, and investor attention

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Hannes Mohrschladt ◽  
Judith C. Schneider
Keyword(s):  
Stock Returns ◽  
Idiosyncratic Volatility ◽  
Investor Attention ◽  
Intuitive Idea ◽  
Joint Examination ◽  
Stock Market Investors ◽  
Private Investors ◽  
High Level ◽  
Do So ◽  
Option Market

AbstractWe establish a direct link between sophisticated investors in the option market, private stock market investors, and the idiosyncratic volatility (IVol) puzzle. To do so, we employ three option-based volatility spreads and attention data from Google Trends. In line with the IVol puzzle, the volatility spreads indicate that sophisticated investors indeed consider high-IVol stocks as being overvalued. Moreover, the option measures help to distinguish overpriced from fairly priced high-IVol stocks. Thus, these measures are able to predict the IVol puzzle’s magnitude in the cross-section of stock returns. Further, we link the origin of the IVol puzzle to the trading activity of irrational private investors as the return predictability only exists among stocks that receive a high level of private investor attention. Overall, our joint examination of option and stock markets sheds light on the behavior of different investor groups and their contribution to the IVol puzzle. Thereby, our analyses support the intuitive idea that noise trading leads to mispricing, which is identified by sophisticated investors and exploited in the option market.

scholarly journals Analysis of Asset Growth Anomaly on Cross-Section Stock Returns: Evidence from Indonesia Stock Exchange

2017 ◽  
Vol 20 (1) ◽  
pp. 47
Author(s):  
Muhammad Iqbal ◽  
Buddi Wibowo
Keyword(s):  
Risk Factor ◽  
Stock Returns ◽  
Cross Section ◽  
Stock Prices ◽  
Stock Exchange ◽  
High Growth ◽  
Growth Effect ◽  
Market Anomalies ◽  
Growth Anomaly ◽  
Asset Growth

Assorted types of market anomalies occur when stock prices deviate from the prediction of classical asset pricing theories. This study aims to examine asset growth anomaly where stocks with high asset growth will be followed by low returns in the subsequent periods. This study, using Indonesia Stock Exchanges data, finds that an equally-weighted low-growth portfolio outperforms high-growth portfolio by average 0.75% per month (9% per annum), confirming existence of asset growth anomaly. The analysis is extended at individual stock-level using fixed-effect panel regression in which asset growth effect remains significant even with controlling other variables of stock return determinants. This study also explores further whether asset growth can be included as risk factor. Employing two-stage cross-section regression in Fama and Macbeth (1973), the result aligns with some prior studies that asset growth is not a new risk factor; instead the anomaly is driven by mispricing due to investors’ overreaction and psychological bias. This result imply that asset growth anomaly is general phenomenon that can be found at mostly all stock market but in Indonesia market asset growth anomaly rise from investors’ overreaction, instead of  playing as a factor of risk.

scholarly journals Information Content of Earnings Managements: Implications on Growth and Value Companies

2016 ◽  
Vol 2 (1) ◽  
pp. 47-56
Author(s):  
Windu Mulyasari ◽  
Slamet Sugiri ◽  
Heyvon Herdhayinta
Keyword(s):  
Earnings Management ◽  
Information Content ◽  
Market Price ◽  
Accounting Information ◽  
Future Earnings ◽  
Cycle Growth ◽  
Incremental Information ◽  
Growth Firms ◽  
Management Behaviors

Objective: The purpose of this study is to investigate the pattern of earnings management on growth and value companies in Indonesia. This study predicts that earnings management has information contents. Therefore, earnings management tends to degrade the quality of earnings, then affect the future profitability. This study analyzes the effect of earnings management information content to the company's future profitability. This study provides an understanding about accounting information at certain market price levels for growth and value companies. Findings: Findings of this study indicate the differences between earnings management influence on growth and value companies. The results also support the differences of relative incremental information content of earnings management on growth and value companies. The growth firms tend to do earnings management and have higher profitability compared to the value firms. The implication is that the incremental information content of earnings management on growth firms is lower than those of the value firms to predict future profitability.   Implication: The contribution of this research is to provide an in-depth review on earnings management study associated with company life cycle (growth and value), as well as  to give additional understanding about the existence of incremental information content of earnings management. Thus, firms show different earnings management behaviors and ultimately those behaviors affect the quality of profit to predict future earnings

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