PROBABILISTIC SENSITIVITY ANALYSIS IN COST-EFFECTIVENESS

1999 ◽  
Vol 15 (3) ◽  
pp. 563-572 ◽  
Author(s):  
William Whang ◽  
Jane E. Sisk ◽  
Daniel F. Heitjan ◽  
Alan J. Moskowitz
Keyword(s):  
Sensitivity Analysis ◽  
Cost Effectiveness ◽  
Probabilistic Sensitivity Analysis ◽  
Probabilistic Methods ◽  
Policy Implications ◽  
Sensitivity Analyses ◽  
Decision Analysis Model ◽  
Analysis Model ◽  
Worst Case ◽  
The Cost

Objectives: We explore the policy implications of probabilistic sensitivity analysis in cost-effectiveness analysis by applying simulation methods to a decision model.Methods: We present the multiway sensitivity analysis results of a study of the cost-effectiveness of vaccination against pneumococcal bacteremia in the elderly. We then execute a probabilistic sensitivity analysis of the cost-effectiveness ratio by specifying posterior distributions for the uncertain parameters in our decision analysis model. In order to estimate probability intervals, we rank the numerical values of the simulated incremental cost-effectiveness ratios (ICERs) to take into account preferences along the cost-effectiveness plane.Results: The 95% probability intervals for the ICER were generally much narrower than the difference between the best case and worst case results from a multiway sensitivity analysis. Although the multiway sensitivity analysis had indicated that, in the worst case, vaccination in the 85 and older age group was not acceptable from a policy standpoint, probabilistic methods indicated that the cost-effectiveness of vaccination was below $50,000 per quality-adjusted life-year in greater than 92% of the simulations and below $100,000 in greater than 95% of the simulations.Conclusions: Probabilistic methods can supplement multiway sensitivity analyses to provide a more comprehensive picture of the uncertainty associated with cost-effectiveness ratios and thereby inform policy decisions.

Meta-analysis and cost-effectiveness of second-line antiepileptic drugs for status epilepticus

Neurology ◽  
2019 ◽  
Vol 92 (20) ◽  
pp. e2339-e2348 ◽  
Author(s):  
Iván Sánchez Fernández ◽  
Marina Gaínza-Lein ◽  
Nathan Lamb ◽  
Tobias Loddenkemper
Keyword(s):  
Status Epilepticus ◽  
Cost Effectiveness ◽  
Antiepileptic Drugs ◽  
Meta Analysis ◽  
Cost Effective ◽  
Sensitivity Analyses ◽  
Convulsive Status Epilepticus ◽  
Decision Analysis Model ◽  
Analysis Model ◽  
The Cost

ObjectiveCompare the cost and effectiveness of nonbenzodiazepine antiepileptic drugs (non-BZD AEDs) for treatment of BZD-resistant convulsive status epilepticus (SE).MethodsDecision analysis model populated with effectiveness data from a systematic review and meta-analysis of the literature, and cost data from publicly available prices. The primary outcome was cost per seizure stopped ($/SS). Sensitivity analyses evaluated the robustness of the results across a wide variation of the input parameters.ResultsWe included 24 studies with 1,185 SE episodes. The most effective non-BZD AED was phenobarbital (PB) with a probability of SS of 0.8 (95% confidence interval [CI]: 0.69–0.88), followed by valproate (VPA) (0.71 [95% CI: 0.61–0.79]), lacosamide (0.66 [95% CI: 0.51–0.79]), levetiracetam (LEV) (0.62 [95% CI: 0.5–0.73]), and phenytoin/fosphenytoin (PHT) (0.53 [95% CI: 0.39–0.67]). In pairwise comparisons, PB was more effective than PHT (p = 0.002), VPA was more effective than PHT (p = 0.043), and PB was more effective than LEV (p = 0.018). The most cost-effective non-BZD AED was LEV (incremental cost-effectiveness ratio [ICER]: $18.55/SS), followed by VPA (ICER: $94.44/SS), and lastly PB (ICER: $847.22/SS). PHT and lacosamide were not cost-effective compared to the other options. Sensitivity analyses showed marked overlap in cost-effectiveness, but PHT was consistently less cost-effective than LEV, VPA, and PB.ConclusionVPA and PB were more effective than PHT for SE. There is substantial overlap in the cost-effectiveness of non-BZD AEDs for SE, but available evidence does not support the preeminence of PHT, neither in terms of effectiveness nor in terms of cost-effectiveness.

scholarly journals Cost-effectiveness of pembrolizumab for treatment of platinum-resistant recurrent or metastatic head and neck squamous cell carcinoma in China: an economic analysis based on a randomised, open-label, phase III trial

BMJ Open ◽  
2020 ◽  
Vol 10 (12) ◽  
pp. e038867 ◽  
Author(s):  
Wenxiu Xin ◽  
Haiying Ding ◽  
Qilu Fang ◽  
Xiaowei Zheng ◽  
Yinghui Tong ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Sensitivity Analysis ◽  
Squamous Cell Carcinoma ◽  
Cost Effectiveness ◽  
Cell Carcinoma ◽  
Head And Neck ◽  
Squamous Cell ◽  
Probabilistic Sensitivity Analysis ◽  
Cost Effective ◽  
Platinum Resistant ◽  
The Cost

BackgroundPembrolizumab was recently demonstrated to have survival benefit in patients with recurrent or metastatic head and neck squamous cell carcinoma (r/mHNSCC). However, the cost-effectiveness of pembrolizumab versus chemotherapy in China remains uncertain.ObjectiveThis analysis aimed to describe the cost-effectiveness of pembrolizumab versus standard-of-care (SOC) therapy in r/mHNSCC in China.DesignA Markov model consisting of three health states (stable, progressive and dead) was developed to compare the cost and effectiveness of pembrolizumab with SOC in platinum-resistant r/mHNSCC. Model inputs for transition probabilities and toxicity were collected from the KEYNOTE-040 trial, while health utilities were estimated from a literature review. Cost data were acquired for the payer’s perspective in China. Costs and outcomes were discounted at an annual rate of 3.0%. Sensitivity analyses were conducted to test the uncertainties surrounding model parameters.Outcome measuresThe primary outcome was incremental cost-effectiveness ratios (ICERs), which were calculated as the cost per quality-adjusted life years (QALYs).ResultsThe total mean cost of pembrolizumab and SOC was US$45 861 and US$41 950, respectively. As for effectiveness, pembrolizumab yielded 0.31 QALYs compared with 0.25 QALYs for SOC therapy. The ICER for pembrolizumab versus SOC was US$65 186/QALY, which was higher than the willingness-to-pay threshold (WTP) of US$28 130/QALY in China. The univariate sensitivity analysis indicated that utility values for progressive state, probability from stable to progressive in the SOC group, as well as cost of pembrolizumab were the three most influential variables on ICER. The probabilistic sensitivity analysis demonstrated that standard therapy was more likely to be cost-effective compared with pembrolizumab at a WTP value of US$28 130/QALY. Results were robust across both univariate analysis and probabilistic sensitivity analysis.ConclusionsPembrolizumab is not likely to be a cost-effective strategy compared with SOC therapy in patients with platinum-resistant r/mHNSCC in China.Trial registration numberNCT02252042; Post-results.

COST-EFFECTIVENESS ANALYSIS OF IVABRADINE IN TREATMENT OF PATIENTS WITH HEART FAILURE IN IRAN

2018 ◽  
Vol 34 (6) ◽  
pp. 576-583 ◽  
Author(s):  
Saeed Taheri ◽  
Elham Heidari ◽  
Mohammad Ali Aivazi ◽  
Mehran Shams-Beyranvand ◽  
Mehdi Varmaghani
Keyword(s):  
Heart Failure ◽  
Sensitivity Analysis ◽  
Cost Effectiveness ◽  
Incremental Cost ◽  
Transition Probabilities ◽  
Drug Acquisition ◽  
Sensitivity Analyses ◽  
Baseline Heart Rate ◽  
Life Years ◽  
The Cost

Objectives:This study aimed to assess the cost-effectiveness of ivabradine plus standard of care (SoC) in comparison with current SoC alone from the Iranian payer perspective.Methods:A cohort-based Markov model was developed to assess the incremental cost-effectiveness ratio (ICER) over a 10-year time horizon in a cohort of 1,000 patients. The baseline transition probabilities between New York Heart Association (NYHA), mortality rate, and hospitalization rate were extracted from the literature. The effect of ivabradine on mortality, hospitalization, and NYHA improvement or worsening were retrieved from the SHIFT study. The effectiveness was measured as quality-adjusted life-years (QALYs) using the utility values derived from Iranian Heart Failure Quality of Life study. Direct medical costs were obtained from hospital records and national tariffs. Deterministic and probabilistic sensitivity analyses were conducted to show the robustness of the model.Results:Ivabradine therapy was associated with an incremental cost per QALY of USD $5,437 (incremental cost of USD $2,207 and QALYs gained 0.41) versus SoC. The probabilistic sensitivity analysis showed that ivabradine is expected to have a 60 percent chance of being cost-effective accepting a threshold of USD $6,550 per QALY. Furthermore, deterministic sensitivity analysis indicated that the model is sensitive to the ivabradine drug acquisition cost.Conclusions:The cost-effectiveness model suggested that the addition of ivabradine to SoC therapy was associated with improved clinical outcomes along with increased costs. The analysis indicates that the clinical benefit of ivabradine can be achieved at a reasonable cost in eligible heart failure patients with sinus rhythm and a baseline heart rate ≥ 75 beats per minute (bpm).

Uncertainty about facts and heterogeneity in values

2020 ◽  
pp. 303-320
Author(s):  
Susan Griffin
Keyword(s):  
Sensitivity Analysis ◽  
Economic Evaluation ◽  
Cost Effectiveness ◽  
Uncertainty Analysis ◽  
Probabilistic Sensitivity Analysis ◽  
Cost Effectiveness Analysis ◽  
Sensitivity Analyses ◽  
Information Analysis ◽  
Value Judgments

This chapter covers methods for describing how lack of knowledge impacts on the conduct and findings of distributional cost-effectiveness analysis (DCEA). It also sets out methods for describing how different value judgments can alter the findings. It explains why and how to distinguish uncertainty about facts from heterogeneity in values, and the role of each in informing decisions. It shows how the standard tools of uncertainty analysis in economic evaluation—including deterministic and probabilistic sensitivity analysis, and value of information analysis—can be applied to DCEA to provide information about uncertainty in the estimated health distributions and summary measures of equity impact. The chapter also shows how to use deterministic sensitivity analyses to investigate the implications of alternative value judgments and inequality metrics for DCEA findings and recommendations.

scholarly journals Assessment of the Clinical and Economic Impact of Different Immunization Protocols of Measles, Mumps, Rubella and Varicella in Internationally Adopted Children

Vaccines ◽  
2020 ◽  
Vol 8 (1) ◽  
pp. 60 ◽  
Author(s):  
Sara Boccalini ◽  
Angela Bechini ◽  
Cecilia Maria Alimenti ◽  
Paolo Bonanni ◽  
Luisa Galli ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Cost Effectiveness ◽  
Economic Impact ◽  
Minimum Cost ◽  
Point Of View ◽  
Decision Analysis Model ◽  
Adopted Children ◽  
Analysis Model ◽  
Internationally Adopted Children ◽  
The Cost ◽  
Internationally Adopted

The appropriate immunization of internationally adopted children (IAC) is currently under debate and different approaches have been suggested. The aim of this study is to evaluate the clinical and economic impact of different strategies of measles, mumps, rubella, and varicella (MMRV) immunization in IAC in Italy. A decision analysis model was developed to compare three strategies: presumptive immunization, pre-vaccination serotesting and vaccination based on documentation of previous immunization. Main outcomes were the cost of strategy, number of protected IAC, and cost per child protected against MMRV. Moreover, the incremental cost-effectiveness ratio (ICER) was calculated. The strategy currently recommended in Italy (immunize based on documentation) is less expensive. On the other hand, the pre-vaccination serotesting strategy against MMRV together, improves outcomes with a minimum cost increase, compared with the presumptive immunization strategy and compared with the comparator strategy. From a cost-effectiveness point of view, vaccination based on serotesting results in being the most advantageous strategy compared to presumptive vaccination. By applying a chemiluminescent immunoassay test, the serology strategy resulted to be clinically and economically advantageous. Similar results were obtained excluding children aged <1 year for both serology methods. In conclusion, based on our analyses, considering MMRV vaccine, serotesting strategy appears to be the preferred option in IAC.

scholarly journals Impact of Methicillin-ResistantStaphylococcus aureusPrevalence among S.aureusIsolates on Surgical Site Infection Risk after Coronary Artery Bypass Surgery

2011 ◽  
Vol 32 (4) ◽  
pp. 342-350 ◽  
Author(s):  
Loren G. Miller ◽  
James A. McKinnell ◽  
Michael E. Vollmer ◽  
Brad Spellberg
Keyword(s):  
Antibiotic Prophylaxis ◽  
Cost Minimization ◽  
Artery Bypass ◽  
Surgical Site Infections ◽  
Cardiothoracic Surgery ◽  
Policy Implications ◽  
Sensitivity Analyses ◽  
Decision Analysis Model ◽  
Analysis Model ◽  
Healthcare Settings

Objective.Cephalosporins are recommended for antibiotic prophylaxis to prevent cardiothoracic surgical site infections (SSIs) except in patients withβ-lactam allergy or in settings with a “high” prevalence of methicillin-resistantStaphylococcus aureus(MRSA) among S.aureusisolates (hereafter, “MRSA prevalence”); however, “high” remains undefined. We sought to identify the MRSA prevalence at which glycopeptide prophylaxis would minimize SSIs relative toβ-lactam prophylaxis.Methods.We developed a decision analysis model to estimate SSI likelihood when either glycopeptides orβ-lactams were used for prophylaxis in cardiothoracic surgery. Event probabilities were derived from a systematic literature review. A similar cost-minimization model was also developed.Results.At 0% MRSA prevalence, SSI probability was 3.64% with glycopeptide prophylaxis and 3.49% withβ-lactam prophylaxis. At MRSA prevalences of 10%, 20%, 30%, or 40%, SSI probabilities with glycopeptide prophylaxis did not change, but they were 3.98%, 4.48%, 4.97%, and 5.47% withβ-lactam prophylaxis. The threshold of MRSA prevalence at which glycopeptide prophylaxis minimized SSI probability and cost was 3%. In sensitivity analyses, variations in most model estimates only modestly affected the threshold.Conclusion.Glycopeptide prophylaxis minimizes the risk of SSIs and cost when MRSA prevalence exceeds 3%. At very low MRSA prevalence (between 3% and 10%), the SSI minimization provided by glycopeptide prophylaxis is small and may be within the error of the model. Given the current MRSA prevalence in most community and healthcare settings, clinicians should consider routine prophylaxis with vancomycin. Our findings may have important policy implications, as benefits in cardiothoracic surgery antibiotic prophylaxis must be weighed against the limitations of increased glycopeptide use.

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