STATIONARY PROCESSES THAT LOOK LIKE RANDOM WALKS— THE BOUNDED RANDOM WALK PROCESS IN DISCRETE AND CONTINUOUS TIME

2002 ◽  
Vol 18 (1) ◽  
pp. 99-118 ◽  
Author(s):  
João Nicolau
Keyword(s):  
Time Series ◽  
Random Walk ◽  
Diffusion Process ◽  
Random Walks ◽  
Interest Rates ◽  
Continuous Time ◽  
Financial Time Series ◽  
Finite Limit ◽  
Closed Expression ◽  
Continuous Time Process

Several economic and financial time series are bounded by an upper and lower finite limit (e.g., interest rates). It is not possible to say that these time series are random walks because random walks are limitless with probability one (as time goes to infinity). Yet, some of these time series behave just like random walks. In this paper we propose a new approach that takes into account these ideas. We propose a discrete-time and a continuous-time process (diffusion process) that generate bounded random walks. These paths are almost indistinguishable from random walks, although they are stochastically bounded by an upper and lower finite limit. We derive for both cases the ergodic conditions, and for the diffusion process we present a closed expression for the stationary distribution. This approach suggests that many time series with random walk behavior can in fact be stationarity processes.

scholarly journals Strong Local Survival of Branching Random Walks is Not Monotone

2014 ◽  
Vol 46 (02) ◽  
pp. 400-421 ◽  
Author(s):  
Daniela Bertacchi ◽  
Fabio Zucca
Keyword(s):  
Random Walk ◽  
Random Walks ◽  
Generating Function ◽  
Continuous Time ◽  
Local Property ◽  
Branching Random Walk ◽  
Infinite Dimensional ◽  
Branching Random Walks ◽  
Local Survival ◽  
Branching Law

In this paper we study the strong local survival property for discrete-time and continuous-time branching random walks. We study this property by means of an infinite-dimensional generating functionGand a maximum principle which, we prove, is satisfied by every fixed point ofG. We give results for the existence of a strong local survival regime and we prove that, unlike local and global survival, in continuous time, strong local survival is not a monotone property in the general case (though it is monotone if the branching random walk is quasitransitive). We provide an example of an irreducible branching random walk where the strong local property depends on the starting site of the process. By means of other counterexamples, we show that the existence of a pure global phase is not equivalent to nonamenability of the process, and that even an irreducible branching random walk with the same branching law at each site may exhibit nonstrong local survival. Finally, we show that the generating function of an irreducible branching random walk can have more than two fixed points; this disproves a previously known result.

Investment in New Proved Oil Reserves: An Austrian Perspective

2017 ◽  
Vol 12 (s1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Bradley T. Ewing ◽  
Mark Thornton ◽  
Mark Yanochik
Keyword(s):  
Time Series ◽  
Interest Rates ◽  
Financial Time Series ◽  
Commodity Prices ◽  
Asset Markets ◽  
Oil Reserves ◽  
Econometric Methods ◽  
Low Interest Rates ◽  
Treasury Bond ◽  
Exploration And Production

AbstractExploration and production (E&P) companies must replace oil produced with new proved reserves in order to sustain their existence, generate future revenues and value. Extensions constitute the largest type of additions to new proved reserves. Adding reserves through extensions is capital intensive and both the real price of oil (represented by real refiner acquisition cost) and real interest (represented by real yield on 10 year Treasury bond) will influence the investment in new discoveries of proved reserves. However, recent periods of unusually high commodity prices and ultra-low interest rates, often linked to monetary policy, may have led to an over-investment in reserves through extensions. Accordingly, using U.S. data (1977–2014) we test for the existence of “explosive behavior” in the volume of extensions over time with financial time series econometric methods referred to as right-tail ADF tests which have traditionally been used for identifying speculative bubbles in asset markets. Empirical evidence identifies a period of explosive (“bubble-like”) behavior in the time series of extensions having occurred beginning 2010 through 2014. This research provides an Austrian explanation for the empirical results consistent with the notion of malinvestment.

scholarly journals Strong Local Survival of Branching Random Walks is Not Monotone

2014 ◽  
Vol 46 (2) ◽  
pp. 400-421 ◽  
Author(s):  
Daniela Bertacchi ◽  
Fabio Zucca
Keyword(s):  
Random Walk ◽  
Random Walks ◽  
Generating Function ◽  
Continuous Time ◽  
Local Property ◽  
Branching Random Walk ◽  
Infinite Dimensional ◽  
Branching Random Walks ◽  
Local Survival ◽  
Branching Law

In this paper we study the strong local survival property for discrete-time and continuous-time branching random walks. We study this property by means of an infinite-dimensional generating function G and a maximum principle which, we prove, is satisfied by every fixed point of G. We give results for the existence of a strong local survival regime and we prove that, unlike local and global survival, in continuous time, strong local survival is not a monotone property in the general case (though it is monotone if the branching random walk is quasitransitive). We provide an example of an irreducible branching random walk where the strong local property depends on the starting site of the process. By means of other counterexamples, we show that the existence of a pure global phase is not equivalent to nonamenability of the process, and that even an irreducible branching random walk with the same branching law at each site may exhibit nonstrong local survival. Finally, we show that the generating function of an irreducible branching random walk can have more than two fixed points; this disproves a previously known result.

scholarly journals Limit theorems for some continuous-time random walks

2011 ◽  
Vol 43 (3) ◽  
pp. 782-813 ◽  
Author(s):  
M. Jara ◽  
T. Komorowski
Keyword(s):  
Markov Chain ◽  
Random Walk ◽  
Random Walks ◽  
Quantum Transport ◽  
Continuous Time ◽  
Limit Theorems ◽  
Transport Theory ◽  
Sufficient Conditions ◽  
Continuous Time Random Walks ◽  
Quantum Transport Theory

In this paper we consider the scaled limit of a continuous-time random walk (CTRW) based on a Markov chain {Xn,n≥ 0} and two observables, τ(∙) andV(∙), corresponding to the renewal times and jump sizes. Assuming that these observables belong to the domains of attraction of some stable laws, we give sufficient conditions on the chain that guarantee the existence of the scaled limits for CTRWs. An application of the results to a process that arises in quantum transport theory is provided. The results obtained in this paper generalize earlier results contained in Becker-Kern, Meerschaert and Scheffler (2004) and Meerschaert and Scheffler (2008), and the recent results of Henry and Straka (2011) and Jurlewicz, Kern, Meerschaert and Scheffler (2010), where {Xn,n≥ 0} is a sequence of independent and identically distributed random variables.

scholarly journals Chover-Type Laws of the Iterated Logarithm for Continuous Time Random Walks

2012 ◽  
Vol 2012 ◽  
pp. 1-13
Author(s):  
Kyo-Shin Hwang ◽  
Wensheng Wang
Keyword(s):  
Random Walk ◽  
Random Walks ◽  
Anomalous Diffusion ◽  
Renewal Process ◽  
Continuous Time ◽  
Waiting Times ◽  
Continuous Time Random Walk ◽  
Domains Of Attraction ◽  
Iterated Logarithm ◽  
Continuous Time Random Walks

A continuous time random walk is a random walk subordinated to a renewal process used in physics to model anomalous diffusion. In this paper, we establish Chover-type laws of the iterated logarithm for continuous time random walks with jumps and waiting times in the domains of attraction of stable laws.

Exploring activity-driven network with biased walks

2017 ◽  
Vol 28 (09) ◽  
pp. 1750111
Author(s):  
Yan Wang ◽  
Ding Juan Wu ◽  
Fang Lv ◽  
Meng Long Su
Keyword(s):  
Random Walk ◽  
Diffusion Process ◽  
Random Walks ◽  
Stationary Distribution ◽  
Significant Role ◽  
Search Strategy ◽  
Transition Probability ◽  
Edge Weighting ◽  
Coverage Function ◽  
Analytical Expressions

We investigate the concurrent dynamics of biased random walks and the activity-driven network, where the preferential transition probability is in terms of the edge-weighting parameter. We also obtain the analytical expressions for stationary distribution and the coverage function in directed and undirected networks, all of which depend on the weight parameter. Appropriately adjusting this parameter, more effective search strategy can be obtained when compared with the unbiased random walk, whether in directed or undirected networks. Since network weights play a significant role in the diffusion process.

scholarly journals Time scale and fractionality in financial time series

2016 ◽  
Vol 76 (1) ◽  
pp. 76-93 ◽  
Author(s):  
Thomas W. Sproul
Keyword(s):  
Time Series ◽  
Random Walk ◽  
Financial Time Series ◽  
Percent Level ◽  
Multiple Hypothesis Testing ◽  
Time Lags ◽  
Variance Ratio ◽  
Agricultural Commodity ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Financial Time

Purpose – Turvey (2007, Physica A) introduced a scaled variance ratio procedure for testing the random walk hypothesis (RWH) for financial time series by estimating Hurst coefficients for a fractional Brownian motion model of asset prices. The purpose of this paper is to extend his work by making the estimation procedure robust to heteroskedasticity and by addressing the multiple hypothesis testing problem. Design/methodology/approach – Unbiased, heteroskedasticity consistent, variance ratio estimates are calculated for end of day price data for eight time lags over 12 agricultural commodity futures (front month) and 40 US equities from 2000-2014. A bootstrapped stepdown procedure is used to obtain appropriate statistical confidence for the multiplicity of hypothesis tests. The variance ratio approach is compared against regression-based testing for fractionality. Findings – Failing to account for bias, heteroskedasticity, and multiplicity of testing can lead to large numbers of erroneous rejections of the null hypothesis of efficient markets following an independent random walk. Even with these adjustments, a few futures contracts significantly violate independence for short lags at the 99 percent level, and a number of equities/lags violate independence at the 95 percent level. When testing at the asset level, futures prices are found not to contain fractional properties, while some equities do. Research limitations/implications – Only a subsample of futures and equities, and only a limited number of lags, are evaluated. It is possible that multiplicity adjustments for larger numbers of tests would result in fewer rejections of independence. Originality/value – This paper provides empirical evidence that violations of the RWH for financial time series are likely to exist, but are perhaps less common than previously thought.

On a Conjecture of Bollobás and Brightwell Concerning Random Walks on Product Graphs

1998 ◽  
Vol 7 (4) ◽  
pp. 397-401 ◽  
Author(s):  
OLLE HÄGGSTRÖM
Keyword(s):  
Random Walk ◽  
Random Walks ◽  
Discrete Time ◽  
Complete Graph ◽  
Continuous Time ◽  
Product Graph ◽  
Product Graphs ◽  
Continuous Time Random Walks ◽  
Discrete Time Case

We consider continuous time random walks on a product graph G×H, where G is arbitrary and H consists of two vertices x and y linked by an edge. For any t>0 and any a, b∈V(G), we show that the random walk starting at (a, x) is more likely to have hit (b, x) than (b, y) by time t. This contrasts with the discrete time case and proves a conjecture of Bollobás and Brightwell. We also generalize the result to cases where H is either a complete graph on n vertices or a cycle on n vertices.

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