Modelling the impact of varicella vaccination on varicella and zoster

2009 ◽  
Vol 138 (4) ◽  
pp. 469-481 ◽  
Author(s):  
M. KARHUNEN ◽  
T. LEINO ◽  
H. SALO ◽  
I. DAVIDKIN ◽  
T. KILPI ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Large Scale ◽  
Vaccine Coverage ◽  
Varicella Vaccine ◽  
Age Groups ◽  
Varicella Vaccination ◽  
Negative Consequences ◽  
Serological Data ◽  
Notification Data ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Case Notification

SUMMARYIt has been suggested that the incidence of herpes zoster may increase due to lack of natural boosting under large-scale vaccination with the varicella vaccine. To study the possibility and magnitude of such negative consequences of mass vaccination, we built a mathematical model of varicella and zoster epidemiology in the Finnish population. The model was based on serological data on varicella infection, case-notification data on zoster, and new knowledge about close contacts relevant to transmission of infection. According to the analysis, a childhood programme against varicella will increase the incidence of zoster by one to more than two thirds in the next 50 years. This will be due to increase in case numbers in the ⩾35 years age groups. However, high vaccine coverage and a two-dose programme will be very effective in stopping varicella transmission in the population.

scholarly journals Universal varicella vaccination in the Sicilian paediatric population: rapid uptake of the vaccination programme and morbidity trends over five years

2009 ◽  
Vol 14 (35) ◽  
Author(s):  
G Giammanco ◽  
S Ciriminna ◽  
I Barberi ◽  
L Titone ◽  
M Lo Giudice ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Vaccination Programme ◽  
Vaccine Coverage ◽  
Varicella Vaccine ◽  
Age Groups ◽  
Vaccination Strategy ◽  
Paediatric Population ◽  
Incidence Rates ◽  
Universal Vaccination ◽  
Varicella Vaccination ◽  
Local Health

Following the licensure of the Oka/Merck varicella vaccine in Italy in January 2003, the Sicilian health authorities launched a universal vaccination programme in all nine Local Health Units. A two-cohort vaccination strategy was adopted to minimise the shift of the mean age of varicella occurrence to older age groups, with the goal of vaccinating with one dose at least 80% of children in their second year of life and 50% of susceptible adolescents in their 12th year of life. Two studies were implemented in parallel to closely monitor vaccination coverage as well as varicella incidence. Overall, the programme achieved its target, with 87.5% vaccine coverage for the birth cohort 2005 and 90.2% for adolescents born in 1995 and 1996. Varicella surveillance data obtained from a total of 28,188 children (0-14 years-old) monitored by family paediatricians showed a decline in incidence rates from 95.7 (95% confidence interval (CI): 72.2-126.8) for 1,000 person-years (PY) in 2004 to 9.0 (95% CI: 6.4-12.6) for 1,000 PY in 2007. In Europe, the only similar experience is the routine childhood varicella vaccination programme in Germany that started in 2004 with a single dose at the age of 11-14 months. The two-cohort universal vaccination programme implemented in Sicily, as well as the network for the surveillance study, can offer a model to other European countries that are considering introducing universal childhood varicella vaccination.

scholarly journals The changing epidemiology of varicella and herpes zoster in Hong Kong before universal varicella vaccination in 2014

2018 ◽  
Vol 146 (6) ◽  
pp. 723-734 ◽  
Author(s):  
D. Y. W. Chan ◽  
W. J. Edmunds ◽  
H. L. Chan ◽  
V. Chan ◽  
Y. C. K. Lam ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Hong Kong ◽  
Vaccination Coverage ◽  
Vaccine Coverage ◽  
Varicella Vaccine ◽  
Age Groups ◽  
Public Hospitals ◽  
Varicella Vaccination ◽  
Older Individuals ◽  
Varicella Zoster ◽  
Private Market

AbstractIn Hong Kong, universal varicella vaccination started in July 2014. Before this, children could receive varicella vaccine via the private market. We analysed the epidemiology of varicella and zoster before universal vaccination. We estimated varicella vaccination coverage through surveys in preschool children. We estimated the burden of varicella and zoster with varicella notifications from 1999/00 to 2013/14, Accident and Emergency Department (A&E) attendance and inpatient admissions to public hospitals from 2004/05 to 2013/14. We fitted a catalytic model to serological data on antibodies against varicella-zoster virus to estimate the force of infection. We found that varicella vaccination coverage gradually increased to about 50% before programme inception. In children younger than 5 years, the annual rate of varicella notifications, varicella admission and zoster A&E attendance generally declined. The annual notification, A&E attendance and hospitalisation rate of varicella and zoster generally increased for individuals between 10 and 59 years old. Varicella serology indicated an age shift during the study period towards a higher proportion of infections in slightly older individuals, but the change was most notable before vaccine licensure. In conclusion, we observed a shift in the burden of varicella to slightly older age groups with a corresponding increase in incidence but it cannot necessarily be attributed to private market vaccine coverage alone. Increasing varicella vaccination uptake in the private market might affect varicella transmission and epidemiology, but not to the level of interrupting transmission.

scholarly journals Preparing to introduce the varicella vaccine into the Italian immunisation programme: varicella-related hospitalisations in Tuscany, 2004–2012

2016 ◽  
Vol 21 (24) ◽  
Author(s):  
Sara Boccalini ◽  
Paolo Bonanni ◽  
Angela Bechini
Keyword(s):  
National Level ◽  
Varicella Vaccine ◽  
Age Groups ◽  
Immunisation Programme ◽  
Significant Decline ◽  
Hospitalisation Rate ◽  
High Coverage ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Risk Ratios ◽  
Vaccination Period

A universal immunisation programme against varicella in the form of the measles-mumps-rubella-varicella (MMRV) vaccine for toddlers aged 13–15 months was introduced in Tuscany in July 2008. An assessment of the impact of this programme on varicella-related hospitalisations 4 years after its introduction could further support its adoption at a national level. The hospitalisation data were analysed in two periods: pre-vaccination (2004–2007) and vaccination period (2009–2012). The high coverage of the vaccines (84% in 2012) resulted in a significant decline in notifications, from 33,114 (2004–2007) to 13,184 cases (2009–2012), and also of hospitalisations, from 584 (pre-vaccination period) to 325 (vaccination period). The hospitalisation rate was 4.1 per 100,000 (95% confidence intervals (CI): 3.4–4.7) before the introduction of vaccination, which dropped to 2.2 per 100,000 (95% CI: 1.7–2.7) in the vaccination period (hospitalisation risk ratios: 0.54; 95% CI:  0.472–0.619). The reduction was most significant in the youngest age groups. The introduction of universal vaccination has already led to a significant decline in hospitalisations due to varicella after just 4 years of implementation. Hospitalisation rates fell noticeably among younger individuals involved in the vaccination programme. The decrease in hospitalisation rate in the older age groups suggests a possible indirect protection.

scholarly journals Possible Impact of Wide-scale Vaccination Against Serogroup B Neisseria Meningitidis on Gonorrhea Incidence Rates in One Region of Quebec, Canada

2017 ◽  
Vol 4 (suppl_1) ◽  
pp. S734-S735 ◽  
Author(s):  
Jean Longtin ◽  
Rejean Dion ◽  
Marc Simard ◽  
Jean-Francois Betala Belinga ◽  
Yves Longtin ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Neisseria Meningitidis ◽  
Vaccine Coverage ◽  
Vaccination Campaign ◽  
Age Groups ◽  
Incidence Rates ◽  
Study Objective ◽  
Grant Recipient ◽  
Invasive Infections ◽  
Wide Scale ◽  
The Impact

Abstract Background Owing to a persistent increase of serogroup B Neisseria meningitidis (Nm) invasive infections in the Saguenay-Lac-Saint-Jean (SLSJ) region of the province of Quebec (Canada) since 2006, a wide-scale vaccination campaign of individuals aged 6 months to 20 years was conducted between May and December 2014 using the 4-component protein-based meningococcus serogroup B vaccine (4CMenB). Components of this vaccine have shown to potentially cross-react with Neisseria gonorrhoeae (Ng). The study objective was to assess the impact of the vaccination campaign on Ng incidence rate (IR). Methods Ng cases notified to public health authorities during prevaccination period (January 2006 to June 2014) and postvaccination period (July 2014 to June 2017) were analyzed. The impact of this mass campaign was estimated by a Poisson regression model, including the year (11 July–June categories), age (14–20 vs. 21 years and older), and the intervention (0 by default and 1 in those 14–20 years in the period of July 2014 to June 2017). Results Overall vaccine coverage was 82% in the target group. A total of 231 Ng cases were reported among persons 14 years and older (IR: 8.4/100,000 person-years) of the SLSJ region from January 2006 to June 2017. A decrease in the Ng number of cases and IR among individuals 14–20 years was observed during the post-vaccination period whereas it increased in those 21 years and older (figure). Estimate of vaccination impact was an Ng risk reduction of 59% (95% CI: −22% to 84%; P = 0.1). During the same period, Chlamydia trachomatis (Ct) infections increased among persons of both age groups in the SLSJ region. Conclusion Although the estimate of the impact of the campaign was not statistically significant, possibly due to limited size of the study population and the low incidence of the disease, it is congruent with results of a case–control study in New Zealand showing an OMV-MeNZB vaccine effectiveness of 31%. A higher effectiveness of 4CMenB is a plausible hypothesis as three additional proteins also found in Ng are included in the vaccine used in the SLSJ region. The results of this ecologic study suggest cross-protection of 4CMenB vaccine against Ng infections. Further studies on this topic are warranted. Disclosures P. De Wals, GlaxoSmithKline: Grant Investigator and Scientific Advisor, Grant recipient and travel expenses. Pfizer: Grant Investigator and Scientific Advisor, Grant recipient and travel expenses. Sanofi-Pasteur: Grant Investigator and Scientific Advisor, Grant recipient and travel expenses. Novartis: Grant Investigator and Scientific Advisor, Grant recipient and travel expenses.

scholarly journals The impact of national standardized literacy and numeracy testing on children and teaching staff in remote Australian Indigenous communities

2018 ◽  
Vol 36 (2) ◽  
pp. 265-287 ◽  
Author(s):  
Susy Macqueen ◽  
Ute Knoch ◽  
Gillian Wigglesworth ◽  
Rachel Nordlinger ◽  
Ruth Singer ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Standardized Testing ◽  
Cross Sections ◽  
Large Scale ◽  
Population Level ◽  
Indigenous Communities ◽  
Teaching Staff ◽  
Negative Consequences ◽  
Skills Testing ◽  
Australian English ◽  
The Impact

All educational testing is intended to have consequences, which are assumed to be beneficial, but tests may also have unintended, negative consequences (Messick, 1989). The issue is particularly important in the case of large-scale standardized tests, such as Australia’s National Assessment Program - Literacy and Numeracy (NAPLAN), the intended benefits of which are increased accountability and improved educational outcomes. The NAPLAN purpose is comparable to that of other state and national ‘core skills’ testing programs, which evaluate cross-sections of populations in order to compare results between population sub-groupings. Such comparisons underpin ‘accountability’ in the era of population-level testing. This study investigates the impact of NAPLAN testing on one population grouping that is prominent in the NAPLAN results’ comparisons and public reporting: children in remote Indigenous communities. A series of interviews with principals and teachers documents informants’ first-hand experiences of the use and effects of NAPLAN in schools. In the views of most participants, the language and content of the test instruments, the nature of the test engagement, and the test washback have negative impacts on students and staff, with little benefit in terms of the usefulness of the test data. The primary issue is the fact that meaningful participation in the tests depends critically on proficiency in Standard Australian English (SAE) as a first language. This study contributes to the broader discussion of how reform-targeted standardized testing for national populations affects sub-groups who are not treated equitably by the test instrument or reporting for accountability purposes. It highlights a conflict between consequential validity and the notion of accountability that drives reform-targeted testing.

Is there a conflict between cetacean conservation and marine renewable-energy developments?

2010 ◽  
Vol 37 (8) ◽  
pp. 688 ◽  
Author(s):  
Mark Peter Simmonds ◽  
Vicki C. Brown
Keyword(s):  
Renewable Energy ◽  
Large Scale ◽  
Significant Risk ◽  
Pile Driving ◽  
Negative Consequences ◽  
Cetacean Species ◽  
Novel Technologies ◽  
Marine Renewable Energy ◽  
The Usa ◽  
The Impact

There is currently an unprecedented expansion of marine renewable-energy developments, particularly in UK waters. Marine renewable-energy plants are also being developed in many other countries across Europe and in the wider world, including in the USA, Canada, New Zealand and Australia. Large-scale developments, in UK waters, covering thousands of square kilometres are now planned; however, data on the likely impact of this expansion on the 28 cetacean species found in UK waters are lacking, or at best limited. However, the available information, including inferences drawn from the impact of other human activities in the marine environment, indicates a significant risk of negative consequences, with the noise from pile driving highlighted as a major concern. The marine renewable-energy industry will also deploy some novel technologies, such as large submerged turbines, with unknown consequences for marine wildlife. Further research is urgently required, including distributional and behavioural studies, to establish baselines against which any changes may be measured. Precautionary actions, particularly with respect to pile driving, are advocated to minimise impacts on cetaceans.

scholarly journals Introduction of rubella-containing-vaccine to Madagascar: implications for roll-out and local elimination

2016 ◽  
Vol 13 (117) ◽  
pp. 20151101 ◽  
Author(s):  
Amy Wesolowski ◽  
Keitly Mensah ◽  
Cara E. Brook ◽  
Miora Andrianjafimasy ◽  
Amy Winter ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Vaccine Coverage ◽  
Local Extinction ◽  
Surveillance Systems ◽  
Global Alliance ◽  
Congenital Rubella ◽  
Age Of Infection ◽  
Age Structured ◽  
Serological Data ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Roll Out

Few countries in Africa currently include rubella-containing vaccination (RCV) in their immunization schedule. The Global Alliance for Vaccines Initiative (GAVI) recently opened a funding window that has motivated more widespread roll-out of RCV. As countries plan RCV introductions, an understanding of the existing burden, spatial patterns of vaccine coverage, and the impact of patterns of local extinction and reintroduction for rubella will be critical to developing effective programmes. As one of the first countries proposing RCV introduction in part with GAVI funding, Madagascar provides a powerful and timely case study. We analyse serological data from measles surveillance systems to characterize the epidemiology of rubella in Madagascar. Combining these results with data on measles vaccination delivery, we develop an age-structured model to simulate rubella vaccination scenarios and evaluate the dynamics of rubella and the burden of congenital rubella syndrome (CRS) across Madagascar. We additionally evaluate the drivers of spatial heterogeneity in age of infection to identify focal locations where vaccine surveillance should be strengthened and where challenges to successful vaccination introduction are expected. Our analyses indicate that characteristics of rubella in Madagascar are in line with global observations, with an average age of infection near 7 years, and an impact of frequent local extinction with reintroductions causing localized epidemics. Modelling results indicate that introduction of RCV into the routine programme alone may initially decrease rubella incidence but then result in cumulative increases in the burden of CRS in some regions (and transient increases in this burden in many regions). Deployment of RCV with regular supplementary campaigns will mitigate these outcomes. Results suggest that introduction of RCV offers a potential for elimination of rubella in Madagascar, but also emphasize both that targeted vaccination is likely to be a lynchpin of this success, and the public health vigilance that this introduction will require.

scholarly journals Impact of Proactive Postsales Service and Cross-Selling Activities on Customer Churn and Service Calls

2019 ◽  
Vol 23 (1) ◽  
pp. 53-69 ◽  
Author(s):  
Jan U. Becker ◽  
Martin Spann ◽  
Christian Barrot
Keyword(s):  
Large Scale ◽  
Service Providers ◽  
Telecommunications Industry ◽  
Negative Consequences ◽  
Mediating Effects ◽  
Service Failures ◽  
Customer Churn ◽  
Large Scale Field ◽  
Media Types ◽  
The Impact

In recent years, service providers have identified the proactive postsales service (PPS) as a viable measure for preempting service failures and their negative consequences. Due to the high costs associated with PPSs, companies are looking for ways to increase their efficiency. To understand how companies can increase their revenues and lower their costs, this study investigates how cross-selling activities and different media types affect the impact of a PPS on inbound service calls and customer churn. Based on a large-scale field experiment in the telecommunications industry, as well as a controlled lab experiment, the results demonstrate the overall effectiveness of the PPS and indicate two mediating effects. While the effect of cross-selling on customer churn and service calls is mediated by the customers’ uncertainty regarding the company’s motives, it is the customers’ perception of privacy invasion that mediates the influence of the contact medium on the effectiveness of the PPS. Our finding that PPS contacts have to be clear in their message and should not be perceived as invasive is an indication of the importance of service-(post)sales ambidexterity.

scholarly journals Impact of Participation in Contract Farming on Smallholder Farmers’ Income and Food Security in Rural Benin: PSM and LATE Parameter Combined

2020 ◽  
Vol 12 (3) ◽  
pp. 901 ◽  
Author(s):  
Odountan Ambaliou Olounlade ◽  
Gu-Cheng Li ◽  
Sènakpon E. Haroll Kokoye ◽  
François Vihôdé Dossouhoui ◽  
Kuassi Auxence Aristide Akpa ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Food Security ◽  
Food Consumption ◽  
Large Scale ◽  
Smallholder Farmers ◽  
Average Treatment Effect ◽  
Farm Income ◽  
Security Level ◽  
Negative Consequences ◽  
Contract Farming ◽  
The Impact

Investigated in this work is the impact of contract farming participation on smallholder farmers’ income and food security in rice crop production in Northern Benin using 400 randomly selected rice farmer households. Unlike previous studies, we corrected for both observed and unobserved biases by combining propensity score matching (PSM) and the local average treatment effect parameter (LATE). The results showed significant negative consequences of partaking in rice contract farming. We found evidence of significant negative effects on rice production income at a 1% level. The more the rice farmers join in contract farming, the lower the farm income became. Decreased food consumption was also a result of contract farming participation for potential participants by a score of 60.64, placing their households at the food security status level of poor food consumption because the quantity and nutritional quality of the food consumed were inadequate. Contract farming is, therefore, not a reasonable policy instrument that can help farmers increase their income and improve their food security level in the Alibori Department, Benin if farmers do not diversify their crops. The necessary resources and economic environment are not yet in place to allow contract farming to take full advantage of its potential benefits. To prevent the wasting of scarce public resources, expanding contract farming would not be appropriate in marginal areas with markets and other infrastructure. Additional measures are needed for contract farming to be profitable for contracting actors and to ensure sustainability and the large-scale participation of farmers.

scholarly journals Epidemiology of measles, mumps and rubella in Italy

2002 ◽  
Vol 129 (3) ◽  
pp. 543-550 ◽  
Author(s):  
G. GABUTTI ◽  
M. C. ROTA ◽  
S. SALMASO ◽  
B. M. BRUZZONE ◽  
A. BELLA ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Vaccine Coverage ◽  
Age Groups ◽  
Progressive Increase ◽  
Childhood Immunization ◽  
Mmr Vaccine ◽  
Seroprevalence Data ◽  
The Mean ◽  
European Standards ◽  
Serological Data ◽  
Vaccination Campaigns

A serosurvey for measles, mumps and rubella was conducted in Italy; incidence based on statutory notifications over the last three decades was also calculated. In Italy the diseases followed an endemic–epidemic pattern, with an incidence peak every 2–4 years, and had a limited reduction of incidence attributable to childhood immunization. Lower notification rates were observed in the Southern regions. This is possibly related to greater under notification in the South and is confirmed by our seroprevalence data. Incidence of measles and rubella and proportion of cases among young adults increased significantly in the three decades considered, but not for mumps. Serological data confirmed that these infections are still very frequent in Italy, without significant geographic variation in the country. In the age groups 2–4 and 5–9 years the percentage of individuals still susceptible to each virus was higher than 30%. The proportion of susceptible subjects older than 15 years was similar for the three infections (6·1, 11·7 and 8·8% for measles, mumps and rubella, respectively). The low vaccine coverage for rubella and measles in Italy has so far only partially affected the occurrence of the diseases. No impact of mumps vaccination is visible. The average number of deaths, for each disease, has decreased during the three study periods. Today the priority in Italy is to halt the progressive increase of the mean age of acquisition of the three infections, to eliminate differences in coverage among regions and to conform to European standards. This will be achieved through a combination of increasing MMR vaccine coverage before 2 years of age, implementing vaccination campaigns for low seroprevalence age groups, and/or introducing a second dose of MMR, depending on the level of current MMR coverage.

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