Evaluating vaccination strategies to control foot-and-mouth disease: a model comparison study

SUMMARYSimulation models can offer valuable insights into the effectiveness of different control strategies and act as important decision support tools when comparing and evaluating outbreak scenarios and control strategies. An international modelling study was performed to compare a range of vaccination strategies in the control of foot-and-mouth disease (FMD). Modelling groups from five countries (Australia, New Zealand, USA, UK, The Netherlands) participated in the study. Vaccination is increasingly being recognized as a potentially important tool in the control of FMD, although there is considerable uncertainty as to how and when it should be used. We sought to compare model outputs and assess the effectiveness of different vaccination strategies in the control of FMD. Using a standardized outbreak scenario based on data from an FMD exercise in the UK in 2010, the study showed general agreement between respective models in terms of the effectiveness of vaccination. Under the scenario assumptions, all models demonstrated that vaccination with ‘stamping-out’ of infected premises led to a significant reduction in predicted epidemic size and duration compared to the ‘stamping-out’ strategy alone. For all models there were advantages in vaccinating cattle-only rather than all species, using 3-km vaccination rings immediately around infected premises, and starting vaccination earlier in the control programme. This study has shown that certain vaccination strategies are robust even to substantial differences in model configurations. This result should increase end-user confidence in conclusions drawn from model outputs. These results can be used to support and develop effective policies for FMD control.

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A Simulation Study of the Use of Vaccination to Control Foot-and-Mouth Disease Outbreaks Across Australia

Frontiers in Veterinary Science ◽

10.3389/fvets.2021.648003 ◽

2021 ◽

Vol 8 ◽

Author(s):

Tim R. Capon ◽

Michael G. Garner ◽

Sorada Tapsuwan ◽

Sharon Roche ◽

Andrew C. Breed ◽

...

Keyword(s):

Control Strategies ◽

Foot And Mouth Disease ◽

Mouth Disease ◽

International Standards ◽

Disease Spread ◽

Diverse Range ◽

Stakeholder Consultation ◽

Vaccination Strategies ◽

Spread Model ◽

Foot And Mouth

This study examines the potential for foot-and-mouth disease (FMD) control strategies that incorporate vaccination to manage FMD spread for a range of incursion scenarios across Australia. Stakeholder consultation was used to formulate control strategies and incursion scenarios to ensure relevance to the diverse range of Australian livestock production regions and management systems. The Australian Animal Disease Spread model (AADIS) was used to compare nine control strategies for 13 incursion scenarios, including seven control strategies incorporating vaccination. The control strategies with vaccination differed in terms of their approaches for targeting areas and species. These strategies are compared with two benchmark strategies based on stamping out only. Outbreak size and duration were compared in terms of the total number of infected premises, the duration of the control stage of an FMD outbreak, and the number of vaccinated animals. The three key findings from this analysis are as follows: (1) smaller outbreaks can be effectively managed by stamping out without vaccination, (2) the size and duration of larger outbreaks can be significantly reduced when vaccination is used, and (3) different vaccination strategies produced similar reductions in the size and duration of an outbreak, but the number of animals vaccinated varied. Under current international standards for regaining FMD-free status, vaccinated animals need to be removed from the population at the end of the outbreak to minimize trade impacts. We have shown that selective, targeted vaccination strategies could achieve effective FMD control while significantly reducing the number of animals vaccinated.

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Evaluating vaccination strategies to control foot-and-mouth disease: a country comparison study

Epidemiology and Infection ◽

10.1017/s0950268818001243 ◽

2018 ◽

Vol 146 (9) ◽

pp. 1138-1150 ◽

Cited By ~ 5

Author(s):

T.G. Rawdon ◽

M.G. Garner ◽

R.L. Sanson ◽

M.A. Stevenson ◽

C. Cook ◽

...

Keyword(s):

Relative Effectiveness ◽

Foot And Mouth Disease ◽

Simulation Models ◽

Mouth Disease ◽

Control Measures ◽

Economic Implications ◽

Outbreak Management ◽

Vaccination Strategies ◽

Fmd Virus ◽

Foot And Mouth

AbstractVaccination is increasingly being recognised as a potential tool to supplement ‘stamping out’ for controlling foot-and-mouth disease (FMD) outbreaks in non-endemic countries. Infectious disease simulation models provide the opportunity to determine how vaccination might be used in the face of an FMD outbreak. Previously, consistent relative benefits of specific vaccination strategies across different FMD simulation modelling platforms have been demonstrated, using a UK FMD outbreak scenario. We extended this work to assess the relative effectiveness of selected vaccination strategies in five countries: Australia, New Zealand, the USA, the UK and Canada. A comparable, but not identical, FMD outbreak scenario was developed for each country with initial seeding of Pan Asia type O FMD virus into an area with a relatively high density of livestock farms. A series of vaccination strategies (in addition to stamping out (SO)) were selected to evaluate key areas of interest from a disease response perspective, including timing of vaccination, species considerations (e.g. vaccination of only those farms with cattle), risk area vaccination and resources available for vaccination. The study found that vaccination used with SO was effective in reducing epidemic size and duration in a severe outbreak situation. Early vaccination and unconstrained resources for vaccination consistently outperformed other strategies. Vaccination of only those farms with cattle produced comparable results, with some countries demonstrating that this could be as effective as all species vaccination. Restriction of vaccination to higher risk areas was less effective than other strategies. This study demonstrates consistency in the relative effectiveness of selected vaccination strategies under different outbreak start up conditions conditional on the assumption that each of the simulation models provide a realistic estimation of FMD virus spread. Preferred outbreak management approaches must however balance the principles identified in this study, working to clearly defined outbreak management objectives, while having a good understanding of logistic requirements and the socio-economic implications of different control measures.

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Modelling vaccination strategies against foot-and-mouth disease

Nature ◽

10.1038/nature01343 ◽

2002 ◽

Vol 421 (6919) ◽

pp. 136-142 ◽

Cited By ~ 274

Author(s):

M. J. Keeling ◽

M. E. J. Woolhouse ◽

R. M. May ◽

G. Davies ◽

B. T. Grenfell

Keyword(s):

Foot And Mouth Disease ◽

Mouth Disease ◽

Vaccination Strategies ◽

Foot And Mouth

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Mitigation Strategies for Foot and Mouth Disease

Investigations into Living Systems, Artificial Life, and Real-World Solutions ◽

10.4018/978-1-4666-3890-7.ch016 ◽

2013 ◽

pp. 176-203

Author(s):

Sohini Roy Chowdhury ◽

Caterina Scoglio ◽

William H. Hsu

Keyword(s):

Predictive Models ◽

Spatial Information ◽

Ethical Issues ◽

Foot And Mouth Disease ◽

Simulation Models ◽

Cost Effective ◽

Mouth Disease ◽

Mitigation Strategies ◽

Foot And Mouth ◽

The Cost

Prediction of epidemics such as Foot and Mouth Disease (FMD) is a global necessity in addressing economic, political and ethical issues faced by the affected countries. In the absence of precise and accurate spatial information regarding disease dynamics, learning- based predictive models can be used to mimic latent spatial parameters so as to predict the spread of epidemics in time. This paper analyzes temporal predictions from four such learning-based models, namely: neural network, autoregressive, Bayesian network, and Monte-Carlo simulation models. The prediction qualities of these models have been validated using FMD incidence reports in Turkey. Additionally, the authors perform simulations of mitigation strategies based on the predictive models to curb the impact of the epidemic. This paper also analyzes the cost-effectiveness of these mitigation strategies to conclude that vaccinations and movement ban strategies are more cost-effective than premise culls before the onset of an epidemic outbreak; however, in the event of existing epidemic outbreaks, premise culling is more effective at controlling FMD.

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The Effectiveness of a Foot and Mouth Disease Outbreak Control Programme in Thailand 2008–2015: Case Studies and Lessons Learned

Veterinary Sciences ◽

10.3390/vetsci5040101 ◽

2018 ◽

Vol 5 (4) ◽

pp. 101 ◽

Cited By ~ 9

Author(s):

Terdsak Yano ◽

Sith Premashthira ◽

Tosapol Dejyong ◽

Sahatchai Tangtrongsup ◽

Mo D. Salman

Keyword(s):

Prevention And Control ◽

Animal Movement ◽

Foot And Mouth Disease ◽

Control Programme ◽

Mouth Disease ◽

Lessons Learned ◽

Control Measures ◽

Prevention Measures ◽

Foot And Mouth ◽

And Control

Three Foot and Mouth Disease (FMD) outbreaks in northern Thailand that occurred during the implementation of the national FMD strategic plan in 2008–2015 are described to illustrate the lessons learned and to improve the prevention and control of future outbreaks. In 2008, during a FMD outbreak on a dairy farm, milk delivery was banned for 30 days. This was a part of movement management, a key strategy for FMD control in dairy farms in the area. In 2009, more than half the animals on a pig farm were affected by FMD. Animal quarantine and restricted animal movement played a key role in preventing the spread of FMD. In 2010, FMD infection was reported in a captive elephant. The suspected source of virus was a FMD-infected cow on the same premises. The infected elephant was moved to an elephant hospital that was located in a different province before the diagnosis was confirmed. FMD education was given to elephant veterinarians to promote FMD prevention and control strategies in this unique species. These three cases illustrate how differences in outbreak circumstances and species require the implementation of a variety of different FMD control and prevention measures. Control measures and responses should be customized in different outbreak situations.

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Innate Immune Defenses Induced by CpG Do Not Promote Vaccine-Induced Protection against Foot-and-Mouth Disease Virus in Pigs

Clinical and Vaccine Immunology ◽

10.1128/cvi.00018-09 ◽

2009 ◽

Vol 16 (8) ◽

pp. 1151-1157 ◽

Cited By ~ 25

Author(s):

M. P. Alves ◽

L. Guzylack-Piriou ◽

V. Juillard ◽

J.-C. Audonnet ◽

T. Doel ◽

...

Keyword(s):

Disease Virus ◽

Large Scale ◽

Control Strategies ◽

Foot And Mouth Disease ◽

Mouth Disease ◽

Innate Immune ◽

Noticeable Effect ◽

Mouth Disease Virus ◽

Foot And Mouth ◽

Natural Hosts

ABSTRACT Emergency vaccination as part of the control strategies against foot-and-mouth disease virus (FMDV) has the potential to limit virus spread and reduce large-scale culling. To reduce the time between vaccination and the onset of immunity, immunostimulatory CpG was tested for its capacity to promote early protection against FMDV challenge in pigs. To this end, CpG 2142, an efficient inducer of alpha interferon, was injected intramuscularly. Increased transcription of Mx1, OAS, and IRF-7 was identified as a sensitive measurement of CpG-induced innate immunity, with increased levels detectable to at least 4 days after injection of CpG formulated with Emulsigen. Despite this, CpG combined with an FMD vaccine did not promote protection. Pigs vaccinated 2 days before challenge had disease development, which was at least as acute as that of unvaccinated controls. All pigs vaccinated 7 days before challenge were protected without a noticeable effect of CpG. In summary, our results demonstrate the caution required when translating findings from mouse models to natural hosts of FMDV.

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