The role of temperature in reported chickenpox cases from 2000 to 2011 in Japan

2015 ◽  
Vol 143 (12) ◽  
pp. 2666-2678 ◽  
Author(s):  
K. HARIGANE ◽  
A. SUMI ◽  
K. MISE ◽  
N. KOBAYASHI

SUMMARYAnnual periodicities of reported chickenpox cases have been observed in several countries. Of these, Japan has reported a two-peaked, bimodal annual cycle of reported chickenpox cases. This study investigated the possible underlying association of the bimodal cycle observed in the surveillance data of reported chickenpox cases with the meteorological factors of temperature, relative humidity and rainfall. A time-series analysis consisting of the maximum entropy method spectral analysis and the least squares method was applied to the chickenpox data and meteorological data of 47 prefectures in Japan. In all of the power spectral densities for the 47 prefectures, the spectral lines were observed at the frequency positions corresponding to the 1-year and 6-month cycles. The optimum least squares fitting (LSF) curves calculated with the 1-year and 6-month cycles explained the underlying variation of the chickenpox data. The LSF curves reproduced the bimodal and unimodal cycles that were clearly observed in northern and southern Japan, respectively. The data suggest that the second peaks in the bimodal cycles in the reported chickenpox cases in Japan occurred at a temperature of approximately 8·5 °C.

Epidemiologia ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 2 (2) ◽  
pp. 162-178
Author(s):  
Keiji Mise ◽  
Ayako Sumi ◽  
Shintaro Takatsuka ◽  
Shin-ichi Toyoda

The present study investigated associations between epidemiological mumps patterns and meteorological factors in Japan. We used mumps surveillance data and meteorological data from all 47 prefectures of Japan from 1999 to 2020. A time-series analysis incorporating spectral analysis and the least-squares method was adopted. In all power spectral densities for the 47 prefectures, spectral lines were observed at frequency positions corresponding to 1-year and 6-month cycles. Optimum least-squares fitting (LSF) curves calculated with the 1-year and 6-month cycles explained the underlying variation in the mumps data. The LSF curves reproduced bimodal and unimodal cycles that are clearly observed in northern and southern Japan, respectively. In investigating factors associated with the seasonality of mumps epidemics, we defined the contribution ratios of a 1-year cycle (Q1) and 6-month cycle (Q2) as the contributions of amplitudes of 1-year and 6-month cycles, respectively, to the entire amplitude of the time series data. Q1 and Q2 were significantly correlated with annual mean temperature. The vaccine coverage rate of a measles–mumps–rubella vaccine might not have affected the 1-year and 6-month modes of the time series data. The results of the study suggest an association between mean temperature and mumps epidemics in Japan.


1992 ◽  
Vol 15 (10) ◽  
pp. 601-605 ◽  
Author(s):  
T. Yambe ◽  
S. Nitta ◽  
Y. Katahira ◽  
T. Sonobe ◽  
S. Naganuma ◽  
...  

To assess the effect of a total artificial heart (TAH) on the autonomic nervous system a power spectral analysis of the hemodynamics in a TAH animal was done by the maximum entropy method. Two pneumatically driven sac-type ventricular assist devices were implanted as total biventricular bypass (BVB) in adult mongrel dogs to compare the differences between natural heart and TAH. Once the BVB was pumping, the natural heart was electrically fibrillated to constitute the BVB-type TAH model. In the arterial pressure waveform in animals with TAH, respiratory waves were not changed (97.7±24.6%) though Mayer waves were significantly decreased (47.5 ± 22.6%) compared with the animal with a natural heart. These results suggest that prosthetic hemodynamics in the TAH animal affect fluctuations in the cardiovascular system.


1993 ◽  
Vol 2 (3) ◽  
pp. 189-196 ◽  
Author(s):  
Franco Veglio ◽  
Giuliano Pinna ◽  
Remo Melchio ◽  
Franco Rabbia ◽  
Paola Molino ◽  
...  

Geophysics ◽  
1971 ◽  
Vol 36 (4) ◽  
pp. 661-675 ◽  
Author(s):  
R. T. Lacoss

Two new methods (Maximum Likelihood Method or MLM, and Maximum Entropy Method or MEM) for power spectral density estimation have been experimentally investigated. Both methods, unlike conventional methods, adapt to the actual characteristics of the noise process under study. The new techniques are particularly valuable if the process contains one or more narrow peaks in frequency which are to be resolved. In this case, the output peaks from MEM are proportional to the square of the power in the narrow peaks but the area is equal to power. The peak values of the MLM reflect power directly. Both methods yield the true spectrum if the spectrum changes slowly enough with frequency. Neither of the new methods appears to be unduly sensitive to small statistical fluctuations of the estimated correlation function used to obtain spectral estimates.


1992 ◽  
Vol 70 (12) ◽  
pp. 2887-2894 ◽  
Author(s):  
J. K. Kauppinen ◽  
D. J. Moffatt ◽  
H. H. Mantsch

The nonlinear behavior of the filter-type Maximum Entropy Method (MEM) was investigated from a theoretical and a practical point of view. The integrated intensity of the output spectral lines of MEM was probed as a function of the input intensity pattern, the filter length, and the S/N ratio of the input spectrum. The nonlinear behavior of MEM has been explained and the results compared with those derived by another method, LOMEP (Lineshape Optimized Maximum Entropy linear Prediction). The study was carried out with the aim of resolution enhancement of spectra that have high signal-to-noise ratio.


2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Polash Banerjee

Abstract The recent episodes of forest fire in Brazil and Australia of 2019 are tragic reminders of the hazards of the forest fire. Globally incidents of forest fire events are in the rise due to human encroachment into wilderness and climate change. Sikkim with a forest cover of more than 47%, suffers seasonal instances of frequent forest fire during the dry winter months. To address this issue, a GIS-aided and MaxEnt machine learning-based forest fire prediction map has been prepared using forest fire inventory database and maps of environmental features. The study indicates that amongst the environmental features, population density and proximity to roads are the major determinants of the forest fire. This indicates the role of human activities on the incidences of a forest fire. Model validation criteria like ROC curve, correlation coefficient and Cohen’s Kappa show a good predictive capability (AUC = 0.95, COR = 0.77, κ = 0.77). The outcomes of this study in the form of a forest fire prediction map can aid the stakeholders of the forest in taking informed mitigation measures.


2020 ◽  
Vol 386 (4) ◽  
pp. 6-12
Author(s):  
R. T. Abdraimov ◽  
B. E. Vintaykin ◽  
P. A. Saidakhmetov ◽  
N. K. Madiyarov ◽  
M. A. Abdualiyeva

Algorithms for solving typical mineralogical problems associated with quantitative x-ray spectral analysis and quantitative x-ray phase analysis using the program “Origin” are developed. The calculation of the areas and midpoint of spectral lines using the tabular processor of the program “Origin” is considered. Various approaches to determining the parameters of spectral lines using the least squares method using the standard functions of the program “Origin” were tested. The creation of a user function for approximation of diffraction maxima by the Cauchy function taking into account the doublet character of Ka series of x-rays is also considered. Various built-in algorithms for smoothing functions (based on averaging, polynomial approximation and Fourier analysis – synthesis) were tested to find weak diffraction maxima against strong noise; optimal schemes for the application of these algorithms were found. The considered algorithms can be applied in universities when processing the results of laboratory works on the topics "Analysis of spectra of emission of atoms", "Quantitative x-ray spectral analysis" and "Quantitative x-ray phase analysis".


2021 ◽  
Vol 1 (2) ◽  
pp. 49-53
Author(s):  
Ikram Bensouf ◽  
Naceur M’Hamdi ◽  
Hatem Ouled Ahmed ◽  
Faten Lasfar ◽  
Belgacem Ben Aoun ◽  
...  

The aim of the study is to investigate the effects of age, sex, running distance and origin of horse on racing speed for Purebred Arabian horse in Tunisia. Although the occidental type is known to be more successful in racing than the Tunisian type, we undertook this study to try to confirm or deny this supremacy for a sample of racehorses born in Tunisia from occidental father. A total of 333 racing records were considered for race performance. The effects of environmental factors on (sex, age, father’s origin, race distance, number of race seasons) race performance were analyzed using the least-squares method(LSM).The racehorses studied were all Arabian Purebred horses in operation at the racecourse of Ksar Said from 2010 to 2020. They are 180 horses, 90 horses born of a Tunisian father, and 90 horses born in Tunisia ofthe occidentalfather. These horses are the best and most successful in their category. The study revealed that the gender and age effectswere statistically insignificant onracingperformance. Race performance was significantly influenced by the distance and the origin of the father which affirms the improving role of the occidentalhorse in the Tunisian population.


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