scholarly journals Maximum entropy method-based forest fire prediction mapping of Sikkim Himalaya.

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Polash Banerjee
Keyword(s):  
Forest Fire ◽  
Maximum Entropy Method ◽  
Forest Cover ◽  
Entropy Method ◽  
Mitigation Measures ◽  
Sikkim Himalaya ◽  
Environmental Features ◽  
Validation Criteria ◽  
Forest Fire Model

Abstract The recent episodes of forest fire in Brazil and Australia of 2019 are tragic reminders of the hazards of the forest fire. Globally incidents of forest fire events are in the rise due to human encroachment into wilderness and climate change. Sikkim with a forest cover of more than 47%, suffers seasonal instances of frequent forest fire during the dry winter months. To address this issue, a GIS-aided and MaxEnt machine learning-based forest fire prediction map has been prepared using forest fire inventory database and maps of environmental features. The study indicates that amongst the environmental features, population density and proximity to roads are the major determinants of the forest fire. This indicates the role of human activities on the incidences of a forest fire. Model validation criteria like ROC curve, correlation coefficient and Cohen’s Kappa show a good predictive capability (AUC = 0.95, COR = 0.77, κ = 0.77). The outcomes of this study in the form of a forest fire prediction map can aid the stakeholders of the forest in taking informed mitigation measures.

scholarly journals Drivers and distribution of forest fires in Sikkim Himalaya: A maximum entropy-based approach to spatial modelling.

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Polash Banerjee
Keyword(s):  
Forest Fire ◽  
Forest Fires ◽  
Forest Cover ◽  
Spatial Modelling ◽  
Climatic Conditions ◽  
Mitigation Measures ◽  
Sikkim Himalaya ◽  
Environmental Features ◽  
Validation Criteria ◽  
Forest Fire Model

Abstract The recent episodes of forest fire in Brazil and Australia of 2019 are tragic reminders of the hazards of the forest fire. Globally incidents of forest fire events are in the rise due to human encroachment into wilderness and climate change. Sikkim with a forest cover of more than 47%, suffers seasonal instances of frequent forest fire during the dry winter months. To address this issue, a GIS-aided and MaxEnt machine learning-based forest fire prediction map has been prepared using forest fire inventory database and maps of environmental features. The study indicates that amongst the environmental features, climatic conditions and proximity to roads are the major determinants of the forest fire. Model validation criteria like ROC curve, correlation coefficient and Cohen’s Kappa show a good predictive capability (AUC = 0.95, COR = 0.78, κ = 0.78). The outcomes of this study in the form of a forest fire prediction map can aid the stakeholders of the forest in taking informed mitigation measures.

scholarly journals Maximum entropy-based forest fire likelihood mapping: analysing the trends, distribution, and drivers of forest fires in Sikkim Himalaya.

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Polash Banerjee
Keyword(s):  
Forest Fire ◽  
Forest Fires ◽  
Forest Cover ◽  
Predictive Ability ◽  
Climatic Conditions ◽  
Mitigation Measures ◽  
Sikkim Himalaya ◽  
Environmental Features ◽  
Validation Criteria ◽  
Likelihood Mapping

Abstract The recent episodes of forest fires in Brazil and Australia of 2019 are tragic reminders of the hazards of forest fire. Globally incidents of forest fire events are on the rise due to human encroachment into the wilderness and climate change. Sikkim with a forest cover of more than 47%, suffers seasonal instances of frequent forest fire during the dry winter months. To address this issue, a GIS-aided and MaxEnt machine learning-based forest fire prediction map has been prepared using a forest fire inventory database and maps of environmental features. The study indicates that amongst the environmental features, climatic conditions and proximity to roads are the major determinants of forest fires. Model validation criteria like ROC curve, correlation coefficient, and Cohen’s Kappa show a good predictive ability (AUC = 0.95, COR = 0.81, κ = 0.78). The outcomes of this study in the form of a forest fire prediction map can aid the stakeholders of the forest in taking informed mitigation measures.

The role of temperature in reported chickenpox cases from 2000 to 2011 in Japan

2015 ◽  
Vol 143 (12) ◽  
pp. 2666-2678 ◽  
Author(s):  
K. HARIGANE ◽  
A. SUMI ◽  
K. MISE ◽  
N. KOBAYASHI
Keyword(s):  
Least Squares ◽  
Maximum Entropy Method ◽  
Least Squares Method ◽  
Meteorological Factors ◽  
Meteorological Data ◽  
Entropy Method ◽  
Spectral Lines ◽  
Power Spectral ◽  
Power Spectral Densities

SUMMARYAnnual periodicities of reported chickenpox cases have been observed in several countries. Of these, Japan has reported a two-peaked, bimodal annual cycle of reported chickenpox cases. This study investigated the possible underlying association of the bimodal cycle observed in the surveillance data of reported chickenpox cases with the meteorological factors of temperature, relative humidity and rainfall. A time-series analysis consisting of the maximum entropy method spectral analysis and the least squares method was applied to the chickenpox data and meteorological data of 47 prefectures in Japan. In all of the power spectral densities for the 47 prefectures, the spectral lines were observed at the frequency positions corresponding to the 1-year and 6-month cycles. The optimum least squares fitting (LSF) curves calculated with the 1-year and 6-month cycles explained the underlying variation of the chickenpox data. The LSF curves reproduced the bimodal and unimodal cycles that were clearly observed in northern and southern Japan, respectively. The data suggest that the second peaks in the bimodal cycles in the reported chickenpox cases in Japan occurred at a temperature of approximately 8·5 °C.

scholarly journals Challenging the State: Devolutionary Tenure Transitions for Saving and Expanding Forests

Human Ecology ◽  
2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Liz Alden Wily
Keyword(s):  
Rural Communities ◽  
Property Rights ◽  
Protected Areas ◽  
Forest Cover ◽  
Biological Diversity ◽  
Convention On Biological Diversity ◽  
Property Relations ◽  
The Will ◽  
Customary Land

AbstractI address a contentious element in forest property relations to illustrate the role of ownership in protecting and expanding of forest cover by examining the extent to which rural communities may legally own forests. The premise is that whilst state-owned protected areas have contributed enormously to forest survival, this has been insufficiently successful to justify the mass dispossession of customary land-owning communities this has entailed. Further, I argue that state co-option of community lands is unwarranted. Rural communities on all continents ably demonstrate the will and capacity to conserve forests – provided their customary ownership is legally recognized. I explore the property rights reforms now enabling this. The replication potential of community protected forestlands is great enough to deserve flagship status in global commitments to expand forest including in the upcoming new Convention on Biological Diversity (CBD).

scholarly journals Zonal aspects of the influence of forest cover change on runoff in northern river basins of Central Siberia

2021 ◽  
Vol 8 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
A. Onuchin ◽  
Т. Burenina ◽  
А. Shvidenko ◽  
D. Prysov ◽  
A. Musokhranova
Keyword(s):  
River Runoff ◽  
Catchment Area ◽  
Forest Cover ◽  
River Basins ◽  
Forest Vegetation ◽  
Middle Taiga ◽  
Northern Eurasia ◽  
Runoff Formation ◽  
Forest Tundra

Abstract Background Assessment of the reasons for the ambiguous influence of forests on the structure of the water balance is the subject of heated debate among forest hydrologists. Influencing the components of total evaporation, forest vegetation makes a significant contribution to the process of runoff formation, but this process has specific features in different geographical zones. The issues of the influence of forest vegetation on river runoff in the zonal aspect have not been sufficiently studied. Results Based on the analysis of the dependence of river runoff on forest cover, using the example of nine catchments located in the forest-tundra, northern and middle taiga of Northern Eurasia, it is shown that the share of forest cover in the total catchment area (percentage of forest cover, FCP) has different effects on runoff formation. Numerical experiments with the developed empirical models have shown that an increase in forest cover in the catchment area in northern latitudes contributes to an increase in runoff, while in the southern direction (in the middle taiga) extensive woody cover of catchments “works” to reduce runoff. The effectiveness of geographical zonality in regards to the influence of forests on runoff is more pronounced in the forest-tundra zone than in the zones of northern and middle taiga. Conclusion The study of this problem allowed us to analyze various aspects of the hydrological role of forests, and to show that forest ecosystems, depending on environmental conditions and the spatial distribution of forest cover, can transform water regimes in different ways. Despite the fact that the process of river runoff formation is controlled by many factors, such as temperature conditions, precipitation regime, geomorphology and the presence of permafrost, the models obtained allow us to reveal general trends in the dependence of the annual river runoff on the percentage of forest cover, at the level of catchments. The results obtained are consistent with the concept of geographic determinism, which explains the contradictions that exist in assessing the hydrological role of forests in various geographical and climatic conditions. The results of the study may serve as the basis for regulation of the forest cover of northern Eurasian river basins in order to obtain the desired hydrological effect depending on environmental and economic conditions.

Locking down behavioural compliance: The role of emotion and emotion regulation in breaches of COVID-19 mitigation measures in Aotearoa New Zealand

2021 ◽  
pp. 135910532110299
Author(s):  
Terise Broodryk ◽  
Kealagh Robinson
Keyword(s):  
Public Health ◽  
Young Adults ◽  
New Zealand ◽  
Health Behaviours ◽  
Mitigation Measures ◽  
Aotearoa New Zealand ◽  
High Knowledge ◽  
The Cost ◽  
Insight Into

Although anxiety and worry can motivate engagement with COVID-19 preventative behaviours, people may cognitively reframe these unpleasant emotions, restoring wellbeing at the cost of public health behaviours. New Zealand young adults ( n = 278) experiencing nationwide COVID-19 lockdown reported their worry, anxiety, reappraisal and lockdown compliance. Despite high knowledge of lockdown policies, 92.5% of participants reported one or more policy breaches ( M  = 2.74, SD = 1.86). Counter to predictions, no relationships were found between anxiety or worry with reappraisal or lockdown breaches. Findings highlight the importance of targeting young adults in promoting lockdown compliance and offer further insight into the role of emotion during a pandemic.

scholarly journals The effects of armed conflict on forest cover changes across temporal and spatial scales in the Colombian Amazon

2021 ◽  
Vol 21 (3) ◽  
Author(s):  
Oscar V. Bautista-Cespedes ◽  
Louise Willemen ◽  
Augusto Castro-Nunez ◽  
Thomas A. Groen
Keyword(s):  
Armed Conflict ◽  
Forest Cover ◽  
Spatial Scales ◽  
Armed Forces ◽  
Peace Negotiations ◽  
Post Conflict ◽  
Forest Cover Changes ◽  
The Government ◽  
Colombian Amazon

AbstractThe Amazon rainforest covers roughly 40% of Colombia’s territory and has important global ecological functions. For more than 50 years, an internal war in the country has shaped this region. Peace negotiations between the government and the Revolutionary Armed Forces of Colombia (FARC) initiated in 2012 resulted in a progressive de-escalation of violence and a complete ceasefire in 2016. This study explores the role of different deforestation drivers including armed conflict variables, in explaining deforestation for three periods between 2001 and 2015. Iterative regression analyses were carried out for two spatial extents: the entire Colombian Amazon and a subset area which was most affected by deforestation. The results show that conflict variables have positive relationships with deforestation; yet, they are not among the main variables explaining deforestation. Accessibility and biophysical variables explain more variation. Nevertheless, conflict variables show divergent influence on deforestation depending on the period and scale of analysis. Based on these results, we develop deforestation risk maps to inform the design of forest conservation efforts in the post-conflict period.

Enhanced Information Recovery in 2D On-and Off-Resonance Nutation NQR using the Maximum Entropy Method

1996 ◽  
Vol 51 (5-6) ◽  
pp. 337-347 ◽  
Author(s):  
Mariusz Maćkowiak ◽  
Piotr Kątowski
Keyword(s):  
Maximum Entropy ◽  
Maximum Entropy Method ◽  
Theoretical Description ◽  
Entropy Method ◽  
Zero Field ◽  
Resonance Effects ◽  
Information Recovery ◽  
Truncation Errors ◽  
Enhanced Resolution ◽  
2D Data

Abstract Two-dimensional zero-field nutation NQR spectroscopy has been used to determine the full quadrupolar tensor of spin - 3/2 nuclei in serveral molecular crystals containing the 3 5 Cl and 7 5 As nuclei. The problems of reconstructing 2D-nutation NQR spectra using conventional methods and the advantages of using implementation of the maximum entropy method (MEM) are analyzed. It is shown that the replacement of conventional Fourier transform by an alternative data processing by MEM in 2D NQR spectroscopy leads to sensitivity improvement, reduction of instrumental artefacts and truncation errors, shortened data acquisition times and suppression of noise, while at the same time increasing the resolution. The effects of off-resonance irradiation in nutation experiments are demonstrated both experimentally and theoretically. It is shown that off-resonance nutation spectroscopy is a useful extension of the conventional on-resonance experiments, thus facilitating the determination of asymmetry parameters in multiple spectrum. The theoretical description of the off-resonance effects in 2D nutation NQR spectroscopy is given, and general exact formulas for the asymmetry parameter are obtained. In off-resonance conditions, the resolution of the nutation NQR spectrum decreases with the spectrometer offset. However, an enhanced resolution can be achieved by using the maximum entropy method in 2D-data reconstruction.

Estimating the distribution of primary reflection coefficients

Geophysics ◽  
2003 ◽  
Vol 68 (4) ◽  
pp. 1417-1422 ◽  
Author(s):  
Danilo R. Velis
Keyword(s):  
Maximum Entropy ◽  
Maximum Entropy Method ◽  
Entropy Method ◽  
Reflection Coefficients ◽  
Log Data ◽  
Neuquen Basin ◽  
Neuquén Basin ◽  
Skewness And Kurtosis

The distribution of primary reflection coefficients can be estimated by means of the maximum entropy method, giving rise to smooth nonparametric functions which are consistent with the data. Instead of using classical moments (e.g. skewness and kurtosis) to constraint the maximization, nonconventional sample statistics help to improve the quality of the estimates. Results using real log data from various wells located in the Neuquen Basin (Argentina) show the effectiveness of the method to estimate both robust and consistent distributions that may be used to simulate realistic sequences.

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