Presidential Primary Turnout 1972–2016

2016 ◽  
Vol 49 (04) ◽  
pp. 755-760 ◽  
Author(s):  
Lonna Rae Atkeson ◽  
Cherie D. Maestas
Keyword(s):  
Primary Elections ◽  
Aggregate Level ◽  
Presidential Nomination ◽  
Presidential Primary ◽  
Meaningful Participation ◽  
Institutional Structures ◽  
Micro Level ◽  
Using Data ◽  
Presidential Nominations

ABSTRACTWe explore the implications of sequential presidential primary elections for turnout in selecting the presidential party nominees. Drawing from a micro-level theory of participation in sequential elections, we develop a set of aggregate-level hypotheses that tease out different ways that candidate mobilization efforts as well as the legal and institutional structures within a sequential contest influence turnout in presidential nomination contests. Using data from all state primary elections from 1972–2016, we find that electorates facing winnowed candidate pools, and those with contests after the effective endings to presidential contests have substantially reduced turnout that effectively disenfranchises voters in many states. Sequenced primary elections lead to lower overall turnout and less meaningful participation for many voters during presidential nominations contests.

Reforming the Presidential Nomination Process

2009 ◽  
Vol 42 (01) ◽  
pp. 27-32 ◽  
Author(s):  
Caroline Tolbert ◽  
Peverill Squire
Keyword(s):  
Primary Elections ◽  
Recent History ◽  
National Committee ◽  
Presidential Nomination ◽  
Presidential Primary ◽  
Presidential Nominations

The 2008 presidential nomination was marked by the most aggressive frontloading in recent history; the process was a mess from the outset. Frontloading is the trend in recent presidential nominations in which states schedule their primaries and caucuses near the beginning of the delegate-selection season to have a greater impact on the process. In 1976, 10% of the delegates had been chosen by March 2. In 2008, 70% of the delegates had been chosen by that same date. As part of their ongoing efforts to address frontloading and other problems, both the Democratic National Committee (DNC) and Republican National Committee (RNC) revised the schedules and rules for 2008 presidential primary elections and caucuses.

scholarly journals The Matter of Chance: Auditing Web Search Results Related to the 2020 U.S. Presidential Primary Elections Across Six Search Engines

2021 ◽  
pp. 089443932110068
Author(s):  
Aleksandra Urman ◽  
Mykola Makhortykh ◽  
Roberto Ulloa
Keyword(s):  
Search Engine ◽  
Search Engines ◽  
Large Scale ◽  
Web Search ◽  
Primary Elections ◽  
Virtual Agents ◽  
Search Results ◽  
Presidential Primary ◽  
Large Scale Analysis ◽  
Algorithmic Information

We examine how six search engines filter and rank information in relation to the queries on the U.S. 2020 presidential primary elections under the default—that is nonpersonalized—conditions. For that, we utilize an algorithmic auditing methodology that uses virtual agents to conduct large-scale analysis of algorithmic information curation in a controlled environment. Specifically, we look at the text search results for “us elections,” “donald trump,” “joe biden,” “bernie sanders” queries on Google, Baidu, Bing, DuckDuckGo, Yahoo, and Yandex, during the 2020 primaries. Our findings indicate substantial differences in the search results between search engines and multiple discrepancies within the results generated for different agents using the same search engine. It highlights that whether users see certain information is decided by chance due to the inherent randomization of search results. We also find that some search engines prioritize different categories of information sources with respect to specific candidates. These observations demonstrate that algorithmic curation of political information can create information inequalities between the search engine users even under nonpersonalized conditions. Such inequalities are particularly troubling considering that search results are highly trusted by the public and can shift the opinions of undecided voters as demonstrated by previous research.

Pentecostalism as an Informal Political Institution: Experimental Evidence from Ghana

2014 ◽  
Vol 7 (4) ◽  
pp. 761-787 ◽  
Author(s):  
John F. McCauley
Keyword(s):  
Experimental Evidence ◽  
Dictator Game ◽  
Informal Institutions ◽  
Informal Institution ◽  
Resource Endowment ◽  
The Status ◽  
Micro Level ◽  
New Form ◽  
Using Data ◽  
Cultural Leaders

AbstractInformal institutions continue to govern political exchange in Africa, but the traditional, ethnic-based form of “big man rule” is now threatened by an alternative informal institution — charismatic Pentecostalism. This study evaluates the status of Pentecostalism empirically, in a micro-level experiment in Ghana. Using data from a variant of the dictator game, in which participants divide a resource endowment with randomly assigned partners as well as cultural leaders, the study provides evidence of Pentecostal exclusivity, excessive allegiance to leaders, and a shift away from ethnic-based patronage to Pentecostal patronage. As Pentecostalism continues to expand, these findings suggest a modification in the exchange of resources for loyalty in Africa, and grounds for viewing the movement as a new form of big man rule in the region.

Forecasting Presidential Nominations in 2016: #WePredictedClintonANDTrump

2016 ◽  
Vol 49 (04) ◽  
pp. 691-695 ◽  
Author(s):  
Andrew J. Dowdle ◽  
Randall E. Adkins ◽  
Karen Sebold ◽  
Jarred Cuellar
Keyword(s):  
Conventional Wisdom ◽  
Hillary Clinton ◽  
Donald Trump ◽  
Presidential Nomination ◽  
Presidential Nominations

ABSTRACTA number of scholars successfully modeled and predicted presidential nomination outcomes from 1996–2008. However, dramatic changes occurred in subsequent years that would seem to make replicating these results challenging at best. Building on those earlier studies, we utilize a series of OLS models that included measures of preprimary resources and early campaign successes or failures to forecast that Hillary Clinton and Donald Trump would win the Democratic and Republican presidential nominations in 2016. This outcome suggests that some fundamental factors governing nomination outcomes have not changed despite the conventional wisdom.

scholarly journals Globalization and populism in Europe

Public Choice ◽  
2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Andreas Bergh ◽  
Anders Kärnä
Keyword(s):  
Positive Association ◽  
Economic Globalization ◽  
European Countries ◽  
Political Polarization ◽  
Right Wing ◽  
Left Wing ◽  
Country Level ◽  
Eu Membership ◽  
Micro Level ◽  
Using Data

AbstractRecent micro-level studies have suggested that globalization—in particular, economic globalization and trade with China—breeds political polarization and populism. This study examines whether or not those results generalize by examining the country-level association between vote shares for European populist parties and economic globalization. Using data on vote shares for 267 right-wing and left-wing populist parties in 33 European countries during 1980–2017, and globalization data from the KOF institute, we find no evidence of a positive association between (economic or other types of) globalization and populism. EU membership is associated with a 4–6-percentage-point larger vote share for right-wing populist parties.

Black Athenians: Making and Resisting Racialized Symbolic Boundaries in the Greek Street Market

2019 ◽  
Vol 49 (3) ◽  
pp. 291-317
Author(s):  
Max Papadantonakis
Keyword(s):  
Social Distance ◽  
Symbolic Interactionism ◽  
Ethnographic Study ◽  
Immigrant Workers ◽  
Symbolic Boundaries ◽  
Stigma And Discrimination ◽  
Interaction Order ◽  
Micro Level ◽  
Using Data ◽  
Of Greece

In this article, I show how groups and individuals maintain racialized symbolic boundaries at the micro-level of personal interactions. Using data collected during an ethnographic study in Athens, Greece, where I worked as a fruit vendor in a street market, I detail how local Greek vendors and immigrant workers use language, gesture, olfaction, along with their interpretations of faith and sexuality to reproduce patterns of social distance that allow for racialized stigma and discrimination. I apply the framework of symbolic interactionism and draw from literature on symbolic boundaries to explore how immigrant street market workers experience and resist racialization throughout the interaction order. I show that racialization underlies perceptions of the immigrant “other,” especially in the case of Greece where race is often ignored as a crucial factor.

Conditional Arbiters: The Limits of Political Party Influence in Presidential Nominations

2016 ◽  
Vol 49 (04) ◽  
pp. 709-715 ◽  
Author(s):  
Wayne P. Steger
Keyword(s):  
Social Media ◽  
Political Party ◽  
Presidential Election ◽  
Campaign Finance ◽  
Elected Officials ◽  
Data Sets ◽  
Presidential Nomination ◽  
Party Elites ◽  
The Invisible ◽  
Presidential Nominations

ABSTRACTThe 2016 Republican presidential nomination challenges arguments about political party insiders’ influence on the outcome. This article argues, first, that party insider influence is conditional on the participation, coalescence, and timing of party stakeholders behind a front-runner during the invisible primary, and second, that party insider influence has probably declined since the 2000 presidential election. Data on endorsements by elite elected officials in open presidential nominations from 1984 to 2016 show that party insiders’ participation and convergence of support behind the front-runner is less extensive than what was found by Cohen, Karol, Noel, and Zaller (2008), though the data sets differ. Party insiders participate and unify more readily when the party coalition is stable and there is a candidate in the race who has demonstrable national support. Party elites remain on the sidelines when the party coalition is divided or when there is uncertainty about the appeal of candidates (Ryan 2011; Whitby 2014). The potency of insider endorsements likely has declined with the rise of social media, the changing campaign finance landscape, and the reemergence of populism in each party.

scholarly journals Qualification and skill mismatches: Europe in a cross-national perspective

2018 ◽  
pp. 151-188 ◽  
Author(s):  
Santiago Budría ◽  
Ana I. Moro-Egido
Keyword(s):  
Job Characteristics ◽  
Aggregate Level ◽  
Eu Countries ◽  
Using Data ◽  
National Perspective ◽  
The Eu ◽  
Cross National

This paper examines patterns in qualification and skill mismatches between countries using data from the CEDEFOP European Skills and Jobs Survey for 28 EU countries. We assess the incidence of both types of mismatches across the EU and document the higher incidence of over instead of under qualification and skilling. The analysis of the determinants of both overqualification and overskilling shows that it is worth exploring qualification and skills mismatches separately, as they are associated with different worker profiles, job characteristics and country aggregate features. Finally, we are able to account for the contribution of aggregate level variables in explaining the incidence of mismatches across the population and countries. They are crucial for the case of overqualification, and as important as individual and job characteristics for overskilling.

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