scholarly journals Model risk: illuminating the black box

2017 ◽  
Vol 23 ◽  
Author(s):  
R. Black ◽  
A. Tsanakas ◽  
A. D. Smith ◽  
M. B. Beck ◽  
I. D. Maclugash ◽  
...  

AbstractThis paper presents latest thinking from the Institute and Faculty of Actuaries’ Model Risk Working Party and follows on from their Phase I work, Model Risk: Daring to Open the Black Box. This is a more practical paper and presents the contributors’ experiences of model risk gained from a wide range of financial and non-financial organisations with suggestions for good practice and proven methods to reduce model risk. After a recap of the Phase I work, examples of model risk communication are given covering communication: to the Board; to the regulator; and to external stakeholders. We present a practical framework for model risk management and quantification with examples of the key actors, processes and cultural challenge. Lessons learned are then presented from other industries that make extensive use of models and include the weather forecasting, software and aerospace industries. Finally, a series of case studies in practical model risk management and mitigation are presented from the contributors’ own experiences covering primarily financial services.

Author(s):  
Vartika Koolwal ◽  
Sunil Kumar ◽  
Krishna Kumar Mohbey

Blockchain is the new “buzz” word that has attracted the attention of industries and businesses. It is an innovative technology that provides information exchange in an efficient and transparent manner. It has a wide range of application varying from cryptocurrency, healthcare, risk management, education, financial services, internet of things (IoT), border security to public services. However, security issues and threats of this novel technology is also an important topic. In this chapter, the authors provide a comprehensive study of applications, challenges, and issues and how to combat them in the blockchain. Major areas of concern are security, scalability, cryptocurrency's malicious attacks, etc.


Ekonomika ◽  
2013 ◽  
Vol 92 (1) ◽  
pp. 97-119
Author(s):  
Filomena Jasevičienė ◽  
Vaida Valiulienė

Abstract. There are a number of different financial market institutions such as banks, credit unions, leasing and insurance companies, as well as capital market players in Lithuania. The bank sector makes the largest part of the financial market (more than 80%). Thus, the bank sector has a considerable influence on the country’s economy. Banks are not specialized in Lithuania, i.e. they are universal banks which seek to provide quite a wide range of financial services. The successful performance of a bank mostly depends on how it succeeds to manage the risks. The problems of risk management are becoming an object of exceptional attention while enhancing the variety of analysed risks as well as developing the investigation instruments both in the whole world and in Lithuania. Loans make the largest part of bank assets. So, the loan risk management is one of the most important guarantees of safe banking. To manage effectively the bank credit risk, it should be adequately evaluated.Key words: banks, credit risk, credit risk management, credit quality, non-performing loansp>


2015 ◽  
Vol 21 (2) ◽  
pp. 297-313

This abstract relates to the following paper: AggarwalA., BeckM. B., CannM., FordT., GeorgescuD., MorjariaN.,SmithA., TaylorY., TsanakasA., WittsL., YeI. Model risk – daring to open up the black box. British Actuarial Journal, doi: 10.1017/S1357321715000276.


Author(s):  
Paul Franklin

Risk management is the subject of increasing attention in recent years. In the US, when Federal funds are committed to projects, risk management is a required programmatic activity. Even when it is not mandated by law or regulation, risk management is prudent for expensive, long-duration projects. Frequently, risk management is based on a risk register, and often captures as a list of typical problems with design and construction that a contractor has experienced. Risk registers vary in quality and usefulness. Some contractor submissions appear to be more “pro-forma” documents, while more useful risk registers will include anticipated risks tailored to the complexity of the scope of work and the contractor’s anticipated solution. This qualitative approach can develop a reasonable view of key risks and work to mitigate them. Recent experience at Arup has shown that this approach, while valuable as an initial approach, is limited by its quantitative nature. This paper will explore some of the key lessons learned and emerging practices that have been successfully used in recent work in detail. Key topics include: • While the essential elements of risk management apply across a wide range of markets, the planning and construction of risk management for due diligence, privately funded and partnership funded (both government and PPP) projects require different emphases and tailored approaches. • Appropriate risk structuring is required to identify key project risks that may be unrelated or marginally related to design and construction. Developing clear and effective ancillary risk statements (e.g., for marketing, finance, permitting and regulatory requirements) is important to successful risk management. • Where partnering is used for funding, there is a greater need for clarity and good communication. Planning documents require special consideration to minimize difficulties. Planning documents also need to be efficient and effective. • Large, sometimes geographically diverse, teams benefit from alternative approaches to risk workshops. • Large, expensive and long duration projects benefit by shifting risk analysis toward a more quantitative approach. Modeling techniques such as Monte Carlo simulation require special software (@Risk or Primavera) and sound input. Analyses that move risk statements from the essentially qualitative (such as severity of 4 and likelihood of 3) to agreed quantitative inputs are important. • Cost and schedule contingency are key concerns for funding agencies, whether in-house or external. The underlying structure for effectively constructing contingency depends on the contracting structure, sequencing of work, unit price allowances and other factors, in addition to the analysis of the contingency requirements of technical and other specific risks. • Special analyses for items of particular concern, for instance, the adequacy of escalation allowances or geotechnical risks, can also be helpful, particularly in the context of emerging technologies such as HSR. Risk management is coming of age, and is more than a risk register. Projects benefit from a more qualitative approach. Not every technique applies to every project, of course, but most projects, small and large, can benefit from a more structured, quantitative approach to risk management.


1998 ◽  
Vol 38 (8-9) ◽  
pp. 443-451 ◽  
Author(s):  
S. H. Hyun ◽  
J. C. Young ◽  
I. S. Kim

To study propionate inhibition kinetics, seed cultures for the experiment were obtained from a propionate-enriched steady-state anaerobic Master Culture Reactor (MCR) operated under a semi-continuous mode for over six months. The MCR received a loading of 1.0 g propionate COD/l-day and was maintained at a temperature of 35±1°C. Tests using serum bottle reactors consisted of four phases. Phase I tests were conducted for measurement of anaerobic gas production as a screening step for a wide range of propionate concentrations. Phase II was a repeat of phase I but with more frequent sampling and detailed analysis of components in the liquid sample using gas chromatography. In phase III, different concentrations of acetate were added along with 1.0 g propionate COD/l to observe acetate inhibition of propionate degradation. Finally in phase IV, different concentrations of propionate were added along with 100 and 200 mg acetate/l to confirm the effect of mutual inhibition. Biokinetic and inhibition coefficients were obtained using models of Monod, Haldane, and Han and Levenspiel through the use of non-linear curve fitting technique. Results showed that the values of kp, maximum propionate utilization rate, and Ksp, half-velocity coefficient for propionate conversion, were 0.257 mg HPr/mg VSS-hr and 200 mg HPr/l, respectively. The values of kA, maximum acetate utilization rate, and KsA, half-velocity coefficient for acetate conversion, were 0.216 mg HAc/mg VSS-hr and 58 mg HAc/l, respectively. The results of phase III and IV tests indicated there was non-competitive inhibition when the acetate concentration in the reactor exceeded 200 mg/l.


2021 ◽  
Vol 14 (2) ◽  
pp. 79
Author(s):  
Gratiela Georgiana Noja ◽  
Eleftherios Thalassinos ◽  
Mirela Cristea ◽  
Irina Maria Grecu

This paper empirically evidences the role played by board characteristics (skills, diversity, structure, independence) in supporting risk management disclosure and shaping the financial performance of European companies operating in the financial services sector. We exploit data selected from Thomson Reuters Eikon database in 2020 for the last fiscal year 2019 (FY0) on a longitudinal sample of 144 companies with the head offices in Europe (25 countries). Following an original empirical approach based on two modern financial econometric techniques, namely structural equation modelling (SEM) and network analysis through Gaussian graphical models (GGMs), the research endeavor outlines the decisive importance of an optimal board size, enhanced management skills, upward gender diversity (encompassed by women participation on board management), and structure (mainly a two-tier type, one management board, and a distinctive supervisory board) as fundamentals of risk management strategies, leading to improved financial achievements and a higher profitability for the analyzed companies.


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