A NOTE ON OPENNESS AND INFLATION TARGETING: IMPLICATIONS FOR THE UNPLEASANT FISCAL ARITHMETIC

2013 ◽  
Vol 18 (5) ◽  
pp. 1187-1207 ◽  
Author(s):  
Helder Ferreira de Mendonça ◽  
Igor da Silva Veiga
Keyword(s):  
Interest Rate ◽  
Emerging Economies ◽  
Public Debt ◽  
Capital Mobility ◽  
Inflation Targeting ◽  
Financial Openness ◽  
Capital Account Liberalization ◽  
High Interest Rate ◽  
The Interest Rate ◽  
Primary Surplus

Emerging economies that have adopted inflation targeting and that combine low credibility, high public debt, and a high interest rate suffer from a typical problem. Increases in the interest rate to reduce departures of inflation from the target imply that a higher primary surplus is required for stabilizing public debt/GDP ratio. This tricky situation is known as “unpleasant fiscal arithmetic” (UFA). This article develops a theoretical model showing how increased financial openness and capital account liberalization can mitigate UFA. Furthermore, empirical evidence from the Brazilian case through OLS, GMM, and GMM system methods is offered. The findings show that increases in capital mobility and financial openness work as a commitment technology, which contributes to the success of the inflation targeting and thus reduces the risk of UFA.

INTEREST RATE TARGETS AND SPECULATIVE ATTACKS ON PUBLIC DEBT

2018 ◽  
Vol 23 (07) ◽  
pp. 2698-2716 ◽  
Author(s):  
Pompeo Della Posta
Keyword(s):  
Interest Rate ◽  
Interest Rates ◽  
Euro Area ◽  
Public Debt ◽  
Nonlinear Behavior ◽  
Lender Of Last Resort ◽  
Speculative Attacks ◽  
The Interest Rate ◽  
Exchange Rate Target Zones ◽  
Primary Surplus

The application of exchange rate target zones modeling to interest rates allows interpreting the puzzles that emerged with the public debt euro area crisis, namely the nonlinear behavior of the interest rates and the fact that some stand-alone countries, not belonging to the euro area, have not been subject to speculative attacks in spite of equally large public debt-to-gross domestic product (GDP) ratios. As a matter of fact, this model shows that in the case of a noncredible upper threshold for the interest rate (that may be due to both the lack of room for increasing further the required government primary surplus and/or the absence of a monetary authority acting as a lender of last resort), the resulting public debt unsustainability determines an interest rate nonlinearity and makes the crisis possible for public debt levels that would be stable in the presence of a credible interest rate target.

scholarly journals What Does Pakistan Have to Join the Inflation Targeters’ Club—a Royal Flush or a Seven-Deuce Offsuit?

2012 ◽  
Vol 17 (2) ◽  
pp. 35-62
Author(s):  
Syed Kumail Abbas Rizvi ◽  
Bushra Naqvi ◽  
Sayyid Salman Rizavi
Keyword(s):  
Interest Rate ◽  
Emerging Economies ◽  
Significant Relationship ◽  
Inflation Targeting ◽  
Granger Causality Test ◽  
Causality Test ◽  
The Core ◽  
Core Requirements ◽  
The Interest Rate

The economic and institutional structure required to successfully adopt and implement an inflation targeting framework (ITF) is often lacking in emerging economies. This paper evaluates these structures both qualitatively and quantitatively for Pakistan’s economy. Although our comprehensive assessment finds that many of the core requirements remain unrealized, the literature and real-time experience argue that an ITF remains possible for emerging economies even in the absence of these conditions. We investigate whether—were the State Bank of Pakistan to adopt an ITF—there exists a stable and significant relationship between the policy rate (monetary tool) and inflation measure (objective). It is important to analyze this bivariate relationship, given the key role of the interest rate in mitigating deviations between actual and target inflation when working within an ITF. To illustrate this relationship, we use Granger Causality test, but our estimates fail to find any significant link between the interest rate and inflation. On the basis of our overall findings, we suggest that Pakistan, in the absence of most of the fundamental requirements of an ITF, is perhaps not yet ready for it.

scholarly journals Monetary Policy in the Post Keynesian Theoretical Framework

2017 ◽  
Vol 37 (1) ◽  
pp. 45-64
Author(s):  
FÁBIO HENRIQUE BITTES TERRA ◽  
PHILIP ARESTIS
Keyword(s):  
Monetary Policy ◽  
Interest Rate ◽  
Inflation Targeting ◽  
Debt Management ◽  
Policy Framework ◽  
Original Writings ◽  
Policy Model ◽  
Original Contribution ◽  
The Interest Rate ◽  
Monetary Policy Framework

ABSTRACT The purpose of this contribution is to develop a Post Keynesian monetary policy model, presenting its goals, tools, and channels. The original contribution this paper develops, following (Keynes’s 1936, 1945) proposals, is the use of debt management as an instrument of monetary policy, along with the interest rate and regulation. Moreover, this paper draws its monetary policy model by broadly and strongly relying on Keynes’s original writings. A monetary policy model erected upon this basis relates itself directly to the Post Keynesian efforts to offer a monetary policy framework substantially different from the Inflation Targeting Regime of the New Macroeconomic Consensus.

The interest rate–inflation relationship under an inflation targeting regime: The case of Turkey

2012 ◽  
Vol 23 (4) ◽  
pp. 476-485 ◽  
Author(s):  
Nezir Kose ◽  
Furkan Emirmahmutoglu ◽  
Sezgin Aksoy
Keyword(s):  
Interest Rate ◽  
Inflation Targeting ◽  
The Interest Rate

scholarly journals Liquidity Choice and Misallocation of Credit

2019 ◽  
Vol 2019 (284) ◽  
Author(s):  
Ehsan Ebrahimy
Keyword(s):  
Interest Rate ◽  
Type I ◽  
Pareto Improvement ◽  
Government Bonds ◽  
High Interest Rate ◽  
Liquid Asset ◽  
Constrained Efficiency ◽  
Liquid Type ◽  
The Interest Rate

This paper studies a novel type of misallocation of credit between investments of varying liquidity. One type of investment is more liquid, i.e., its return is more pledgeable, and the other is more productive. Low liquidities of both investment types imply that the allocation of credit is constrained inefficient and that there is overinvestment in the liquid type. Constrained inefficient equilibria feature non-positive, i.e., one less than or equal the economy’s growth rate, and yet too high interest rate, too much investment and too little consumption. Financial development can reduce long-term welfare and output in a constrained inefficient equilibrium if it raises the liquidity of the liquid type. I show a maximum liquid asset ratio or a simple debt tax can achieve constrained efficiency. Introducing government bonds can make Pareto improvement whenever it does not raise the interest rate.

scholarly journals What to Smooth: Rate of Interest or the Foreign Exchange? Turkish Monetary Policy under Turbulent Times

2014 ◽  
Vol 10 (3) ◽  
Author(s):  
A. Erinc Yeldan ◽  
Gunes Kolsuz ◽  
Burcu Unuvar
Keyword(s):  
Interest Rate ◽  
Foreign Exchange ◽  
Great Recession ◽  
Inflation Targeting ◽  
Policy Option ◽  
The Great Recession ◽  
Turbulent Times ◽  
Exchange Markets ◽  
The Interest Rate ◽  
Republic Of Turkey

AbstractThis paper studies the new monetary stance of the Central Bank of Republic of Turkey (CBRT) during the Great Recession. We note that characteristics of the post-1997 “Great Moderation” revealed interest rate smoothing as a valid policy option for the inflation targeting central banks. Utilizing econometric analysis on a general form of a Taylor Rule, we search for the relative weights of the objective function of the CBRT over Jan 2010–Dec 2013. We find that over the Great Recession, the CBRT’s focus on “interest smoothing” had been maintained; and yet the burden of adjustment fell disproportionately on the foreign exchange markets. Furthermore, weak credibility of the CBRT, lack of a simple policy rule, and noisy policy communications evidence that pre-requisites of the interest rate smoothing are not being fulfilled. Inevitable sharp policy corrections that follow smoothing periods proved insufficient against the voluminous global flows.

Central bank transparency and the interest rate channel: Evidence from emerging economies

2015 ◽  
Vol 48 ◽  
pp. 167-174 ◽  
Author(s):  
Stephanos Papadamou ◽  
Moïse Sidiropoulos ◽  
Eleftherios Spyromitros
Keyword(s):  
Interest Rate ◽  
Central Bank ◽  
Emerging Economies ◽  
Central Bank Transparency ◽  
The Interest Rate ◽  
Interest Rate Channel

Inflation targeting credibility and reputation: The consequences for the interest rate

2009 ◽  
Vol 26 (6) ◽  
pp. 1228-1238 ◽  
Author(s):  
Helder Ferreira de Mendonça ◽  
Gustavo José de Guimarães e Souza
Keyword(s):  
Interest Rate ◽  
Inflation Targeting ◽  
The Interest Rate

scholarly journals THE DETERMINANTS OF INTEREST RATE SPREAD AMONG COMMERCIAL BANKS IN KENYA

2017 ◽  
Vol 2 (5) ◽  
pp. 29
Author(s):  
Leah Njoroge ◽  
Mercy Warui ◽  
Catherine Mbogo ◽  
Margaret Chiera ◽  
Dr. Chogii
Keyword(s):  
Interest Rate ◽  
Interest Rates ◽  
Market Structure ◽  
Significant Relationship ◽  
Commercial Banks ◽  
Banking Sector ◽  
Unique Contribution ◽  
High Interest Rate ◽  
Interest Rate Spread ◽  
The Interest Rate

Purpose: To establish the determinants of interest rate spread among commercial banks in Kenya. Methodology: The study utilized a descriptive survey research design. Findings: The results indicated that the commercial banking sector has witnessed a gradual rise in the Interest rate spread. Results also showed that the mean of market structure has been fluctuating with year (2010) being the lowest with mean of 4 and year (2012) being the highest with mean 12. Results also showed that there was no regulation from the year (2005) to the year (2009) but it was later adopted whereas regulations shoot steadily to mean of 1.0 in the year (2009) and remained in the same level the rest of the years. The regression results indicate that there is a positive and significant relationship between market structure, credit risk and interest spread. The regression results also indicated that there is a positive but insignificant relationship between access to information and interest spread. Further, the results indicated that there is a negative and significant relationship between regulation and interest spread. Unique contribution to theory, practice and policy: The study is important to the management of Commercial banks as it will provide an insight on the factors influencing interest rate spread among commercial banks in Kenya. The results of this study will provide information to policy makers and other stakeholders in the financial sector (especially the banks) to come up with strategies that help in dealing with the high interest rate spread experience in the banking sector and thus improve on the financial performance of the organisations. It may be used as a tool for persuading commercial banks to reduce their interest rates spread and hence increase their volume of business, which of course would compensate the loss in the interest rate spread. The study will also be invaluable to the government and CBK. This is because the monetary policy framework of Central Bank of Kenya and its implementation will be guided by a need to ensure, among others: realistic interest rate spreads that encourage financial deepening and a safe, sound, efficient and competitive banking system through discreet risk management. These findings therefore might influence the effectiveness of economic policies. The research results will also be important to scholars and researchers as it will add to the existing pool of knowledge.

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