The Asymmetric Impact of Oil Prices on Unemployment in the MENA Region

We examine the effects of oil prices on unemployment rates in the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) over the period of 1991–2017. Using the panel nonlinear autoregressive distributed lag (panel NARDL) model, the results show that in the long run, positive changes of oil prices exert a positive (increasing) impact on the unemployment rate. However, negative changes in oil prices have a significant decreasing effect on the unemployment rate in the MENA region. We also find that the short run changes in oil prices do not show a significant effect on unemployment rates. Our findings are robust to an alternative measure of oil rents per capita and in line with predictions of the resource curse hypothesis. Countries with higher dependency on natural resource rents experience, on average, a slower long run economic growth rate (and thus higher unemployment rates), compared with countries with lower dependency.

Trade Potential in Arab Nations: The Case of the GCC and PAFTA

We examine trade flows for Arab nations concentrating on the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) and Pan-Arab Free Trade Area (PAFTA) areas, to identify opportunities to enhance intra-Arab trade and facilitate regional integration. We employ panel data for the years 2003–2017 and a structural gravity model together with an “aggregate” trade potential measure that treats the GCC and PAFTA areas as single countries. Results suggest that, by 2015, intra-area trade had reached maximum capacity for both blocs. Potential to trade also reached capacity with many of the largest Free Trade Areas around the world, however, opportunities for trade expansion that still exist with the MERCOSUR and ASEAN, as well as many distinct destinations, can assist in strategic planning to enhance integration efforts.

Spatial Dimensions of Sectoral Labor Productivity Convergence in Turkey: A Spatial Panel Data Approach

The purpose of this study is to investigate spatial dimensions of interregional labor productivity convergence in Turkey between 2005 and 2011 period in three sector disaggregation. We employed spatial panel data approach to investigate the absolute and conditional beta convergence. Annual gross value added per worker data has been used as labor productivity proxy for 26 sub-regions. Analysis results show us that absolute and conditional convergence is highly significant for all agriculture, industry and services sector and also in sectors total. We also found that, while industry, services and sectors total show significant spatial dependency, there is no strong evidence of spatial interaction in agriculture sector for Turkey. Structural problems of Turkish agriculture sector are considered to be the main reasons behind this finding.

Towards Understanding Vegetables Consumption Behaviour in Iran: A Full Box-Cox Double-Hurdle Application

Using Iran’s 2010–2011 household survey data on income and expenditure, this paper estimates the demand for vegetable consumption. Based on the Vuong’s (1989) Likelihood Ratio Test for Model Selection and Non-Nested Hypothesis, a full Box-Cox double-hurdle model adjusted for heteroskedasticity, dependency, and normality was estimated to uncover factors underlying Iranian households’ decisions to purchase and consume vegetables. Results show that all demographic, socioeconomic, and geographical variables significantly explain vegetable consumption behaviour in Iran. A positive relationship exists between educational attainment and the decision to purchase and consume vegetables. As well, households’ size and average age exert a statistically significant positive effect on vegetable consumption.

Political Stability, Firm Characteristics and Performance: Evidence from 6,083 Private Firms in the Middle East

Using firm-level data from an EBRD/EIB/WB joint survey covering more than 6,000 private firms in eight countries in the Middle East and North Africa, this paper (i) examines the relationship between firm characteristics and their perception of the effect of political instability on their operations and (ii) tests whether political instability has had a negative effect on firm performance. Using ordered and binary probit/logit models, we find that (i) export-oriented and larger-sized firms are more likely to report political instability as a sever obstacle to their operations. Using OLS and an endogenous treatment linear regression models, we find that (ii) the perception of political instability is negatively

Children’s Gender and Men’s Income: Evidence from Iran

In many societies, men work for more hours and acquire higher wages if they have sons versus daughters. Gender bias, higher returns to male children’s human capital, and higher costs of raising male children are hypothesized to explain this behavior. Among these, gender bias has received stronger support from empirical studies. Using a four-year panel dataset, we show that a different institutional setting may make men respond to their children’s gender differently. We study men’s income in a dotal society, Iran, where families are expected to provide dowry for their marrying daughters. We show that, in contrast to the findings in developed countries, Iranian men earn more income when they have daughters versus sons, and we argue that the institution of marriage is the major reason for this unconventional finding.