The impact of expected pensions on consumption: evidence from China

2021 ◽  
pp. 1-19
Author(s):  
Wei Zheng ◽  
Youji Lyu ◽  
Ruo Jia ◽  
Katja Hanewald
Keyword(s):  
Longitudinal Study ◽  
Domestic Consumption ◽  
Consumption Decisions ◽  
Working Age ◽  
Nationally Representative ◽  
Pension Benefits ◽  
The Impact

Abstract We study how pension participation and expected pension benefits affect working-age adults’ consumption based on a nationally representative dataset from the China Health and Retirement Longitudinal Study (CHARLS) during the period 2011–2018. We find that the consumption of working-age adults who participate in China's Residents' Basic Pension is 15.4% higher than that of non-participants. Furthermore, we find that if working-age adults' expected pension benefits increase by RMB 1, their consumption will increase by RMB 0.34. Overall, our findings suggest that pension expectations are critical to the consumption decisions of working-age adults and can, therefore, positively affect total domestic consumption.

scholarly journals Characteristics of those most vulnerable to employment changes during the COVID-19 pandemic: a nationally representative cross-sectional study in Wales

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Benjamin J Gray ◽  
Richard G Kyle ◽  
Alisha R Davies
Keyword(s):  
Employment Status ◽  
Employment Outcomes ◽  
Mental Wellbeing ◽  
Financial Security ◽  
Public Health Response ◽  
Cross Sectional ◽  
Working Age ◽  
Working Age Population ◽  
Nationally Representative ◽  
The Impact

AbstractBackgroundThe public health response to the SARS-CoV-2 (COVID-19) pandemic has had a detrimental impact on employment and there are concerns the impact may be greatest amongst the most vulnerable. We examined the characteristics of those who experienced changes in employment status during the initial phase of the pandemic.MethodsA cross-sectional, nationally representative household survey of the working age population (18-64 years) in Wales in June 2020. A total of 1,382 adults responded (6.9% response rate). Employment outcomes between February and May/June 2020 were (i) no change in employment status, (ii) a change in employment, (iii) unemployment, and (iv) furlough. Chi-squared tests and logistic regression models examined associations between demographics, health status and employment outcomes.ResultsOf the working age population in paid employment in February 2020, 3.2% were unemployed and 32.0% had been placed on furlough by June 2020. Groups more likely to be placed on furlough included younger (18-39 years) and older (50-64 years) workers, people from more deprived areas, in lower skilled jobs, living with pre-existing health conditions and from households with less financial security. Groups in poorer health (not good general health, low mental wellbeing) and from households containing a child or with less financial security were more likely to experience unemployment.ConclusionA number of vulnerable population groups were observed to experience detrimental employment outcomes during the initial stage of the COVID-19 pandemic. Targeted support is needed to mitigate against both the direct impacts on employment, and indirect impacts on financial insecurity and health.

Pension Reform in Russia: Assessing the Susceptibility of GDP Production to a Shift in the Number of the Working-Age Population

2019 ◽  
pp. 80-86
Author(s):  
T. P. Skufina ◽  
S. V. Baranov
Keyword(s):  
Pension Reform ◽  
Fixed Capital ◽  
Economic Effects ◽  
Pension Scheme ◽  
Retirement Age ◽  
Working Age ◽  
Working Age Population ◽  
Long Term Forecasting ◽  
The Impact

The presented study considers the susceptibility of gross domestic product (GDP) production to a shift in the number of the working-age population due to an increase in retirement age starting with 2019.Aim. The study aims to examine the quantitative assessments of GDP production in Russia with allowance for the changes in the number of the working-age population due to an increase in the actual retirement age.Tasks. The authors forecast the number of the working-age population with allowance for an increase in the retirement age; develop a model to establish a correlation between the number of the workingage population, investment in fixed capital, and GDP production; quantify the impact of the shift in the number of the working-age population on GDP production in Russia. Methods. This study is based on the results of modeling and long-term forecasting.Results. An economic-mathematical model to establish a correlation between the number of the working-age population, investment in fixed capital, and GDP production is presented. To specify the economic effects of a shift in the number of the working-age population due to an increase in the retirement age, Russia’s GDP production is forecasted for the “old” and “new” (increased retirement age) pension scheme. The forecast is provided for three variants of the number of the working-age population.Conclusions. It is found that with the “old” pension scheme with a lower retirement age GDP production across all three variants will decrease by 2036 compared to 2017. With regard to the “new” scheme that increases the retirement age, it is concluded that an increase in the retirement age is a factor that facilitates GDP production. However, its effect on economic growth will be insignificant.

scholarly journals Occasional and persistent frequent attenders and sickness absences in occupational health primary care: a longitudinal study in Finland

BMJ Open ◽  
2019 ◽  
Vol 9 (2) ◽  
pp. e024980 ◽  
Author(s):  
Tiia T M Reho ◽  
Salla A Atkins ◽  
Nina Talola ◽  
Markku P T Sumanen ◽  
Mervi Viljamaa ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Primary Care ◽  
Longitudinal Study ◽  
Occupational Health ◽  
Sick Leave ◽  
Diagnostic Codes ◽  
Frequent Attenders ◽  
Frequent Attendance ◽  
Increased Risk ◽  
Working Age

ObjectivesFrequent attenders (FAs) create a substantial portion of primary care workload but little is known about FAs’ sickness absences. The aim of the study is to investigate how occasional and persistent frequent attendance is associated with sickness absences among the working population in occupational health (OH) primary care.Setting and participantsThis is a longitudinal study using medical record data (2014–2016) from an OH care provider in Finland. In total, 59 676 patients were included and categorised into occasional and persistent FAs or non-FAs. Sick-leave episodes and their lengths were collected along with associated diagnostic codes. Logistic regression was used to analyse associations between FA status and sick leaves of different lengths (1–3, 4–14 and ≥15 days).ResultsBoth occasional and persistent FA had more and longer duration of sick leave than non-FA through the study years. Persistent FAs had consistently high absence rates. Occasional FAs had elevated absence rates even 2 years after their frequent attendance period. Persistent FAs (OR=11 95% CI 7.54 to 16.06 in 2016) and occasional FAs (OR=2.95 95% CI 2.50 to 3.49 in 2016) were associated with long (≥15 days) sickness absence when compared with non-FAs. Both groups of FAs had an increased risk of long-term sick leaves indicating a risk of disability pension.ConclusionBoth occasional and persistent FAs should be identified in primary care units caring for working-age patients. As frequent attendance is associated with long sickness absences and possibly disability pensions, rehabilitation should be directed at this group to prevent work disability.

Do expectations for post-retirement family and government support crowd out pre-retirement savings? Insights from the working-age population in Thailand

2021 ◽  
pp. 1-19
Author(s):  
Nopphol Witvorapong ◽  
Yong Yoon ◽  
Wiraporn Pothisiri
Keyword(s):  
Old Age ◽  
Filial Piety ◽  
Government Support ◽  
Financial Security ◽  
Retirement Savings ◽  
Family Transfers ◽  
Retirement Expectations ◽  
Working Age ◽  
Nationally Representative ◽  
The Government

Abstract Based on nationally representative data (N = 8,901), this study investigates the extent to which expectations for intra-family transfers and government assistance in old age impact the probability of saving for retirement among working-age individuals in Thailand. Results show that expectations for financial non-self-reliance and expectations that family support would constitute the most important source of old-age financial security reduce the probability that working-age individuals would save for retirement. Expectations for government support have no impact on average. Given that filial piety is weakening in Thailand, this study suggests that the government encourage pre-retirement savings more strongly.

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