Pension Reform in Russia: Assessing the Susceptibility of GDP Production to a Shift in the Number of the Working-Age Population

2019 ◽  
pp. 80-86
Author(s):  
T. P. Skufina ◽  
S. V. Baranov
Keyword(s):  
Pension Reform ◽  
Fixed Capital ◽  
Economic Effects ◽  
Pension Scheme ◽  
Retirement Age ◽  
Working Age ◽  
Working Age Population ◽  
Long Term Forecasting ◽  
The Impact

The presented study considers the susceptibility of gross domestic product (GDP) production to a shift in the number of the working-age population due to an increase in retirement age starting with 2019.Aim. The study aims to examine the quantitative assessments of GDP production in Russia with allowance for the changes in the number of the working-age population due to an increase in the actual retirement age.Tasks. The authors forecast the number of the working-age population with allowance for an increase in the retirement age; develop a model to establish a correlation between the number of the workingage population, investment in fixed capital, and GDP production; quantify the impact of the shift in the number of the working-age population on GDP production in Russia. Methods. This study is based on the results of modeling and long-term forecasting.Results. An economic-mathematical model to establish a correlation between the number of the working-age population, investment in fixed capital, and GDP production is presented. To specify the economic effects of a shift in the number of the working-age population due to an increase in the retirement age, Russia’s GDP production is forecasted for the “old” and “new” (increased retirement age) pension scheme. The forecast is provided for three variants of the number of the working-age population.Conclusions. It is found that with the “old” pension scheme with a lower retirement age GDP production across all three variants will decrease by 2036 compared to 2017. With regard to the “new” scheme that increases the retirement age, it is concluded that an increase in the retirement age is a factor that facilitates GDP production. However, its effect on economic growth will be insignificant.

scholarly journals ВЛИЯНИЕ ПОВЫШЕНИЯ ПЕНСИОННОГО ВОЗРАСТА НА ЧИСЛЕННОСТЬ НАСЕЛЕНИЯ ТРУДОСПОСОБНОГО ВОЗРАСТА

2019 ◽  
Author(s):  
T. Skufina ◽  
S. Baranov
Keyword(s):  
Pension Reform ◽  
Real Data ◽  
Production Functions ◽  
Retirement Age ◽  
Population Forecast ◽  
Macroeconomic Indicators ◽  
Working Age ◽  
The Russian Federation ◽  
Working Age Population ◽  
The Impact

Приведена постановка проблемы и значимость оценки влияния повышения пенсионного возраста на основные макроэкономические показатели. Рассмотрено влияние повышения пенсионного возраста на численность трудоспособного населения Российской Федерации. Анализ реальных данных и трех вариантов прогноза численности трудоспособного населения до 2036 г. указал на устойчивый спад численности трудоспособного населения, наблюдаемый с 2006 г. Приведены оценки авторов, указывающие, что повышение возраста выхода на пенсию приостановил устойчивую тенденцию снижения численности трудоспособного населения в России. Ключевые слова: пенсионная реформа, трудоспособное население, ВВП, производственные функции, прогноз. The article presents the problem and the importance of assessing the impact of raising the retirement age on the main macroeconomic indicators. The influence of increasing the retirement age on the number of ablebodied population of the Russian Federation is considered. Analysis of real data and three variants of the workingage population forecast up to 2036 pointed to a steady decline in the working age population observed since 2006. The authors estimates indicate that the increase in the retirement age has suspended the steady decline in the number of workingage population in Russia. Key words: pension reform, ablebodied population, GDP, production functions, forecast.

STUDY OF THE IMPACT OF RAISING THE RETIREMENT AGE ON ECONOMIC GROWTH IN THE DIGITAL ECONOMY IN RUSSIA AND EUROPE

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Svetlana Apenko ◽  
◽  
Olga Kiriliuk ◽  
Elena Legchilina ◽  
Tatiana Tsalko ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Quality Of Life ◽  
Economic Growth ◽  
Economic Policy ◽  
Labor Relations ◽  
Pension Reform ◽  
Digital Economy ◽  
Institutional Changes ◽  
Retirement Age ◽  
The Impact

The article presents the results of a study of the impact of pension reform in Russia on economic growth and quality of life in a digital economy, taking into account the experience of raising the retirement age in Europe. The aim of the study was to identify and analyze the impact of raising the retirement age on economic growth in the context of the development of digitalization in Russia and a comparative analysis with European countries. Results: the studies conducted allowed us to develop a system of indicators characterizing the impact of raising the retirement age on economic growth and the quality of life of the population in the context of digitalization. The authors found that raising the retirement age leads to a change in labor relations in Russia and Europe. The application of the proposed indicators can be used in the formation of a balanced state socio-economic policy in the field of institutional changes in the field of labor relations and raising the retirement age. The study was carried out under a grant from the RFBR № 19-010-00362 А.

scholarly journals Long-Term Employment Outcomes among Female Cancer Survivors

2020 ◽  
Vol 17 (8) ◽  
pp. 2751 ◽  
Author(s):  
Christine C. Ekenga ◽  
Eunsun Kwon ◽  
BoRin Kim ◽  
Sojung Park
Keyword(s):  
Cancer Survivors ◽  
Employment Status ◽  
The United States ◽  
Employment Outcomes ◽  
Hours Worked ◽  
Professional Workers ◽  
Working Age ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Female Cancer Survivors

Advances in early detection and treatment have led to a growing population of female cancer survivors, many of whom are of working age. We examined the relationship between cancer and long-term (>5 years) employment outcomes in a nationally representative sample of working-age women in the United States. Data from nine waves of the Health and Retirement Study were used to examine employment status and weekly hours worked among cancer survivors (n = 483) and women without cancer (n = 6605). We used random slope regression models to estimate the impact of cancer and occupation type on employment outcomes. There was no difference in employment status between cancer survivors and women without cancer at baseline; however, during follow-up, cancer survivors were more likely to be employed than women without cancer (odds ratio (OR) = 1.33, 95% confidence interval (CI): 1.11–1.58). Among 6–10-year survivors, professional workers were less likely (OR = 0.40, 95% CI: 0.21–0.74) to be employed than manual workers. Among >10-year survivors, professional workers averaged fewer weekly hours worked (−2.4 h, 95% CI: −4.4–−0.47) than manual workers. The impact of cancer on long-term employment outcomes may differ by occupation type. Identifying the occupation-specific mechanisms associated with the return to work will be critical to developing targeted strategies to promote employment in the growing female cancer survivor population.

scholarly journals The labor potential reproduction in depopulation period of 2019–2035 and the compensating role of migration

2019 ◽  
Vol 16 (5) ◽  
pp. 70-84
Author(s):  
A. V. Topilin ◽  
O. D. Vorob’eva ◽  
A. S. Maksimova
Keyword(s):  
Young People ◽  
Labor Force ◽  
Forecast Period ◽  
Age Cohorts ◽  
Time Migration ◽  
Working Age ◽  
Working Age Population ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Labor Potential

Purpose of the research. To examine the dynamics of reproduction of labor potential and labor supply in Russia for the period up to 2035, depending on the impact factors of its reproduction: generation change (changes in the proportion of cohort, entering and leaving at the age composition of the labor potential), fertility and mortality rates, migration balance in the individual age cohorts.  Materials and methods. The concept of “replacement of generations” is introduced. The coefficient of replacement of generations is developed and its value for labor potential of Russia for the period up to 2035 is calculated. The influence of factors of natural population movement on the dynamics of labor potential is analyzed. The compensating role of the migration factor in the conditions of labor potential reduction is calculated. Russian regions were grouped according to the following criteria: the direction and intensity of changes in the working-age population in 2020–2035 and the proportion of young people aged 0–15 years.  Results.  – There will be the reduction and aging of labor potential during the second stage of depopulation due to demographic factors.  – The decline in the working-age population in the second wave of depopulation is expected to be smaller than in the first wave.  – In Russia there will be a decrease in the replacement of generations in the contingent of people of the working age.  – The growth of Total Fertility Rate (TFR) in the forecast period should not be expected, because until 2030 a gradual decrease in the number of women of reproductive age is expected.  – The deepest failure in the population of the working age will be in 2020–2025 accounting for 1.7 million people according to the average variant of the forecast.  – In the forecast period, the labor force in the most productive age of 25–39 years will decrease by 10.5 million people, and the employment rate will decrease from 65.5% to 63.5%.  – Regional features of the formation of demand and supply of labor force in Russia cause the allocation of six homogeneous groups of regions.  – In order to compensate for the losses, it is necessary to increase the migration gain in the average version of ROSSTAT forecast by 2–2.5 times.  Conclusion. To meet the needs of the economy in the labor force in the forecast period, it is necessary to solve two interrelated tasks: compensation for the reduction of labor potential and ensuring the quality of labor potential necessary for the introduction of new technologies and digitalization of the economy. The unfavorable situation with the formation of labor resources is exacerbated by regional imbalances in the distribution of labor potential and differences in its quality across the country. In the future, migration is once again the only source of replenishment of labor potential and replacement of generations, despite the risks of quality losses due to the emigration of highly qualified persons and young people. It is necessary to take measures to increase the compensatory role of migration in the next five – six years. At the same time, migration policy measures should be considered in close conjunction with other measures to stimulate fertility and reduce mortality, ensuring a positive impact on the components of the population growth.  

MARKETING FACTORS THAT DETERMINE THE CONSUMER BEHAVIOR OF GENERATION Z

2021 ◽  
Vol 1 (181) ◽  
pp. 65-74
Author(s):  
N.F Soldatova ◽  
◽  
I.V Kutnyuk ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Social Networks ◽  
Consumer Behavior ◽  
Industry 4.0 ◽  
Strategic Marketing ◽  
Generation Z ◽  
Digital Ecosystem ◽  
Product Service ◽  
Working Age ◽  
Working Age Population

The concept of «Industry 4.0», which is actively developing in Russian companies, involves the end-to-end digitalization of assets and their integration into the digital ecosystem, developing the chain of creating the actual value of a product (service). As digital ecosystems develop, marketing, including strategic marketing, is also being modernized. SMM is being transformed from «page management in social networks» to one of the main marketing tools of our time. The choice of social platforms for the company’s presence is an important moment in the formation of the SMM-strategy. Companies implementing SMM should create optimal marketing content that will strengthen relationships with consumers and ensure not only long-term and favorable communications, but also create sustainable results in the activities of companies. Today, more than 25% of the working-age population of Russia is accounted for by generation Z, which has replaced millennials, which has its own characteristics and specifics of consumer behavior. For a deeper understanding of Generation Z consumers, the authors conducted a study of the factors that influence the model of consumer behavior in the B2C market.

DEMOGRAPHIC AND SOCIAL PROCESSES IN THE MURMANSK REGION IN THE CONTEXT OF PENSION REFORM IMPLEMENTATION

2021 ◽  
Vol 1 (64) ◽  
pp. 37-43
Author(s):  
Tatiana P. Skufina ◽  
◽  
Sergey V. Baranov ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Russian Federation ◽  
Pension Reform ◽  
Social Processes ◽  
Retirement Age ◽  
Murmansk Oblast ◽  
Pension Policy ◽  
Reform Implementation ◽  
Murmansk Region ◽  
Working Age ◽  
The Russian Federation

The article deals with demographic and social processes in the Murmansk Oblast in the context of the implementation of pension reform in the Russian Federation. Theoretical and methodological ideas concerning the pension policy in the world and in the Russian Federation are summed up; the influence of retirement age increase on the number of working-age population in Russia and in the Murmansk region is estimated; sentiments of population of the Murmansk region in the context of the pension reform are revealed.

The Long-Term Financial Sustainability of the Civil Service Pension Scheme in Malaysia

2019 ◽  
Vol 18 (1) ◽  
pp. 155-178
Author(s):  
Sheila Rose Darmaraj ◽  
Suresh Narayanan
Keyword(s):  
Civil Service ◽  
Pension Scheme ◽  
Retirement Age ◽  
Financial Sustainability ◽  
Defined Benefit ◽  
Contribution Rate ◽  
Replacement Rate ◽  
Deficit Model ◽  
Pension Payments

The civil service pension scheme (CSPS) in Malaysia is a defined benefit (DB), non-contributory system directly funded from the budget. An aging population, rising life expectancy, and ballooning pension payments underscore the need for reform. An annual pension deficit model was used to estimate the pension deficit over a period of 75 years under eight scenarios that compare the current scheme with changes in the pension deficit when three policy variables—retirement age, contribution rate, and replacement rate—are manipulated. We found the current scheme will not be financially sustainable. By increasing the retirement age, introducing employee contributions, and reducing the replacement rate, it is possible to delay the emergence of deficits and lengthen the period of sustainability of the scheme. However, a radical makeover is necessary to be fully sustainable and this might not be politically feasible.

An Assessment of the Impact That Chemotherapy Treatment Has on Employment Status in Individuals with Lymphoma.

Blood ◽  
2006 ◽  
Vol 108 (11) ◽  
pp. 5492-5492
Author(s):  
Jeff Horn ◽  
Ann T. Shaw
Keyword(s):  
Side Effects ◽  
Hodgkin’S Lymphoma ◽  
Significant Proportion ◽  
Hodgkin's Lymphoma ◽  
Small Scale ◽  
Main Theme ◽  
Chemotherapy Treatment ◽  
Working Age ◽  
The Impact

Abstract A significant proportion of individuals undergoing treatment for lymphoma are of working age and are in employment prior to diagnosis and during subsequent chemotherapy treatment. This small-scale study seeks to explore the impact that chemotherapy treatments have on employment. Specifically, the reasons for the decision to continue to work or not, and any perceived benefits or disadvantages encountered as a result are explored. Methods: All individuals presenting with newly diagnosed lymphoma, over a 12 month period, were identified retrospectively. Individuals of official working age, and who were receiving out-patient chemotherapy (i.e. who had the ability to be working at the time) were invited to participate. Participants were asked to complete a questionnaire that was designed to explore their experiences of employment during this time. Results: A total of 33 patients were invited to participate. A return rate of 70% was achieved. Of those who responded, 5 (22%) had already retired prior to diagnosis. A total of 12 patients (52%) continued to work during their chemotherapy treatment. Of these, 6 (50%) continued to work the same hours in the same conditions, whereas 6 (50%) worked an altered or flexible pattern. 6 patients (26%) stopped working for the duration of treatment, one of whom has not returned since. There were no obvious differences in patients with Hodgkin’s Lymphoma as opposed to Non-Hodgkin’s Lymphoma. The response rate was much higher in those who had received intravenous chemotherapy than oral preparations, preventing analysis of any potential variation in experiences. The qualitative data obtained gives a clearer insight into the many issues faced by the patient when undergoing chemotherapy treatment. Familiar themes were identified in many cases, and these were grouped into 5 main theme categories: Diversion from the reality of diagnosis and treatment Psychological Issues Issues of retained normality Practical Issues Physical or medical issues. Difficulty in coping with the side-effects of treatment, particularly fatigue, were commonly cited. Emotional effects such as stress and anxiety were also alluded to. Despite this, those who continued to work reported benefit from retaining a normal lifestyle, gained support from co-workers and experienced a diversion of focus from treatment. Several of those who continued to work cited financial reasons for this decision. Feedback suggested that advice given by the health-care team was often lacking or inconsistent. This did not reflect our perception of current practice, so it may suggest that it is the way that information is given that is ineffective. Conclusion: The majority of patients continued to work during their treatment and there appear to be many benefits to this. Difficulties encountered related mainly to treatment side-effects, logistical and practical problems associated with undergoing chemotherapy. It is envisaged that a greater understanding of the impact that lymphoma and its treatment has on employment may improve the level of support that can be offered by the multi-disciplinary team. The curative nature of many Lymphomas demands that long-term complications of the disease and treatment are fully addressed at the time of diagnosis. Social, economic and employment welfare are integral aspects to be considered, especially in a group of individuals who are likely to be long-term survivors.

Labor Market in the Light of Pension Reform

2019 ◽  
Vol 8 (2) ◽  
pp. 75-78
Author(s):  
Л. Аникеева ◽  
L. Anikeeva ◽  
Александра Митрофанова ◽  
Aleksandra Mitrofanova
Keyword(s):  
Labor Market ◽  
Old Age ◽  
Pension Reform ◽  
The State ◽  
Retirement Age ◽  
Unemployment Benefits ◽  
Negative Effects ◽  
The Impact ◽  
To Receive

The article deals with issues related to the change in the situation on the labor market in connection with the new pension reform. The mechanism of the impact of the conditions and standards of pensions on the state of the labor market is revealed. Special attention is paid to increasing tension in the labor market due to the increase in the retirement age. The procedure for raising the retirement age is revealed, categories of workers are identified that will not be affected by raising the retirement age or who are entitled to receive an old-age insurance pension of a higher retirement age. Consideration is given to aspects related to changes in the conditions and procedure for granting unemployment benefits, including new conditions for granting benefits to persons in pre-retirement age. Particular attention is paid to the disclosure of the factors that determine the possibility of raising the retirement age, and the justification of measures that contribute to leveling the negative effects of the increase.

scholarly journals The Impact of Ageing Population on Economic Growth in South Asia

2019 ◽  
Vol 15 (7) ◽  
pp. 70
Author(s):  
D.K.Y. Abeywardhana
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
South Asia ◽  
South Asian ◽  
Ageing Population ◽  
The South ◽  
Healthcare Facilities ◽  
Main Challenge ◽  
Working Age ◽  
Working Age Population ◽  
The Impact

The share of working age population has declined all over the world. It is forecasted that this will continue for the coming years in all countries in South Asia. Low growth in working age population in South Asia will be effecting negatively for the economic growth. This paper studies whether the South Asia 2050 employment targets would be sufficient to compensate for the downward impact of demographic burden and whether the impact of demography on economic growth differs between South Asian countries. The results show that degreasing working age population is the main challenge the South Asian region faces. Further it shows that growth in GDP mainly depend on the demographic change. Population who contributed the economic development become maturing and dependents of their children. The consumption of the ageing population is very high as of higher spending on healthcare facilities. This effect badly on the economic growth in the region and cause lots of challenges to the nations.

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