The Gender Gap Is a Race Gap: Women Voters in US Presidential Elections

2019 ◽  
Vol 18 (4) ◽  
pp. 1135-1145 ◽  
Author(s):  
Jane Junn ◽  
Natalie Masuoka
Keyword(s):  
Gender Gap ◽  
Republican Party ◽  
Democratic Party ◽  
Presidential Elections ◽  
White Women ◽  
Party Identification ◽  
The United States ◽  
Election Study ◽  
National Election Study ◽  
American National Election Study

Scholarship on women voters in the United States has focused on the gender gap, showing that, since the 1980s, women are more likely to vote for Democratic Party candidates than men. The persistence of the gender gap has nurtured the conclusion that women are Democrats. This article presents evidence upending that conventional wisdom. It analyzes data from the American National Election Study to demonstrate that white women are the only group of female voters who support Republican Party candidates for president. They have done so by a majority in all but 2 of the last 18 elections. The relevance of race for partisan choice among women voters is estimated with data collected in 2008, 2012, and 2016, and the significance of being white is identified after accounting for political party identification and other predictors.

IdentityversusIdentity: Israel and Evangelicals and the Two-Front War for Jewish Votes

2009 ◽  
Vol 2 (3) ◽  
pp. 395-419 ◽  
Author(s):  
Eric M. Uslaner ◽  
Mark Lichbach
Keyword(s):  
Republican Party ◽  
Voting Behavior ◽  
Democratic Party ◽  
Social Issues ◽  
Strong Support ◽  
Election Study ◽  
American Jews ◽  
Democratic Attitudes ◽  
National Election Study ◽  
American National Election Study

AbstractRepublicans made major efforts to win a larger share of the Jewish vote in 2004 by emphasizing their strong support for Israel. They partially succeeded, but did not make a dent in the overall loyalty of American Jews to the Democratic party, since they lost approximately as many votes because of Jews' negative reactions to the party's evangelical base. We argue that both Israel and worries over evangelical influence in the country reflect concerns about Jewish identity, above and beyond disagreements on specific social issues. We compare American Jewish voting behavior and liberalism to the voting behavior of non-Jews in 2004 using a survey of Jews from the National Jewish Democratic Coalition and the American National Election Study. For non-Jews, attitudes toward evangelicals are closely linked to social issues, but for Jews this correlation is small. The Jewish reaction to evangelicals is more of an issue of identity and the close ties of evangelicals to the Republican Party keep many Jews Democratic. Attitudes toward evangelicals are far more important for Jewish voting behavior than for non-Jewish voters.

scholarly journals That Woman from Michigan: How Gender Resentment Shapes the Efficacy of Stay-at-Home Policies

2020 ◽  
Vol 16 (4) ◽  
pp. 983-990
Author(s):  
Nicole Kalaf-Hughes ◽  
Debra Leiter
Keyword(s):  
Government Policy ◽  
The United States ◽  
Election Study ◽  
Female Leaders ◽  
Political Leaders ◽  
Social Distancing ◽  
National Election Study ◽  
American National Election Study ◽  
Using Data ◽  
At Home

AbstractThe United States has the highest number of COVID-19 cases, yet many Americans have responded indifferently toward policies designed to combat the spread of the virus. While nearly all 50 states have implemented some type of stay-at-home policy to encourage social distancing, there has been high variation in the degree of compliance. We argue that this variance is partly driven by gender resentment. Gender resentment reduces trust in female political leaders and thus decreases compliance with government policy and recommendations. Using data from SafeGraph and the 2016 American National Election Study, we demonstrate that the effect of stay-at-home policies on social distancing is reduced when gender resentment increases in states with female leaders. However, when gender resentment is low, there is no difference in the effect of policies on behavior. This research has important implications for understanding unseen barriers that can mediate the efficacy of female political leaders.

Immigrant Resentment and Voter Fraud Beliefs in the U.S. Electorate

2017 ◽  
Vol 46 (3) ◽  
pp. 402-433 ◽  
Author(s):  
Adriano Udani ◽  
David C. Kimball
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
Strong Predictor ◽  
The United States ◽  
Congressional Election ◽  
Election Study ◽  
Public Beliefs ◽  
National Election Study ◽  
American National Election Study ◽  
Immigration Politics ◽  
Voter Fraud

Public beliefs about the frequency of voter fraud are frequently cited to support restrictive voting laws in the United States. However, some sources of public beliefs about voter fraud have received little attention. We identify two conditions that combine to make anti-immigrant attitudes a strong predictor of voter fraud beliefs. First, the recent growth and dispersion of the immigrant population makes immigration a salient consideration for many Americans. Second, an immigrant threat narrative in political discourse linking immigration to crime and political dysfunction has been extended to the voting domain. Using new data from a survey module in the 2014 Cooperative Congressional Election Study and the 2012 American National Election Study, we show that immigrant resentment is strongly associated with voter fraud beliefs. Widespread hostility toward immigrants helps nourish public beliefs about voter fraud and support for voting restrictions in the United States. The conditions generating this relationship in public opinion likely exist in other nations roiled by immigration politics. The topic of fraudulent electoral practices will likely continue to provoke voters to call to mind groups that are politically constructed as “un-American.”

Decaying Versus Developing Party Systems: A Comparison of Party Images in the United States and West Germany

1992 ◽  
Vol 22 (2) ◽  
pp. 131-149 ◽  
Author(s):  
Hans-Dieter Klingemann ◽  
Martin P. Wattenberg
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
Party System ◽  
System Development ◽  
Party Identification ◽  
Party Systems ◽  
The United States ◽  
West Germany ◽  
Election Study ◽  
National Election Study ◽  
Citizens Attitudes

This article examines citizens' attitudes towards the two major parties in the United States since 1952 and in West Germany since 1969 employing open-ended data from each country's National Election Study time series. Despite similar declining trends in party identification in the two countries, it is found that the patterns of change in party images are markedly different. In the United States it is shown that voters have become increasingly neutral towards the two parties as the focus has turned more and more towards the candidates. In contrast, in West Germany voters have come to have a more balanced view of the parties, seeing both positive and negative features of both. Thus in both cases there has been a decline in polarized strong partisanship (‘my party right or wrong’), but for different reasons. In the United States this decline can be seen as a sign of the decay of an ageing and outdated party system; in West Germany it can be seen as the development of realistic and balanced views of a party system which is just reaching full maturity. The implications for analysing party system development in Eastern Europe are discussed.

A Propensity Score Reweighting Approach to Estimating the Partisan Effects of Full Turnout in American Presidential Elections

2004 ◽  
Vol 12 (1) ◽  
pp. 28-45 ◽  
Author(s):  
Thomas L. Brunell ◽  
John DiNardo
Keyword(s):  
Democratic Party ◽  
Presidential Elections ◽  
Election Study ◽  
Percentage Point Increase ◽  
Compulsory Voting ◽  
National Election Study ◽  
Point Increase ◽  
Using Data ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Eventual Outcome

Borrowing an approach from the literature on the economics of discrimination, we estimate the impact of nonvoters on the outcome of presidential elections from 1952–2000 using data from the National Election Study (NES). Our estimates indicate that nonvoters are, on average, slightly more likely to support the Democratic Party. Of the 13 presidential elections between 1952 and 2000 we find no change in the eventual outcome of the election with two possible exceptions: 1980 and 2000. Thus our results are not all that dissimilar from other research on participation. Higher turnout in the form of compulsory voting would not radically change the partisan distribution of the vote. When elections are sufficiently close, however, a two percentage point increase may suffice to affect the outcome. Limitations of the NES data we use suggest that our estimates underestimate the impact of nonparticipation. We also compare our method with other econometric techniques. Finally, using our findings we speculate as to why the Democratic Party fails to undertake widespread “get out the vote” or registration drives.

Electoral Choice and Religion: United States

2018 ◽  
Author(s):  
Jeremiah J. Castle
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
Republican Party ◽  
Democratic Party ◽  
Party Identification ◽  
The United States ◽  
Vote Choice ◽  
Religious Traditions ◽  
Electoral Choice ◽  
American Elections ◽  
The Right

Scholars have identified a variety of mechanisms through which religion could impact vote choice in the United States. Researchers have long recognized that, like other social identities, religion is an important factor in the development of party identification. In the United States, evangelical Protestants and highly committed members of other religious traditions tend to favor the Republican Party, while seculars and low-commitment members of other religious traditions tend to favor the Democratic Party. Religion also impacts views on a variety of issues, including abortion, social welfare policy, and foreign affairs. Under the right circumstances, religious voters may incorporate these policy positions into their vote choice. Finally, a growing body of research recognizes that voters use a candidate’s religious views as a heuristic to infer partisanship, ideology, competence, trustworthiness, and a variety of other traits. Given these numerous paths of influence, it is no surprise that researchers regularly find that religion is an important factor in electoral choice. Researchers have also identified a variety of ways in which religion can impact turnout, thereby creating a second means for religion to influence American elections. Religion helps in the development of social networks and civic skills, thus reducing the costs of political participation. Religion can also be a factor in the development of sociopsychological traits such as threat, thereby facilitating mobilization. By understanding the capacity of religion to impact both turnout and electoral choice, scholars can better understand the myriad ways in which religion influences elections in the United States.

scholarly journals Experimental Measurement of Misperception in Political Beliefs

2021 ◽  
pp. 1-14
Author(s):  
Taylor N. Carlson ◽  
Seth J. Hill
Keyword(s):  
Party Identification ◽  
Second Order ◽  
Vote Choice ◽  
The Political ◽  
Election Study ◽  
Political Beliefs ◽  
Political Views ◽  
National Election Study ◽  
American National Election Study ◽  
Before And After

Abstract Recent research suggests widespread misperception about the political views of others. Measuring perceptions often relies on instruments that do not separate uncertainty from inaccuracy. We present new experimental measures of second-order political beliefs. To carefully measure political (mis)perceptions, we have subjects report beliefs as probabilities. To encourage accuracy, we provide micro-incentives for each response. To measure learning, we provide information sequentially about the perception of interest. We illustrate our method by applying it to perceptions of vote choice in the 2016 presidential election. Subjects made inferences about randomly selected American National Election Study (ANES) respondents. Before and after receiving information about the other, subjects reported a probabilistic belief about the other’s vote. We find that perceptions are less biased than in previous work on second-order beliefs. Accuracy increased most with the delivery of party identification and report of a most important problem. We also find evidence of modest egocentric and different-trait bias.

Who Favors Legalizing Physician-Assisted Suicide? The Vote on Michigan's Proposal B

2001 ◽  
Vol 20 (2) ◽  
pp. 155-163 ◽  
Author(s):  
John Strate ◽  
Timothy Kiska ◽  
Marvin Zalman
Keyword(s):  
Republican Party ◽  
Democratic Party ◽  
Assisted Suicide ◽  
Church Attendance ◽  
Personal Autonomy ◽  
Party Identification ◽  
Physician Assisted Suicide ◽  
Sanctity Of Life ◽  
Initiative Process ◽  
Social Liberalism

At the November 1998 general election, Michigan citizens were given the opportunity to vote on Proposal B, an initiative that would have legalized physician-assisted suicide (PAS). PAS initiatives also have been held in Washington State, California, Oregon, and Maine, with only Oregon's passing. We use exit poll data to analyze the vote on Proposal B. Attributes associated with social liberalism—Democratic Party identification, less frequent church attendance, more education, and greater household income—led to increased odds of a “yes” vote. Attributes associated with social conservatism—Republican Party identification and frequent church attendance—led to decreased odds of a “yes” vote. Similar to the abortion issue, PAS's supporters strongly value personal autonomy, whereas its opponents strongly value the sanctity of life. Voter alignments like those in Michigan will likely appear in other states with the initiative process if PAS reaches their ballots.

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