scholarly journals Bayesian over-dispersed Poisson model and the Bornhuetter & Ferguson claims reserving method

2012 ◽  
Vol 6 (2) ◽  
pp. 258-283 ◽  
Author(s):  
Peter D. England ◽  
Richard J. Verrall ◽  
Mario V. Wüthrich

AbstractWe consider the Bayesian over-dispersed Poisson (ODP) model for claims reserving in general insurance. We choose two different types of prior distributions for the parameters and then study the different Bayesian predictors. This study leads, on the one hand, to the classical chain ladder predictor and, on the other hand, to Bornhuetter & Ferguson predictors. We highlight (either analytically or numerically) how these predictors are obtained and how their prediction uncertainty can be determined.

2020 ◽  
Vol 9 (2) ◽  
pp. 317-327
Author(s):  
Paweł Pruski

In modern science, the theory of probability is one of the basic tools. Scientists using probability often refer to its objective interpretation. They emphasize that their probabilistic hypotheses concern objective facts, not degrees of belief. Accordingly, the following questions arise: What is the meaning of this type of probabilistic hypothesis? Is the assumption of objectivity necessary? The paper addresses these questions by analyzing objective probability in the context of the scientific debate on determinism. Two types of arguments will be presented. On the one hand, there is the assertion that objective probability can exist only in an indeterministic world. Then, on the other hand — I analyze the assertions of those who believe in the co‑existence of objective probability and determinism. As a result I show that the acceptance of deterministic and indeterministic fields as possible areas where objective probability can occur is extremely problematic. Depending on the chosen area we encounter different types of problems. Therefore, I show that a significant number of these problems are associated with the acceptance of incorrect metaphysical assumptions. And finally, I postulate that the objectivity of probability (and assumptions pertaining to it) can be reduced (without any losses) to the epistemic variant.


Sincronía ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol XXV (80) ◽  
pp. 160-175
Author(s):  
Celeste Florencia Ramirez ◽  

In the present work, in the light of the reading of the philosopher Santiago Castro-Gómez, we will try to elucidate his theory about the coloniality of power and the way in which such a device codified the bodies according to the discourse of blood cleansing. So, first, we will briefly develop two different types of theories about power: on the one hand, the theory of the coloniality of power, presented by the Peruvian sociologist Aníbal Quijano; on the other hand, the analytics of power, developed by Michel Foucault. Both theories, which seem incommensurable, are put into dialogue by our philosopher. In the second part of our work, we will prepare to present the practices and modus operandi corresponding to the coloniality of power to manifest its uniqueness in comparison to other types of powers. Likewise, we will show how a certain sector of the population, in an attempt to consolidate their family and personal interests, used these practices to limit corporality. Third, and by way of conclusion, we will make a brief sketch about the link between the coloniality of power and the political practices of current Colombia.


Author(s):  
Andrej L. Malchukov

The present chapter discusses patterns of differential case marking in ergative languages, focusing on differential subject marking, which is more prominent in ergative languages (in contrast to accusative languages, where differential object marking is more prominent). It is argued that patterns of (differential) case marking can be accounted two general constraints related to (role)-indexing, on the one hand, and distinguishability (or markedness) on the other hand. This approach correctly predicts asymmetries between differential object marking (DOM) and differential subject marking (DSM) with regard to animacy, definiteness, as well as discourse features. I also show how this approach can be extended to capture a relation between case and voice alternation, as well as briefly outline diachronic scenarios leading to different types of differential case marking in ergative and split intransitive languages.


2014 ◽  
Vol 62 (6) ◽  
Author(s):  
Héctor Wittwer

AbstractThe fact that the topic of emergency situations has been neglected almost completely by ethical theory raises the question why normative ethics has had so little to say about extreme situations so far. One can assume that this disinterest is not due to the rarity of emergency situations but rather to their peculiar properties. All ethical theories rest on the premise that moral agents make the most of their decisions under normal circumstances. The aim of the paper is to answer the question whether or not normative ethics is able to adequately evaluate emergency situations. In order to do this, different types of extreme situations must be distinguished. It is argued that, on the one hand, self-defence and agreements by which all the participants refrain from certain of their rights in order to enable some of them to survive are morally unproblematic. On the other hand, there are emergency situations that do not allow for a solution which would be morally acceptable to all of the involved persons. Hence, morality itself can be unacceptable under extreme circumstances.


2009 ◽  
Vol 48 (05) ◽  
pp. 459-467 ◽  
Author(s):  
R. Linder ◽  
J. Ingenerf

Summary Objectives: Recently, ontological principles have been applied to numerous biomedical vocabularies, with the intention to identify mistakes and poor modeling decisions. No doubt, such applications are useful and necessary for terminological systems like SNOMED CT based on an axiomatic logical formalism. Methods: In the following review, ontology is dealt with by focussing on particularly two aspects: the problem of ISA-overloading and the intrusion of epistemology-loaded terms in biomedical vocabularies. Both aspects are considered with respect to three types of biomedical vocabularies. Results: Opposed to concept-oriented terminological systems, the purpose-specific organization of descriptors in thesauri and classes in statistical classifications on an extra aggregation level make it impossible to apply ontological principles. On the contrary, their intended purpose presupposes specific mechanisms that are in conflict with those principles. Conclusions: Interestingly, for thesauri and classifications there are rather similar initiatives linking the extra level of descriptors and classes on the one hand and an intermediate concept level on the other hand. Such an approach proved beneficial for maintaining and translating thesauri and classifications.


Author(s):  
Steven Lee

National sovereignty presents a puzzle. On the one hand, this notion continues to figure importantly in our descriptions of global political change. On the other hand, factors such as the accelerating pace of international economic integration seem to have made the notion anachronistic. This paper is an attempt to resolve this puzzle. Distinguishing between internal sovereignty or supremacy and external sovereignty or independence, I investigate whether some insights from the discussion of the former can be applied to our puzzle concerning the latter. One response to the objection that the notion of internal sovereignty is inapplicable because no group in society holds unlimited political power is to distinguish between different types of internal sovereignty, such as legal and electoral sovereignty. The resolution of the puzzle lies in applying this response strategy to the objection that the notion of external sovereignty is inapplicable because no state is completely independent.


2007 ◽  
Vol 7 (1) ◽  
pp. 83-99 ◽  
Author(s):  
Kristel Van Goethem

French sur and Dutch op (“on, upon”) can be a considered matching pair when they are used as prepositions: e.g. le livre sur la table/het boek op de tafel (“the book on the table”). However, used as prefixes, or in particular as preverbs, the similarities between sur- and op- seem to be much weaker. Instead, sur- corresponds more often to over-: e.g. surestimer quelque chose/iets overschatten (“to overestimate something”). From the analysis of a bilingual dictionary, we will investigate this phenomenon. At a morpho-syntactic level, on the one hand, we will show that French and Dutch preverbs appear in different types of constructions. At the semantic level, on the other hand, we will demonstrate that prepositions in preverbal use can develop new, often aspectual, meanings, but that this re-semanticization process does not necessarily follow the same paths in French and Dutch.


Author(s):  
Christopher Pincock

Explanatory pluralism is the view that explanations come in two or more different types. This chapter clarifies two versions of explanatory pluralism and considers two very different attempts to make sense of it. On the one hand, an ontic approach isolates genuine explanations only by appeal to facts that obtain in the world. The most promising way for an ontic approach to accommodate explanatory pluralism is to posit different sorts of objective dependence relations. On the other hand, an epistemic approach requires that features of agents appear in any analysis of what a genuine explanation is. This chapter argues that there is a version of an ontic account and a version of an epistemic account that do make sense of explanatory pluralism in their own terms. At the same time, pluralism raises problems for each approach that require further consideration.


2020 ◽  
Vol 71 (1) ◽  
pp. 271-304
Author(s):  
Pedro Gras ◽  
María Sol Sansiñena

AbstractThis paper presents a corpus-based interactional analysis of non-embedded indicative que-clauses (IQCs) in three regional varieties of Spanish (Madrid, Spain; Santiago de Chile, Chile; and Buenos Aires, Argentina), using data from the corpus COLA (Corpus Oral del Lenguaje Adolescente). On the one hand, we show that IQCs exhibit regional variation regarding the discourse contexts in which they appear: not all contexts are equally available for each regional variety. Moreover, we argue that this variation can be placed on a cline that ranges from high discourse dependency to low discourse dependency, which might, in turn, suggest a divergent evolution of IQCs in the dialectal spectrum of Spanish. On the other hand, our analysis complements previous typologies of IQCs in two respects: (i) it describes the discourse contexts in which different types of IQCs are used, and (ii) it shows specific contexts and interpretations that had not been explicitly acknowledged in existing generative studies.


2019 ◽  
pp. 1-3
Author(s):  
I. Mostoviak ◽  
O. Kravchenko

Goal. Fungicide application fungicides, applied separately and at the background of using inoculum Rhizoactive, on the formation of yielding capacity and some structural parameters of soy crops. According to the set goal, the task was to select the most effective fungicides to fight diseases in the crops, when they are applied separately and at the background of seed inoculation with Rhizoactive. Methods. Field and laboratory. Results. It has been established that the formation of the yielding capacity of soya and indexes of crops structure depends on the fungicides type and their application against the background of using inoculant and without it. It has been proved that the highest productivity of soya crops formed in the variants of the experiment with the application of Impact K, 0.8 l/ ha and Coronet 300 SC КС, 0.8 l/ha against the background of treatment of soya seeds with Rhizoactive. Conclusions. Application of fungicides Akanto Plus 28 KC, 1.0 l/ha, Amistar Extra 280 SC, KC, 0.75 l/ha, Bamper Super 490, KE, 1.5 l/ ha, Impact K, 0.8 l/ha, Koronet 300 SC, KC, 0.5 l/ha in the crops of soy at the background of pre-sowing seed treatment with  inoculum leads to the increase of yielding capacity of crops by 11—15% and improved structure of crops, which is, on the one hand, provided by the improving phytosanitary state of soy crops under the action of fungicides, and on the other hand, by the nutrition of plants at the background of activation of legume inoculum.


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