scholarly journals Aerosol analysis and forecast in the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts Integrated Forecast System: Forward modeling

2009 ◽  
Vol 114 (D6) ◽  
Author(s):  
J.-J. Morcrette ◽  
O. Boucher ◽  
L. Jones ◽  
D. Salmond ◽  
P. Bechtold ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Forward Modeling ◽  
Forecast System ◽  
Weather Forecasts ◽  
European Centre ◽  
Aerosol Analysis ◽  
Medium Range

scholarly journals Estudo do ciclo de vida do ciclone subtropical Arani ocorrido no Atlântico Sul em março de 2011 através das reanálises ERA-Interim e CFSR

2020 ◽  
Vol 15 (3) ◽  
pp. 235-249
Author(s):  
Ana Cristina Pinto de Almeida Palmeira ◽  
Rodrigo De Souza Barreto Mathias
Keyword(s):  
Climate Forecast ◽  
Forecast System ◽  
Climate Forecast System ◽  
Weather Forecasts ◽  
European Centre ◽  
Medium Range

O ciclone Arani ocorreu em março de 2011 no oceano Atlântico Sul e foi classificado inicialmente como depressão subtropical. Ao atingir ventos superiores a 34 nós, passou à categoria de tempestade subtropical, sendo nomeado pela Marinha do Brasil como Arani, que significa tempo furioso em Tupi Guarani. O objetivo deste trabalho foi analisar o ciclone Arani através do Espaço de Fase de Ciclones, construído com dados da reanálise ERA-Interim do European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF), com 0,7º de resolução espacial, e, também, utilizando campos sinóticos e cortes verticais com os dados da reanálise do Climate Forecast System Reanalisys (CFSR), com 0,5º de resolução. Através dos diagramas de fase foi possível identificar a estrutura subtropical do ciclone Arani e o indício de uma transição de fase extratropical no final de seu ciclo de vida. Os resultados indicaram, também, que a qualidade dos diagramas de fase para ciclones com fraco núcleo quente e pequenas dimensões depende de modelos atmosféricos adequados e, por isso, os valores obtidos devem ser analisados com cautela quando se trata do uso de modelos globais. Neste caso, o estudo qualitativo dos diagramas se mostrou mais útil do que a análise puramente quantitativa. Apesar de discordar da informação de uma transição de fase extratropical no final do ciclo de vida do ciclone Arani, contida nos diagramas de fase empregados no estudo, a análise dos campos e dos perfis sinóticos contribuiu para o entendimento do desenvolvimento do ciclone e para a interpretação dos próprios diagramas de fase.

Hochaufgelöste Simulation von meteorologischen Feldern in urbanen Räumen mit dem Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) Modell

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Lukas N. Pilz ◽  
Sanam N. Vardag ◽  
Joachim Fallmann ◽  
André Butz
Keyword(s):  
Greenhouse Gas ◽  
Monitoring System ◽  
Weather Research And Forecasting ◽  
Gas Monitoring ◽  
Weather Forecasts ◽  
European Centre ◽  
Medium Range ◽  
Erste Ergebnisse ◽  
Weather Research

<p><span>Städte und Kommunen sind für mehr als 70% </span><span>der globalen, fossilen CO2-Emissionen</span><span> verantwortlich, sodass hier ein enormes Mitigationspotential besteht. Informationen über (inner-)städtische CO2-Emissionen stehen allerdings oft nicht </span><span>in hoher zeitlicher und räumlicher Auflösung</span><span> zur Verfügung und sind </span><span>meist</span><span> mit großen Unsicherheiten behaftet. Diese Umstände erschweren eine zielgerichtete und effiziente Mitigation im urbanen Raum. </span><span>Städtische Messnetzwerke können als unabhängige Informationsquelle einen Beitrag leisten, um CO2-Emissionen in Städten zu quantifizieren und Mitigation zu verifizieren</span><span>. </span><span>Verschiedene denkbare Beobachtungsstrategien sollten</span><span> im Vorfeld abgewägt werden, um urbane Emissionen bestmöglich, d.h. mit der erforderlichen Genauigkeit und </span><span>Kosteneffizienz</span><span> zu quantifizieren. So können Messnetzwerke die Basis für zielgerichtete und kosteneffiziente Mitigation legen.</span></p><p><span>Im Rahmen des Verbundvorhabens „Integrated Greenhouse Gas Monitoring System for Germany“ (ITMS) werden wir verschiedene Beobachtungsstrategien für urbane Räume entwerfen und mit Hilfe von Modellsimulation evaluieren und abwägen. Notwendige Voraussetzung für </span><span>die Evaluation der Strategien</span><span> ist eine akkurate Repräsentation des atmosphärischen Transports im Modell.</span></p><p><span>Diese Studie zeigt</span><span> erste Ergebnisse der hochauflösenden (1kmx1km) meteorologischen Simulationen für den Rhein-Neckar-Raum mit dem WRF Modell. </span><span>Die in WRF simulierten meteorologischen Größen werden für verschiedene Modellkonfigurationen mit </span><span>re-analysierten Daten des European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) und ausgewählten Messstationen verglichen. Damit evaluieren wir </span><span>den Einfluss unterschiedlicher Nudging-Strategien, Parametrisierungen physikalischer Prozesse und urbaner Interaktionen</span><span> auf </span><span>die Modellperformance</span> <span>von</span><span> Lufttemperatur, Windrichtung, Windgeschwindigkeit und Grenzschichthöhe. Durch diese Analysen gewährleisten wir, dass die Simulation der Beobachtungsstrategien auf robuste</span><span>m</span><span> und realistische</span><span>m</span><span> atmosphärischen Transport basieren und schlussendlich repräsentative Empfehlungen für den Aufbau von Messnetzwerken liefern können. </span></p>

Evaluierung des nichthydrostatischen mesoskaligen Modells GRAMM-SCI anhand der Richtlinie VDI 3783 Blatt 7/Evaluation of the nonhydrostatic mesoscale model GRAMM-SCI based on the guideline VDI 3783 Part 7

Gefahrstoffe ◽  
2020 ◽  
Vol 80 (07-08) ◽  
pp. 318-324
Author(s):  
D. Öttl
Keyword(s):  
Mesoscale Model ◽  
Weather Forecasts ◽  
European Centre ◽  
Medium Range

Aufgrund der komplexen Orografie in den Alpen sind einfache, auf diagnostischen Ansätzen beruhende Windfeldmodelle in Österreich kaum anwendbar. Daher wird in den meisten österreichischen Bundesländern das mesoskalige Modell GRAMM im Rahmen von Luftschadstoffuntersuchungen eingesetzt. In diesem Beitrag werden Ergebnisse der Modellevaluierung anhand jener drei Datensätze der Richtlinie VDI 3783 Blatt 7 präsentiert, die auf teils umfangreichen Messkampagnen basieren. Das Modell GRAMM wurde mittlerweile erweitert (Version GRAMM-SCI) und kann nun auch mit den Reanalysedaten ERA5 des Europäischen Wetterdienstes (European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts, ECMWF) angetrieben werden. Um die Qualität der ERA5-Daten zu prüfen, wurden zusätzliche Simulationen für die drei Evaluierungsdatensätze aus VDI 3783 Blatt 7 durchgeführt. Es zeigt sich, dass Modellsimulationen mit GRAMM-SCI, die auf ERA5-Daten basieren, die Strömungs- und Temperaturverhältnisse grundsätzlich gut wiedergeben. Allerdings sind die Abweichungen zu den Messungen der Sondermesskampagnen teilweise etwas zu groß, um die hohen Anforderungen von VDI 3783 Blatt 7 an die Modellergebnisse vollständig zu erfüllen.

Evaluation of Global Forecast System (GFS) Medium-Range Precipitation Forecasts in the Nile River Basin

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Haowen Yue ◽  
Mekonnen Gebremichael ◽  
Vahid Nourani
Keyword(s):  
Temporal Dynamics ◽  
Disease Outbreaks ◽  
Rain Gauge ◽  
Global Forecast System ◽  
Forecast System ◽  
Forecast Performance ◽  
Weather Forecasts ◽  
Rain Gauges ◽  
Basin Scale ◽  
Medium Range

Abstract Reliable weather forecasts are valuable in a number of applications, such as, agriculture, hydropower, and weather-related disease outbreaks. Global weather forecasts are widely used, but detailed evaluation over specific regions is paramount for users and operational centers to enhance the usability of forecasts and improve their accuracy. This study presents evaluation of the Global Forecast System (GFS) medium-range (1 day – 15 day) precipitation forecasts in the nine sub-basins of the Nile basin using NASA’s Integrated Multi-satellitE Retrievals (IMERG) “Final Run” satellite-gauge merged rainfall observations. The GFS products are available at a temporal resolution of 3-6 hours, spatial resolution of 0.25°, and its version-15 products are available since 12 June 2019. GFS forecasts are evaluated at a temporal scale of 1-15 days, spatial scale of 0.25° to all the way to the sub-basin scale, and for a period of one year (15 June 2019 – 15 June 2020). The results show that performance of the 1-day lead daily basin-averaged GFS forecast performance, as measured through the modified Kling-Gupta Efficiency (KGE), is poor (0 < KGE < 0.5) for most of the sub-basins. The factors contributing to the low performance are: (1) large overestimation bias in watersheds located in wet climate regimes in the northern hemispheres (Millennium watershed, Upper Atbara & Setit watershed, and Khashm El Gibra watershed), and (2) lower ability in capturing the temporal dynamics of watershed-averaged rainfall that have smaller watershed areas (Roseires at 14,110 sq. km and Sennar at 13,895 sq. km). GFS has better bias for watersheds located in the dry parts of the northern hemisphere or wet parts of the southern hemisphere, and better ability in capturing the temporal dynamics of watershed-average rainfall for large watershed areas. IMERG Early has better bias than GFS forecast for the Millennium watershed but still comparable and worse bias for the Upper Atbara & Setit, and Khashm El Gibra watersheds. The variation in the performance of the IMERG Early could be partly explained by the number of rain gauges used in the reference IMERG Final product, as 16 rain gauges were used for the Millennium watershed but only one rain gauge over each Upper Atbara & Setit, and Khashm El Gibra watershed. A simple climatological bias-correction of IMERG Early reduces in the bias in IMERG Early over most watersheds, but not all watersheds. We recommend exploring methods to increase the performance of GFS forecasts, including post-processing techniques through the use of both near-real-time and research-version satellite rainfall products.

scholarly journals CARACTERIZAÇÃO ATMOSFÉRICA QUANDO DA OCORRÊNCIA DE EVENTOS EXTREMOS DE CHUVA NA REGIÃO SUL DE MINAS GERAIS

2017 ◽  
Vol 21 ◽  
Author(s):  
Michelle Simões Reboita ◽  
Diogo Malagutti Gonçalves Marietto ◽  
Amanda Souza ◽  
Marina Barbosa
Keyword(s):  
Climate Prediction ◽  
Minas Gerais ◽  
Weather Forecasts ◽  
European Centre ◽  
Medium Range ◽  
Climate Prediction Center

O objetivo deste estudo é apresentar uma descrição das características da atmosfera que contribuíram para elevados totais de precipitação no sul de Minas Gerais e que foram precursores de dois episódios de inundação e alagamento na cidade de Itajubá: um em 16 de janeiro de 1991 e outro em 02 de janeiro de 2000. Para tanto, foram utilizados dados do Climate Prediction Center e da reanálise ERA-Interim do European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF). Entre os resultados, têm-se que os episódios de inundação e alagamento ocorridos na cidade de Itajubá, em ambos os anos, estiveram associados à atuação da Zona de Convergência do Atlântico Sul, que se estendia da Amazônia, passando pelo sudeste do Brasil, e chegava ao Atlântico Sul.

scholarly journals An “island” in the stratosphere – on the enhanced annual variation of water vapour in the middle and upper stratosphere in the southern tropics and subtropics

2017 ◽  
Vol 17 (18) ◽  
pp. 11521-11539 ◽  
Author(s):  
Stefan Lossow ◽  
Hella Garny ◽  
Patrick Jöckel
Keyword(s):  
Water Vapour ◽  
Atmospheric Chemistry ◽  
Annual Variation ◽  
Trace Gases ◽  
Michelson Interferometer ◽  
Full Account ◽  
Weather Forecasts ◽  
European Centre ◽  
Atmospheric Sounding ◽  
Medium Range

Abstract. The amplitude of the annual variation in water vapour exhibits a distinct isolated maximum in the middle and upper stratosphere in the southern tropics and subtropics, peaking typically around 15° S in latitude and close to 3 hPa (∼  40.5 km) in altitude. This enhanced annual variation is primarily related to the Brewer–Dobson circulation and hence also visible in other trace gases. So far this feature has not gained much attention in the literature and the present work aims to add more prominence. Using Envisat/MIPAS (Environmental Satellite/Michelson Interferometer for Passive Atmospheric Sounding) observations and ECHAM/MESSy (European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts Hamburg/Modular Earth Submodel System) Atmospheric Chemistry (EMAC) simulations we provide a dedicated illustration and a full account of the reasons for this enhanced annual variation.

scholarly journals Spatial-Temporal Pattern Changes of UTCI in the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor in Recent 40 Years

Atmosphere ◽  
2020 ◽  
Vol 11 (8) ◽  
pp. 858
Author(s):  
Di Zeng ◽  
Jinkui Wu ◽  
Yaqiong Mu ◽  
Mingshan Deng ◽  
Yanqiang Wei ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Thermal Environment ◽  
Linear Trend ◽  
Temporal Variations ◽  
Reanalysis Data ◽  
Climate Index ◽  
Positive Trend ◽  
Growth Trend ◽  
Weather Forecasts ◽  
European Centre ◽  
Medium Range

This paper investigated the spatial and temporal variations of the Universal Thermal Climate Index (UTCI) of the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC) from 1979 to 2018. The European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts Re-Analysis-Interim (ERA-Interim) reanalysis data from the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) is selected for UTCI calculation in the region and analyzed by a linear trend and correlation analysis. The results showed that (1) the UTCI of CPEC is decreased with the increase of latitude and altitude. There is obvious spatial heterogeneity in the seasonal scale and the spatial distribution of different thermal stress categories. (2) UTCI generally exhibited a positive trend of 0.33 °C/10a over the past 40 years, and the seasonal variation characteristics of UTCI show an upward trend in all four seasons, of which spring is the fastest. On the space scale, the growth trend has significant spatial variations. (3) Temperature has a positive correlation with UTCI. The influence of temperature on UTCI is greater than that of wind speed. The results of this study will be helpful for regional planning and also contribute to comprehending the characteristics of the thermal environment in CPEC.

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