Anchoring and adjustment in judgments under risk.

1990 ◽  
Vol 16 (4) ◽  
pp. 665-676 ◽  
Author(s):  
Bruce W. Carlson
Keyword(s):  
Anchoring And Adjustment

Flooding the Zone: How Exposure to Implausible Statements Shapes Subsequent Belief Judgments

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Ezgi Ulusoy ◽  
Dustin Carnahan ◽  
Daniel E Bergan ◽  
Rachel C Barry ◽  
Siyuan Ma ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Full Range ◽  
Order Effect ◽  
Initial Exposure ◽  
Anchoring And Adjustment ◽  
Downstream Effects ◽  
Survey Experiments ◽  
Audience Responses ◽  
Beliefs And Attitudes ◽  
Scholarly Attention

Abstract Much scholarly attention has been paid to the effects of misinformation on beliefs and attitudes, but rarely have studies investigated potential downstream effects of misinformation exposure on belief judgments involving subsequent factual statements. Drawing from work on anchoring-and-adjustment and defensive reasoning, this study examines how exposure to initial falsehoods that vary in terms of their plausibility shapes subsequent belief judgments. Across two survey experiments, we find that initial exposure to a less plausible statement decreases belief in subsequent statements, whether true or false. This order effect has implications for misinformation research, as studies examining audience responses to a single falsehood may fail to capture the full range of misinformation effects. Other implications are discussed in this article.

A Process Management Strategy for Re-Design: An Anchoring Adjustment Approach

1998 ◽  
Author(s):  
Lisa A. Dixon ◽  
Jonathan S. Colton
Keyword(s):  
Design Process ◽  
Management Strategy ◽  
Process Management ◽  
General Pattern ◽  
Evaluation Metrics ◽  
Anchoring And Adjustment ◽  
Adjustment Model ◽  
Design Activities ◽  
Design Process Model ◽  
Process Strategy

Abstract Preceding research on the re-design process focused on the development and verification of an Anchoring and Adjustment design process model. Compared to the existing, predominantly top-down, models, this new model was tailored specifically to describe designers’ approaches to re-design tasks. Building upon that work, this paper presents an evaluation of a re-design process strategy that is based on the key elements identified in the Anchoring and Adjustment model (a general pattern for re-design activities and two evaluation metrics). The overall goal was to formulate an efficient and effective process management strategy unique to re-design activities. Data were collected from three industry re-design projects for the evaluation. First, an analysis of the data confirmed that the pattern of design activities and evaluation metrics used by the company’s designers could be mapped onto those that comprise the Anchoring and Adjustment model. Second, the analysis of the data suggested that with additional formalization — based on an anchoring and adjustment approach — the company’s current process management technique could provide more accurate feedback to the designers for the more efficient and effective management of their re-design processes. One of the industry case studies is detailed to illustrate the research results and conclusions.

scholarly journals Market analytics of the rice wine market in Japan: an exploratory study

2019 ◽  
Vol 31 (3) ◽  
pp. 473-491
Author(s):  
Martin Kunc
Keyword(s):  
The Body ◽  
Alcoholic Beverages ◽  
Large Set ◽  
Rice Wine ◽  
Analytical Methodology ◽  
Age And Gender ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Anchoring And Adjustment ◽  
Purchasing Behaviour ◽  
And Gender

Purpose The purpose of this paper is to analyse consumer buying behaviour in the Japanese rice wine, also known as sake market. Design/methodology/approach The study applies a novel qualitative and quantitative analytical methodology to an off-license channel in Japan. The methodology involves the use of anchoring-and-adjustment theory and simulation to a large set of point of sale data. The selection of the brands used for the study are more than 230 brands and more than 150 sake breweries. Findings Age and gender are important factors determining recurrent patterns of purchasing behaviour. Small size packaging, e.g. one cup, has the highest volume in sales, for example, convenience shopping, but it depends on exogenous factors, e.g. summer season or festive events. Research limitations/implications Limitations are related with the lack of specific personal data from consumers that impedes to test behavioural attitudes driving loyalty to brands. Anchoring-and-adjustment theory can be a valid approach to evaluate large longitudinal data sets of purchasing behaviour. Practical implications Results indicate that fragmented markets tend to over-expand the assortment affecting volume stability. However, this dynamics is difficult to avoid when all participants are engaged in this behaviour and the market is strongly segmented by age and gender. Originality/value The paper contributes to the body of knowledge of buyer behaviour in relation to purchasing and consumption for other types of wine. It is the first application in alcoholic beverages of anchor-and-adjustment theory.

Employees’ judgment and decision making in the banking industry

2019 ◽  
Vol 37 (1) ◽  
pp. 382-400 ◽  
Author(s):  
Mijung Kang ◽  
Min Jae Park
Keyword(s):  
Decision Making ◽  
Customer Service ◽  
Banking Industry ◽  
Training System ◽  
Judgment And Decision Making ◽  
Decision Making Process ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Anchoring And Adjustment ◽  
Systematic Biases ◽  
Bank Employees

Purpose Heuristics are used in the judgment and decision-making process of bank employees; however, discussions and research on the type or range of judgmental heuristics are very difficult to find throughout the world. In light of this, the purpose of this paper is to empirically analyze what types of heuristics are used in bank employees’ judgment and decision-making processes and the extent to which those types of heuristics prevent rational decision making due to the systematic biases they generate. In particular, this study aims to conduct empirical research based on various scenarios related to the banking industry. Design/methodology/approach To examine the heuristics in decision-making circumstances and the level of subsequent biases, the present study narrowed the scope of research to the three main types of heuristics introduced by Tversky and Kahneman (1974), namely, representativeness heuristics, availability heuristics and anchoring and adjustment heuristics. To analyze the bank employees’ decision making, this study specifically investigated the level of decision-making heuristics and the level of bias by focusing on these three types of heuristics. This study targeted bank employees who either sell financial products or are engaged in customer service work at a real/physical bank. Findings For representativeness heuristics, this study found bank employees’ judgment of probability was influenced by biases, such as insensitivity to prior probability, insensitivity to sample size, misconception of chance and insensitivity to predictability. Regarding availability heuristics, it found that bank employees judge the probability of events based on the ease of recalling an event instead of the actual frequency of the event, and so they fall prey to systematic biases. Finally, regarding anchoring and adjustment heuristics, this study found that employees fall prey to judgment biases as they judge the probability of conjunctive events and disjunctive events based on anchoring and insufficient adjustment. Originality/value Although people who are well-trained in statistics can avoid rudimentary errors, they fall prey to biased judgment at a similar level to those who are not properly trained in statistics when it comes to more complicated and ambiguous issues. It clearly indicates that it is risky to determine that financial experts would be more rational than the general public in making various judgments required in the policy-making process. To conclude, it is imperative to recognize the existence of heuristics-based systematic biases in the judgment and decision-making process and, furthermore, to reinforce the education and training system to improve bank employees’ rational choice and judgment ability.

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