Communicating the results of criterion referenced prediction measures: Risk categories for the Static-99R and Static-2002R sexual offender risk assessment tools.

2017 ◽  
Vol 29 (5) ◽  
pp. 582-597 ◽  
Author(s):  
R. Karl Hanson ◽  
Kelly M. Babchishin ◽  
L. Maaike Helmus ◽  
David Thornton ◽  
Amy Phenix
Sexual Abuse ◽  
2020 ◽  
pp. 107906322091071
Author(s):  
Chiara Krause ◽  
Alexander Roth ◽  
Markus A. Landolt ◽  
Cornelia Bessler ◽  
Marcel Aebi

Research has identified meaningful subtypes among the heterogeneous population of juveniles who sexually offended (JSO). However, studies that test the validity of risk assessment tools with JSO subtypes are limited. This study compared JSO who offended against a child victim (JSO-C) and JSO who offended against an adolescent/adult victim (JSO-A) with regard to rates of recidivism and the predictive validity of two risk assessment tools (Estimate of Risk of Adolescent Sexual Offense Recidivism [ERASOR] and Juvenile Sexual Offender Assessment Protocol-II [J-SOAP-II]). Data were analyzed from case files of 185 JSO-C and 297 JSO-A aged 12 to 18 years ( M = 14.11, SD = 1.44) from a consecutive sample of JSO with contact sexual offenses. A total of 34 (7.1%) juveniles reoffended sexually, with no significant difference between the subtypes. The present results suggest that the ERASOR, particularly the structured professional judgment, and to a lesser degree the J-SOAP-II are better suited to predicting sexual recidivism in JSO-A than in JSO-C.


2012 ◽  
Vol 18 (6) ◽  
pp. 467-478 ◽  
Author(s):  
Rajan Darjee ◽  
Katharine Russell

SummaryThis article covers what clinicians need to know before undertaking a risk assessment of a sexual offender. It discusses general information about sexual offenders (characteristics, aetiological models, recidivism rates and legal responses); the association between mental disorders and sexual offending; risk and protective factors; and risk assessment tools.


Author(s):  
Rikito Hisamatsu ◽  
Rikito Hisamatsu ◽  
Kei Horie ◽  
Kei Horie

Container yards tend to be located along waterfronts that are exposed to high risk of storm surges. However, risk assessment tools such as vulnerability functions and risk maps for containers have not been sufficiently developed. In addition, damage due to storm surges is expected to increase owing to global warming. This paper aims to assess storm surge impact due to global warming for containers located at three major bays in Japan. First, we developed vulnerability functions for containers against storm surges using an engineering approach. Second, we simulated storm surges at three major bays using the SuWAT model and taking global warming into account. Finally, we developed storm surge risk maps for containers based on current and future situations using the vulnerability function and simulated inundation depth. As a result, we revealed the impact of global warming on storm surge risks for containers quantitatively.


2012 ◽  
Vol 61 (4) ◽  
pp. 662-663 ◽  
Author(s):  
Ian M. Thompson ◽  
Donna P. Ankerst

2021 ◽  
pp. 103985622098403
Author(s):  
Marianne Wyder ◽  
Manaan Kar Ray ◽  
Samara Russell ◽  
Kieran Kinsella ◽  
David Crompton ◽  
...  

Introduction: Risk assessment tools are routinely used to identify patients at high risk. There is increasing evidence that these tools may not be sufficiently accurate to determine the risk of suicide of people, particularly those being treated in community mental health settings. Methods: An outcome analysis for case serials of people who died by suicide between January 2014 and December 2016 and had contact with a public mental health service within 31 days prior to their death. Results: Of the 68 people who had contact, 70.5% had a formal risk assessment. Seventy-five per cent were classified as low risk of suicide. None were identified as being at high risk. While individual risk factors were identified, these did not allow to differentiate between patients classified as low or medium. Discussion: Risk categorisation contributes little to patient safety. Given the dynamic nature of suicide risk, a risk assessment should focus on modifiable risk factors and safety planning rather than risk prediction. Conclusion: The prediction value of suicide risk assessment tools is limited. The risk classifications of high, medium or low could become the basis of denying necessary treatment to many and delivering unnecessary treatment to some and should not be used for care allocation.


2016 ◽  
pp. 65-68
Author(s):  
Oksana Mikitey

Stroke is an important medical and social problem, and stroke risk assessment tools have difficulty on the interaction of risk factors and the effects of certain risk factors with analysis by age, gender, race, because this information fully available to global risk assessment tools. In addition, these tools tend to be focused and usually do not include the entire range of possible factors contributing. The aim of the study was to conduct a comparison of brain vascular lesions pool with ischemic stroke (II) based predictive analysis and assessment of the main risk factors in patients with primary and recurrent ischemic stroke. Prognostically significant risk factors for recurrent ischemic stroke is not effective antihypertensive therapy, multiple stenoses any one pool vascular brain, duration of hypertension (AH) over 5 years and regular smoking patients (p<0.001). In the initial localization in the second vertebrobasilar recurrent stroke was significantly (p<0.05) more developed in the same pool in women than in men; and the localization of the primary carotid AI in the pool, re-developed stroke often unreliable in the same pool in women than in men.


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