Analysis of Small and Medium–Scale River Flood Risk in Case of Exceeding Control Standard Floods Using Hydraulic Model

Exceeding control standard floods pose threats to the management of small and medium–scale rivers. Taking Fuzhouhe river as an example, this paper analyzes the submerged depth, submerged area and arrival time of river flood risk in the case of exceeding control standard floods (with return period of 20, 50, 100 and 200 years) through a coupled one– and two–dimensional hydrodynamic model, draws the flood risk maps and proposes emergency plans. The simulation results of the one–dimensional model reveal that the dikes would be at risk of overflowing for different frequencies of floods, with a higher level of risk on the left bank. The results of the coupled model demonstrate that under all scenarios, the inundation area gradually increases with time until the flood peak subsides, and the larger the flood peak, the faster the inundation area increases. The maximum submerged areas are 42.73 km2, 65.95 km2, 74.86 km2 and 82.71 km2 for four frequencies of flood, respectively. The change of submerged depth under different frequency floods shows a downward–upward–downward trend and the average submerged depth of each frequency floods is about 1.4 m. The flood risk maps of different flood frequencies are created by GIS to analyze flood arrival time, submerged area and submerged depth to plan escape routes and resettlement units. The migration distances are limited within 4 km, the average migration distance is about 2 km, the vehicle evacuation time is less than 20 min, and the walking evacuation time is set to about 70 min. It is concluded that the flood risk of small and medium–scale rivers is a dynamic change process, and dynamic flood assessment, flood warning and embankment modification scheme should be further explored.

DEVELOPING VALIDATION OF FOREST FIRE RISK MAPS BASED ON HISTORICAL FIRE INCIDENCES

Large forest lands are damaged every year due to wild fires in Turkey. Prompt detection and rapid intervention is the key factors of firefighting activities. To be well prepared for the wildfires, it is crucial to determine the fire sensitive areas and then to locate fire extinguishing structures such as fire lookout towers and the firefighting headquarters by consideration these areas. The accuracy of the fire risk maps plays important role in the effectiveness of the fire management strategies and decisions. In this paper, the accuracy of a fire risk map, which was developed by GIS techniques integrated with Multi-Criteria Decision Analysis (MCDA), was evaluated based on the previous fire incidence in the study area. Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP) method was used to generate fire risk map based on topographic features and forest vegetation structures. Then, total of 19 forest fires recorded in the study area in last 50 years were evaluated to validate the risk map. It was found that 23.81% of the area was subject to extreme risk, while 25.81% was of high risk. The results indicated that about 42.10% of the fire events fell into the forested areas with extreme fire risk, while 31,58% were in the high fire risk. Thus, the fire risk map developed by using the GIS-based MCDA can be an effective way for accurate estimation of the fire sensitive areas.

Risk Mapping Based on Risk Assessment Semi-Quantitative Method as a means for Resilience Strengthening Support in Tr anscarpathia

The occurrence of natural and man-made hazards usually leads to the emergence of consequences that affect the living environment. Risk assessment as a process helps to comprehend risk. A risk assessment based on complex semi-qualitative approach to probability of hazard with specified consequences occurrence makes it possible to designate risk levels. In the Transcarpathian region the assessed risk levels distribution has been visualized on risk maps. Such risk maps as a form of risk communication may be used to support resilience strengthening regarding identified hazards and its impact on the society, infrastructure and environment. Based on conducted research, a risk assessment methodology and risk mapping methodology were proposed. Moreover, the usage of proposed methods was referenced to the resilience strengthening and its influence on the sustainable development of the Transcarpathian region. The proposed tool is a solution that is correlated to 30 innovations linking dedicated Disaster Risk Reduction with Sustainable Development Goals.

Vulnerability mapping of karst springs and its application for the delineation of protection zones (Mecsek Karst, Hungary)

Over the past decade or two, vulnerability mapping become a useful tool to determine the sensitivity of karst aquifers and allows the analysis of karstic aquifers affected by human activities. The Tettye Catchment, one of the eight catchments of the Mecsek Karst aquifer (SW Hungary), supplies drinking water for Pécs, the fifth most populous city in Hungary. However, due to its partly urbanized character and heterogeneous karstic features, this catchment is highly sensitive to anthropogenic impacts. In this study we aimed to generate resource vulnerability maps and risk maps to assess the role of physical and anthropogenic factors on groundwater vulnerability in the Mecsek Karst. Two formerly validated methods were used, the COP (Concentration, Overlaying layers and Precipitation) and SA (Slovene Approach) methods. The resource vulnerability maps, validated by former tracer tests, were combined with the hazard map obtained from the COST action 620 and EU Water Directive to generate risk maps. Tracer-based transit times were commonly less than 20 days in the majority of the areas of extreme vulnerability. During the current study, a new protocol has been elaborated for the delineation of the protection zones of karstic aquifers. Comparing the two methods, the SA performed better in terms of intrinsic vulnerability mapping, as it had a higher spatial resolution and was more detailed than the COP map and had a more sophisticated vulnerability indexing. In addition, high spatial correlation was revealed between the transit time maps and the SA map. Reassessed risk zonation, with appropriate legal consequences, likely minimizes undesired human activities within the zone of protection, hence maintaining water quality that complies with the protection acts

Participatory Risk Assessment of Humpback Whale (Megaptera novaeangliae) and Leatherback Turtle (Dermochelys coriacea) Bycatch in Northern Peru

Uncertainties about the magnitude of bycatch in poorly assessed fisheries impede effective conservation management. In northern Peru, small-scale fisheries (SSF) bycatch negatively impacts marine megafauna populations and the livelihoods of fishers which is further elevated by the under-reporting of incidents. Within the last decade, accounts of entangled humpback whales (HBW) (Megaptera novaeangliae) off the northern coast of Peru have increased, while Eastern Pacific leatherback turtles (LBT) (Dermochelys coriacea) have seen over a 90% decline in nesting populations related in large part to bycatch mortality. By leveraging the experience and knowledge of local fishers, our research objectives were to use a low-cost public participation mapping approach to provide a spatio-temporal assessment of bycatch risk for HBW and LBT off two Peruvian fishing ports. We used an open-source, geographic information systems (GIS) model, the Bycatch Risk Assessment (ByRA), as our platform. Broadly, ByRA identifies high bycatch risk areas by estimating the intersection of fishing areas (i.e., stressors) with species habitat and evaluating the exposure and consequence of possible interaction between the two. ByRA outputs provided risk maps and gear risk percentages categorized as high, medium, and low for the study area and seven subzones for HBW in the austral winter and LBT in the austral summer. Overall, the highest bycatch risk for both species was identified within gillnet fisheries near the coast. Bycatch risk for most gear types decreased with distance from the coast. When we separated the ByRA model by port, our map outputs indicate that bycatch management should be port specific, following seasonal and spatial variations for HBW, and specific fishing gear impacts for HBW and LBT. Combined with direct bycatch mitigation techniques, ByRA can be a supportive and informative tool for addressing specific bycatch threats and marine megafauna conservation goals. ByRA supports a participatory framework offering rapid visual information via risk maps and replicable methods for areas with limited resources and data on fisheries and species habitat.

Estimating real snakebite incidence in Colombia by using mathematical modelling and statistical inference.

Snakebite envenoming is a Neglected Tropical Disease affecting mainly deprived populations. Its burden is normally underestimated because patients prefer to seek for traditional medicine. Thus, applying strategies to optimize disease' management and treatment delivery is difficult. We propose a framework to estimate snakebite incidence at a fine political scale based on available data, testing it in Colombia. First, we produced snakebite fine-scale risk maps based on the most medically important venomous snake species (Bothrops asper and B. atrox). We validated them with reported data in the country. Then, we proposed a generalized mixed effect model that estimates total incidence based on produced risk maps, poverty indexes, and an accessibility score that reflects the struggle to reach a medical center. Finally, we calibrated our model with national snakebite reported data from 2010 to 2019 using a Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) algorithm and estimated underreporting based on the total incidence estimation. Our results suggest that 10.3% of total snakebite cases are not reported in Colombia and do not seek medical attention. The Orinoco and Amazonian regions (east of Colombia) share a high snakebite risk with a high underreporting. Our work highlights the importance of multidisciplinary approaches to face snakebite.

Analyzing the health risk assessment of particles in Isfahan Steel Company by AERMOD model

Introduction: One of the effects of air pollution in the community was increasing mortality rate. Determination of contamination was the first step in improving the existing conditions. Therefore, the way of pollutants distribution and the timing and spatial changes were important. This study aimed to evaluate the risk of Parental Emissions (PE) of Isfahan Steel company using AERMOD. Materials and methods: In this research, the distribution of suspended particles of the Isfahan Steel company were modeled in the AERMOD for 1 h, 24 h and yearly average (30×30 km2), then the comparison of the average concentrations modeled with air standards clean country and Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) regional risk maps were provided in Arc GIS. Results: The prediction of the distribution of 24-h mean concentrations indicated that the maximum value for the 24-h average was equal to 8.52 EPA and 25.25 times, the standard Iran's clean air. Also, the prediction of the distribution of average annual concentrations indicated that the maximum value for the average annual time was 91.1 times, the EPA standard and 4.78% higher than Iran's clean air standard. Conclusion: Health risk maps show that the risk spot was not regional in the direction of the region's wind and topography of the region was the main factor in the distribution of risky spots in the region. Legitimate use of the AERMOD could be useful in managing, controlling, and evaluating air pollutants especially in industrial units of the country.

Experience in applying the method of fractal analysis to clarify the boundaries of facies zones when introducing digital technologies in the exploration process

In order to improve the efficiency of exploration drilling at various greenfield license areas owned by Rosneft Oil Company, Tyumen Petroleum Scientific Center LLC has been actively developing and implementing various innovative technologies in recent years that allow increasing the probability of discovering new hydrocarbon deposits. One of such approaches is the use of different methods based on the principles of fractality of geological objects. The article presents the results of using the fractal analysis method to solve one of the applied problems of oil and gas geology, namely, the correction of the boundaries of facies zones on facies maps, which are the basis for constructing risk maps for the "reservoir". It is shown that the boundaries of the facies zones on facies maps, built mainly on seismic data and a limited amount of materials from exploration drilling, have a large variability. The found statistical relationship between the distribution of the total reservoir thicknesses in different facies zones and the fractal dimension of the traps made it possible to correct facies and risk maps.