scholarly journals Distance to native climatic niche margins explains establishment success of alien mammals

2021 ◽  
Vol 12 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Olivier Broennimann ◽  
Blaise Petitpierre ◽  
Mathieu Chevalier ◽  
Manuela González-Suárez ◽  
Jonathan M. Jeschke ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Species Distribution Models ◽  
Risk Assessments ◽  
Climatic Suitability ◽  
Distribution Models ◽  
Mammal Species ◽  
Climatic Niche ◽  
Climate Matching ◽  
Establishment Success ◽  
Historical Factors ◽  
A Site

AbstractOne key hypothesis explaining the fate of exotic species introductions posits that the establishment of a self-sustaining population in the invaded range can only succeed within conditions matching the native climatic niche. Yet, this hypothesis remains untested for individual release events. Using a dataset of 979 introductions of 173 mammal species worldwide, we show that climate-matching to the realized native climatic niche, measured by a new Niche Margin Index (NMI), is a stronger predictor of establishment success than most previously tested life-history attributes and historical factors. Contrary to traditional climatic suitability metrics derived from species distribution models, NMI is based on niche margins and provides a measure of how distant a site is inside or, importantly, outside the niche. Besides many applications in research in ecology and evolution, NMI as a measure of native climatic niche-matching in risk assessments could improve efforts to prevent invasions and avoid costly eradications.

scholarly journals Distance to native niche margins explains establishment success of alien mammals

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Olivier Broennimann ◽  
Blaise Petitpierre ◽  
Mathieu Chevalier ◽  
Manuela González-Suárez ◽  
Jonathan Jeschke ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Life History ◽  
Species Distribution Models ◽  
Risk Assessments ◽  
Climatic Suitability ◽  
Distribution Models ◽  
Mammal Species ◽  
Establishment Success ◽  
Species Introductions ◽  
Historical Factors ◽  
A Site

Abstract Why do some alien species introductions fail while others are successful? One key hypothesis is that in order for a species to invade a new range, it must initially establish successfully in conditions within its native climatic niche (NCN). Yet, this hypothesis has largely remained untested at the level of individual release events. Using a dataset of 989 introductions of 177 mammal species worldwide, we show that climatic matching to the NCN, measured by a new Niche Margin Index (NMI), is a stronger predictor of establishment success than most previously tested life-history attributes and historical factors. Contrary to traditional climatic suitability metrics derived from species distribution models, the NMI is based on niche margins and provides a measure of how distant a site is inside or, importantly, outside the NCN. Integrating NMI as a measure of NCN-matching in risk assessments could improve efforts to prevent invasions and avoid costly eradications.

scholarly journals Links between plant species’ spatial and temporal responses to a warming climate

2014 ◽  
Vol 281 (1779) ◽  
pp. 20133017 ◽  
Author(s):  
Tatsuya Amano ◽  
Robert P. Freckleton ◽  
Simon A. Queenborough ◽  
Simon W. Doxford ◽  
Richard J. Smithers ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Species Distribution Models ◽  
Range Shifts ◽  
Niche Conservatism ◽  
Historical Records ◽  
Perennial Species ◽  
Distribution Models ◽  
Climatic Niche ◽  
Warming Climate ◽  
Phenological Changes

To generate realistic projections of species’ responses to climate change, we need to understand the factors that limit their ability to respond. Although climatic niche conservatism, the maintenance of a species’s climatic niche over time, is a critical assumption in niche-based species distribution models, little is known about how universal it is and how it operates. In particular, few studies have tested the role of climatic niche conservatism via phenological changes in explaining the reported wide variance in the extent of range shifts among species. Using historical records of the phenology and spatial distribution of British plants under a warming climate, we revealed that: (i) perennial species, as well as those with weaker or lagged phenological responses to temperature, experienced a greater increase in temperature during flowering (i.e. failed to maintain climatic niche via phenological changes); (ii) species that failed to maintain climatic niche via phenological changes showed greater northward range shifts; and (iii) there was a complementary relationship between the levels of climatic niche conservatism via phenological changes and range shifts. These results indicate that even species with high climatic niche conservatism might not show range shifts as instead they track warming temperatures during flowering by advancing their phenology.

scholarly journals Climatic Suitability Derived from Species Distribution Models Captures Community Responses to an Extreme Drought Episode

Ecosystems ◽  
2018 ◽  
Vol 22 (1) ◽  
pp. 77-90 ◽  
Author(s):  
María Ángeles Pérez Navarro ◽  
Gerard Sapes ◽  
Enric Batllori ◽  
Josep Maria Serra-Diaz ◽  
Miguel Angel Esteve ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Species Distribution ◽  
Species Distribution Models ◽  
Extreme Drought ◽  
Climatic Suitability ◽  
Community Responses ◽  
Distribution Models ◽  
Drought Episode

scholarly journals Acacia dealbata invasion in Chile: Surprises from climatic niche and species distribution models

2019 ◽  
Vol 9 (13) ◽  
pp. 7562-7573 ◽  
Author(s):  
Bárbara Langdon ◽  
Aníbal Pauchard ◽  
Ramiro O. Bustamante
Keyword(s):  
Species Distribution ◽  
Species Distribution Models ◽  
Distribution Models ◽  
Climatic Niche ◽  
Acacia Dealbata

Determinants of establishment success for introduced exotic mammals

2009 ◽  
Vol 36 (3) ◽  
pp. 192 ◽  
Author(s):  
Mary Bomford ◽  
Rebecca O. Darbyshire ◽  
Lucy Randall
Keyword(s):  
New Species ◽  
New Zealand ◽  
Geographic Range ◽  
Small Sample ◽  
Risk Assessments ◽  
Suitable Habitat ◽  
Mammal Species ◽  
Establishment Success ◽  
In The Wild ◽  
Small Sample Sizes

We conducted comparisons for exotic mammal species introduced to New Zealand (28 successful, 4 failed), Australia (24, 17) and Britain (15, 16). Modelling of variables associated with establishment success was constrained by small sample sizes and phylogenetic dependence, so our results should be interpreted with caution. Successful species were subject to more release events, had higher climate matches between their overseas geographic range and their country of introduction, had larger overseas geographic range sizes and were more likely to have established an exotic population elsewhere than was the case for failed species. Of the mammals introduced to New Zealand, successful species also had larger areas of suitable habitat than did failed species. Our findings may guide risk assessments for the import of live mammals to reduce the rate new species establish in the wild.

scholarly journals Interannual climate variability data improves niche estimates in species distribution models

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Dirk Nikolaus Karger ◽  
Bianca Saladin ◽  
Rafael O. Wueest ◽  
Catherine H. Graham ◽  
Damaris Zurell ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Variability ◽  
Spatial Variability ◽  
Species Distribution ◽  
Temporal Variability ◽  
Species Distribution Models ◽  
Essential Element ◽  
Spatial And Temporal Variability ◽  
Distribution Models ◽  
Mammal Species

Aim: Climate is an essential element of species' niche estimates in many current ecological applications such as species distribution models (SDMs). Climate predictors are often used in the form of long-term mean values. Yet, climate can also be described as spatial or temporal variability for variables like temperature or precipitation. Such variability, spatial or temporal, offers additional insights into niche properties. Here, we test to what degree spatial variability and long-term temporal variability in temperature and precipitation improve SDM predictions globally. Location: Global. Time period: 1979-2013. Major taxa studies: Mammal, Amphibians, Reptiles. Methods: We use three different SDM algorithms, and a set of 833 amphibian, 779 reptile, and 2211 mammal species to quantify the effect of spatial and temporal climate variability in SDMs. All SDMs were cross-validated and accessed for their performance using the Area under the Curve (AUC) and the True Skill Statistic (TSS). Results: Mean performance of SDMs with climatic means as predictors was TSS=0.71 and AUC=0.90. The inclusion of spatial variability offers a significant gain in SDM performance (mean TSS=0.74, mean AUC=0.92), as does the inclusion of temporal variability (mean TSS=0.80, mean AUC=0.94). Including both spatial and temporal variability in SDMs shows similarly high TSS and AUC scores. Main conclusions: Accounting for temporal rather than spatial variability in climate improved the SDM prediction especially in exotherm groups such as amphibians and reptiles, while for endotermic mammals no such improvement was observed. These results indicate that more detailed information about temporal climate variability offers a highly promising avenue for improving niche estimates and calls for a new set of standard bioclimatic predictors in SDM research.

Geographical isolation and invasion ecology

2015 ◽  
Vol 39 (6) ◽  
pp. 697-710 ◽  
Author(s):  
Thomas R. Etherington
Keyword(s):  
Invasive Species ◽  
Population Growth ◽  
Native Species ◽  
Species Distribution Models ◽  
Invasion Ecology ◽  
Risk Assessments ◽  
Geographical Isolation ◽  
Distribution Models ◽  
Cost Modelling ◽  
Geographical Characteristic

Isolation is a fundamental geographical characteristic that plays an important role in invasion ecology. However, risk mapping for established non-native species currently tends to ignore isolation, and instead focuses on the risk of population growth through the use of species distribution models. By focusing on how geographical isolation can be used to improve invasive species risk assessments this paper aims to: (i) provide a brief review of how methods to quantify isolation have developed, (ii) describe least-cost modelling as one approach to quantify isolation, (iii) promote catchment area mapping as a method of continuous isolation mapping that can improve invasive species risk assessments that may currently only consider risk from population growth, and (iv) discuss ways in which geographical isolation could be modified to control invasive species.

Sign in / Sign up

Export Citation Format

Share Document