scholarly journals Links between plant species’ spatial and temporal responses to a warming climate

2014 ◽  
Vol 281 (1779) ◽  
pp. 20133017 ◽  
Author(s):  
Tatsuya Amano ◽  
Robert P. Freckleton ◽  
Simon A. Queenborough ◽  
Simon W. Doxford ◽  
Richard J. Smithers ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Species Distribution Models ◽  
Range Shifts ◽  
Niche Conservatism ◽  
Historical Records ◽  
Perennial Species ◽  
Distribution Models ◽  
Climatic Niche ◽  
Warming Climate ◽  
Phenological Changes

To generate realistic projections of species’ responses to climate change, we need to understand the factors that limit their ability to respond. Although climatic niche conservatism, the maintenance of a species’s climatic niche over time, is a critical assumption in niche-based species distribution models, little is known about how universal it is and how it operates. In particular, few studies have tested the role of climatic niche conservatism via phenological changes in explaining the reported wide variance in the extent of range shifts among species. Using historical records of the phenology and spatial distribution of British plants under a warming climate, we revealed that: (i) perennial species, as well as those with weaker or lagged phenological responses to temperature, experienced a greater increase in temperature during flowering (i.e. failed to maintain climatic niche via phenological changes); (ii) species that failed to maintain climatic niche via phenological changes showed greater northward range shifts; and (iii) there was a complementary relationship between the levels of climatic niche conservatism via phenological changes and range shifts. These results indicate that even species with high climatic niche conservatism might not show range shifts as instead they track warming temperatures during flowering by advancing their phenology.

scholarly journals Vulnerability to climate change of a microendemic lizard species from the central Andes

2021 ◽  
Vol 11 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
A. Laspiur ◽  
J. C. Santos ◽  
S. M. Medina ◽  
J. E. Pizarro ◽  
E. A. Sanabria ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Species Distribution Models ◽  
Activity Patterns ◽  
Geographic Range ◽  
Behavioral Thermoregulation ◽  
Rapid Loss ◽  
Distribution Models ◽  
Lizard Species ◽  
Vulnerability To Climate Change

AbstractGiven the rapid loss of biodiversity as consequence of climate change, greater knowledge of ecophysiological and natural history traits are crucial to determine which environmental factors induce stress and drive the decline of threatened species. Liolaemus montanezi (Liolaemidae), a xeric-adapted lizard occurring only in a small geographic range in west-central Argentina, constitutes an excellent model for studies on the threats of climate change on such microendemic species. We describe field data on activity patterns, use of microhabitat, behavioral thermoregulation, and physiology to produce species distribution models (SDMs) based on climate and ecophysiological data. Liolaemus montanezi inhabits a thermally harsh environment which remarkably impacts their activity and thermoregulation. The species shows a daily bimodal pattern of activity and mostly occupies shaded microenvironments. Although the individuals thermoregulate at body temperatures below their thermal preference they avoid high-temperature microenvironments probably to avoid overheating. The population currently persists because of the important role of the habitat physiognomy and not because of niche tracking, seemingly prevented by major rivers that form boundaries of their geographic range. We found evidence of habitat opportunities in the current range and adjacent areas that will likely remain suitable to the year 2070, reinforcing the relevance of the river floodplain for the species’ avoidance of extinction.

scholarly journals Using species distribution models to infer potential climate change-induced range shifts of freshwater fish in south-eastern Australia

2011 ◽  
Vol 62 (9) ◽  
pp. 1043 ◽  
Author(s):  
Nick Bond ◽  
Jim Thomson ◽  
Paul Reich ◽  
Janet Stein
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Freshwater Fish ◽  
Species Distribution ◽  
Climate Change Scenario ◽  
Species Distribution Models ◽  
Range Shifts ◽  
Future Climate Change ◽  
Change Scenario ◽  
Climate Change Scenarios ◽  
Distribution Models

There are few quantitative predictions for the impacts of climate change on freshwater fish in Australia. We developed species distribution models (SDMs) linking historical fish distributions for 43 species from Victorian streams to a suite of hydro-climatic and catchment predictors, and applied these models to explore predicted range shifts under future climate-change scenarios. Here, we present summary results for the 43 species, together with a more detailed analysis for a subset of species with distinct distributions in relation to temperature and hydrology. Range shifts increased from the lower to upper climate-change scenarios, with most species predicted to undergo some degree of range shift. Changes in total occupancy ranged from –38% to +63% under the lower climate-change scenario to –47% to +182% under the upper climate-change scenario. We do, however, caution that range expansions are more putative than range contractions, because the effects of barriers, limited dispersal and potential life-history factors are likely to exclude some areas from being colonised. As well as potentially informing more mechanistic modelling approaches, quantitative predictions such as these should be seen as representing hypotheses to be tested and discussed, and should be valuable for informing long-term strategies to protect aquatic biota.

scholarly journals Incorporating spatial autocorrelation into species distribution models alters forecasts of climate‐mediated range shifts

2014 ◽  
Vol 20 (8) ◽  
pp. 2566-2579 ◽  
Author(s):  
Beth Crase ◽  
Adam Liedloff ◽  
Peter A. Vesk ◽  
Yusuke Fukuda ◽  
Brendan A. Wintle
Keyword(s):  
Spatial Autocorrelation ◽  
Species Distribution ◽  
Species Distribution Models ◽  
Range Shifts ◽  
Distribution Models

scholarly journals Acacia dealbata invasion in Chile: Surprises from climatic niche and species distribution models

2019 ◽  
Vol 9 (13) ◽  
pp. 7562-7573 ◽  
Author(s):  
Bárbara Langdon ◽  
Aníbal Pauchard ◽  
Ramiro O. Bustamante
Keyword(s):  
Species Distribution ◽  
Species Distribution Models ◽  
Distribution Models ◽  
Climatic Niche ◽  
Acacia Dealbata

The role of demography, intra-species variation, and species distribution models in species' projections under climate change

Ecography ◽  
2014 ◽  
Vol 38 (3) ◽  
pp. 221-230 ◽  
Author(s):  
Rebecca M. Swab ◽  
Helen M. Regan ◽  
Diethart Matthies ◽  
Ute Becker ◽  
Hans Henrik Bruun
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Species Distribution ◽  
Species Distribution Models ◽  
Species Variation ◽  
Distribution Models

scholarly journals Morphological and molecular evidence support the taxonomic separation of the medically important Neotropical spiders Phoneutria depilata (Strand, 1909) and P. boliviensis (F.O. Pickard-Cambridge, 1897) (Araneae, Ctenidae)

ZooKeys ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 1022 ◽  
pp. 13-50
Author(s):  
Nicolas A. Hazzi ◽  
Gustavo Hormiga
Keyword(s):  
Species Distribution ◽  
Species Delimitation ◽  
Species Distribution Models ◽  
Allopatric Speciation ◽  
Molecular Evidence ◽  
Niche Conservatism ◽  
Suitable Habitat ◽  
Distribution Models ◽  
Nucleotide Sequence Data ◽  
Occurrence Records

The species of the genus Phoneutria (Ctenidae), also called banana spiders, are considered amongst the most venomous spiders in the world. In this study we revalidate P. depilata (Strand, 1909), which had been synonymized with P. boliviensisis (F.O. Pickard-Cambridge, 1897), using morphological and nucleotide sequence data (COI and ITS-2) together with species delimitation methods. We synonymized Ctenus peregrinoides, Strand, 1910 and Phoneutria colombiana Schmidt, 1956 with P. depilata. Furthermore, we designated Ctenus signativenter Strand, 1910 as a nomen dubium because the exact identity of this species cannot be ascertained with immature specimens, but we note that the type locality suggests that the C. signativenter syntypes belong to P. depilata. We also provide species distribution models for both species of Phoneutria and test hypotheses of niche conservatism under an allopatric speciation model. Our phylogenetic analyses support the monophyly of the genus Phoneutria and recover P. boliviensis and P. depilata as sister species, although with low nodal support. In addition, the tree-based species delimitation methods also supported the separate identities of these two species. Phoneutria boliviensis and P. depilata present allopatric distributions separated by the Andean mountain system. Species distribution models indicate lowland tropical rain forest ecosystems as the most suitable habitat for these two Phoneutria species. In addition, we demonstrate the value of citizen science platforms like iNaturalist in improving species distribution knowledge based on occurrence records. Phoneutria depilata and P. boliviensis present niche conservatism following the expected neutral model of allopatric speciation. The compiled occurrence records and distribution maps for these two species, together with the morphological diagnosis of both species, will help to identify risk areas of accidental bites and assist health professionals to determine the identity of the species involved in bites, especially for P. depilata.

scholarly journals Niche conservatism in a plant with long invasion history: the case of the Peruvian peppertree (Schinus molle, Anacardiaceae) in Mexico

2020 ◽  
Vol 153 (1) ◽  
pp. 3-11
Author(s):  
Jorge E. Ramírez-Albores ◽  
Gustavo Bizama ◽  
Ramiro O. Bustamante ◽  
Ernesto I. Badano
Keyword(s):  
Invasive Plants ◽  
Species Distribution ◽  
Environmental Conditions ◽  
Species Distribution Models ◽  
Large Fraction ◽  
Niche Conservatism ◽  
Invasion History ◽  
Distribution Models ◽  
Schinus Molle ◽  
Suitable Habitats

Background and aim – Invasive plants should only colonize habitats meeting the environmental conditions included in their native niches. However, if they invade habitats with novel environmental conditions, this can induce shifts in their niches. This may occur in plants with long invasion histories because they interacted with the environmental conditions of invaded regions over long periods of time. We focused on this issue and evaluated whether the niche of the oldest plant invader reported in Mexico, the Peruvian peppertree, is still conserved after almost 500 years of invasion history. Methods – We compared climatic niches of the species between the native and invaded region. We later used species distribution models (SDM) to visualize the geographical expression of both niches in Mexico. Results – The invasive niche of the Peruvian peppertree is fully nested within the native niche. Although this suggests that the niche is conserved, this also indicates that a large fraction of the native niche is empty in the invaded region. The SDM from the native region indicated that Mexico contains habitats meeting the conditions included in this empty fraction of the native niche and, thus, this invasion should continue expanding. Nevertheless, the SDM calibrated with data from the invaded region indicated that peppertrees have colonized all suitable habitats indicated by its invasive niche and, thus, their populations should no longer expand. Conclusion – Our results suggests that the niche of the Peruvian peppertree is partially conserved in Mexico. This may have occurred because individuals introduced into Mexico constituted a small, nonrepresentative sample of the full niche of the species.

scholarly journals Distance to native climatic niche margins explains establishment success of alien mammals

2021 ◽  
Vol 12 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Olivier Broennimann ◽  
Blaise Petitpierre ◽  
Mathieu Chevalier ◽  
Manuela González-Suárez ◽  
Jonathan M. Jeschke ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Species Distribution Models ◽  
Risk Assessments ◽  
Climatic Suitability ◽  
Distribution Models ◽  
Mammal Species ◽  
Climatic Niche ◽  
Climate Matching ◽  
Establishment Success ◽  
Historical Factors ◽  
A Site

AbstractOne key hypothesis explaining the fate of exotic species introductions posits that the establishment of a self-sustaining population in the invaded range can only succeed within conditions matching the native climatic niche. Yet, this hypothesis remains untested for individual release events. Using a dataset of 979 introductions of 173 mammal species worldwide, we show that climate-matching to the realized native climatic niche, measured by a new Niche Margin Index (NMI), is a stronger predictor of establishment success than most previously tested life-history attributes and historical factors. Contrary to traditional climatic suitability metrics derived from species distribution models, NMI is based on niche margins and provides a measure of how distant a site is inside or, importantly, outside the niche. Besides many applications in research in ecology and evolution, NMI as a measure of native climatic niche-matching in risk assessments could improve efforts to prevent invasions and avoid costly eradications.

Accommodating the role of site memory in dynamic species distribution models

Ecology ◽  
2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Graziella V. DiRenzo ◽  
David A.W. Miller ◽  
Blake R. Hossack ◽  
Brent H. Sigafus ◽  
Paige E. Howell ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Species Distribution ◽  
Species Distribution Models ◽  
Distribution Models
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