scholarly journals Changing impacts of Alaska-Aleutian subduction zone tsunamis in California under future sea-level rise

2021 ◽  
Vol 12 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Tina Dura ◽  
Andra J. Garner ◽  
Robert Weiss ◽  
Robert E. Kopp ◽  
Simon E. Engelhart ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Los Angeles ◽  
Sea Level Rise ◽  
Subduction Zone ◽  
Sea Level ◽  
Source Region ◽  
Coastal Hazards ◽  
Long Beach ◽  
Distant Source ◽  
Case Scenario ◽  
Worst Case

AbstractThe amplification of coastal hazards such as distant-source tsunamis under future relative sea-level rise (RSLR) is poorly constrained. In southern California, the Alaska-Aleutian subduction zone has been identified as an earthquake source region of particular concern for a worst-case scenario distant-source tsunami. Here, we explore how RSLR over the next century will influence future maximum nearshore tsunami heights (MNTH) at the Ports of Los Angeles and Long Beach. Earthquake and tsunami modeling combined with local probabilistic RSLR projections show the increased potential for more frequent, relatively low magnitude earthquakes to produce distant-source tsunamis that exceed historically observed MNTH. By 2100, under RSLR projections for a high-emissions representative concentration pathway (RCP8.5), the earthquake magnitude required to produce >1 m MNTH falls from ~Mw9.1 (required today) to Mw8.0, a magnitude that is ~6.7 times more frequent along the Alaska-Aleutian subduction zone.

scholarly journals Quantifying processes contributing to coastal hazards to inform coastal climate resilience assessments, demonstrated for the Caribbean Sea

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Svetlana Jevrejeva ◽  
Lucy Bricheno ◽  
Jennifer Brown ◽  
David Byrne ◽  
Michela De Dominicis ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Sea Level Rise ◽  
Sea Level ◽  
Storm Surges ◽  
Coastal Hazards ◽  
Caribbean Region ◽  
Case Scenario ◽  
Worst Case ◽  
Quantitative Evidence ◽  
Global Estimate ◽  
The Caribbean

Abstract. Scientific evidence is critical to underpin the decisions associated with shoreline management, to build climate resilient communities and infrastructure. We explore the role of waves, storm surges and sea level rise for the Caribbean region with a focus on coastal impacts in the eastern Caribbean islands. We simulate past extreme events and a worst-case scenario, modelling the storm surges and waves, suggesting a storm surge might reach 1.5 m, depending on the underwater topography. Coastal wave heights up to 12 m offshore and up to 5 m near the coast of St Vincent are simulated with a regional wave model. We deliver probabilistic sea level projections for 2100, with a low probability/high impact estimate of possible sea level rise up to 2.2 m, exceeding the 1.8 m global estimate for the same scenario. We introduce a Combined Vulnerability Index, which allows a quantitative assessment of relative risk across the region, showing that sea level rise is the most important risk factor everywhere, but wave impacts are important on windward coasts, increasing to the north, towards the main hurricane track. Our work provides quantitative evidence for policy makers, scientists, and local communities to actively prepare for and protect against climate change.

scholarly journals Quantifying processes contributing to marine hazards to inform coastal climate resilience assessments, demonstrated for the Caribbean Sea

2020 ◽  
Vol 20 (10) ◽  
pp. 2609-2626
Author(s):  
Svetlana Jevrejeva ◽  
Lucy Bricheno ◽  
Jennifer Brown ◽  
David Byrne ◽  
Michela De Dominicis ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Sea Level Rise ◽  
Sea Level ◽  
Scientific Evidence ◽  
Storm Surges ◽  
Caribbean Region ◽  
Case Scenario ◽  
Worst Case ◽  
Quantitative Evidence ◽  
Global Estimate ◽  
The Caribbean

Abstract. Scientific evidence is critical to underpin the decisions associated with shoreline management, to build climate-resilient communities and infrastructure. We explore the role of waves, storm surges and sea level rise for the Caribbean region with a focus on coastal impacts in the eastern Caribbean islands. We simulate past extreme events and a worst-case scenario, modelling the storm surges and waves, suggesting a storm surge might reach 1.5 m, depending on the underwater topography. Coastal wave heights of up to 12 m offshore and up to 5 m near the coast of St Vincent are simulated with a regional wave model. We deliver probabilistic sea level projections for 2100, with a low-probability–high-impact estimate of possible sea level rise up to 2.2 m, exceeding the 1.8 m global estimate for the same scenario. We introduce a combined vulnerability index, which allows for a quantitative assessment of relative risk across the region, showing that sea level rise is the most important risk factor everywhere but wave impacts are important on windward coasts, increasing to the north, towards the main hurricane track. Our work provides quantitative evidence for policy-makers, scientists and local communities to actively prepare for and protect against climate change.

scholarly journals IMPACT OF SEA LEVEL RISE ON THE ACCESSIBILITY OF COASTAL PORTS: A CASE STUDY OF THE PORT OF ZEEBRUGGE (BELGIUM)

2018 ◽  
pp. 107
Author(s):  
Gerasimos A. Kolokythas ◽  
Bart De Maerschalck ◽  
Joris Vanlede ◽  
Kai Chu
Keyword(s):  
Numerical Simulations ◽  
Sea Level Rise ◽  
Sea Level ◽  
Coastal Zone ◽  
Current Situation ◽  
Reference Scenario ◽  
Case Scenario ◽  
Worst Case ◽  
Access Channel

The effect of sea level rise on the hydrodynamic flow in the Belgian coastal zone is investigated in the light of the nautical accessibility of the port of Zeebrugge in Belgium. To this end, numerical simulations are performed considering three different scenarios of sea level rise along with a reference scenario (current situation). Specifically, a moderate, a warm and a worst case scenario of sea level rise (SLR) equal to 60 cm, 90 cm and 200 cm by the year 2100, are considered. The main objective is to find out how the strong tidal currents, which are mainly directed transversely to the access channel and limit the access to the port to a certain tidal window, will be affected by the considered SLR scenarios.

scholarly journals In the Wake of Change: An Urban Design Response to Rising Sea Levels in Wellington City

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
◽  
Emily Oakley
Keyword(s):  
Sea Level Rise ◽  
Sea Level ◽  
Urban Design ◽  
Sea Level Change ◽  
City Council ◽  
Case Scenario ◽  
Worst Case ◽  
Level Change ◽  
Sea Wall ◽  
The City

<p>This thesis focuses on possible urban design responses to a worst-case scenario for sea level change: a rise of one metre by the year 2100. Wellington City is comparable to many coastal cities around the world; much of the city sits on lowlying reclaimed land. A rise in sea level of one metre could result in extensive damage to buildings and infrastructure. Scientists predict that seas will rise somewhere between 0.18m and 1.2m by the end of the century. New Zealand’s Ministry for the Environment advises local bodies to plan for a rise in sea level of at least 0.8m by the year 2090. Wellington City Council has begun to research the possible effects of sea level rise on the city but has not yet seriously considered design options in response to this. The uncertainties regarding the extent of sea level rise mean its impact on Wellington City could be minimal (0.5 m rise) or extensive (1.5m rise). Dykes, sea walls and levees have been constructed for centuries to protect local populations. These can be detrimental to urban quality, and can impede the connections between cities and their waterfronts. Up until now, their effects on overall urban design have rarely been considered. Urban designs adopted internationally for flood defence were reviewed with regard to Wellington City’s needs. A mapping study of three possible scenarios (0.5m, 1.0m, 1.5m) for sea level change in Wellington City has been made, including assessment with respect to urban design principles. This thesis concludes by offering a realistic response to the one metre scenario. Three sections of the city are developed further to demonstrate how a unified response could be developed throughout the city. The chosen response to the problem of sea level rise in Wellington City seeks to preserve sense of place while introducing new urban design concepts. The chosen design uses a sea wall to protect the existing city against a one-metre rise in sea level, and creates an amphibious zone on its seaward side. The sea wall sits inside the city rather than around it. As well as forming a boundary, it is a public structure offering visual connections between city and sea, and maintaining the essential character of the waterfront. The amphibious zone is designed to withstand flooding during storms and high sea surges. Design in this zone includes new building processes that adapt with sea level changes.</p>

scholarly journals In the Wake of Change: An Urban Design Response to Rising Sea Levels in Wellington City

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
◽  
Emily Oakley
Keyword(s):  
Sea Level Rise ◽  
Sea Level ◽  
Urban Design ◽  
Sea Level Change ◽  
City Council ◽  
Case Scenario ◽  
Worst Case ◽  
Level Change ◽  
Sea Wall ◽  
The City

<p>This thesis focuses on possible urban design responses to a worst-case scenario for sea level change: a rise of one metre by the year 2100. Wellington City is comparable to many coastal cities around the world; much of the city sits on lowlying reclaimed land. A rise in sea level of one metre could result in extensive damage to buildings and infrastructure. Scientists predict that seas will rise somewhere between 0.18m and 1.2m by the end of the century. New Zealand’s Ministry for the Environment advises local bodies to plan for a rise in sea level of at least 0.8m by the year 2090. Wellington City Council has begun to research the possible effects of sea level rise on the city but has not yet seriously considered design options in response to this. The uncertainties regarding the extent of sea level rise mean its impact on Wellington City could be minimal (0.5 m rise) or extensive (1.5m rise). Dykes, sea walls and levees have been constructed for centuries to protect local populations. These can be detrimental to urban quality, and can impede the connections between cities and their waterfronts. Up until now, their effects on overall urban design have rarely been considered. Urban designs adopted internationally for flood defence were reviewed with regard to Wellington City’s needs. A mapping study of three possible scenarios (0.5m, 1.0m, 1.5m) for sea level change in Wellington City has been made, including assessment with respect to urban design principles. This thesis concludes by offering a realistic response to the one metre scenario. Three sections of the city are developed further to demonstrate how a unified response could be developed throughout the city. The chosen response to the problem of sea level rise in Wellington City seeks to preserve sense of place while introducing new urban design concepts. The chosen design uses a sea wall to protect the existing city against a one-metre rise in sea level, and creates an amphibious zone on its seaward side. The sea wall sits inside the city rather than around it. As well as forming a boundary, it is a public structure offering visual connections between city and sea, and maintaining the essential character of the waterfront. The amphibious zone is designed to withstand flooding during storms and high sea surges. Design in this zone includes new building processes that adapt with sea level changes.</p>

scholarly journals Centennial response of Greenland’s three largest outlet glaciers

2020 ◽  
Vol 11 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Shfaqat A. Khan ◽  
Anders A. Bjørk ◽  
Jonathan L. Bamber ◽  
Mathieu Morlighem ◽  
Michael Bevis ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Mass Loss ◽  
Sea Level Rise ◽  
Sea Level ◽  
Greenland Ice Sheet ◽  
External Forcing ◽  
Case Scenario ◽  
Worst Case ◽  
Worst Case Scenario ◽  
Historical Photographs

AbstractThe Greenland Ice Sheet is the largest land ice contributor to sea level rise. This will continue in the future but at an uncertain rate and observational estimates are limited to the last few decades. Understanding the long-term glacier response to external forcing is key to improving projections. Here we use historical photographs to calculate ice loss from 1880–2012 for Jakobshavn, Helheim, and Kangerlussuaq glacier. We estimate ice loss corresponding to a sea level rise of 8.1 ± 1.1 millimetres from these three glaciers. Projections of mass loss for these glaciers, using the worst-case scenario, Representative Concentration Pathways 8.5, suggest a sea level contribution of 9.1–14.9 mm by 2100. RCP8.5 implies an additional global temperature increase of 3.7 °C by 2100, approximately four times larger than that which has taken place since 1880. We infer that projections forced by RCP8.5 underestimate glacier mass loss which could exceed this worst-case scenario.

Worst case scenario as stakeholder decision support: a 5- to 6-m sea level rise in the Rhone delta, France

2008 ◽  
Vol 91 (1-2) ◽  
pp. 123-143 ◽  
Author(s):  
Marc Poumadère ◽  
Claire Mays ◽  
Gabriela Pfeifle ◽  
Athanasios T. Vafeidis
Keyword(s):  
Decision Support ◽  
Sea Level Rise ◽  
Sea Level ◽  
Case Scenario ◽  
Worst Case ◽  
Worst Case Scenario ◽  
Rhône Delta ◽  
Rhone Delta

scholarly journals Using Virtual Reality in Sea Level Rise Planning and Community Engagement—An Overview

Water ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 13 (9) ◽  
pp. 1142
Author(s):  
Juliano Calil ◽  
Geraldine Fauville ◽  
Anna Carolina Muller Queiroz ◽  
Kelly L. Leo ◽  
Alyssa G. Newton Mann ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Virtual Reality ◽  
Sea Level Rise ◽  
Sea Level ◽  
Community Outreach ◽  
Coastal Communities ◽  
Coastal Hazards ◽  
Multidisciplinary Teams ◽  
Simple Task ◽  
Coastal Risks

As coastal communities around the globe contend with the impacts of climate change including coastal hazards such as sea level rise and more frequent coastal storms, educating stakeholders and the general public has become essential in order to adapt to and mitigate these risks. Communicating SLR and other coastal risks is not a simple task. First, SLR is a phenomenon that is abstract as it is physically distant from many people; second, the rise of the sea is a slow and temporally distant process which makes this issue psychologically distant from our everyday life. Virtual reality (VR) simulations may offer a way to overcome some of these challenges, enabling users to learn key principles related to climate change and coastal risks in an immersive, interactive, and safe learning environment. This article first presents the literature on environmental issues communication and engagement; second, it introduces VR technology evolution and expands the discussion on VR application for environmental literacy. We then provide an account of how three coastal communities have used VR experiences developed by multidisciplinary teams—including residents—to support communication and community outreach focused on SLR and discuss their implications.

scholarly journals Quantifying Uncertainty in Exposure to Coastal Hazards Associated with Both Climate Change and Adaptation Strategies: A U.S. Pacific Northwest Alternative Coastal Futures Analysis

Water ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 13 (4) ◽  
pp. 545
Author(s):  
Alexis K. Mills ◽  
Peter Ruggiero ◽  
John P. Bolte ◽  
Katherine A. Serafin ◽  
Eva Lipiec
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Sea Level Rise ◽  
Sea Level ◽  
Performance Metrics ◽  
Coastal Flooding ◽  
Water Levels ◽  
Coastal Hazards ◽  
Policy Decisions ◽  
Management Decisions ◽  
Quantifying Uncertainty

Coastal communities face heightened risk to coastal flooding and erosion hazards due to sea-level rise, changing storminess patterns, and evolving human development pressures. Incorporating uncertainty associated with both climate change and the range of possible adaptation measures is essential for projecting the evolving exposure to coastal flooding and erosion, as well as associated community vulnerability through time. A spatially explicit agent-based modeling platform, that provides a scenario-based framework for examining interactions between human and natural systems across a landscape, was used in Tillamook County, OR (USA) to explore strategies that may reduce exposure to coastal hazards within the context of climate change. Probabilistic simulations of extreme water levels were used to assess the impacts of variable projections of sea-level rise and storminess both as individual climate drivers and under a range of integrated climate change scenarios through the end of the century. Additionally, policy drivers, modeled both as individual management decisions and as policies integrated within adaptation scenarios, captured variability in possible human response to increased hazards risk. The relative contribution of variability and uncertainty from both climate change and policy decisions was quantified using three stakeholder relevant landscape performance metrics related to flooding, erosion, and recreational beach accessibility. In general, policy decisions introduced greater variability and uncertainty to the impacts of coastal hazards than climate change uncertainty. Quantifying uncertainty across a suite of coproduced performance metrics can help determine the relative impact of management decisions on the adaptive capacity of communities under future climate scenarios.

scholarly journals Assessing storm surge hazard and impact of sea level rise in the Lesser Antilles case study of Martinique

2017 ◽  
Vol 17 (9) ◽  
pp. 1559-1571 ◽  
Author(s):  
Yann Krien ◽  
Bernard Dudon ◽  
Jean Roger ◽  
Gael Arnaud ◽  
Narcisse Zahibo
Keyword(s):  
Sea Level Rise ◽  
Sea Level ◽  
Storm Surge ◽  
Numerical Models ◽  
Lesser Antilles ◽  
Adaptation Measures ◽  
Worst Case ◽  
Mitigation And Adaptation ◽  
The Impact

Abstract. In the Lesser Antilles, coastal inundations from hurricane-induced storm surges pose a great threat to lives, properties and ecosystems. Assessing current and future storm surge hazards with sufficient spatial resolution is of primary interest to help coastal planners and decision makers develop mitigation and adaptation measures. Here, we use wave–current numerical models and statistical methods to investigate worst case scenarios and 100-year surge levels for the case study of Martinique under present climate or considering a potential sea level rise. Results confirm that the wave setup plays a major role in the Lesser Antilles, where the narrow island shelf impedes the piling-up of large amounts of wind-driven water on the shoreline during extreme events. The radiation stress gradients thus contribute significantly to the total surge – up to 100 % in some cases. The nonlinear interactions of sea level rise (SLR) with bathymetry and topography are generally found to be relatively small in Martinique but can reach several tens of centimeters in low-lying areas where the inundation extent is strongly enhanced compared to present conditions. These findings further emphasize the importance of waves for developing operational storm surge warning systems in the Lesser Antilles and encourage caution when using static methods to assess the impact of sea level rise on storm surge hazard.

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