scholarly journals Assessing the Potential Distribution of Asian Gypsy Moth in Canada: A Comparison of Two Methodological Approaches

2020 ◽  
Vol 10 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Vivek Srivastava ◽  
Verena C. Griess ◽  
Melody A. Keena
Keyword(s):  
Gypsy Moth ◽  
Potential Distribution ◽  
Climate Change Scenarios ◽  
Distribution Models ◽  
Economic Threat ◽  
Asian Gypsy Moth ◽  
Rule Set ◽  
Special Concern ◽  
European Counterpart ◽  
Cellular Automation Model

AbstractGypsy moth (Lymantria dispar L.) is one of the world’s worst hardwood defoliating invasive alien species. It is currently spreading across North America, damaging forest ecosystems and posing a significant economic threat. Two subspecies L. d. asiatica and L. d. japonica, collectively referred to as Asian gypsy moth (AGM) are of special concern as they have traits that make them better invaders than their European counterpart (e.g. flight capability of females). We assessed the potential distribution of AGM in Canada using two presence-only species distribution models, Maximum Entropy (MaxEnt) and Genetic Algorithm for Rule-set Prediction (GARP). In addition, we mapped AGM potential future distribution under two climate change scenarios (A1B and A2) while implementing dispersal constraints using the cellular automation model MigClim. MaxEnt had higher AUC, pAUC and sensitivity scores (0.82/1.40/1.00) when compared to GARP (0.70/1.26/0.9), indicating better discrimination of suitable versus unsuitable areas for AGM. The models indicated that suitable conditions for AGM were present in the provinces of British Columbia, Ontario, Quebec, Nova Scotia and New Brunswick. The human influence index was the variable found to contribute the most in predicting the distribution of AGM. These model results can be used to identify areas at risk for this pest, to inform strategic and tactical pest management decisions.

scholarly journals Endemic Juniperus Montane Species Facing Extinction Risk under Climate Change in Southwest China: Integrative Approach for Conservation Assessment and Prioritization

Biology ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 10 (1) ◽  
pp. 63
Author(s):  
Mohammed A. Dakhil ◽  
Marwa Waseem A. Halmy ◽  
Walaa A. Hassan ◽  
Ali El-Keblawy ◽  
Kaiwen Pan ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Potential Distribution ◽  
Extinction Risk ◽  
In Situ Conservation ◽  
Integrative Approach ◽  
Conservation Assessment ◽  
Distribution Models ◽  
Area Of Occupancy ◽  
Annual Range ◽  
The Impact

Climate change is an important driver of biodiversity loss and extinction of endemic montane species. In China, three endemic Juniperus spp. (Juniperuspingii var. pingii, J.tibetica, and J.komarovii) are threatened and subjected to the risk of extinction. This study aimed to predict the potential distribution of these three Juniperus species under climate change and dispersal scenarios, to identify critical drivers explaining their potential distributions, to assess the extinction risk by estimating the loss percentage in their area of occupancy (AOO), and to identify priority areas for their conservation in China. We used ensemble modeling to evaluate the impact of climate change and project AOO. Our results revealed that the projected AOOs followed a similar trend in the three Juniperus species, which predicted an entire loss of their suitable habitats under both climate and dispersal scenarios. Temperature annual range and isothermality were the most critical key variables explaining the potential distribution of these three Juniperus species; they contribute by 16–56.1% and 20.4–38.3%, respectively. Accounting for the use of different thresholds provides a balanced approach for species distribution models’ applications in conservation assessment when the goal is to assess potential climatic suitability in new geographical areas. Therefore, south Sichuan and north Yunnan could be considered important priority conservation areas for in situ conservation and search for unknown populations of these three Juniperus species.

scholarly journals Projections for Mexico’s Tropical Rainforests Considering Ecological Niche and Climate Change

Forests ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 12 (2) ◽  
pp. 119
Author(s):  
Antonio Fidel Santos-Hernández ◽  
Alejandro Ismael Monterroso-Rivas ◽  
Diódoro Granados-Sánchez ◽  
Antonio Villanueva-Morales ◽  
Malinali Santacruz-Carrillo
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Ecological Niche ◽  
Potential Distribution ◽  
Tropical Rainforest ◽  
Statistical Significance ◽  
Climate Change Scenarios ◽  
Climate Conditions ◽  
Tropical Regions ◽  
Temperature And Precipitation ◽  
Ecological Importance

The tropical rainforest is one of the lushest and most important plant communities in Mexico’s tropical regions, yet its potential distribution has not been studied in current and future climate conditions. The aim of this paper was to propose priority areas for conservation based on ecological niche and species distribution modeling of 22 species with the greatest ecological importance at the climax stage. Geographic records were correlated with bioclimatic temperature and precipitation variables using Maxent and Kuenm software for each species. The best Maxent models were chosen based on statistical significance, complexity and predictive power, and current potential distributions were obtained from these models. Future potential distributions were projected with two climate change scenarios: HADGEM2_ES and GFDL_CM3 models and RCP 8.5 W/m2 by 2075–2099. All potential distributions for each scenario were then assembled for further analysis. We found that 14 tropical rainforest species have the potential for distribution in 97.4% of the landscape currently occupied by climax vegetation (0.6% of the country). Both climate change scenarios showed a 3.5% reduction in their potential distribution and possible displacement to higher elevation regions. Areas are proposed for tropical rainforest conservation where suitable bioclimatic conditions are expected to prevail.

scholarly journals Sequencing and de novo assembly of the Asian gypsy moth transcriptome using the Illumina platform

2016 ◽  
Vol 40 (1) ◽  
pp. 160-167 ◽  
Author(s):  
Fan Xiaojun ◽  
Yang Chun ◽  
Liu Jianhong ◽  
Zhang Chang ◽  
Li Yao
Keyword(s):  
Gypsy Moth ◽  
De Novo Assembly ◽  
De Novo ◽  
Illumina Platform ◽  
Asian Gypsy Moth

scholarly journals Maxent modeling for predicting the potential distribution of Arbutus andrachne L. belonging to climate change in Turkey.

2021 ◽  
Vol 48 (2) ◽  
Author(s):  
Ayse Gul Sarikaya ◽  
◽  
Omer K. Orucu ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Global Warming ◽  
Potential Distribution ◽  
Climate Change Scenarios ◽  
Small Tree ◽  
Potential Habitat ◽  
Northern Areas ◽  
Maxent Modeling ◽  
Rcp 8.5 ◽  
Turkish Flora

Arbutus andrachne L., the strawberry tree, is an evergreen shrub or small tree in the Turkish flora and has broad uses. The wood is used for decorative purposes, packaging, and manufacturing furniture. The fruits are edible and used in treating many kinds of diseases. However, global warming might affect the abundance of this symbolic plant's distribution, especially at higher latitudes. This study was conducted to determine the expected effects of climate change on A. andrachne. For this purpose, Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) 4.5 and RCP 8.5 were used to expect climate change scenarios for 2050 and 2070, and potential distribution areas of A. andrachne were presented. The results indicated that the distribution of A. andrachne would decrease in the southern regions of Turkey. However, the spread of the species could be expanded in the western and northern areas. It is also expected that there would be potential habitat losses, which would affect the distribution of A. andrachne.

Ignoring seasonal changes in the ecological niche of non-migratory species may lead to biases in potential distribution models: lessons from bats

2018 ◽  
Vol 27 (9) ◽  
pp. 2425-2441 ◽  
Author(s):  
Sonia Smeraldo ◽  
Mirko Di Febbraro ◽  
Luciano Bosso ◽  
Carles Flaquer ◽  
David Guixé ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Seasonal Changes ◽  
Ecological Niche ◽  
Potential Distribution ◽  
Migratory Species ◽  
Distribution Models
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