A prediction of suitable habitat mapping of Pinus roxburghii sarg. using maxent modeling

Prediction of the potential geographic distribution of species is essential concerning various purposes in protection and conservation. The present study focused on predicting the distribution of Pinus roxburghii Sarg. (chir pine) in Uttarakhand Himalayas using the MaxEnt model. The model produced AUC curve with significant value of 0.882 (± 0.023). The study results showed that 426200 ha (5.91%) cover highly potential habitat area for chir pine. Whereas 833900 ha (11.56%), 1019200 ha (14.13%) and 4936000 ha (68.41%) cover good potential, moderately potential and least potential habitat areas, respectively. Based on the jacknife test, it was observed that temperature seasonality (bio4), precipitation of seasonality (bio15) and precipitation of driest month (bio14) are the significant contributors to the occurrence of chir pine in Uttarakhand Himalayas. This study exemplifies the usefulness of the prediction model of species distribution and offers a more effective way to manage chir pine forest by all means, which is beneficial for both the wildlife and human beings for future prospects.

A process-based assessment of landscape change and salmon habitat losses in the Chehalis River basin, USA

Identifying necessary stream and watershed restoration actions requires quantifying natural potential habitat conditions to diagnose habitat change and evaluate restoration potential. We used three general methods of quantifying natural potential: historical maps and survey notes, contemporary reference sites, and models. Historical information was available only for the floodplain habitat analysis. We used contemporary reference sites to estimate natural potential habitat conditions for wood abundance, riparian shade, main channel length, and side channel length. For fine sediment, temperature, and beaver ponds we relied on models. We estimated a 90% loss of potential beaver pond area, 91% loss of side-channel length, and 92% loss or degradation of floodplain marshes and ponds. Spawning habitat area change due to wood loss ranged from -23% to -68% across subbasins. Other changes in habitat quantity or quality were smaller—either in magnitude or spatial extent—including rearing habitat areas, stream temperature, and accessible stream length. Historical floodplain habitat mapping provided the highest spatial resolution and certainty in locations and amounts of floodplain habitat lost or degraded, whereas use of the contemporary reference information provided less site specificity for wood abundance and side-channel length change. The models for fine sediment levels and beaver pond areas have the lowest reach-specific certainty, whereas the model of temperature change has higher certainty because it is based on a detailed riparian inventory. Despite uncertainties at the reach level, confidence in subbasin-level estimates of habitat change is moderate to high because accuracy increases as data are aggregated over multiple reaches. Our results show that the largest habitat losses were floodplain and beaver pond habitats, but use of these habitat change results in salmon life-cycle models can illustrate how the potential benefits of alternative habitat restoration actions varies among species with differing habitat preferences.

Potential Habitat and Carrying Capacity of Endangered San Joaquin Kit Foxes in an Urban Environment: Implications for Conservation and Recovery

The San Joaquin kit fox (Vulpes macrotis mutica; SJKF) is federally endangered due to profound habitat loss. A population of SJKF occurs in the urban environment in the city of Bakersfield, California, and may be important for SJKF conservation. We conducted a systematic survey using automated cameras stations and occupancy analysis to identify suitable habitat for SJKF in Bakersfield and to estimate a conceptual carrying capacity in the urban environment. We identified high, medium, and low suitability habitat totaling 121 km2, 196 km2, and 40 km2, respectively. Based on a mean home range size of 0.78 km2 and an assumption of two adults in high suitability home ranges and one adult in medium suitability ranges, we estimated the adult carrying capacity in Bakersfield to be 561 foxes. This estimate seems plausible as the number of adult SJKF in Bakersfield was estimated to be 381 in 2015, and the number of foxes already had been reduced by a sarcoptic mange epidemic that began two years earlier. A carrying capacity of 561 adults would increase the estimated range-wide carrying capacity by as much as 38%. Density estimates derived for the urban SJKF population based on the carrying capacity (1.57/km2) and home range size (2.56/km2) were higher than estimates for foxes in natural habitats. The urban SJKF population in Bakersfield is substantial and therefore could contribute significantly to conservation and recovery efforts for SJKF. Given our results, a potential conservation strategy may be to encourage or even establish additional urban SJKF populations.

The potential habitat of desert locusts is contracting: predictions under climate change scenarios

Desert locusts are notorious for their widespread distribution and strong destructive power. Their influence extends from the vast arid and semiarid regions of western Africa to northwestern India. Large-scale locust outbreaks can have devastating consequences for food security, and their social impact may be long-lasting. Climate change has increased the uncertainty of desert locust outbreaks, and predicting suitable habitats for this species under climate change scenarios will help humans deal with the potential threat of locust outbreaks. By comprehensively considering climate, soil, and terrain variables, the maximum entropy (MaxEnt) model was used to predict the potential habitats of solitary desert locusts in the 2050s and 2070s under the four shared socioeconomic pathways (SSP126, SSP245, SSP370, and SSP585) in the CMIP6 model. The modeling results show that the average area under the curve (AUC) and true skill statistic (TSS) reached 0.908 ± 0.002 and 0.701, respectively, indicating that the MaxEnt model performed extremely well and provided outstanding prediction results. The prediction results indicate that climate change will have an impact on the distribution of the potential habitat of solitary desert locusts. With the increase in radiative forcing overtime, the suitable areas for desert locusts will continue to contract, especially in the 2070s under the SSP585 scenario, and the moderately and highly suitable areas will decrease by 0.88 × 106 km2 and 1.55 × 106 km2, respectively. Although the potentially suitable area for desert locusts is contracting, the future threat posed by the desert locust to agricultural production and food security cannot be underestimated, given the combination of maintained breeding areas, frequent extreme weather events, pressure from population growth, and volatile sociopolitical environments. In conclusion, methods such as monitoring and early warning, financial support, regional cooperation, and scientific prevention and control of desert locust plagues should be further implemented.

Predicting the Habitat Suitability of Melaleuca cajuputi Based on the MaxEnt Species Distribution Model

Gelam tree or Melaleuca cajuputi (M. cajuputi) is an important species for the local economy as well as coastal ecosystem protection in Terengganu, Malaysia. This study aimed at producing a current habitat suitability map and predicting future potential habitat distribution for M. cajuputi in Terengganu based on Species distribution modeling (SDM) using the Maximum Entropy principle. Our modeling results show that for the current potential distribution of M. cajuputi species, only 10.82% (1346.5 km2) of Terengganu area is suitable habitat, which 0.96% of the areas are under high, 2.44% moderate and 7.42% poor habitat suitability. The model prediction for future projection shows that the habitat suitability for M. cajuputi would decrease significantly in the year 2050 under RCP 4.5 where the largest contraction from suitable to unsuitable habitat area is about 442.1 km2 and under RCP 2.6 is the highest expansion from unsuitable to suitable habitat area (267.5 km2). From the future habitat suitability projection, we found that the habitat suitability in Marang would degrade significantly under all climate scenarios, while in Setiu the habitat suitability for M. cajuputi remains stable throughout the climate change scenarios. The modeling prediction shows a significant influence on the soil properties, temperature, and precipitation during monsoon months. These results could benefit conservationist and policymakers for decision making. The present model could also give a perception into potential habitat suitability of M. cajuputi in the future and to improve our understanding of the species’ response under the changing climate.

Land Use Land Cover Changes and its Implication on the conservation of Re-introduced Kihansi Spay Toads (Nectophrynoides asperginis) in Kihansi Gorge-Tanzania

Background Land use land cover change (LULCC) is a global threat to biodiversity conservation. Endemic species such as Kihansi spray toads (KST) are prone to extinction due to LULCC. This study assessed the LULCC of the Kihansi catchment (KC), a potential habitat for the KST and adjacent areas. Remote sensing (RS), geographical information system (GIS) and 156 questionnaires administered to three surrounding villages namely: Mgugwe, Udagaji and Ukami were used to assess the LULCC forms in the study area. Landsat imagery and ground truthing, were used to classify and monitor LULCC for 25 years from 1995 to 2020. Results Settlements and agricultural land increased by 26.23% and 3.7% respectively. On the other hand, forested land decreased by a rate of 10-20% per year. Across respondents a significant increase (p = 0.041) of the population was reported which contributed to settlement expansion. LULC of KC and adjacent areas were observed to change over the years that anticipate threatening the reintroduced KST and its habitat. Conclusions This study provides baseline information for land use planning in KC and adjacent areas that consider the sustainable conservation of re-introduced KST while improving the livelihood of the adjacent local communities.

Feeding ground indications are based on species, seagrass density and existence of Dugong dugon in Hiri Island Sea, North Maluku, Indonesia

Seagrass ecosystems are located between mangrove ecosystems and coral reefs. Seagrass ecosystems are habitats and foraging area for many marine organisms. Eco-biological cycles in seagrass ecosystems are important for maintaining populations of many organisms. Seagrass at Hiri Island is distributed horizontally along the coast. This island is also a location where Dugong dugon is found North Maluku. Dugong dugon is a vurneable species that has been included in the IUCN and Appendix I Cites. This study aimed to identify species, density of seagrass and existence of Dugong dugong. The survey method used quadratic transect method to collect seagrass data. The Results found 6 species of seagrass at Hiri Island. Five species of those seagrass (Cymodocea serrulata, Cymodecea rotundata, Halodule uninervis, Halodule pinifolia, Halophila spinulosa) are known as food of Dugong dugon. The highest species density was shown by Halodule uninervis. The presence of Dugong dugon and its feeding trail was found during field survey. Information on seagrass species and Dugong dugon sightings location can be used for endangered species conservation policies. Management and conservation efforts need to be done to maintain seagrass ecosystem and Dugong dugon potential habitat at Hiri Island.

Patch dynamics in the Javan Hawk-Eagle (Nisaetus bartelsi) habitat of East Java

Javan Hawk-Eagle (JHE, Nisaetus bartelsi) is an endemic species in Java Island and an important biological indicator of ecosystem health. The government has issued regulations to protect this species and increase the population by 10% from 2015 until 2019. East Java has the largest JHE potential habitat in Java Island based on a previous study using satellite images of 2002. Therefore, the current habitat distribution of JHE’s is essential for getting knowledge about patch dynamics in JHE’s habitat. This study’s objective was to analyze patch dynamics of JHE’s habitat from 2002 until 2015 and validate habitat distribution. Previously predicted probability map (2002) of JHE’s were updated using Landsat 8 satellite images of 2015 and was validated through ground-truth checked. Results showed that the distribution of JHE’s habitat after validation is 28 patches, which is covered 4766.26 km2. The dynamics that occur in the JHE’s patch are patch lost(1 patch), patch area decreased (5 patches), patch area increased (13 patches), new patch (4 patches), and merged patch. After validation, there are six newly identified patches, and one patch area increased. The total area increased by 2156.14 km2 or 82.61% of the total area occupied by JHE’s in 2002. About 39.89% of total habitat patches were located inside the protected area. This study recommends continuing monitoring activities on habitat patches, including potential habitat patches in lowland areas, and proposing conservation activities based on habitat patch dynamics that occurred from 2002 to 2015.

Predicting the distribution of vulnerable fishing cat Prionailurus viverrinus in Nepal

The fishing cat Prionailurus viverrinus is a wetland specialist endemic to South and Southeast Asia. Nepal represents the northern limit of its biogeographic range, but comprehensive information on fishing cat distribution in Nepal is lacking. We compiled fishing cat occurrence records (n=154) from Nepal, available in published literature and unpublished data (2009 – 2020), to assess their distribution. Bioclimatic and environmental variables associated with their occurrence were used to predict the potential fishing cat range using MaxEnt modeling. Fishing cat distribution was influenced by elevation, precipitation of the warmest quarter (18_bio), precipitation of the driest month (14_bio) and land cover. Wetlands and forest cover were the important predictors of fishing cat distribution. The model predicted an area of 4.4% (6,679 km2) of Nepal as potential habitat for the fishing cat. About two third of the predicted potentially suitable habitat lies outside protected areas, however a large part of the highly suitable habitat (67%) falls within protected areas. The predicted habitat map serves as a reference for future investigation into fishing cat distribution as well as formulating and implementing effective conservation programs for fishing cats in Nepal. Fishing cat conservation initiatives should include habitats both inside and outside the protected areas to ensure long-term survival. We recommend conservation of wetland sites, surveys of fishing cats in the identified potential habitats, and study of their genetic connectivity and population status.