scholarly journals Maxent modeling for predicting the potential distribution of Arbutus andrachne L. belonging to climate change in Turkey.

2021 ◽  
Vol 48 (2) ◽  
Author(s):  
Ayse Gul Sarikaya ◽  
◽  
Omer K. Orucu ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Global Warming ◽  
Potential Distribution ◽  
Climate Change Scenarios ◽  
Small Tree ◽  
Potential Habitat ◽  
Northern Areas ◽  
Maxent Modeling ◽  
Rcp 8.5 ◽  
Turkish Flora

Arbutus andrachne L., the strawberry tree, is an evergreen shrub or small tree in the Turkish flora and has broad uses. The wood is used for decorative purposes, packaging, and manufacturing furniture. The fruits are edible and used in treating many kinds of diseases. However, global warming might affect the abundance of this symbolic plant's distribution, especially at higher latitudes. This study was conducted to determine the expected effects of climate change on A. andrachne. For this purpose, Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) 4.5 and RCP 8.5 were used to expect climate change scenarios for 2050 and 2070, and potential distribution areas of A. andrachne were presented. The results indicated that the distribution of A. andrachne would decrease in the southern regions of Turkey. However, the spread of the species could be expanded in the western and northern areas. It is also expected that there would be potential habitat losses, which would affect the distribution of A. andrachne.

scholarly journals Modeling the Potential Global Distribution of Phenacoccus madeirensis Green under Various Climate Change Scenarios

Forests ◽  
2019 ◽  
Vol 10 (9) ◽  
pp. 773 ◽  
Author(s):  
Jiufeng Wei ◽  
Xiaozhou Li ◽  
Yunyun Lu ◽  
Ling Zhao ◽  
Hufang Zhang ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Potential Distribution ◽  
Climatic Conditions ◽  
Invasive Pest ◽  
Distribution Model ◽  
Climate Change Scenarios ◽  
Rcp 8.5 ◽  
Future Potential ◽  
Phenacoccus Madeirensis ◽  
Control And Management

The Madeira mealybug, Phenacoccus madeirensis Green, is a serious invasive pest that does significant damage to more than 120 genera of host plants from 51 families in more than 81 countries. However, the potential distribution range of this pest is unclear, which could hamper control and eradication efforts. In the current study, MaxEnt models were developed to forecast the current and future distribution of the Madeira mealybug around the world. Moreover, the future potential distribution of this invasive species was projected for the 2050s and 2070s under three different climate change scenarios (HADGEM2-AO, GFDL-CM3, and MIROC5) and two representative concentration pathways (RCP-2.6 and RCP-8.5). The final model indicates that the Madeira mealybug has a highly suitable range for the continents of Asia, Europe, and Africa, as well as South America and North America, where this species has already been recorded. Potential expansions or reductions in distribution were also simulated under different future climatic conditions. Our study also suggested that the mean temperature of the driest quarter (Bio9) was the most important factor and explained 46.9% of the distribution model. The distribution model from the current and future predictions can enhance the strategic planning of agricultural and forestry organization by identifying regions that will need to develop integrated pest management programs to manage Madeira mealybug, especially for some highly suitable areas, such as South Asia and Europe. Moreover, the results of this research will help governments to optimize investment in the control and management of the Madeira mealybug by identifying regions that are or will become suitable for infestations.

scholarly journals Predictive Modelling of Current and Future Potential Distribution of the Spectacled Bear (Tremarctos ornatus) in Amazonas, Northeast Peru

Animals ◽  
2020 ◽  
Vol 10 (10) ◽  
pp. 1816
Author(s):  
Gerson Meza Mori ◽  
Elgar Barboza Castillo ◽  
Cristóbal Torres Guzmán ◽  
Dany A. Cotrina Sánchez ◽  
Betty K. Guzman Valqui ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Potential Distribution ◽  
Predictive Modelling ◽  
High Potential ◽  
Climate Change Scenarios ◽  
Potential Habitat ◽  
Total Potential ◽  
Protected Natural Areas ◽  
Future Potential ◽  
Sustainable Conservation

The spectacled, or Andean, bear (Tremarctos ornatus) is classified as vulnerable by the IUCN due to climate change and human-induced habitat fragmentation. There is an urgent need for the conservation of spectacled bear at real time. However, the lack of knowledge about the distribution of this species is considered as one of the major limitations for decision-making and sustainable conservation. In this study, 92 geo-referenced records of the spectacled bear, 12 environmental variables and the MaxEnt entropy modelling have been used for predictive modelling for the current and future (2050 and 2070) potential distribution of the spectacled bear in Amazonas, northeastern Peru. The areas of “high”, “moderate” and “low” potential habitat under current conditions cover 1.99% (836.22 km2), 14.46% (6081.88 km2) and 20.73% (8718.98 km2) of the Amazon, respectively. “High” potential habitat will increase under all climate change scenarios, while “moderate” and “low” potential habitat, as well as total habitat, will decrease over the time. The “moderate”, “low” and total potential habitat are distributed mainly in Yunga montane forest, combined grasslands/rangelands and secondary vegetation and Yunga altimontane (rain) forest, while “high” potential habitat is also concentrated in the Jalca. The overall outcome showed that the most of the important habitats of the spectacled bear are not part of the protected natural areas of Amazonas, under current as well as under future scenarios.

scholarly journals Distribution Change of Invasive American Bullfrogs (Lithobates catesbeianus) by Future Climate Threaten Endangered Suweon Treefrog (Hyla suweonensis) in South Korea

Animals ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 11 (10) ◽  
pp. 2865
Author(s):  
Kyo Soung Koo ◽  
Minjee Choe
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
South Korea ◽  
Native Species ◽  
Potential Distribution ◽  
Current Level ◽  
Climate Change Scenarios ◽  
Direct Impact ◽  
Lithobates Catesbeianus ◽  
American Bullfrog ◽  
Rcp 8.5

The American Bullfrog (Lithobates catesbeianus) has been imported into South Korea in earnest for food since the 1970s and introduced into nature due to release and escape. Accordingly, the influx and spread of American Bullfrogs are expected to have a direct impact on native species, but few related studies have been conducted on this. We predicted changes in the potential distribution and future distribution based on climate change scenarios to analyze how those changes affect critically endangered Suwon treefrogs. Suwon treefrog sites (63.9%, 78/122) overlapped with the distribution of Bullfrogs. According to the prediction of the future distribution of Bullfrogs, the overlapping of American Bullfrogs and Suwon treefrog will remain similar to the current level in the Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) 4.5 scenario. On the other hand, in the RCP 8.5 scenario, the number of overlapping sites will increase to 72.1% (88/122) due to the spreading of the American Bullfrogs. The results show that climate change directly affects the distribution expansion of the American Bullfrogs but also indirectly can lead to an increased threat to Suwon treefrogs. In conclusion, our results strongly suggest why climate change should be actively addressed in terms of the spread of invasive species and the protection of endangered species.

scholarly journals MaxEnt Modeling for Predicting the Current and Future Potential Geographical Distribution of Quercus libani Olivier

2020 ◽  
Vol 12 (7) ◽  
pp. 2671 ◽  
Author(s):  
H. Oğuz Çoban ◽  
Ömer K. Örücü ◽  
E. Seda Arslan
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Geographical Distribution ◽  
Potential Distribution ◽  
Climate Change Scenarios ◽  
Change Analysis ◽  
Climate System Model ◽  
Study Results ◽  
Bioclimatic Variables ◽  
Rcp 8.5 ◽  
Future Potential

The purpose of the study was to model the current and potential future distribution of Quercus libani Olivier (Lebanon Oak), a tree species in Turkey, and to predict the changes in its geographical distribution under different climate change scenarios. In this study, 19 bioclimatic variables at a spatial resolution of 30 arc seconds (~1 km2) were used, collected from the WorldClim database. The bioclimatic data with high correlation according to 31 sets of presence data on the species were reduced with principal component analysis (PCA), and the current and potential distribution were identified using MaxEnt 3.4.1 software. In order to predict how the distribution of the species will be affected by climate change, its potential geographical distribution by 2050 and 2070 was modeled under the Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP) RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5 scenarios of the species using the Community Climate System Model (CCSM, version 4), which is a climate change model based on the report of the fifth Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). Change analysis was performed to determine the spatial differences between its current and future distribution areas. The study results showed that the suitable areas for the current distribution of Quercus libani Olivier cover 72,819 km2. Depending on the CCSM4 climate model, the suitable area will decline to 67,580 km2 by 2070, according to the RCP 4.5 scenario, or 63,390 km2 in the RCP 8.5 scenario. This may lead to a reduction in the future population of this species. The change analysis showed that suitable and highly suitable areas will decrease under global climate change scenarios (RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5) for both current and future potential distribution areas. In this context, our study results indicate that for the management of this species, protective environmental measures should be taken, and climate change models need to be considered in land use and forest management planning.

scholarly journals Water Temperature and Hydrological Modelling in the Context of Environmental Flows and Future Climate Change: Case Study of the Wilmot River (Canada)

Water ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 13 (15) ◽  
pp. 2101
Author(s):  
Christian Charron ◽  
André St-Hilaire ◽  
Taha B.M.J. Ouarda ◽  
Michael R. van den Heuvel
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Water Temperature ◽  
Environmental Flows ◽  
Low Flow ◽  
Future Climate Change ◽  
Climate Change Scenarios ◽  
Water Abstraction ◽  
Surface Water Flow ◽  
Modelling Studies ◽  
Rcp 8.5

Simulation of surface water flow and temperature under a non-stationary, anthropogenically impacted climate is critical for water resource decision makers, especially in the context of environmental flow determination. Two climate change scenarios were employed to predict streamflow and temperature: RCP 8.5, the most pessimistic with regards to climate change, and RCP 4.5, a more optimistic scenario where greenhouse gas emissions peak in 2040. Two periods, 2018–2050 and 2051–2100, were also evaluated. In Canada, a number of modelling studies have shown that many regions will likely be faced with higher winter flow and lower summer flows. The CEQUEAU hydrological and water temperature model was calibrated and validated for the Wilmot River, Canada, using historic data for flow and temperature. Total annual precipitation in the region was found to remain stable under RCP 4.5 and increase over time under RCP 8.5. Median stream flow was expected to increase over present levels in the low flow months of August and September. However, increased climate variability led to higher numbers of periodic extreme low flow events and little change to the frequency of extreme high flow events. The effective increase in water temperature was four-fold greater in winter with an approximate mean difference of 4 °C, while the change was only 1 °C in summer. Overall implications for native coldwater fishes and water abstraction are not severe, except for the potential for more variability, and hence periodic extreme low flow/high temperature events.

scholarly journals Projections for Mexico’s Tropical Rainforests Considering Ecological Niche and Climate Change

Forests ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 12 (2) ◽  
pp. 119
Author(s):  
Antonio Fidel Santos-Hernández ◽  
Alejandro Ismael Monterroso-Rivas ◽  
Diódoro Granados-Sánchez ◽  
Antonio Villanueva-Morales ◽  
Malinali Santacruz-Carrillo
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Ecological Niche ◽  
Potential Distribution ◽  
Tropical Rainforest ◽  
Statistical Significance ◽  
Climate Change Scenarios ◽  
Climate Conditions ◽  
Tropical Regions ◽  
Temperature And Precipitation ◽  
Ecological Importance

The tropical rainforest is one of the lushest and most important plant communities in Mexico’s tropical regions, yet its potential distribution has not been studied in current and future climate conditions. The aim of this paper was to propose priority areas for conservation based on ecological niche and species distribution modeling of 22 species with the greatest ecological importance at the climax stage. Geographic records were correlated with bioclimatic temperature and precipitation variables using Maxent and Kuenm software for each species. The best Maxent models were chosen based on statistical significance, complexity and predictive power, and current potential distributions were obtained from these models. Future potential distributions were projected with two climate change scenarios: HADGEM2_ES and GFDL_CM3 models and RCP 8.5 W/m2 by 2075–2099. All potential distributions for each scenario were then assembled for further analysis. We found that 14 tropical rainforest species have the potential for distribution in 97.4% of the landscape currently occupied by climax vegetation (0.6% of the country). Both climate change scenarios showed a 3.5% reduction in their potential distribution and possible displacement to higher elevation regions. Areas are proposed for tropical rainforest conservation where suitable bioclimatic conditions are expected to prevail.

scholarly journals Extreme Wildfire occurrence in response to Global Change type Droughts in the Northern Mediterranean

2017 ◽  
Author(s):  
Julien Ruffault ◽  
Thomas Curt ◽  
Nicolas K. Martin St-Paul ◽  
Vincent Moron ◽  
Ricardo M. Trigo
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Global Warming ◽  
Fire Suppression ◽  
Climate Change Scenarios ◽  
Fire Weather ◽  
Specific Interactions ◽  
Wildfire Occurrence ◽  
Drought Conditions ◽  
In Fire ◽  
Mediterranean France

Abstract. Increasing drought conditions under global warming are expected to alter the frequency and distribution of large, high intensity wildfires. Yet, little is known regarding how it will affect fire weather and translate into wildfire behaviour. Here, we analysed the climatology of extreme wildfires that occurred during the exceptionally dry summers of 2003 and 2016 in Mediterranean France. We identified two distinct shifts in fire climatology towards fire weather spaces that had not been explored before, and which result from specific interactions between the types of drought and the types of fire. In 2016, a long-lasting press drought intensified wind-driven fires. In 2003, a hot drought combining a heatwave with a press drought intensified heat-driven fires. Our findings highlight that increasing drought conditions projected by climate change scenarios might affect the dryness of fuel compartments and create several new generations of wildfire overwhelming fire suppression capacities.

scholarly journals Ensemble Projections of Regional Climatic Changes over Ontario, Canada

2015 ◽  
Vol 28 (18) ◽  
pp. 7327-7346 ◽  
Author(s):  
Xiuquan Wang ◽  
Guohe Huang ◽  
Jinliang Liu ◽  
Zhong Li ◽  
Shan Zhao
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Global Warming ◽  
Regional Climate ◽  
Climatic Changes ◽  
Climate Projections ◽  
Climate Change Scenarios ◽  
Local Climate ◽  
Ensemble Simulations ◽  
Extreme Precipitation Events ◽  
Data Portal

Abstract In this study, high-resolution climate projections over Ontario, Canada, are developed through an ensemble modeling approach to provide reliable and ready-to-use climate scenarios for assessing plausible effects of future climatic changes at local scales. The Providing Regional Climates for Impacts Studies (PRECIS) regional modeling system is adopted to conduct ensemble simulations in a continuous run from 1950 to 2099, driven by the boundary conditions from a HadCM3-based perturbed physics ensemble. Simulations of temperature and precipitation for the baseline period are first compared to the observed values to validate the performance of the ensemble in capturing the current climatology over Ontario. Future projections for the 2030s, 2050s, and 2080s are then analyzed to help understand plausible changes in its local climate in response to global warming. The analysis indicates that there is likely to be an obvious warming trend with time over the entire province. The increase in average temperature is likely to be varying within [2.6, 2.7]°C in the 2030s, [4.0, 4.7]°C in the 2050s, and [5.9, 7.4]°C in the 2080s. Likewise, the annual total precipitation is projected to increase by [4.5, 7.1]% in the 2030s, [4.6, 10.2]% in the 2050s, and [3.2, 17.5]% in the 2080s. Furthermore, projections of rainfall intensity–duration–frequency (IDF) curves are developed to help understand the effects of global warming on extreme precipitation events. The results suggest that there is likely to be an overall increase in the intensity of rainfall storms. Finally, a data portal named Ontario Climate Change Data Portal (CCDP) is developed to ensure decision-makers and impact researchers have easy and intuitive access to the refined regional climate change scenarios.

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