scholarly journals The potential land requirements and related land use change emissions of solar energy

2021 ◽  
Vol 11 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Dirk-Jan van de Ven ◽  
Iñigo Capellan-Peréz ◽  
Iñaki Arto ◽  
Ignacio Cazcarro ◽  
Carlos de Castro ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Land Use ◽  
Solar Energy ◽  
Land Use Change ◽  
Management Practices ◽  
Integrated Assessment Model ◽  
Assessment Model ◽  
Electricity Mix ◽  
Novel Method ◽  
Region Scale ◽  
Carbon Losses

AbstractAlthough the transition to renewable energies will intensify the global competition for land, the potential impacts driven by solar energy remain unexplored. In this work, the potential solar land requirements and related land use change emissions are computed for the EU, India, Japan and South Korea. A novel method is developed within an integrated assessment model which links socioeconomic, energy, land and climate systems. At 25–80% penetration in the electricity mix of those regions by 2050, we find that solar energy may occupy 0.5–5% of total land. The resulting land cover changes, including indirect effects, will likely cause a net release of carbon ranging from 0 to 50 gCO2/kWh, depending on the region, scale of expansion, solar technology efficiency and land management practices in solar parks. Hence, a coordinated planning and regulation of new solar energy infrastructures should be enforced to avoid a significant increase in their life cycle emissions through terrestrial carbon losses.

scholarly journals Harmonization of Global Land-Use Change and Management for the Period 850–2100 (LUH2) for CMIP6

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
George C. Hurtt ◽  
Louise Chini ◽  
Ritvik Sahajpal ◽  
Steve Frolking ◽  
Benjamin L. Bodirsky ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Land Use ◽  
Management Practices ◽  
Initial Conditions ◽  
Coupled Model ◽  
Climate System ◽  
Integrated Assessment Model ◽  
Assessment Model ◽  
Combined Effects ◽  
Land Use Patterns ◽  
The Future

Abstract. Human land-use activities have resulted in large changes to the biogeochemical and biophysical properties of the Earth surface, with consequences for climate and other ecosystem services. In the future, land-use activities are likely to expand and/or intensify further to meet growing demands for food, fiber, and energy. As part of the World Climate Research Program Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP6), the international community is developing the next generation of advanced Earth System Models (ESMs) to estimate the combined effects of human activities (e.g. land use and fossil fuel emissions) on the carbon-climate system. A new set of historical data based on the History of the Global Environment database (HYDE), and multiple alternative scenarios of the future (2015–2100) from Integrated Assessment Model (IAM) teams, are required as input for these models. Here we present results from the Land-use Harmonization 2 (LUH2) project, with the goal to smoothly connect updated historical reconstructions of land-use with new future projections in the format required for ESMs. The harmonization strategy estimates the fractional land-use patterns, underlying land-use transitions, key agricultural management information, and resulting secondary lands annually, while minimizing the differences between the end of the historical reconstruction and IAM initial conditions and preserving changes depicted by the IAMs in the future. The new approach builds off a similar effort from CMIP5, and is now provided at higher resolution (0.25 × 0.25 degree), over a longer time domain (850–2100, with extensions to 2300), with more detail (including multiple crop and pasture types and associated management practices), using more input datasets (including Landsat remote sensing data), updated algorithms (wood harvest and shifting cultivation), and is assessed via a new diagnostic package. The new LUH2 products contain > 50 times the information content of the datasets used in CMIP5, and are designed to enable new and improved estimates of the combined effects of land-use on the global carbon-climate system.

scholarly journals On linking an Earth system model to the equilibrium carbon representation of an economically optimizing land use model

2014 ◽  
Vol 7 (6) ◽  
pp. 2545-2555 ◽  
Author(s):  
B. Bond-Lamberty ◽  
K. Calvin ◽  
A. D. Jones ◽  
J. Mao ◽  
P. Patel ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Land Use ◽  
Land Use Change ◽  
Carbon Cycle ◽  
Integrated Assessment ◽  
Integrated Assessment Model ◽  
Assessment Model ◽  
Earth System ◽  
Climate Effects ◽  
Community Land Model ◽  
Proxy Variables

Abstract. Human activities are significantly altering biogeochemical cycles at the global scale, and the scope of these activities will change with both future climate and socioeconomic decisions. This poses a significant challenge for Earth system models (ESMs), which can incorporate land use change as prescribed inputs but do not actively simulate the policy or economic forces that drive land use change. One option to address this problem is to couple an ESM with an economically oriented integrated assessment model, but this is challenging because of the radically different goals and underpinnings of each type of model. This study describes the development and testing of a coupling between the terrestrial carbon cycle of an ESM (CESM) and an integrated assessment (GCAM) model, focusing on how CESM climate effects on the carbon cycle could be shared with GCAM. We examine the best proxy variables to share between the models, and we quantify how carbon flux changes driven by climate, CO2 fertilization, and land use changes (e.g., deforestation) can be distinguished from each other by GCAM. The net primary production and heterotrophic respiration outputs of the Community Land Model (CLM), the land component of CESM, were found to be the most robust proxy variables by which to recalculate GCAM's assumptions of equilibrium ecosystem steady-state carbon. Carbon cycle effects of land use change are spatially limited relative to climate effects, and thus we were able to distinguish these effects successfully in the model coupling, passing only the latter to GCAM. This paper does not present results of a fully coupled simulation but shows, using a series of offline CLM simulations and an additional idealized Monte Carlo simulation, that our CESM–GCAM proxy variables reflect the phenomena that we intend and do not contain erroneous signals due to land use change. By allowing climate effects from a full ESM to dynamically modulate the economic and policy decisions of an integrated assessment model, this work will help link these models in a robust and flexible framework capable of examining two-way interactions between human and Earth system processes.

scholarly journals Carbon density and anthropogenic land-use influences on net land-use change emissions

2013 ◽  
Vol 10 (10) ◽  
pp. 6323-6337 ◽  
Author(s):  
S. J. Smith ◽  
A. Rothwell
Keyword(s):  
Land Use ◽  
Land Use Change ◽  
Secondary Forest ◽  
Land Use Changes ◽  
Forest Harvesting ◽  
Integrated Assessment Model ◽  
Assessment Model ◽  
Carbon Cycle Model ◽  
Land Use Scenario ◽  
The Impact

Abstract. We examine historical and future land-use emissions using a simple mechanistic carbon-cycle model with regional and ecosystem specific parameterizations. We use the latest gridded data for historical and future land-use changes, which includes estimates for the impact of forest harvesting and secondary forest regrowth. Our central estimate of net terrestrial land-use change emissions, exclusive of climate–carbon feedbacks, is 250 GtC over the last 300 yr. This estimate is most sensitive to assumptions for preindustrial forest and soil carbon densities. We also find that land-use change emissions estimates are sensitive to the treatment of crop and pasture lands. These sensitivities also translate into differences in future terrestrial uptake in the RCP (representative concentration pathway) 4.5 land-use scenario. The estimate of future uptake obtained here is smaller than the native values from the GCAM (Global Change Assessment Model) integrated assessment model result due to lower net reforestation in the RCP4.5 gridded land-use data product.

scholarly journals Bioenergy-induced land-use change emissions with sectorally fragmented policies

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Leon Merfort ◽  
Nico Bauer ◽  
Florian Humpenöder ◽  
David Klein ◽  
Jessica Strefler ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Land Use ◽  
Land Use Change ◽  
Co2 Emissions ◽  
Emission Factor ◽  
Integrated Assessment Model ◽  
Assessment Model ◽  
Policy Framework ◽  
Energy Unit ◽  
Emission Regulations ◽  
The Impact

Abstract We assess the impact of different land-use emission policies within a broader climate policy framework on bioenergy production and associated land-use carbon emissions. We use the global Integrated Assessment Model REMIND-MAgPIE integrating the energy and land-use sectors and derive alternative climate change mitigation scenarios over the 21st century. If CO2 emissions are regulated consistently across sectors, land-use change emissions of biofuels are limited to 12 kgCO2/GJ. Without land-use emission regulations applied, bioenergy-induced emissions increase substantially and the emission factor per energy unit raises to levels slightly below diesel combustion (64 kg CO2/GJ). Pricing these emissions on the level of bioenergy consumption diminishes bioenergy deployment and the associated CO2 emissions, while failing to reduce the average emission factor. Despite effective reduction of land-use emissions, undifferentiated penalization of bioenergy use substantially increases mitigation costs. If supply side policies comprehensively regulate direct and indirect emissions, bioenergy can be produced much more sustainably.

scholarly journals Carbon density and anthropogenic land use influences on net land-use change emissions

2013 ◽  
Vol 10 (3) ◽  
pp. 4157-4191
Author(s):  
S. J. Smith ◽  
A. Rothwell
Keyword(s):  
Land Use ◽  
Land Use Change ◽  
Integrated Assessment Model ◽  
Assessment Model ◽  
Climate Feedbacks ◽  
Carbon Density ◽  
Cycle Model ◽  
Carbon Cycle Model ◽  
Land Use Scenario ◽  
Anthropogenic Land Use

Abstract. We examine historical and future land-use emissions using a simple mechanistic carbon-cycle model with regional and ecosystem specific parameterizations. Our central estimate of net terrestrial land-use change emissions, exclusive of climate feedbacks, is 250 Gt C over the last three hundred years. This estimate is most sensitive to assumptions for pre-industrial forest and soil carbon densities. We also find that estimates are sensitive to the treatment of crop and pasture lands. These sensitivities also translate into differences in future terrestrial uptake in the RCP4.5 land-use scenario. This estimate of future uptake is lower than the native values from the GCAM integrated assessment model result due to lower net reforestation in the RCP4.5 gridded land-use data product.

scholarly journals Harmonization of global land use change and management for the period 850–2100 (LUH2) for CMIP6

2020 ◽  
Vol 13 (11) ◽  
pp. 5425-5464 ◽  
Author(s):  
George C. Hurtt ◽  
Louise Chini ◽  
Ritvik Sahajpal ◽  
Steve Frolking ◽  
Benjamin L. Bodirsky ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Land Use ◽  
Management Practices ◽  
Initial Conditions ◽  
Climate System ◽  
Integrated Assessment Model ◽  
Assessment Model ◽  
Combined Effects ◽  
Land Use Patterns ◽  
Use Patterns ◽  
The Future

Abstract. Human land use activities have resulted in large changes to the biogeochemical and biophysical properties of the Earth's surface, with consequences for climate and other ecosystem services. In the future, land use activities are likely to expand and/or intensify further to meet growing demands for food, fiber, and energy. As part of the World Climate Research Program Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP6), the international community has developed the next generation of advanced Earth system models (ESMs) to estimate the combined effects of human activities (e.g., land use and fossil fuel emissions) on the carbon–climate system. A new set of historical data based on the History of the Global Environment database (HYDE), and multiple alternative scenarios of the future (2015–2100) from Integrated Assessment Model (IAM) teams, is required as input for these models. With most ESM simulations for CMIP6 now completed, it is important to document the land use patterns used by those simulations. Here we present results from the Land-Use Harmonization 2 (LUH2) project, which smoothly connects updated historical reconstructions of land use with eight new future projections in the format required for ESMs. The harmonization strategy estimates the fractional land use patterns, underlying land use transitions, key agricultural management information, and resulting secondary lands annually, while minimizing the differences between the end of the historical reconstruction and IAM initial conditions and preserving changes depicted by the IAMs in the future. The new approach builds on a similar effort from CMIP5 and is now provided at higher resolution (0.25∘×0.25∘) over a longer time domain (850–2100, with extensions to 2300) with more detail (including multiple crop and pasture types and associated management practices) using more input datasets (including Landsat remote sensing data) and updated algorithms (wood harvest and shifting cultivation); it is assessed via a new diagnostic package. The new LUH2 products contain > 50 times the information content of the datasets used in CMIP5 and are designed to enable new and improved estimates of the combined effects of land use on the global carbon–climate system.

Agriculture in the Boreal Forest: Understanding the Impact of Land Use Change on Soil Carbon for Developing Sustainable Community Food Systems 

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
David Bysouth ◽  
Merritt Turetsky ◽  
Andrew Spring
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Land Use ◽  
Land Use Change ◽  
Boreal Forest ◽  
Soil Carbon ◽  
Food Systems ◽  
Agricultural Land ◽  
Carbon Stocks ◽  
Soil Carbon Stocks ◽  
Carbon Losses

<p>Climate change is causing rapid warming at northern high latitudes and disproportionately affecting ecosystem services that northern communities rely upon. In Canada’s Northwest Territories (NWT), climate change is impacting the access and availability of traditional foods that are critical for community health and well-being. With climate change potentially expanding the envelope of suitable agricultural land northward, many communities in the NWT are evaluating including agriculture in their food systems. However, the conversion of boreal forest to agriculture may degrade the carbon rich soils that characterize the region, resulting in large carbon losses to the atmosphere and the depletion of existing ecosystem services associated with the accumulation of soil organic matter. Here, we first summarize the results of 35 publications that address land use change from boreal forest to agriculture, with the goal of understanding the magnitude and drivers of carbon stock changes with time-since-land use change. Results from the literature synthesis show that conversion of boreal forest to agriculture can result in up to ~57% of existing soil carbon stocks being lost 30 years after land use change occurs. In addition, a three-way interaction with soil carbon, pH and time-since-land use change is observed where soils become more basic with increasing time-since-land use change, coinciding with declines in soil carbon stocks. This relationship is important when looking at the types of crops communities are interested in growing and the type of agriculture associated with cultivating these crops. Partnered communities have identified crops such as berry bushes, root vegetables, potatoes and corn as crops they are interested in growing. As berry bushes grow in acidic conditions and the other mentioned crops grow in more neutral conditions, site selection and management practices associated with growing these crops in appropriate pH environments will be important for managing soil carbon in new agricultural systems in the NWT. Secondly, we also present community scale soil data assessing variation in soil carbon stocks in relation to potential soil fertility metrics targeted to community identified crops of interest for two communities in the NWT.  We collected 192 soil cores from two communities to determine carbon stocks along gradients of potential agriculture suitability. Our field soil carbon measurements in collaboration with the partnered NWT communities show that land use conversions associated with agricultural development could translate to carbon losses ranging from 2.7-11.4 kg C/m<sup>2</sup> depending on the type of soil, agricultural suitability class, and type of land use change associated with cultivation. These results highlight the importance of managing soil carbon in northern agricultural systems and can be used to emphasize the need for new community scale data relating to agricultural land use change in boreal soils. Through the collection of this data, we hope to provide northern communities with a more robust, community scale product that will allow them to make informed land use decisions relating to the cultivation of crops and the minimization of soil carbon losses while maintaining the culturally important traditional food system.</p>

Soil carbon losses in conventional farming systems due to land-use change in the Brazilian semi-arid region

2020 ◽  
Vol 287 ◽  
pp. 106690 ◽  
Author(s):  
Aldair de Souza Medeiros ◽  
Stoécio Malta Ferreira Maia ◽  
Thiago Cândido dos Santos ◽  
Tâmara Cláudia de Araújo Gomes
Keyword(s):  
Land Use ◽  
Land Use Change ◽  
Soil Carbon ◽  
Arid Region ◽  
Farming Systems ◽  
Conventional Farming ◽  
Semi Arid Region ◽  
Carbon Losses ◽  
Semi Arid

scholarly journals Biodiversity can benefit from climate stabilization despite adverse side effects of land-based mitigation

2019 ◽  
Vol 10 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Haruka Ohashi ◽  
Tomoko Hasegawa ◽  
Akiko Hirata ◽  
Shinichiro Fujimori ◽  
Kiyoshi Takahashi ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Land Use ◽  
Land Use Changes ◽  
Biodiversity Loss ◽  
Integrated Assessment Model ◽  
Assessment Model ◽  
Net Benefit ◽  
Model Framework ◽  
Natural Habitats ◽  
Ghg Mitigation ◽  
Global Biodiversity

AbstractLimiting the magnitude of climate change via stringent greenhouse gas (GHG) mitigation is necessary to prevent further biodiversity loss. However, some strategies to mitigate GHG emission involve greater land-based mitigation efforts, which may cause biodiversity loss from land-use changes. Here we estimate how climate and land-based mitigation efforts interact with global biodiversity by using an integrated assessment model framework to project potential habitat for five major taxonomic groups. We find that stringent GHG mitigation can generally bring a net benefit to global biodiversity even if land-based mitigation is adopted. This trend is strengthened in the latter half of this century. In contrast, some regions projected to experience much growth in land-based mitigation efforts (i.e., Europe and Oceania) are expected to suffer biodiversity loss. Our results support the enactment of stringent GHG mitigation policies in terms of biodiversity. To conserve local biodiversity, however, these policies must be carefully designed in conjunction with land-use regulations and societal transformation in order to minimize the conversion of natural habitats.

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