scholarly journals Carbon density and anthropogenic land-use influences on net land-use change emissions

2013 ◽  
Vol 10 (10) ◽  
pp. 6323-6337 ◽  
Author(s):  
S. J. Smith ◽  
A. Rothwell
Keyword(s):  
Land Use ◽  
Land Use Change ◽  
Secondary Forest ◽  
Land Use Changes ◽  
Forest Harvesting ◽  
Integrated Assessment Model ◽  
Assessment Model ◽  
Carbon Cycle Model ◽  
Land Use Scenario ◽  
The Impact

Abstract. We examine historical and future land-use emissions using a simple mechanistic carbon-cycle model with regional and ecosystem specific parameterizations. We use the latest gridded data for historical and future land-use changes, which includes estimates for the impact of forest harvesting and secondary forest regrowth. Our central estimate of net terrestrial land-use change emissions, exclusive of climate–carbon feedbacks, is 250 GtC over the last 300 yr. This estimate is most sensitive to assumptions for preindustrial forest and soil carbon densities. We also find that land-use change emissions estimates are sensitive to the treatment of crop and pasture lands. These sensitivities also translate into differences in future terrestrial uptake in the RCP (representative concentration pathway) 4.5 land-use scenario. The estimate of future uptake obtained here is smaller than the native values from the GCAM (Global Change Assessment Model) integrated assessment model result due to lower net reforestation in the RCP4.5 gridded land-use data product.

scholarly journals Carbon density and anthropogenic land use influences on net land-use change emissions

2013 ◽  
Vol 10 (3) ◽  
pp. 4157-4191
Author(s):  
S. J. Smith ◽  
A. Rothwell
Keyword(s):  
Land Use ◽  
Land Use Change ◽  
Integrated Assessment Model ◽  
Assessment Model ◽  
Climate Feedbacks ◽  
Carbon Density ◽  
Cycle Model ◽  
Carbon Cycle Model ◽  
Land Use Scenario ◽  
Anthropogenic Land Use

Abstract. We examine historical and future land-use emissions using a simple mechanistic carbon-cycle model with regional and ecosystem specific parameterizations. Our central estimate of net terrestrial land-use change emissions, exclusive of climate feedbacks, is 250 Gt C over the last three hundred years. This estimate is most sensitive to assumptions for pre-industrial forest and soil carbon densities. We also find that estimates are sensitive to the treatment of crop and pasture lands. These sensitivities also translate into differences in future terrestrial uptake in the RCP4.5 land-use scenario. This estimate of future uptake is lower than the native values from the GCAM integrated assessment model result due to lower net reforestation in the RCP4.5 gridded land-use data product.

scholarly journals Bioenergy-induced land-use change emissions with sectorally fragmented policies

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Leon Merfort ◽  
Nico Bauer ◽  
Florian Humpenöder ◽  
David Klein ◽  
Jessica Strefler ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Land Use ◽  
Land Use Change ◽  
Co2 Emissions ◽  
Emission Factor ◽  
Integrated Assessment Model ◽  
Assessment Model ◽  
Policy Framework ◽  
Energy Unit ◽  
Emission Regulations ◽  
The Impact

Abstract We assess the impact of different land-use emission policies within a broader climate policy framework on bioenergy production and associated land-use carbon emissions. We use the global Integrated Assessment Model REMIND-MAgPIE integrating the energy and land-use sectors and derive alternative climate change mitigation scenarios over the 21st century. If CO2 emissions are regulated consistently across sectors, land-use change emissions of biofuels are limited to 12 kgCO2/GJ. Without land-use emission regulations applied, bioenergy-induced emissions increase substantially and the emission factor per energy unit raises to levels slightly below diesel combustion (64 kg CO2/GJ). Pricing these emissions on the level of bioenergy consumption diminishes bioenergy deployment and the associated CO2 emissions, while failing to reduce the average emission factor. Despite effective reduction of land-use emissions, undifferentiated penalization of bioenergy use substantially increases mitigation costs. If supply side policies comprehensively regulate direct and indirect emissions, bioenergy can be produced much more sustainably.

scholarly journals The Impact of Land Use Change on Disaster Risk from the Perspective of Efficiency

2021 ◽  
Vol 13 (6) ◽  
pp. 3151
Author(s):  
Qingmu Su ◽  
Kaida Chen ◽  
Lingyun Liao
Keyword(s):  
Land Use ◽  
Land Use Change ◽  
Land Use Changes ◽  
Land Development ◽  
Quantitative Relationship ◽  
Disaster Risk ◽  
Assessment Model ◽  
Risk Level ◽  
High Level ◽  
The Impact

The increasing demand of humankind has caused a large number of land use changes, which pose a direct or indirect threat to the environment while promoting economic growth. The lack of risk-oriented land use changes may increase the disaster risk in the region. Therefore, how to study the relationship between land use change and disaster risk deserves attention. In this study, a research framework with quantitative relationship between land use change and disaster risk was constructed from the perspective of efficiency. The framework integrated land use change, disaster losses and environment variable (runoff increment) into a three-stage data envelopment analysis (DEA) assessment model to dynamically evaluate the impact of land use changes on disasters. The main conclusions include: (I) after the influence of runoff increment and random error was excluded, the overall risk score of counties and cities in Taiwan is 0.643, which represents a relatively high level, indicating that land use changes have caused high disaster risk; and (II) the vulnerability of land development in each county and city can be obtained through the comprehensive score of disaster risk the amount of unused input. The results of this study can help government agencies to rank various types of land development and then determine the acceptable risk level and incorporate disaster risk into land development.

scholarly journals Link between Land Use and Flood Risk Assessment in Urban Areas

Proceedings ◽  
2020 ◽  
Vol 30 (1) ◽  
pp. 62
Author(s):  
Zahra Kalantari ◽  
Johanna Sörensen
Keyword(s):  
Land Use ◽  
Land Use Change ◽  
Green Infrastructure ◽  
Flood Risk ◽  
Urban Areas ◽  
Land Use Changes ◽  
Drainage System ◽  
Property Owners ◽  
Pluvial Flooding ◽  
The Impact

The densification of urban areas has raised concerns over increased pluvial flooding. Flood risk in urban areas might increase under the impact of land use changes. Urbanisation involves the conversion of natural areas to impermeable areas, causing lower infiltration rates and increased runoff. When high-intensity rainfall exceeds the capacity of an urban drainage system, the runoff causes pluvial flooding in low-laying areas. In the present study, a long time series (i.e., 20 years) of geo-referenced flood claims from property owners has been collected and analysed in detail to assess flood risk as it relates to land use changes in urban areas. The flood claim data come from property owners with flood insurance that covers property loss from overland flooding, groundwater intrusion through basement walls, as well as flooding from drainage systems; these data serve as a proxy of flood severity. The spatial relationships between land use change and flood occurrences in different urban areas were analysed. Special emphasis was placed on examining how nature-based solutions and blue-green infrastructure relate to flood risk. The relationships are defined by a statistical method explaining the tendencies whereby land use change affects flood risk.

scholarly journals Biodiversity can benefit from climate stabilization despite adverse side effects of land-based mitigation

2019 ◽  
Vol 10 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Haruka Ohashi ◽  
Tomoko Hasegawa ◽  
Akiko Hirata ◽  
Shinichiro Fujimori ◽  
Kiyoshi Takahashi ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Land Use ◽  
Land Use Changes ◽  
Biodiversity Loss ◽  
Integrated Assessment Model ◽  
Assessment Model ◽  
Net Benefit ◽  
Model Framework ◽  
Natural Habitats ◽  
Ghg Mitigation ◽  
Global Biodiversity

AbstractLimiting the magnitude of climate change via stringent greenhouse gas (GHG) mitigation is necessary to prevent further biodiversity loss. However, some strategies to mitigate GHG emission involve greater land-based mitigation efforts, which may cause biodiversity loss from land-use changes. Here we estimate how climate and land-based mitigation efforts interact with global biodiversity by using an integrated assessment model framework to project potential habitat for five major taxonomic groups. We find that stringent GHG mitigation can generally bring a net benefit to global biodiversity even if land-based mitigation is adopted. This trend is strengthened in the latter half of this century. In contrast, some regions projected to experience much growth in land-based mitigation efforts (i.e., Europe and Oceania) are expected to suffer biodiversity loss. Our results support the enactment of stringent GHG mitigation policies in terms of biodiversity. To conserve local biodiversity, however, these policies must be carefully designed in conjunction with land-use regulations and societal transformation in order to minimize the conversion of natural habitats.

scholarly journals On linking an Earth system model to the equilibrium carbon representation of an economically optimizing land use model

2014 ◽  
Vol 7 (6) ◽  
pp. 2545-2555 ◽  
Author(s):  
B. Bond-Lamberty ◽  
K. Calvin ◽  
A. D. Jones ◽  
J. Mao ◽  
P. Patel ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Land Use ◽  
Land Use Change ◽  
Carbon Cycle ◽  
Integrated Assessment ◽  
Integrated Assessment Model ◽  
Assessment Model ◽  
Earth System ◽  
Climate Effects ◽  
Community Land Model ◽  
Proxy Variables

Abstract. Human activities are significantly altering biogeochemical cycles at the global scale, and the scope of these activities will change with both future climate and socioeconomic decisions. This poses a significant challenge for Earth system models (ESMs), which can incorporate land use change as prescribed inputs but do not actively simulate the policy or economic forces that drive land use change. One option to address this problem is to couple an ESM with an economically oriented integrated assessment model, but this is challenging because of the radically different goals and underpinnings of each type of model. This study describes the development and testing of a coupling between the terrestrial carbon cycle of an ESM (CESM) and an integrated assessment (GCAM) model, focusing on how CESM climate effects on the carbon cycle could be shared with GCAM. We examine the best proxy variables to share between the models, and we quantify how carbon flux changes driven by climate, CO2 fertilization, and land use changes (e.g., deforestation) can be distinguished from each other by GCAM. The net primary production and heterotrophic respiration outputs of the Community Land Model (CLM), the land component of CESM, were found to be the most robust proxy variables by which to recalculate GCAM's assumptions of equilibrium ecosystem steady-state carbon. Carbon cycle effects of land use change are spatially limited relative to climate effects, and thus we were able to distinguish these effects successfully in the model coupling, passing only the latter to GCAM. This paper does not present results of a fully coupled simulation but shows, using a series of offline CLM simulations and an additional idealized Monte Carlo simulation, that our CESM–GCAM proxy variables reflect the phenomena that we intend and do not contain erroneous signals due to land use change. By allowing climate effects from a full ESM to dynamically modulate the economic and policy decisions of an integrated assessment model, this work will help link these models in a robust and flexible framework capable of examining two-way interactions between human and Earth system processes.

scholarly journals ARAHAN PENGENDALIAN PERUBAHAN PENGGUNAAN LAHAN MENGGUNAKAN MARKOV - CELLULAR AUTOMATA DI KABUPATEN CIANJUR

2017 ◽  
Vol 18 (4) ◽  
pp. 211
Author(s):  
Rani Yudarwati ◽  
Santun R.P Sitorus ◽  
Khursatul Munibah
Keyword(s):  
Land Use ◽  
Cellular Automata ◽  
Land Use Change ◽  
Environmental Sustainability ◽  
Land Use Changes ◽  
Landuse Change ◽  
The Past ◽  
Land Use Scenario ◽  
Environment Sustainability ◽  
Spatial Plan

Controlling the rate of land use change is necessary due to maintaining environment sustainability.  One of the efforts is studying the changes that occur in the past few years. These changes can be studied by Markov - Cellular Automata model.Cianjur is one of the regency that has a high risk of landslide hazard, so it is necessary to control land use change in order to realize environmental sustainability in accordance with the spatial plan of Cianjur regency (RTRW). The purpose of this study was to see land use changes that occurred and evaluated with the spatial plan (RTRW) and also to conduct controlling scenarios of land use changes. The analysis showed that Cianjur regency has drastically decreased in forest area up to 10,3% and landuse inconsistencyof 10,4%. The prediction results showed that landuse change without intervention would dramatically increase inconsistency up to 20,5%. Land use scenario of restoring forest could reduce inconsistency up to 16,6%.

scholarly journals Temporal-Spatial Variations and Influencing Factor of Land Use Change in Xinjiang, Central Asia, from 1995 to 2015

2019 ◽  
Vol 11 (3) ◽  
pp. 696 ◽  
Author(s):  
Qun Liu ◽  
Zhaoping Yang ◽  
Cuirong Wang ◽  
Fang Han
Keyword(s):  
Land Use ◽  
Land Use Change ◽  
Central Asia ◽  
Influencing Factor ◽  
Land Use Changes ◽  
Spatial Variations ◽  
Water Bodies ◽  
Unused Land ◽  
Basin Scale ◽  
The Impact

In this study, we analyzed the temporal-spatial variations of the characteristics of land use change in central Asia over the past two decades. This was conducted using four indicators (change rate, equilibrium extent, dynamic index, and transfer direction) and a multi-scale correlation analysis method, which explained the impact of recent environmental transformations on land use changes. The results indicated that the integrated dynamic degree of land use increased by 2.2% from 1995 to 2015. The areas of cropland, water bodies, and artificial land increased, with rates of 1047 km2/a, 39 km2/a, and 129 km2/a, respectively. On the other hand, the areas of forest, grassland, and unused land decreased, with rates of 54 km2/a, 803 km2/a, and 359 km2/a, respectively. There were significant increases in cropland and water bodies from 1995 to 2005, while the amount of artificial land significantly increased from 2005 to 2015. The increased areas of cropland in Xinjiang were mainly converted from grassland and unused land from 1995 to 2015, while the artificial land increase was mainly a result of the conversion from cropland, grassland, and unused land. The area of cropland rapidly expanded in south Xinjiang, which has led to centroid position to move cropland in Xinjiang in a southwest direction. Economic development and the rapid growth of population size are the main factors responsible for the cropland increases in Xinjiang. Runoff variations have a key impact on cropland changes at the river basin scale, as seen in three typical river basins.

scholarly journals Impacts of climate variability and land-use change on hydrology in the period 1981-2009 in the central highlands of Vietnam

2015 ◽  
Vol 17 (4) ◽  
pp. 870-881 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Land Use ◽  
Land Use Change ◽  
Climate Variability ◽  
Assessment Tool ◽  
Meteorological Data ◽  
Land Use Changes ◽  
Hydrological Regime ◽  
Hydrological Response ◽  
Central Highlands ◽  
The Impact

<div> <p>In this study, we investigated the separate and combined impacts of climate and land-use changes on hydrological response in the Central Highlands of Vietnam during the period 1981-2009. The Mann-Kendall and Pettit tests were applied to detect the trends in the hydro-meteorological data. The Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) was setup in the region, and evaluation based on daily data highlights the models adequacy. From this, the responses of hydrology to climate variability and land-use changes were considered. Overall, variability in climate seems to strongly drive the variability in the hydrological response in comparison to alternations in the hydrological regime due to land-use change during the period 1981-2009. The results indicate that land-use change had a minor impact on the annual flow (0.4% reduction), whilst the impact from climate variability had been more significant (13.5% change). Under the impact of coupled climate variability and land-use change, the annual streamflow increased by 13.1%.</p> </div> <p>&nbsp;</p>

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