Global monsoon precipitation responses to large volcanic eruptions

AbstractBoth proxy data and climate modeling show divergent responses of global monsoon precipitation to volcanic eruptions. The reason is however unknown. Here, based on analysis of the CESM Last Millennium Ensemble simulation, we show evidences that the divergent responses are dominated by the pre-eruption background oceanic states. We found that under El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) neutral and warm phases initial conditions, the Pacific favors an El Niño-like anomaly after volcanic eruptions, while La Niña-like SST anomalies tend to occur following eruptions under ENSO cold phase initial condition, especially after southern eruptions. The cold initial condition is associated with stronger upper ocean temperature stratification and shallower thermocline over the eastern Pacific than normal. The easterly anomalies triggered by surface cooling over the tropical South America continent can generate changes in SST through anomalous advection and the ocean subsurface upwelling more efficiently, causing La Niña-like SST anomalies. Whereas under warm initial condition, the easterly anomalies fail to develop and the westerly anomalies still play a dominant role, thus forms an El Niño-like SST anomaly. Such SST response further regulates the monsoon precipitation changes through atmospheric teleconnection. The contribution of direct radiative forcing and indirect SST response to precipitation changes show regional differences, which will further affect the intensity and sign of precipitation response in submonsoon regions. Our results imply that attention should be paid to the background oceanic state when predicting the global monsoon precipitation responses to volcanic eruptions.

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Dependence of global monsoon response to volcanic eruptions on the background oceanic states

10.5194/egusphere-egu21-1003 ◽

2021 ◽

Author(s):

Meng Zuo ◽

Tianjun Zhou ◽

Wenmin Man

Keyword(s):

Radiative Forcing ◽

Initial Conditions ◽

Southern Oscillation ◽

Volcanic Eruptions ◽

Initial Condition ◽

Monsoon Precipitation ◽

Surface Cooling ◽

Global Monsoon ◽

Precipitation Changes ◽

Sst Anomalies

<p>Both proxy data and climate modeling show divergent responses of global monsoon precipitation to volcanic eruptions. The reason is however unknown. Here, based on analysis of the CESM Last Millennium Ensemble simulation, we show evidences that the divergent responses are dominated by the pre-eruption background oceanic states. We found that under El Ni&#241;o-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) neutral and warm phases initial conditions, the Pacific favors an El Ni&#241;o-like anomaly after volcanic eruptions, while La Ni&#241;a-like SST anomalies tend to occur following eruptions under ENSO cold phase initial condition, especially after southern eruptions. The cold initial condition is associated with stronger upper ocean temperature stratification and shallower thermocline over the eastern Pacific than normal. The easterly anomalies triggered by surface cooling over the tropical South America continent can generate changes in SST through anomalous advection and the ocean subsurface upwelling more efficiently, causing La Ni&#241;a-like SST anomalies. Whereas under warm initial condition, the easterly anomalies fail to develop and the westerly anomalies still play a dominant role, thus forms an El Ni&#241;o-like SST anomaly. Such SST response further regulates the monsoon precipitation changes through atmospheric teleconnection. The contribution of direct radiative forcing and indirect SST response to precipitation changes show regional differences, which will further affect the intensity and sign of precipitation response in submonsoon regions. Our results imply that attention should be paid to the background oceanic state when predicting the global monsoon precipitation responses to volcanic eruptions.</p>

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Sensitivity of a coupled climate-carbon cycle model to large volcanic eruptions during the last millennium

Tellus B ◽

10.3402/tellusb.v62i5.16620 ◽

2010 ◽

Vol 62 (5) ◽

Cited By ~ 1

Author(s):

Victor Brovkin ◽

Stephan J. Lorenz ◽

Johann Jungclaus ◽

Thomas Raddatz ◽

Claudia Timmreck ◽

...

Keyword(s):

Carbon Cycle ◽

Volcanic Eruptions ◽

Last Millennium ◽

Cycle Model ◽

Carbon Cycle Model ◽

Large Volcanic Eruptions

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Nonlinear response of global monsoon precipitation to Atlantic overturn-ing strength variations during Marine Isotope Stage 3

10.1002/essoar.10507254.2 ◽

2021 ◽

Author(s):

Xiao Zhang ◽

Matthias Prange ◽

Libin Ma ◽

Jian Liu

Keyword(s):

Nonlinear Response ◽

Marine Isotope Stage ◽

Monsoon Precipitation ◽

Global Monsoon ◽

Marine Isotope Stage 3

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Summer Cooling Driven by Large Volcanic Eruptions over the Tibetan Plateau

Journal of Climate ◽

10.1175/jcli-d-17-0664.1 ◽

2018 ◽

Vol 31 (24) ◽

pp. 9869-9879 ◽

Cited By ~ 7

Author(s):

Jianping Duan ◽

Lun Li ◽

Zhuguo Ma ◽

Jan Esper ◽

Ulf Büntgen ◽

...

Keyword(s):

Tibetan Plateau ◽

El Niño ◽

El Nino ◽

Volcanic Eruptions ◽

The Tibetan Plateau ◽

Temperature Deviation ◽

El Niño Event ◽

El Niño Events ◽

Large Volcanic Eruptions ◽

El Nino Events

Large volcanic eruptions may cause abrupt summer cooling over large parts of the globe. However, no comparable imprint has been found on the Tibetan Plateau (TP). Here, we introduce a 400-yr-long temperature-sensitive network of 17 tree-ring maximum latewood density sites from the TP that demonstrates that the effects of tropical eruptions on the TP are generally greater than those of extratropical eruptions. Moreover, we found that large tropical eruptions accompanied by subsequent El Niño events caused less summer cooling than those that occurred without El Niño association. Superposed epoch analysis (SEA) based on 27 events, including 14 tropical eruptions and 13 extratropical eruptions, shows that the summer cooling driven by extratropical eruptions is insignificant on the TP, while significant summer temperature decreases occur subsequent to tropical eruptions. Further analysis of the TP August–September temperature responses reveals a significant postvolcanic cooling only when no El Niño event occurred. However, there is no such cooling for all other situations, that is, tropical eruptions together with a subsequent El Niño event, as well as extratropical eruptions regardless of the occurrence of an El Niño event. The averaged August–September temperature deviation ( Tdev) following 10 large tropical eruptions without a subsequent El Niño event is up to −0.48° ± 0.19°C (with respect to the preceding 5-yr mean), whereas the temperature deviation following 4 large tropical eruptions with an El Niño association is approximately 0.23° ± 0.16°C. These results indicate a mitigation effect of El Niño events on the TP temperature response to large tropical eruptions. The possible mechanism is that El Niño events can weaken the Indian summer monsoon with a subsequent decrease in rainfall and cooling effect, which may lead to a relatively high temperature on the TP, one of the regions affected by the Indian summer monsoon.

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Changes in global monsoon precipitation and the related dynamic and thermodynamic mechanisms in recent decades

International Journal of Climatology ◽

10.1002/joc.5896 ◽

2018 ◽

Vol 39 (3) ◽

pp. 1490-1503 ◽

Cited By ~ 2

Author(s):

Zixuan Han ◽

Tao Su ◽

Bicheng Huang ◽

Taichen Feng ◽

Shulin Qu ◽

...

Keyword(s):

Monsoon Precipitation ◽

Global Monsoon

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Role of volcanic forcing on future global carbon cycle

Earth System Dynamics Discussions ◽

10.5194/esdd-2-133-2011 ◽

2011 ◽

Vol 2 (1) ◽

pp. 133-159

Author(s):

J. F. Tjiputra ◽

O. H. Otterå

Keyword(s):

Climate Change ◽

Carbon Cycle ◽

21St Century ◽

Volcanic Eruptions ◽

Future Climate Change ◽

Small Scale ◽

Carbon Uptake ◽

Carbon Cycle Model ◽

Large Volcanic Eruptions

Abstract. Using a fully coupled global climate-carbon cycle model, we assess the potential role of volcanic eruptions on future projection of climate change and its associated carbon cycle feedback. The volcanic-like forcings are applied together with business-as-usual IPCC-A2 carbon emissions scenario. We show that very large volcanic eruptions similar to Tambora lead to short-term substantial global cooling. However, over a long period, smaller but more frequent eruptions, such as Pinatubo, would have a stronger impact on future climate change. In a scenario where the volcanic external forcings are prescribed with a five-year frequency, the induced cooling immediately lower the global temperature by more than one degree before return to the warming trend. Therefore, the climate change is approximately delayed by several decades and by the end of the 21st century, the warming is still below two degrees when compared to the present day period. The cooler climate reduces the terrestrial heterotrophic respiration in the northern high latitude and increases net primary production in the tropics, which contributes to more than 45% increase in accumulated carbon uptake over land. The increased solubility of CO2 gas in seawater associated with cooler SST is offset by reduced CO2 partial pressure gradient between ocean and atmosphere, which results in small changes in net ocean carbon uptake. Similarly, there is nearly no change in the seawater buffer capacity simulated between the different volcanic scenarios. Our study shows that even in the relatively extreme scenario where large volcanic eruptions occur every five-years period, the induced cooling only leads to a reduction of 46 ppmv atmospheric CO2 concentration as compared to the reference projection of 878 ppmv, at the end of the 21st century. With respect to sulphur injection geoengineering method, our study suggest that small scale but frequent mitigation is more efficient than the opposite. Moreover, the longer we delay, the more difficult it would be to counteract climate change.

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