Short-term congestion prediction: comparing time series with neural networks

2000 ◽  
Author(s):  
G. Huisken
Keyword(s):  
Neural Networks ◽  
Time Series ◽  
Short Term ◽  
Congestion Prediction

scholarly journals Forecasting Reservoir Water Levels Using Deep Neural Networks: A Case Study of Angat Dam in the Philippines

Water ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 14 (1) ◽  
pp. 34
Author(s):  
Sebastian C. Ibañez ◽  
Carlo Vincienzo G. Dajac ◽  
Marissa P. Liponhay ◽  
Erika Fille T. Legara ◽  
Jon Michael H. Esteban ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Neural Networks ◽  
Time Series ◽  
Deep Neural Networks ◽  
Cross Validation ◽  
The Philippines ◽  
Water Levels ◽  
Short Term ◽  
Exogenous Variables ◽  
Reservoir Water ◽  
Forecasting Performance

Forecasting reservoir water levels is essential in water supply management, impacting both operations and intervention strategies. This paper examines the short-term and long-term forecasting performance of several statistical and machine learning-based methods for predicting the water levels of the Angat Dam in the Philippines. A total of six forecasting methods are compared: naïve/persistence; seasonal mean; autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA); gradient boosting machines (GBM); and two deep neural networks (DNN) using a long short-term memory-based (LSTM) encoder-decoder architecture: a univariate model (DNN-U) and a multivariate model (DNN-M). Daily historical water levels from 2001 to 2021 are used in predicting future water levels. In addition, we include meteorological data (rainfall and the Oceanic Niño Index) and irrigation data as exogenous variables. To evaluate the forecast accuracy of our methods, we use a time series cross-validation approach to establish a more robust estimate of the error statistics. Our results show that our DNN-U model has the best accuracy in the 1-day-ahead scenario with a mean absolute error (MAE) and root mean square error (RMSE) of 0.2 m. In the 30-day-, 90-day-, and 180-day-ahead scenarios, the DNN-M shows the best performance with MAE (RMSE) scores of 2.9 (3.3), 5.1 (6.0), and 6.7 (8.1) meters, respectively. Additionally, we demonstrate that further improvements in performance are possible by scanning over all possible combinations of the exogenous variables and only using a subset of them as features. In summary, we provide a comprehensive framework for evaluating water level forecasting by defining a baseline accuracy, analyzing performance across multiple prediction horizons, using time series cross-validation to assess accuracy and uncertainty, and examining the effects of exogenous variables on forecasting performance. In the process, our work addresses several notable gaps in the methodologies of previous works.

scholarly journals Long Short-Term Memory Neural Networks for Online Disturbance Detection in Satellite Image Time Series

2018 ◽  
Vol 10 (3) ◽  
pp. 452 ◽  
Author(s):  
Yun-Long Kong ◽  
Qingqing Huang ◽  
Chengyi Wang ◽  
Jingbo Chen ◽  
Jiansheng Chen ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Neural Networks ◽  
Time Series ◽  
Short Term Memory ◽  
Satellite Image ◽  
Short Term ◽  
Term Memory ◽  
Long Short Term Memory ◽  
Disturbance Detection

scholarly journals NEURAL NETWORK FORECASTING OF ENERGY CONSUMPTION OF A METALLURGICAL ENTERPRISE

2021 ◽  
pp. 14-22
Author(s):  
Anna Bakurova ◽  
Olesia Yuskiv ◽  
Dima Shyrokorad ◽  
Anton Riabenko ◽  
Elina Tereschenko
Keyword(s):  
Neural Network ◽  
Neural Networks ◽  
Time Series ◽  
Artificial Neural Networks ◽  
Energy Consumption ◽  
Short Term ◽  
Metallurgical Enterprise ◽  
Input Information ◽  
The Neural Network ◽  
Artificial Neural

The subject of the research is the methods of constructing and training neural networks as a nonlinear modeling apparatus for solving the problem of predicting the energy consumption of metallurgical enterprises. The purpose of this work is to develop a model for forecasting the consumption of the power system of a metallurgical enterprise and its experimental testing on the data available for research of PJSC "Dneprospetsstal". The following tasks have been solved: analysis of the time series of power consumption; building a model with the help of which data on electricity consumption for a historical period is processed; building the most accurate forecast of the actual amount of electricity for the day ahead; assessment of the forecast quality. Methods used: time series analysis, neural network modeling, short-term forecasting of energy consumption in the metallurgical industry. The results obtained: to develop a model for predicting the energy consumption of a metallurgical enterprise based on artificial neural networks, the MATLAB complex with the Neural Network Toolbox was chosen. When conducting experiments, based on the available statistical data of a metallurgical enterprise, a selection of architectures and algorithms for learning neural networks was carried out. The best results were shown by the feedforward and backpropagation network, architecture with nonlinear autoregressive and learning algorithms: Levenberg-Marquard nonlinear optimization, Bayesian Regularization method and conjugate gradient method. Another approach, deep learning, is also considered, namely the neural network with long short-term memory LSTM and the adam learning algorithm. Such a deep neural network allows you to process large amounts of input information in a short time and build dependencies with uninformative input information. The LSTM network turned out to be the most effective among the considered neural networks, for which the indicator of the maximum prediction error had the minimum value. Conclusions: analysis of forecasting results using the developed models showed that the chosen approach with experimentally selected architectures and learning algorithms meets the necessary requirements for forecast accuracy when developing a forecasting model based on artificial neural networks. The use of models will allow automating high-precision operational hourly forecasting of energy consumption in market conditions. Keywords: energy consumption; forecasting; artificial neural network; time series.

Deep machine learning for detection of acoustic wave reflections

2019 ◽  
Vol 19 (5) ◽  
pp. 1340-1350
Author(s):  
Mulugeta A Haile ◽  
Edward Zhu ◽  
Christopher Hsu ◽  
Natasha Bradley
Keyword(s):  
Neural Networks ◽  
Time Series ◽  
Acoustic Emission ◽  
Time Series Data ◽  
Short Term Memory ◽  
Series Data ◽  
Short Term ◽  
Term Memory ◽  
Propagating Waves ◽  
Long Short Term Memory

Acoustic emission signals are information rich and can be used to estimate the size and location of damage in structures. However, many existing algorithms may be deceived by indirectly propagated acoustic emission waves which are modulated by reflection boundaries within the structures. We propose two deep learning models to identify such waves such that existing algorithms for damage detection and localization may be used. The first approach uses long short-term memory recurrent neural networks to learn distinct patterns directly from the time-series data. In the second approach, we transform the time-series data into spectrograms and utilize convolutional neural networks to perform binary classification by leveraging spectro-temporal features. We achieved 80% classification accuracy using long short-term memory and near-perfect accuracy using convolutional neural networks on a dataset of acoustic emission signals generated by the Hsu-Nielsen sources. Both long short-term memory and convolutional neural network models were able to learn general and context-specific features of the direct and reflected acoustic emission waves. Once accurately identified, the indirectly propagating waves are filtered out while the directly propagating waves are used for source location using existing methods.

Short-term load forecasting by using a combined method of convolutional neural networks and fuzzy time series

Energy ◽  
2019 ◽  
Vol 175 ◽  
pp. 365-377 ◽  
Author(s):  
Hossein Javedani Sadaei ◽  
Petrônio Cândido de Lima e Silva ◽  
Frederico Gadelha Guimarães ◽  
Muhammad Hisyam Lee
Keyword(s):  
Neural Networks ◽  
Time Series ◽  
Convolutional Neural Networks ◽  
Load Forecasting ◽  
Fuzzy Time Series ◽  
Combined Method ◽  
Short Term ◽  
Short Term Load Forecasting

scholarly journals Prospective Methodologies in Hybrid Renewable Energy Systems for Energy Prediction Using Artificial Neural Networks

2021 ◽  
Vol 13 (4) ◽  
pp. 2393
Author(s):  
Md Mijanur Rahman ◽  
Mohammad Shakeri ◽  
Sieh Kiong Tiong ◽  
Fatema Khatun ◽  
Nowshad Amin ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Neural Network ◽  
Neural Networks ◽  
Time Series ◽  
Artificial Neural Networks ◽  
Renewable Energy ◽  
Series Data ◽  
Short Term ◽  
Energy Forecasting ◽  
Artificial Neural ◽  
Hybrid Renewable Energy

This paper presents a comprehensive review of machine learning (ML) based approaches, especially artificial neural networks (ANNs) in time series data prediction problems. According to literature, around 80% of the world’s total energy demand is supplied either through fuel-based sources such as oil, gas, and coal or through nuclear-based sources. Literature also shows that a shortage of fossil fuels is inevitable and the world will face this problem sooner or later. Moreover, the remote and rural areas that suffer from not being able to reach traditional grid power electricity need alternative sources of energy. A “hybrid-renewable-energy system” (HRES) involving different renewable resources can be used to supply sustainable power in these areas. The uncertain nature of renewable energy resources and the intelligent ability of the neural network approach to process complex time series inputs have inspired the use of ANN methods in renewable energy forecasting. Thus, this study aims to study the different data driven models of ANN approaches that can provide accurate predictions of renewable energy, like solar, wind, or hydro-power generation. Various refinement architectures of neural networks, such as “multi-layer perception” (MLP), “recurrent-neural network” (RNN), and “convolutional-neural network” (CNN), as well as “long-short-term memory” (LSTM) models, have been offered in the applications of renewable energy forecasting. These models are able to perform short-term time-series prediction in renewable energy sources and to use prior information that influences its value in future prediction.

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