scholarly journals Mini-grid hybridization and demand side management on non-interconnected small islands: the case study of Ustica, Italy

2021 ◽  
Vol 238 ◽  
pp. 02008
Author(s):  
Paolo Cherubini ◽  
Guido Francesco Frate ◽  
Marco Antonino Maggiore ◽  
Andrea Micangeli ◽  
Lorenzo Ferrari
Keyword(s):  
Renewable Energy Sources ◽  
Demand Side Management ◽  
Base Case ◽  
Small Islands ◽  
Demand Side ◽  
Mediterranean Islands ◽  
Case Scenario ◽  
Base Case Scenario ◽  
Regulatory Constraints

Small Mediterranean islands are typically served by mini-grids based on inefficient, polluting and costly diesel generators that provide electricity and freshwater through desalination plants. The study focuses on the case study of the Italian island of Ustica, for which the actual consumption and generation load profiles for 2018 have been used to simulate different scenarios through HOMER Pro software. The scenarios tested the possible integration of renewable energy sources (photovoltaic, small wind turbines) and electrochemical storage in the system, based on a techno-economic, financial, and environmental analysis. In addition to generation-side interventions, demand-side management strategies have been evaluated by considering the desalter as a deferrable load and by introducing energy efficiency measures. Finally, a sensitivity analysis on the most influential parameters (diesel price, discount rate) has been conducted on the base case scenario. The proposed technical solutions are compatible with the environmental and regulatory constraints of the island and lead to reduced emissions and long-term savings. The savings would enable a reduction in the cross-subsidy that the mainland electricity users pay to cover the higher costs incurred for diesel generation in non-interconnected small islands.

scholarly journals Will Aggregator Reduce Renewable Power Surpluses? A System Dynamics Approach for the Latvia Case Study

Energies ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 14 (23) ◽  
pp. 7900
Author(s):  
Ieva Pakere ◽  
Armands Gravelsins ◽  
Girts Bohvalovs ◽  
Liga Rozentale ◽  
Dagnija Blumberga
Keyword(s):  
System Dynamics ◽  
Renewable Energy Sources ◽  
National Level ◽  
Electricity Consumption ◽  
Demand Side Management ◽  
Demand Side ◽  
Peak Shaving ◽  
Renewable Power ◽  
Surplus Power

Power demand-side management has been identified as one of the possible elements towards a more flexible power system in case of increased capacities of variable renewable energy sources—solar and wind energy. The market coordinators or aggregators are introduced to adjust the electricity consumption by following the market situation. However, the role of aggregators is mainly analysed from the economic perspective, and the demand side management is performed to maximise the utilisation of low price power during off-peak hours. However, this research focuses on analysing the introduction of aggregators as a future player to increase the total share of renewable power and decrease the surplus solar and wind electricity occurrence. An in-depth system dynamics model has been developed to analyse the hourly power production and power consumption rates at the national level for the Latvia case study. The results show that introducing aggregators and load shifting based on standard peak shaving can increase the share of surplus power and does not benefit from increased utilisation of solar and wind power. On the contrary, demand-side management based on available RES power can decrease the surplus power by 5%.

Promoting Sustainable Housing with Fundamental Shift beyond Net-Zero and Green Building

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Biswadeep Bharali ◽  
Basanta Rajbanshi ◽  
Tashi Yangzom ◽  
Himal Dahal ◽  
Muden Rai ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Energy Consumption ◽  
Renewable Energy Sources ◽  
Green Building ◽  
Weather Data ◽  
Base Case ◽  
Net Energy ◽  
Case Scenario ◽  
Total Energy Consumption ◽  
Base Case Scenario

<p>Net positive buildings can be the solution to slow down climate change. Old buildings and minimum code buildings only strive for structural protection, but they do not play a part in climate change mitigation solutions. In this study, we try to demonstrate net positive buildings' contribution in reducing global greenhouse gas emissions by taking the Guwahati region (India) as a study area. First, we developed a north-facing 3-B-H-K residential building plan with a two-car garage using the most commonly used construction materials in the region as a base case scenario. The weather data (like Temperature, Relative Humidity, and Airspeed) for 2020 is collected. With these inputs, the annual total energy consumption for the present climatic condition is simulated using the Ecotect tool. Then three different scenarios (modification of walls, modification of roofs, and floor modification) were created. The energy interpretation for the overall modified case was done and compared with the base case scenario. The result indicates that the total annual energy consumption for the overall modified case was reduced by 70% as compared to the base case model. The remaining 30% of the energy usage was supplied by renewable energy sources using photovoltaic cells to make net energy consumption zero.  These findings suggest that the old building can be renovated and modified to act as a mitigation solution to climate change.</p>

scholarly journals Implementing Sustainability in Retrofitting Heritage Buildings. Case Study: Villa Antoniadis, Alexandria, Egypt

Heritage ◽  
2018 ◽  
Vol 1 (1) ◽  
pp. 57-87 ◽  
Author(s):  
Ahmed Khalil ◽  
Naglaa Hammouda ◽  
Khaled El-Deeb
Keyword(s):  
Energy Efficiency ◽  
Natural Ventilation ◽  
New Technologies ◽  
Sustainable Design ◽  
Adaptive Reuse ◽  
Renewable Energy Sources ◽  
Heritage Conservation ◽  
Base Case ◽  
Heritage Buildings

Sustainable design is believed to stand on the opposite side of heritage conservation. This view is supported by the fact that sustainable design requires invasive measures to implement new technologies and treatments that challenge the principle of minimum intervention in heritage conservation. Another point of view sees heritage conservation as an already act of sustainable development that protects and preserves social and cultural resources such as heritage buildings and their intangible values. On the other hand, research and practice have proven that heritage buildings can be the subjects of sustainable design projects that achieve outstanding measures of sustainability and energy efficiency while not compromising the authenticity of the heritage value of the building. This sustainable conservation reaches its peak in adaptive-reuse projects of heritage buildings as reusing the building guarantees its ongoing maintenance and promotes its social, cultural and economic values to society, while giving it the ability to withstand modern users’ comfort and energy efficiency standards. This research presents a case study of the adaptive-reuse project of Villa Antoniadis in Alexandria; a heritage building built in the mid-nineteenth century and in the process of a major adaptive-reuse project. The history and significance of the building will be studied as well as the conservation values of the current project, then some proposals for interventions that could achieve more energy efficiency for the project while conserving the building are discussed. The research included a simulation of the building, using building energy modelling software for the current adaptive-reuse project as a base case, and the hypothetical application of different proposed sustainable interventions such as thermal insulation, double glazing, shading, lighting control, natural ventilation, and photovoltaic energy generation, where the energy savings potentials for each proposed intervention were studied. The simulation proved a possible reduction of 36.5% in the cooling, heating and lighting energy consumption as well as generated 74.7% of the energy required for cooling, heating and lighting from renewable energy sources.

scholarly journals Modelling and mitigating dose to firefighters from inhalation of radionuclides in wildland fire smoke

2015 ◽  
Vol 24 (5) ◽  
pp. 723 ◽  
Author(s):  
Brian J. Viner ◽  
Tim Jannik ◽  
Daniel Stone ◽  
Allan Hepworth ◽  
Luke Naeher ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Environmental Conditions ◽  
Wildland Fire ◽  
Radioactive Material ◽  
Fuel Load ◽  
Base Case ◽  
Published Data ◽  
Case Scenario ◽  
Base Case Scenario ◽  
Fuel Loads ◽  
Radiological Dose

Firefighters responding to wildland fires where surface litter and vegetation contain radiological contamination will receive a radiological dose by inhaling resuspended radioactive material in the smoke. This may increase their lifetime risk of contracting certain types of cancer. Using published data, we modelled hypothetical radionuclide emissions, dispersion and dose for 70th and 97th percentile environmental conditions and for average and high fuel loads at the Savannah River Site. We predicted downwind concentration and potential dose to firefighters for radionuclides of interest (137Cs, 238Pu, 90Sr and 210Po). Predicted concentrations exceeded dose guidelines in the base case scenario emissions of 1.0 × 107 Bq ha–1 for 238Pu at 70th percentile environmental conditions and average fuel load levels for both 4- and 14-h shifts. Under 97th percentile environmental conditions and high fuel loads, dose guidelines were exceeded for several reported cases for 90Sr, 238Pu and 210Po. The potential for exceeding dose guidelines was mitigated by including plume rise (>2 m s–1) or moving a small distance from the fire owing to large concentration gradients near the edge of the fire. This approach can quickly estimate potential dose from airborne radionuclides in wildland fire and assist decision-making to reduce firefighter exposure.

scholarly journals Impact of changes in the methodology of external price referencing on medicine prices: discrete-event simulation

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Sabine Vogler ◽  
Peter Schneider ◽  
Lena Lepuschütz
Keyword(s):  
Cost Containment ◽  
Discrete Event ◽  
Real Life ◽  
Base Case ◽  
Case Scenario ◽  
Medicine Price ◽  
Base Case Scenario ◽  
The Real ◽  
Methodological Choices ◽  
Medicine Prices

Abstract Background: Several governments apply the policy of external price referencing (EPR), which considers the prices of a medicine in one or more other countries for the purpose of setting the price in the own country. Different methodological choices can be taken to design EPR. The study aimed to analyse whether, or not, and how changes in the methodology of EPR can impact medicine prices.Methods: The real-life EPR methodology as of Q1/2015 was surveyed in all European Union Member States (where applicable), Iceland, Norway and Switzerland through a questionnaire responded by national pricing authorities. Different scenarios were developed related to the parameters of the EPR methodology. Discrete-event simulations of fictitious prices in the 28 countries of the study that had EPR were run over 10 years. The continuation of the real-life EPR methodology in the countries as surveyed in 2015, without any change, served as base case.Results: In most scenarios, after ten years, medicine prices in all or most surveyed countries were – sometimes considerably – lower than in the base case scenario. But in a few scenarios medicine prices increased in some countries. Consideration of discounts (an assumed 20% discount in five large economies and the mandatory discount in Germany, Greece and Ireland) and determining the reference price based on the lowest price in the country basket would result in higher price reductions (on average -47.2% and -34.2% compared to the base case). An adjustment of medicine price data of the reference countries by purchasing power parities would lead to higher prices in some more affluent countries (e.g. Switzerland, Norway) and lower prices in lower-income economies (Bulgaria, Romania, Hungary, Poland). Regular price revisions and changes in the basket of reference countries would also impact medicine prices, however to a lesser extent.Conclusions: EPR has some potential for cost-containment. Medicine prices could be decreased if certain parameters of the EPR methodology were changed. If public payers aim to apply EPR to keep medicine prices at more affordable levels, they are encouraged to explore the cost-containment potential of this policy by taking appropriate methodological choices in the EPR design.

scholarly journals Skenario Pengembangan Untuk Meningkatkan Recovery Factor Pada Lapangan TR Lapisan X Dengan Menggunakan Simulasi Reservoir

PETRO ◽  
2018 ◽  
Vol 4 (4) ◽  
Author(s):  
Muhamad Taufan Azhari
Keyword(s):  
Reservoir Simulation ◽  
History Matching ◽  
Control Volume ◽  
Base Case ◽  
Case Scenario ◽  
Injection Wells ◽  
Base Case Scenario ◽  
Development Scenarios ◽  
Production Wells ◽  
Grid Construction

<p>Reservoir simulation is an area of reservoir engineering in which computer models are used to predict the flow of fluids through porous media. Reservoir simulation process starts with several steps; data preparation, model and grid construction, initialization, history matching and prediction. Initialization process is done for matching OOIP or total initial hydrocarbon which fill reservoir with hydrocarbon control volume with volumetric method.</p><p>To aim the best encouraging optimum data, these development scenarios of TR Field Layer X will be predicted for 30 years (from 2014 until January 2044). Development scenarios in this study consist of 4 scenarios : Scenario 1 (Base Case), Scenario 2 (Base Case + Reopening non-active wells), Scenario 3 (scenario 2 + infill production wells), Scenario 4 (Scenario 2 + 5 spot pattern of infill injection wells).</p>

Abstract T MP100: Improving Encounter Frequency, Physician Prescribing, or Patient Adherence - What Works Best for Controlling Blood Pressure? Results From a Validated Micro-Simulation Model

Stroke ◽  
2014 ◽  
Vol 45 (suppl_1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Valy Fontil ◽  
Kirsten Bibbins-Domingo ◽  
Dhruv Kazi ◽  
Pamela Coxson ◽  
Steve Sidney ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Blood Pressure ◽  
Clinical Trial ◽  
Patient Adherence ◽  
The United States ◽  
Control Model ◽  
Uncontrolled Hypertension ◽  
Base Case ◽  
Treatment Intensification ◽  
Case Scenario ◽  
Base Case Scenario

Background: Only half of hypertensive adults achieve blood pressure (BP) control in the United States. Methods: We developed the BP Control Model to simulate physician- and patient-level processes relevant in achieving BP control. We validated the model by simulating the intervention arm of a recent multicenter clinical trial and used the validated model to examine the effects of isolated improvements in three modifiable processes on BP control. Data from national surveys, cohort studies, and trials were used to parameterize the model. We simulated 5,000 hypothetical adult patients with uncontrolled hypertension (systolic BP≥ 140) using probability sampling of participants from the 2009-2010 National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey. We modeled 50% improvements and ideal scenarios for each process parameter. Outcome: We reported outcomes in terms of BP control (% with SBP < 140 mmHg), and average change in BP at 52 weeks. Results: In our validation analysis, the model-predicted BP control was similar to what was achieved in the VIPER-BP clinical trial (63.5% vs. 63.8%). In our base case scenario, 24% of the NHANES-derived cohort achieved BP control at 52 weeks. In scenarios with 50% improvements, the model predicted small increases in BP control, but substantially larger and more variable effects when processes were idealized (Table). Control was reached in 77% with ideal treatment intensification, 44% with ideal encounter frequency, only 32% with ideal adherence, and 97% when all three processes were idealized. Conclusion: While improving patient adherence to medications would improve BP control, healthcare systems can achieve similar or greater success by focusing on increasing the frequency of clinical encounters and improving physicians’ prescribing behavior. The BP Control Model can be used to predict how much improvement to expect from such interventions.

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