scholarly journals Research on Influencing Factors of Tourism Income in Qinghai Province-Based on error correction model and Granger causality test

2021 ◽  
Vol 275 ◽  
pp. 02032
Author(s):  
Yi Chen ◽  
Jingqi Liu ◽  
Songkui Yin
Keyword(s):  
Error Correction ◽  
Granger Causality ◽  
Influencing Factors ◽  
Granger Causality Test ◽  
Error Correction Model ◽  
Causality Test ◽  
Correction Model ◽  
Qinghai Province ◽  
Tourism Revenue

As an important growth point of Qinghai’s economic development, tourism has become increasingly prominent in its contribution to the development of the national economy and has become one of the most dynamic industries in the province. Based on the relevant data from 2001 to 2018, this paper explores the influencing factors of tourism revenue in Qinghai Province by constructing an error correction model and combining Granger causality test. The research results show that there is a significant correlation between the total number of tourist visits, per capita GDP and traffic conditions, and the growth of tourism income in Qinghai Province. Among them, every 1% increase in the total number of tourist arrivals drives an average increase of 1.566% in tourism revenue; and the short-term elasticity of tourism revenue to the total number of tourist arrivals is slightly greater than the long-term elasticity.

scholarly journals Exchange rate and Export of Bangladesh: Does Marshall-Lerner condition holds?

2022 ◽  
Vol 10 (1) ◽  
pp. 09-16
Author(s):  
Shovon Roy ◽  
Jonaed
Keyword(s):  
Exchange Rate ◽  
Error Correction ◽  
Granger Causality ◽  
Granger Causality Test ◽  
Error Correction Model ◽  
Series Data ◽  
Causality Test ◽  
Correction Model ◽  
Short Run ◽  
The Exchange Rate

Export is expected to have a favorable impact on GDP growth, and the exchange rate is expected to have a major impact on export and thus export earnings. The relationship between exchange rate and export is a hotly debated topic in macroeconomics, and the goal of this research is to see if the Marshall-Lerner condition holds incase of Bangladesh that is if devaluation of domestic currency increase export earnings. Explanatory variables of the model in the study are the exchange rate, foreign income (WGDP), and domestic income (DGDP). Cointegration approaches; Error Correction model, Granger Causality test are used in this study to estimate the long and short-run impacts. With time series data from 1973Q3 to 2018Q2, we used the Error Correction Model and the Granger Causality Test. The findings of VECM support short-run exchange rate and export adjustments. The bidirectional causality between exchange rate and export is established using the Granger causality test.

scholarly journals ANALISIS PENGARUH INDEKS HARGA KONSUMEN, JUMLAH UANG BEREDAR (M1), KURS RUPIAH, DAN INDEKS S&P 500 TERHADAP INDEKS HARGA SAHAM GABUNGAN: STUDI EMPIRIS PADA BURSA EFEK INDONESIA

2014 ◽  
Vol 3 (2) ◽  
Author(s):  
Heriyanto Heriyanto ◽  
Ming Chen
Keyword(s):  
Error Correction ◽  
Granger Causality ◽  
Granger Causality Test ◽  
Error Correction Model ◽  
Vector Error Correction Model ◽  
Causality Test ◽  
Correction Model ◽  
Vector Error Correction ◽  
Spurious Regression ◽  
Vector Error

Penelitian ini bertujuan untuk menguji hubungan keseimbangan jangka panjang antara variabel makroekonomi (yang diproksi dengan variabel indeks harga konsumen, jumlah uang beredar, kurs rupiah terhadap dollar, dan Indeks S&P 500) dengan indeks harga saham gabungan (IHSG). Data bulanan variabel makroekonomi dan IHSG selama periode Januari 2005 – Desember 2013 digunakan untuk pengujian hubungan keseimbangan jangka panjang. Data penelitian dikumpulkan dengan metode dokumentasi yang terdiri dari variabel indeks harga konsumen, jumlah uang beredar, kurs rupiah terhadap dollar, Indeks S&P 500, dan IHSG. Setelah data dikumpulkan, data selanjutnya akan dianalisis dengan menggunakan analisis regresi berganda. Analisis pengujian residual (dari model regresi berganda) dengan pendekatan Granger Residual Test digunakan untuk memastikan tidak terjadi spurious regression (regresi palsu). Selanjutnya, analisis data dengan pengujian Johannsen Cointegration Test digunakan untuk menguji keberadaan hubungan keseimbangan jangka panjang antara variabel makroekonomi dan IHSG. Tahap akhir analisis data dilakukan dengan pengujian vector error correction model (VECM) dan Granger Causality Test yang bertujuan untuk menguji kemungkinan adanya hubungan biderectional (dua arah) antara variabel makroekonomi dan IHSG. Hasil pengujian menggunakan analisis regresi berganda menunjukkan bahwa variabel kurs rupiah terhadap dollar dan Indeks S&P 500 berpengaruh signifikan terhadap pergerakan indeks harga saham gabungan, sedangkan variabel indeks harga konsumen dan jumlah uang beredar tidak berpengaruh signifikan. Hasil pengujian dengan menggunakan Granger Residual Test menunjukkan bahwa tidak terdapat spurious regression. Sementara itu, hasil pengujian dengan menggunakan Johannsen Cointegration Test menunjukkan bahwa terdapat hubungan keseimbangan jangka panjang antara variabel makroekonomi dan IHSG. Terkait dengan kemungkinan adanya hubungan biderectional antara variabel makroekonomi dan IHSG, hasil pengujian dengan menggunakan Vector Error Correction Model (VECM) dan Granger Causality Test menunjukkan bahwa hubungan antara variabel makroekonomi dan IHSG adalah hubungan satu arah. Kata Kunci: spurious regression, granger residual test, granger causality test, vector error correction model.

scholarly journals The Impact of Bank Credits on the Manufacturing Sector in Nigeria (1980-2015)

2019 ◽  
pp. 1-18
Author(s):  
Otubu, Osaretin Paul
Keyword(s):  
Error Correction ◽  
Granger Causality ◽  
Positive Impact ◽  
Manufacturing Sector ◽  
Error Correction Model ◽  
Ordinary Least Squares ◽  
Causality Test ◽  
Correction Model ◽  
The Government ◽  
The Impact

The study examined the impact of bank credits on the manufacturing sector in Nigeria from 1980 to 2015. The broad objective of the study is to examine the impact of bank credits on the manufacturing sector in Nigeria between 1980 and 2015. The econometrics methods of ordinary least squares, co-integration, error correction model and granger causality test were used as the main analytical tools. From the estimated error correction model, we found that bank credits to the manufacturing sector had a positive impact on the manufacturing sector output. Government expenditure, gross capital formation and tertiary school enrolment conforms to apriori expectation. A bank credit was found to be necessary for influencing or boosting manufacturing sector output. In addition, the granger causality result reveals that there is causal relationship between bank credits and manufacturing sector output in Nigeria. It is therefore recommended that the cost of borrowing should be reduced, and relevant authorities should maintain a sustained effort aimed at making sure that banks strictly comply with the credit concession granted to the manufacturing sector, and the government should provide social amenities and conducive environment for industrialization.

scholarly journals The Causality between Gross Fixed Capital Formation, Trade Deficit, Exchange Rate, and the Economic Growth of Pakistan

2020 ◽  
Vol 9 (4) ◽  
pp. 138-147
Author(s):  
SALMA ZAHIR ◽  
KAUSER HAYAT ◽  
AFTAB HAIDER
Keyword(s):  
Exchange Rate ◽  
Gross Domestic Product ◽  
Error Correction ◽  
Granger Causality ◽  
Trade Deficit ◽  
Granger Causality Test ◽  
Fixed Capital ◽  
Causality Test ◽  
Correction Model ◽  
Fixed Capital Formation

The research paper studies the causal link between gross domestic product, gross fixed-capital formations, exchange rate, and trade deficits in Pakistan from 1986 to 2013 with time serial data. ADF and Phillip Perron tests are recycled for stationary and at the first difference, each variable is unified. According to the Johansen Co-integration test, the presence of longer-term Co-integration among variables is displayed, and the Error Correction model expresses that 49.27 % of short-term uncertainty is adjusted in long-term equilibrium. Moreover, the Granger causality test presented causality among the variables. While the conclusion showed that such variables have unidirectional causation. Keywords: Trade Deficit, Exchange Rate, Gross Fixed Capital Formation, Gross Domestic Product, ADF, Phillip Perron, Johansen Co-integration, Error Correction model, & Granger Causality test.

ANALISIS INTEGRASI SPASIAL PASAR CABAI MERAH KERITING DI JAWA TENGAH DENGAN METODE VECTOR ERROR CORRECTION MODEL

2021 ◽  
Vol 10 (2) ◽  
pp. 190-199
Author(s):  
Kenia Samantha ◽  
Tarno Tarno ◽  
Rita Rahmawati
Keyword(s):  
Error Correction ◽  
Granger Causality ◽  
Market Integration ◽  
Error Correction Model ◽  
Vector Error Correction Model ◽  
Correction Model ◽  
Vector Error Correction ◽  
Vector Error ◽  
Regional Markets

Curly red chili (Capsicum annuum L.) is one of commodity which has a big influence to the national economy. To maintain the price stability of curly red chili, an integrated market is needed. Spatial market integration is the level of closeness of relations between regional markets and other regional markets. Spatial market integration will be modeled by the Vector Error Correction Model (VECM) method to see the closeness of both short and long term relationships. The object of this study is the price of curly red chili for several regions in Central Java, such as Kota Semarang, Kab. Demak, Kab. Pati, and Kab. Pekalongan in the period January 2016 to December 2019 where the data has met the stationarity test at first level of difference. In Johansen's cointegration test, it was obtained 3 cointegrations, which means that in each short-term period all variables tend to adjust to each other to achieve long-term balance. Granger causality test shows that there is a two-way relationship and the relationship affects one variable to another for all variables. The VECM model obtained has the MAPE accuracy value for HCMK Semarang 15.93%, Kab. Demak 17.61%, Kab. Pati 15.88%, and Kab. Pekalongan 14.49% which can be interpreted that the performance of the model is good. Keywords: Curly Red Chili, Spatial Market Integration, VECM, Johansen's Cointegration, Granger Causality

scholarly journals Spatial Redistributions of Regional Economic Activity in Central Java (Direct Error Correction Model Causality Approach)

2020 ◽  
Vol 21 (1) ◽  
pp. 1-13
Author(s):  
Jihad Lukis Panjawa ◽  
Bhimo Rizky Samudro
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Error Correction ◽  
Error Correction Model ◽  
Spatial Inequality ◽  
Domestic Product ◽  
Correction Model ◽  
Regional Autonomy ◽  
Central Java ◽  
Observation Period

This study analyzes spatial inequality through a causal relationship between inequality and economic growth within-recidency, between-recidency and overall in Central Java.The analytical tool used is the Direct Error Correction Model causality. This study shows that spatial concentrations throughout the observation period are quite high. In the 2001-2008 period there was an increasing tendency for spatialconcentration, reflecting the decline in the distribution of the Gross Regional Domestic Product (GRDP) share of districts and cities in Central Java. We also obtained similar findings in a number of regions both within and between-recidency. Post-2008, spatial concentration tends to decrease, indicating the distribution of the Gross Regional Domestic Product share. Other findings indicate a one-way relationship shown economic growth towards inequality. Another important contribution is that economic growth in inequality only occurs in the long term. Thus there has been convergence because of the increase ineconomic growth which is able to reduce inequality in all areas of Central Java, including within and between-recidency. This proves that during the implementation of regional autonomy there is a spread effect greater than the backwash effect in Central Java, including within and between-recidency.

Sign in / Sign up

Export Citation Format

Share Document