scholarly journals Case study: mapping the tsunami-hazard zone in the Pasir Jambak sub-district, in Padang, Indonesia

2021 ◽  
Vol 331 ◽  
pp. 04006
Author(s):  
Leli Honesti ◽  
Meli Muchlian

A tsunami hazard is an adverse event that causes damage to properties and loss of life. The problem in assessing a tsunami risk zone for a small area is significant, as available tsunami inundation zone data does not give detailed information for tsunami inundation and run-up in every nested grid. Hence, this study aims to establish a tsunami risk map in the Pasir Jambak sub-district, Padang, Indonesia. The map was carried out in every nested grid point of the area and on a large scale (1:5,000). The TUNAMI N3 program was used for the simulation of the tsunami inundation. A tsunami assessment was made through simulations in nine scenarios of fault parameter data for Sipora block earthquakes. The result of the study provides a tsunami inundation map. Furthermore, this tsunami inundation map can be used for communities, local authorities, government, and others for many studies, and decision-makers can come up with mitigation plans for a small study area.

2021 ◽  
Vol 10 (1) ◽  
pp. 3438-3448
Author(s):  
T.D.C. Pushpakumara ◽  
◽  
Shohan Gamlath ◽  

Tsunami is a coastal hazard which occur due to undersea earthquakes, Meteorite falls, volcanic eruptions or even nuclear weapon operations. The tsunami hazard which occurred in December 2004 was generated due to an undersea earthquake 400m west of northern Sumatra and it inundated coastal areas of Indonesia, Sri Lanka, Thailand and India. This hazard became one of the worst disasters in the history resulting in over thirty thousand fatalities and over seventy thousand house damage in Sri Lanka. This study is focused towards creation of GIS based Tsunami risk map for Galle city which was badly hit by the 2004 Tsunami. Tsunami vulnerability was assessed using weighted overlay spatial method with input parameters of population density, sex ratio, age ratio, disability ratio and damaged building ratio. Tsunami hazard map was developed based on tsunami inundation map which was published by Coastal research and design, costal conservation and resource management department with assistant from Disaster management centre using the Cornell Multigrid Coupled Tsunami Model (COMCOT). Vulnerable and hazard maps were analysed and incorporated to develop final risk map using GIS tool. Keywords GIS; Tsunami Inundation Map; Tsunami Risk Map; Vulnerability; Disaster


2015 ◽  
Vol 43 (3) ◽  
pp. 7-14 ◽  
Author(s):  
Jim Moffatt

Purpose – This case example looks at how Deloitte Consulting applies the Three Rules synthesized by Michael Raynor and Mumtaz Ahmed based on their large-scale research project that identified patterns in the way exceptional companies think. Design/methodology/approach – The Three Rules concept is a key piece of Deloitte Consulting’s thought leadership program. So how are the three rules helping the organization perform? Now that research has shown how exceptional companies think, CEO Jim Moffatt could address the question, “Does Deloitte think like an exceptional company?” Findings – Deloitte has had success with an approach that promotes a bias towards non-price value over price and revenue over costs. Practical implications – It’s critical that all decision makers in an organization understand how decisions that are consistent with the three rules have contributed to past success as well as how they can apply the rules to difficult challenges they face today. Originality/value – This is the first case study written from a CEO’s perspective that looks at how the Three Rules approach of Michael Raynor and Mumtaz Ahmed can foster a firm’s growth and exceptional performance.


2012 ◽  
Vol 12 (1) ◽  
pp. 151-163 ◽  
Author(s):  
A. Grezio ◽  
P. Gasparini ◽  
W. Marzocchi ◽  
A. Patera ◽  
S. Tinti

Abstract. We present a first detailed tsunami risk assessment for the city of Messina where one of the most destructive tsunami inundations of the last centuries occurred in 1908. In the tsunami hazard evaluation, probabilities are calculated through a new general modular Bayesian tool for Probability Tsunami Hazard Assessment. The estimation of losses of persons and buildings takes into account data collected directly or supplied by: (i) the Italian National Institute of Statistics that provides information on the population, on buildings and on many relevant social aspects; (ii) the Italian National Territory Agency that provides updated economic values of the buildings on the basis of their typology (residential, commercial, industrial) and location (streets); and (iii) the Train and Port Authorities. For human beings, a factor of time exposition is introduced and calculated in terms of hours per day in different places (private and public) and in terms of seasons, considering that some factors like the number of tourists can vary by one order of magnitude from January to August. Since the tsunami risk is a function of the run-up levels along the coast, a variable tsunami risk zone is defined as the area along the Messina coast where tsunami inundations may occur.


2019 ◽  
Vol 125 ◽  
pp. 09005
Author(s):  
Muh Aris Marfai ◽  
Hendy Fatchurohman ◽  
Ahmad Cahyadi

In recent years, Tourism activities in Gunungkidul Coastal Area rapidly increased. A large number of tourists visiting the coast considered as elements at risk that are exposed to tsunami hazards. Disaster infrastructures provided by the government e.g. hazard maps, evacuation routes, and locations for assembly points are inadequate. The tsunami inundation models provided by the government are based on national topographic maps (RBI), resulting in inaccurate models. DEM generation using UAV Photogrammetry produces high spatial resolution data that results in more accurate tsunami inundation model. The results of the model using UAV photogrammetry are also capable of producing several inundation scenarios and determine the safe areas that can be used for temporary evacuation sites. The use of UAV photogrammetry for tsunami inundation models provides many advantages including low cost and accurate model results. Evaluation of hazard maps and assembly points using UAV Photogrammetry modeling lead to more effective and less time-consuming on the evacuation process.


2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Katsuichiro Goda ◽  
Tomohiro Yasuda ◽  
Nobuhito Mori ◽  
Ario Muhammad ◽  
Raffaele De Risi ◽  
...  

Abstract. The Nankai-Tonankai megathrust earthquake and tsunami pose significant risks to coastal communities in western and central Japan. Historically, this seismic region hosted many major earthquakes, and the current national tsunami hazard assessments in Japan consider megathrust events having moment magnitudes between 9.0 and 9.1. In responding to the lack of rigorous uncertainty analysis, this study presents an extensive tsunami hazard assessment for the Nankai-Tonankai Trough events, focusing upon the southwestern Pacific region of Japan. A set of 1,000 kinematic earthquake rupture models is generated via stochastic source modelling approaches, and Monte Carlo tsunami simulations are carried out by considering high-resolution grid data of 10-m and coastal defense structures. Significant advantages of the stochastic tsunami simulation methods include the enhanced capabilities to quantify the uncertainty associated with tsunami hazard assessments and to effectively visualize the results in an integrated manner. The results from the stochastic tsunami simulations can inform regional and local tsunami risk reduction actions in light of inevitable uncertainty associated with such probabilistic tsunami hazard assessments, and complement conventional deterministic tsunami scenarios and their hazard predictions, such as those developed by the Central Disaster Management Council of the Japanese Cabinet Office.


2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
◽  
Verna May Smith

<p>England and New Zealand introduced pay-for-performance schemes in their primary health care systems, with incentives for general practitioners to achieve improved population-based health outcomes, between 2001 and 2007. These schemes were part of health reforms to change the relationship between the state and the medical profession, giving the state increased influence over the quality and allocation of publicly funded health care. Two schemes of differing size, scope and impact were implemented. This research takes a comparative approach to exploring each policymaking process, utilising quasi-natural experimental conditions in these two Westminster governing systems to test the relevance of Kingdon’s multi-theoretic Multiple Streams Framework and other theoretical approaches to explain policy variation and change.  The research documented and analysed the agenda-setting, alternative selection and implementation phases in the two policymaking processes and identified the key drivers of policymaking in each case study. A qualitative methodology, based upon documentary analysis and semi-structured interviews with 26 decision-makers, leaders and participants, was used to develop the two case studies, providing rich descriptive details and rare insights into closed policymaking approaches as seen by the participants. From this case study evidence, themes were drawn out and reviewed for consistency with Kingdon’s Multiple Streams Framework as it has been interpreted and adapted by Zahariadis. The case study evidence and themes were considered in a framework of comparative analysis where patterns of similarity and difference were established. The utility of Kingdon’s Multiple Streams Framework in interpreting the case study evidence was assessed.  This analysis demonstrated that Kingdon’s Framework, as interpreted by Zahariadis, had high descriptive power for both case studies but failed to predict the patterns of non-incremental change observed or the importance of institutional factors such as ownership and governance arrangements for public services, interest group structure and historical antecedents seen in the two policymaking processes.  The research finds that the use of bargaining in England and not in New Zealand is the reason for major differences in speed, scope and outcomes of the two pay-for-performance schemes. Institutional structures in the general practice sub-system are therefore the primary driver of policy change and variation. These acted as enablers of non-incremental change in the English case study, providing incentives for actors individually and collectively to design and rapidly to implement a large-scale pay-for-performance scheme. The institutional features of the general practice sub-system in New Zealand acted as a constraint to the development of a large-scale scheme although non-incremental change was achieved. Phased approaches to implementation in New Zealand were necessary and slowed the delivery of outcomes from the scheme.  With respect to other drivers of policy change and variation, the role of individual actors as policy and institutional entrepreneurs was important in facilitating policy design in each country, with different types of entrepreneurs with different skills being observed at different stages of the process. These entrepreneurs were appointed and working within the bureaucracy to the direction of decision-makers in both countries. England and New Zealand shared ideas about the benefits of New Public Management approaches to public policymaking, including support for pay-for-performance approaches, and there was a shared positive socio-economic climate for increased investment in health services.  The research provides evidence that Westminster governing systems are capable of purposeful and orderly non-incremental health policy change and that Kingdon’s Multiple Streams Framework, which theorises policy formation in conditions of ambiguity, needs to be enhanced to improve its relevance for such jurisdictions. Recommendations for its enhancement are made.</p>


2014 ◽  
Vol 172 (3-4) ◽  
pp. 921-929 ◽  
Author(s):  
Derya Itir Dilmen ◽  
Serkan Kemec ◽  
Ahmet Cevdet Yalciner ◽  
Sebnem Düzgün ◽  
Andrey Zaytsev

2010 ◽  
Vol 04 (02) ◽  
pp. 73-81 ◽  
Author(s):  
YASUKO KUWATA ◽  
SHIRO TAKADA

This paper proposes a method to evaluate functionality of a business after a tsunami disaster. This method has several modules such as damage estimation of business base (building, equipments, and lifeline) caused by tsunami hazard, restoration ratio-to-time model for business base, and the functionality of the business introduced by facility restoration and its influence to the business. As a case study, the tsunami impact to industries and its subsequent restoration process were studied based on an interview survey in southern Sri Lanka after the 2004 Indian Ocean earthquake and tsunami, and the survey results were applied to the proposed model. Results of application showed that buildings and equipments were slowly restored when they were extensively damaged or flooded. Further, the business restoration depends more heavily on the business facilities restoration than the lifeline restoration, when the business facilities are flooded with tsunami inundation higher than 1 m.


2021 ◽  
Vol 925 (1) ◽  
pp. 012037
Author(s):  
Martha Alvianingsih ◽  
Willy Ivander Pradipta ◽  
Intan Hayatiningsih ◽  
Nuraini Rahma Hanifa

Abstract Pangandaran and Pananjung villages are located in the southern coast of Java Island, prone to tsunami hazard originating from a megathrust earthquake off south of Java Island. Those villages experience a tsunami earthquake on 2006 from an M7.8 earthquake. The National Center for Earthquake Studies released a map of the sources and hazards of Indonesia’s earthquake in 2017 with a potential earthquake of magnitude 8.7-9.2 in the megathrust of Java Island. This research aims to estimate the potential number of buildings and the population affected by tsunami inundation from two scenario; first scenario is based on historical event of a M7.8 intraplate earthquake, and second scenario is based on a plausible M8.7 intraplate earthquake. The first scenario tsunami modeling resulted an inundation of 108.606 ha, while in the second scenario estimate an 867.351 ha of inundation area. Building data is obtained by digitizing aerial photographs taken in November 2021. The calculation of potential affected buildings is carried out by overlaying the tsunami inundation data with the existing building data in the study area. Meanwhile, the population data used is obtained from the local government in 2021. To obtain the number of the affected population, population distribution is first carried out in each class of land cover, overlaid with the tsunami inundation data. The estimated number of buildings and population affected by scenario 1 and 2 in Pangandaran Village is 1,040 buildings along with 2,765 people, and 4,216 buildings with 11,209 people respectively. While in Pananjung Village, it is estimated a total of 149 buildings with 350 people affected, and 4,039 buildings with 9,493 people affected respectively. This indicate that scenario 2 impact is potentially 4 times greater than scenario 1 in Pangandaran village, and 27 times greater in Pananjung village, implying a different strategy of tsunami risk reduction should be taken to save more lives. The results of this study can be used as a basis for policymaking by the government in carrying out a more effective tsunami disaster mitigation efforts in Pangandaran and Pananjung Villages. This study also calls for reevaluation of coastal villages tsunami risk based on each plausible scenario.


2019 ◽  
Vol 76 ◽  
pp. 03010 ◽  
Author(s):  
Muh Aris Marfai ◽  
Sunarto ◽  
Nurul Khakim ◽  
Hendy Fatchurohman ◽  
Ahmad Cahyadi ◽  
...  

The southern coastal area of Java Island is one of the nine seismic gaps that prone to tsunamis. The entire coastline in one of the regencies, Gunungkidul, is exposed to the subduction zone in the Indian Ocean. Also, the growing tourism industries in the regency increase its vulnerability, which places most of its areas at high risk of tsunamis. This conditions are expected to increase the tsunami risk and loss potential alongside the coastal area. This research aims to model tsunami inundation and estimate the loss that caused by tsunami. Detailed DEM generated from UAV photogrammetry. Based on the model, several inundation scenario. Based on the model, the 4-m inundation did not affect a wide area. The modelling proves that the extent of tsunami-inundated areas is directly proportional to the wave height of tsunamis. The inundated area extend as the inundation scenario increase. Hilly karst topography prevent the water to inundate wider areas. The loss calculation shows that the material loss at the trading centre was relatively much higher than the other land uses because its included not only the value of the building but also the commodities and the strategic importance of their market.


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