scholarly journals Comparison of exponential time series alignment and time series alignment using artificial neural networks by example of prediction of future development of stock prices of a specific company

2019 ◽  
Vol 61 ◽  
pp. 01006 ◽  
Author(s):  
Jakub Horák ◽  
Tomáš Krulický
Keyword(s):  
Neural Networks ◽  
Time Series ◽  
Artificial Neural Networks ◽  
Stock Prices ◽  
Stock Price ◽  
Exponential Time ◽  
Stock Price Prediction ◽  
Price Prediction ◽  
Artificial Neural ◽  
Time Series Alignment

Accurate stock price prediction is very difficult in today's economy. Accurate prediction plays an important role in helping investors improve return on equity. As a result, a number of new approaches and technologies have logically evolved in recent years to predict stock prices. One is also the method of artificial neural networks, which have many advantages over conventional methods. The aim of this paper is to compare a method of exponential time series alignment and time series alignment using artificial neural networks as tools for predicting future stock price developments on the example of the company Unipetrol. Time series alignment is performed using artificial neural networks, exponential alignment of time series, and then a comparison of time series of predictions of future stock price trends predicted using the most successful neural network and price prediction calculated by exponential time series alignment is performed. Predictions for 62 business days were obtained. The realistic picture of further possible development is surprisingly given based on the exponential alignment of time series.

Integrating metaheuristics and Artificial Neural Networks for improved stock price prediction

2016 ◽  
Vol 44 ◽  
pp. 320-331 ◽  
Author(s):  
Mustafa Göçken ◽  
Mehmet Özçalıcı ◽  
Aslı Boru ◽  
Ayşe Tuğba Dosdoğru
Keyword(s):  
Neural Networks ◽  
Artificial Neural Networks ◽  
Stock Price ◽  
Stock Price Prediction ◽  
Price Prediction ◽  
Artificial Neural

scholarly journals Software Design Challenges in Time Series Prediction Systems Using Parallel Implementation of Artificial Neural Networks

2016 ◽  
Vol 2016 ◽  
pp. 1-10 ◽  
Author(s):  
Narayanan Manikandan ◽  
Srinivasan Subha
Keyword(s):  
Neural Networks ◽  
Time Series ◽  
Artificial Neural Networks ◽  
Exchange Rates ◽  
Stock Prices ◽  
Time Series Data ◽  
Financial Analysis ◽  
Parallel Implementation ◽  
Series Data ◽  
Artificial Neural

Software development life cycle has been characterized by destructive disconnects between activities like planning, analysis, design, and programming. Particularly software developed with prediction based results is always a big challenge for designers. Time series data forecasting like currency exchange, stock prices, and weather report are some of the areas where an extensive research is going on for the last three decades. In the initial days, the problems with financial analysis and prediction were solved by statistical models and methods. For the last two decades, a large number of Artificial Neural Networks based learning models have been proposed to solve the problems of financial data and get accurate results in prediction of the future trends and prices. This paper addressed some architectural design related issues for performance improvement through vectorising the strengths of multivariate econometric time series models and Artificial Neural Networks. It provides an adaptive approach for predicting exchange rates and it can be called hybrid methodology for predicting exchange rates. This framework is tested for finding the accuracy and performance of parallel algorithms used.

scholarly journals Implementasi Metode Backpropogation dengan Inisialisasi Bobot Nguyen Widrow untuk Peramalan Harga Saham

2019 ◽  
Vol 6 (1) ◽  
pp. 49
Author(s):  
Eliv Kurniawan ◽  
Hari Wibawanto ◽  
Djoko Adi Widodo
Keyword(s):  
Neural Network ◽  
Neural Networks ◽  
Artificial Neural Network ◽  
Artificial Neural Networks ◽  
Stock Prices ◽  
Stock Price ◽  
Daily Data ◽  
Backpropagation Method ◽  
Weight Initialization ◽  
Artificial Neural

<p>Jaringan saraf tiruan merupakan suatu ilmu yang terus berkembang pesat hingga saat ini. Jaringan saraf tiruan merupakan suatu ilmu komputasi yang didasarkan dan terinspirasi dari cara kerja sistem saraf manusia. Sama halnya dengan sistem saraf manusia, jaringan saraf tiruan bekerja melalui proses pembelajaran terhadap data-data yang sudah ada untuk memformulakan keluaran dari data-data baru. Jaringan saraf tiruan dengan metode backpropagation mampu melakukan peramalan untuk data nonlinear seperti bentuk data harian harga saham. Salah satu algoritma inisialisasi bobot yang dapat meningkatkan waktu eksekusi adalah nguyen-widrow. Pada penelitian ini akan dilakukan implementasi metode backpropagation dengan inisialisasi bobot nguyen widrow untuk meramalkan harga saham. Proses implementasi melalui 3 tahapan, yaitu preprosesing data, pelatihan jaringan, dan pengujian jaringan. Hasil dari penelitian ini menunjukkan bahwa pelatihan jaringan saraf tiruan dengan jumlah dataset yang banyak membutuhkan perhitungan yang kompleks, sehingga jaringan saraf tiruan dengan arsitektur jaringan yang sederhana kurang efektif dan dapat terjebak pada titik lokal minimum. Hasil peramalan untuk harga close saham BBCA.JK memiliki nilai MAPE 0,85% dan untuk harga close saham AALI.JK memiliki nilai MAPE sebesar 1,84%.</p><p><em><strong>Abstract</strong></em></p><p><em>Artificial neural network is a hot topic and invite a lot of admiration in the last decade. Artificial Neural Network is one of the artificial representations of the humans brain who always try to simulate the learning process of the humans brain. Artificial neural network with backpropagation method is able to forecast nonlinear data such as daily data form stock price. One of the weight initialization algorithms that can be increase the execution time is nguyen-widrow. In this research will be implemented backpropagation method with nguyen widrow weight initialization to forecast stock prices. The process of implementation through 3 stages, that is preprosesing data, training, and testing or simulate. The results of this research indicate that the training of artificial neural networks with many datasets required a complex calculations, so the artificial neural network with simple architectures is less effective and can get stuck at minimum local points. The results forecasting for the close price of BBCA.JK have a MAPE value 0.85% and for the close price of AALI.JK have 1.84% of MAPE value</em></p>

Predicting Stock Price Using Artificial Neural Networks

2019 ◽  
Vol 118 (8) ◽  
pp. 96-117
Author(s):  
Dr. Nigama. K ◽  
Dr. R Alamelu ◽  
Dr. S. Selvabaskar ◽  
Dr. K.G. Prasanna Sivagami
Keyword(s):  
Neural Networks ◽  
Artificial Neural Networks ◽  
Stock Market ◽  
Stock Prices ◽  
Stock Price ◽  
Explicit Knowledge ◽  
Stock Exchange ◽  
Market Price ◽  
Financial Investment ◽  
Artificial Neural

Stock market facilitates the economic activities that contribute to a nation’s growth and prosperity. This is viewed as one of the lucrative avenues for financial investment. Although the stock market is a thrilling and potential opportunity to grow one’s money, it brings along with it certain challenges, because, there is no universal rule that suggests profitable investments.  Investors, corporate and advisors employ several techniques like fundamental and technical analysis, trend analysis and other analysis to suggest stocks that will give best yields but such tools are neither consistent nor foolproof in the prediction of stock prices. But human exertions to convert the tacit knowledge into explicit knowledge has never found any alternate. More, the uncertainties, more the efforts to know them with certainty.  Digital economy with its advanced technological tools aids the pursuit of not only understanding uncertainties but also predicting the future with maximum precision. The most prominent techniques in the technological realm includes the usage of artificial neural networks (ANNs) and Genetic Algorithms. This paper discusses the stock prices forecasting ability of Bombay stock exchange trend using genetically evolved neural networks, the input being the closing price of the previous five years and output being the price for the next day. Risk (Standard deviation), Average Return, variance and Market price are chosen as indicators of the performance. The objective of this study is to give an overview of the application of artificial neural network in predicting stock market.

scholarly journals Stock Price Prediction Using Time Series

2021 ◽  
Vol 9 (12) ◽  
pp. 375-381
Author(s):  
Sai Manoj Cheruvu
Keyword(s):  
Time Series ◽  
Stock Prices ◽  
Stock Price ◽  
Financial Sector ◽  
Stock Price Prediction ◽  
Price Prediction ◽  
Prediction Time ◽  
A Company ◽  
Series Technique

Abstract: Predicting Stock price of a company has been a challenge for analysts due to the fluctuations and its changing nature with respect to time. This paper attempts to predict the stock prices using Time series technique that proposes to observe various changes in a given variable with respect to time and is appropriate for making predictions in financial sector [1] as the stock prices are time variant. Keywords: Stock prices, Analysis, Fluctuations, Prediction, Time series, Time variant

scholarly journals Investor Sentiment Combined with Multisource Information to Predict Stock Prices: An Analysis of China’s A-Share Market

2021 ◽  
Vol 2021 ◽  
pp. 1-9
Author(s):  
Xin Huang ◽  
Huilin Song
Keyword(s):  
Social Media ◽  
Time Series ◽  
News Media ◽  
Multilayer Perceptron ◽  
Stock Prices ◽  
Stock Price ◽  
Investor Sentiment ◽  
Prediction Method ◽  
Stock Price Prediction ◽  
Price Prediction

Investor sentiment has been widely used in the research of the stock market, and how to accurately measure investor sentiment is still being explored. With the rise of social media, investor sentiment is no longer only influenced by macroeconomic data and news media, but also guided by We-Media and fragmented information. We take the data of China A-shares from January 2020 to December 2020 as the research object and propose a stock price prediction method that combines investor sentiment with multisource information. Firstly, the sentiment of macroeconomic data, brokerage research reports, news, and We-Media is calculated, respectively, and then the investor sentiment vector combining multisource information is obtained by the multilayer perceptron. Finally, the LSTM model is used to represent the stock time series characteristics. The results show that (1) the proposed algorithm is superior to the benchmark algorithm in terms of accuracy and F1-score, (2) investor sentiment vector can effectively measure the investment sentiment of stocks, and (3) compared with vector concatenation, multilayer perceptron can better represent investor sentiment.

scholarly journals PERAMALAN HARGA SAHAM MENGGUNAKAN JARINGAN SYARAF TIRUAN SECARA SUPERVISED LEARNING DENGAN ALGORITMA BACKPROPAGATION

2017 ◽  
Vol 3 (2) ◽  
Author(s):  
Eko Riyanto
Keyword(s):  
Neural Network ◽  
Artificial Neural Network ◽  
Supervised Learning ◽  
Stock Prices ◽  
Stock Price ◽  
Price Forecasting ◽  
Stock Price Forecasting ◽  
Stock Price Prediction ◽  
Price Prediction ◽  
Artificial Neural

Stock price prediction is useful for investors to see how the prospects of a company's stock investment in the future. Stock price prediction can be used to anticipate the deviation of stock prices. It can also helps investors in decision making. Artificial Neural Networks do not require mathematical models but data from problems to be solved. Information is conveyed through the data, and the Artificial Neural Network filters the information through training. Therefore, Artificial Neural Network is appropriate to solve the problem of stock price prediction.            Learning method that will be used to predict stock price is Supervised Learning with Backpropagation algorithm. With this algorithm, networks can be trained using stock price data from the previous time, classify it and adjust network link weight as new input and forecast future stock prices. By using ANN, time series prediction is more accurate. After analyzing the problem of stock price movement system, the writer can know the pattern of what variables will be taken for further insert into the stock price forecasting system.            This application can be used for stock price forecasting technique, so it will be useful for beginner investor as well as advanced investor as reference to invest in capital market. Implementing supervised learning backpropagation method will get accurate forecasting results more than 98%.Keyword - artificial neural network, stock, backpropagation.

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