scholarly journals Nowcast and forecast of galactic cosmic ray (GCR) and solar energetic particle (SEP) fluxes in magnetosphere and ionosphere – Extension of WASAVIES to Earth orbit

2019 ◽  
Vol 9 ◽  
pp. A9 ◽  
Author(s):  
Tatsuhiko Sato ◽  
Ryuho Kataoka ◽  
Daikou Shiota ◽  
Yûki Kubo ◽  
Mamoru Ishii ◽  
...  

Real-time estimation of cosmic-ray fluxes on satellite orbits is one of the greatest challenges in space weather research. Therefore, we develop a system for nowcasting and forecasting the galactic cosmic ray (GCR) and solar energetic particle (SEP) fluxes at any location in the magnetosphere and ionosphere during ground-level enhancement (GLE) events. It is an extended version of the WArning System for AVIation Exposure to SEP (WASAVIES), which can determine event profiles by using real-time data of the count rates of several neutron monitors (NMs) at the ground level and high-energy proton fluxes observed by Geostationary Operational Environmental Satellites (GOES) satellites. The extended version, called WASAVIES-EO, can calculate the GCR and SEP fluxes outside a satellite based on its two-line element (TLE) data. Moreover, organ absorbed-dose and dose-equivalent rates of astronauts in the International Space Station (ISS) can be estimated using the system, considering its shielding effect. The accuracy of WASAVIES-EO was validated based on the dose rates measured in ISS, as well as based on high-energy proton fluxes observed by POES satellites during large GLEs that have occurred in the 21st century. Agreement between the nowcast and forecast dose rates in ISS, especially in terms of their temporal structures, indicates the usefulness of the developed system for future mission operations.

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Johannes Marquardt ◽  
Bernd Heber ◽  
Robert Elftmann ◽  
Robert Wimmer-Schweingruber

<p>Anomalous cosmic rays (ACRs) are well-suited to probe the transport conditions of energetic particles in the innermost heliosphere. We revisit the HELIOS Experiment 6 (E6) data in view of the upcoming Solar Orbiter Energetic Particle Detector (EPD) suite that will perform measurements during a comparable solar minimum within the same distance.</p><p>Adapting the HELIOS energy ranges for oxygen and carbon to the ones given by the High Energy Telescope (HET) allows us to determine predictions for the upcoming measurements but also to put constraints on particle transport models that provide new insight into the boundary conditions close to the Sun.</p><p>We present here the adapted energy spectra of galactic cosmic ray (GCR) carbon and oxygen, as well as of ACR oxygen during solar quiet time periods between 1975 to 1977. Due to the higher energy threshold of HET in comparison to E6 gradients of about 20% at 15 MeV/nucleon are expected. The largest ACR gradient measured by E6 was obtained to be about 75% between 9 and 13 MeV/nucleon and 0.4 AU and 1 AU.</p>


2011 ◽  
Vol 7 (S286) ◽  
pp. 195-199
Author(s):  
B. Vargas-Cárdenas ◽  
J. F. Valdés-Galicia

AbstractWe performed a search for ground level solar cosmic ray enhancements on the full five minute database of the Mexico City neutron monitor using wavelet filters and two different statistical tests. We present a detailed analysis of the time series of November 2, 1992, where we found a previously unreported increment matching the onset time of the impulsive phase of the Ground Level Enhancement No. 54, thus providing evidence of an effective detection of high energy solar cosmic rays. This technique may help to find still undiscovered GLE signals in the Worldwide Neutron Monitor Database, to refine GLE spectra and, probably, to find a relationship between the latter and the solar cycle.


2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Zigong Xu ◽  
Johan L. Freiherr von Forstner ◽  
Patrick Kühl ◽  
Nils Janitzek ◽  
César Martín ◽  
...  

<p>As part of the Energetic Particle Detector (EPD) suite onboard Solar Orbiter, the High Energy Telescope has been launched on its mission to the Sun on February 9, 2020, and has been measuring energetic particles since it was first switched on about two weeks after launch. Using their double-ended telescopes, the two HET units provide measurements of ions above 7 MeV/nuc and electrons above 300 keV in four viewing directions. HET observed several Solar Energetic Particle (SEPs) events during the cruise phase, including the first one with a broad energy coverage (up to ~100MeV) on 29 Nov 2020. Being the first larger SEP event in a phase of rising solar activity, these measurements have already attracted extensive attention of the community. Apart from the SEPs, the HET can be used to observe the Galactic cosmic radiation (GCR) and its temporal variation. The GCR measurements can be also utilized for the validation of the energy response of HET. The overall spectra observed by HET are as expected, except for calibration issues in some specific energy bins that we are still investigating. Finally, the HET also observed several Forbush Decreases (FD), i.e. cosmic ray decreases caused by CMEs and their embedded magnetic field. Here, the capabilities and data products of HET, as well as first measurements of SEPs, GCR and FDs are presented. </p>


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