Interpretable machine learning for demand modeling with high-dimensional data using Gradient Boosting Machines and Shapley values

2020 ◽  
Vol 19 (5) ◽  
pp. 355-364
Author(s):  
Evgeny A. Antipov ◽  
Elena B. Pokryshevskaya
2021 ◽  
Vol 11 (2) ◽  
pp. 472
Author(s):  
Hyeongmin Cho ◽  
Sangkyun Lee

Machine learning has been proven to be effective in various application areas, such as object and speech recognition on mobile systems. Since a critical key to machine learning success is the availability of large training data, many datasets are being disclosed and published online. From a data consumer or manager point of view, measuring data quality is an important first step in the learning process. We need to determine which datasets to use, update, and maintain. However, not many practical ways to measure data quality are available today, especially when it comes to large-scale high-dimensional data, such as images and videos. This paper proposes two data quality measures that can compute class separability and in-class variability, the two important aspects of data quality, for a given dataset. Classical data quality measures tend to focus only on class separability; however, we suggest that in-class variability is another important data quality factor. We provide efficient algorithms to compute our quality measures based on random projections and bootstrapping with statistical benefits on large-scale high-dimensional data. In experiments, we show that our measures are compatible with classical measures on small-scale data and can be computed much more efficiently on large-scale high-dimensional datasets.


2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Xiao Lai ◽  
Pu Tian

AbstractSupervised machine learning, especially deep learning based on a wide variety of neural network architectures, have contributed tremendously to fields such as marketing, computer vision and natural language processing. However, development of un-supervised machine learning algorithms has been a bottleneck of artificial intelligence. Clustering is a fundamental unsupervised task in many different subjects. Unfortunately, no present algorithm is satisfactory for clustering of high dimensional data with strong nonlinear correlations. In this work, we propose a simple and highly efficient hierarchical clustering algorithm based on encoding by composition rank vectors and tree structure, and demonstrate its utility with clustering of protein structural domains. No record comparison, which is an expensive and essential common step to all present clustering algorithms, is involved. Consequently, it achieves linear time and space computational complexity hierarchical clustering, thus applicable to arbitrarily large datasets. The key factor in this algorithm is definition of composition, which is dependent upon physical nature of target data and therefore need to be constructed case by case. Nonetheless, the algorithm is general and applicable to any high dimensional data with strong nonlinear correlations. We hope this algorithm to inspire a rich research field of encoding based clustering well beyond composition rank vector trees.


2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Seong Hwan Kim ◽  
Eun-Tae Jeon ◽  
Sungwook Yu ◽  
Kyungmi O ◽  
Chi Kyung Kim ◽  
...  

Abstract We aimed to develop a novel prediction model for early neurological deterioration (END) based on an interpretable machine learning (ML) algorithm for atrial fibrillation (AF)-related stroke and to evaluate the prediction accuracy and feature importance of ML models. Data from multi-center prospective stroke registries in South Korea were collected. After stepwise data preprocessing, we utilized logistic regression, support vector machine, extreme gradient boosting, light gradient boosting machine (LightGBM), and multilayer perceptron models. We used the Shapley additive explanations (SHAP) method to evaluate feature importance. Of the 3,623 stroke patients, the 2,363 who had arrived at the hospital within 24 hours of symptom onset and had available information regarding END were included. Of these, 318 (13.5%) had END. The LightGBM model showed the highest area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (0.778, 95% CI, 0.726 - 0.830). The feature importance analysis revealed that fasting glucose level and the National Institute of Health Stroke Scale score were the most influential factors. Among ML algorithms, the LightGBM model was particularly useful for predicting END, as it revealed new and diverse predictors. Additionally, the SHAP method can be adjusted to individualize the features’ effects on the predictive power of the model.


2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Mu Yue

In high-dimensional data, penalized regression is often used for variable selection and parameter estimation. However, these methods typically require time-consuming cross-validation methods to select tuning parameters and retain more false positives under high dimensionality. This chapter discusses sparse boosting based machine learning methods in the following high-dimensional problems. First, a sparse boosting method to select important biomarkers is studied for the right censored survival data with high-dimensional biomarkers. Then, a two-step sparse boosting method to carry out the variable selection and the model-based prediction is studied for the high-dimensional longitudinal observations measured repeatedly over time. Finally, a multi-step sparse boosting method to identify patient subgroups that exhibit different treatment effects is studied for the high-dimensional dense longitudinal observations. This chapter intends to solve the problem of how to improve the accuracy and calculation speed of variable selection and parameter estimation in high-dimensional data. It aims to expand the application scope of sparse boosting and develop new methods of high-dimensional survival analysis, longitudinal data analysis, and subgroup analysis, which has great application prospects.


2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Xiaoyong Zhao ◽  
Ningning Wang

Abstract Background: According to the World Health Organization (WHO), infectious diseases continue to one of the leading causes of death worldwide. Since the core microbiota flora of humans is largely diverse and horizontal gene transfer (HGT), it is very challenging to determine whether a particular bacterial strain is commensal or pathogenic to humans. With the latest advances in next-generation sequencing (NGS) technology, bioinformatics tools and techniques using NGS data have increasingly been used for the diagnosis and monitoring of infectious diseases. Even if the biological background is not available, the machine learning method can still infer the pathogenic phenotype from the NGS readings, independent of the database of known organisms, and being studied intensively.However, previous methods have not considered opportunistic pathogenic and interpretability of black box model, are not well suited for clinical requirements. Results:In this study, we proposed a novel interpretable machine learning approach (IMLA) to identify the pathogenicity of bacterial genomes: human pathogens (HP), opportunistic pathogenicity (OHP) or non-pathogenicity(NHP), then use the following model-agnostic interpretation methods to interpret model: feature importance, accumulated local effects and Shapley values, due to the model interpretability is essential for healthcare applications. To our knowledge, our paper is the first attempt to infer opportunistic pathogenicity and explain the model. Conclusions: According to the simulation results, our approach IMLA can be a great addition to detect novel pathogens. Keywords: interpretable; machine learning; bacterial pathogen;


2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Herdiantri Sufriyana ◽  
Yu Wei Wu ◽  
Emily Chia-Yu Su

Abstract This protocol aims to develop, validate, and deploy a prediction model using high dimensional data by both human and machine learning. The applicability is intended for clinical prediction in healthcare providers, including but not limited to those using medical histories from electronic health records. This protocol applies diverse approaches to improve both predictive performance and interpretability while maintaining the generalizability of model evaluation. However, some steps require expensive computational capacity; otherwise, these will take longer time. The key stages consist of designs of data collection and analysis, feature discovery and quality control, and model development, validation, and deployment.


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