scholarly journals Age of a charcoal band in fluvial sediments, Keiyasi, Sigatoka Valley, Fiji: possible indicator of a severe drought throughout the Southwest Pacific 4500-5000 years ago

2001 ◽  
Vol 19 (1) ◽  
pp. 5 ◽  
Author(s):  
P. D. Nunn ◽  
R. R. Thaman ◽  
L. Duffy ◽  
S. Finikaso ◽  
N. Ram ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
El Niño ◽  
New Caledonia ◽  
El Nino ◽  
Severe Drought ◽  
Fluvial Sediments ◽  
Last Interglacial ◽  
Southwest Pacific ◽  
The Past ◽  
El Niño Event ◽  
Local Extirpation

A 14C date for a charcoal band near the base of the High (10 m) Terrace in the middle Sigatoka Valley (western Viti Levu Island, Fiji) shows that this terrace accumulated mostly within the past 4-5000 years showing it to be a Holocene rather than a Pleistocene (Last Interglacial) landform as previously thought. The charcoal band also indicates that there was extensive, perhaps catastrophic, burning of forests and perhaps an associated local extirpation/extinction of forest taxa. The notion that humans may have been responsible for the forest burning represented by this charcoal band is rejected on account of its age predating known human arrival by at least one thousand years. Attention is drawn to the contemporaneity of this charcoal band and those found in Bonatoa Bog (southeast Viti Levu Island) and in New Caledonia, some 1300 km southwest of Fiji, suggesting that catastrophic forest burning during this period may have been widespread and a regionwide response to a period of prolonged aridity 4500-5000 years ago, possibly associated with a unusually severe El Niño event.

Volcanoes and ENSO over the Past Millennium

2008 ◽  
Vol 21 (13) ◽  
pp. 3134-3148 ◽  
Author(s):  
Julien Emile-Geay ◽  
Richard Seager ◽  
Mark A. Cane ◽  
Edward R. Cook ◽  
Gerald H. Haug
Keyword(s):  
El Niño ◽  
El Nino ◽  
Volcanic Eruptions ◽  
Explosive Volcanism ◽  
The Past ◽  
El Niño Event ◽  
Volcanic Forcing ◽  
El Niño Events ◽  
Past Millennium ◽  
El Nino Events

Abstract The controversial claim that El Niño events might be partially caused by radiative forcing due to volcanic aerosols is reassessed. Building on the work of Mann et al., estimates of volcanic forcing over the past millennium and a climate model of intermediate complexity are used to draw a diagram of El Niño likelihood as a function of the intensity of volcanic forcing. It is shown that in the context of this model, only eruptions larger than that of Mt. Pinatubo (1991, peak dimming of about 3.7 W m−2) can shift the likelihood and amplitude of an El Niño event above the level of the model’s internal variability. Explosive volcanism cannot be said to trigger El Niño events per se, but it is found to raise their likelihood by 50% on average, also favoring higher amplitudes. This reconciles, on one hand, the demonstration by Adams et al. of a statistical relationship between explosive volcanism and El Niño and, on the other hand, the ability to predict El Niño events of the last 148 yr without knowledge of volcanic forcing. The authors then focus on the strongest eruption of the millennium (A.D. 1258), and show that it is likely to have favored the occurrence of a moderate-to-strong El Niño event in the midst of prevailing La Niña–like conditions induced by increased solar activity during the well-documented Medieval Climate Anomaly. Compiling paleoclimate data from a wide array of sources, a number of important hydroclimatic consequences for neighboring areas is documented. The authors propose, in particular, that the event briefly interrupted a solar-induced megadrought in the southwestern United States. Most of the time, however, volcanic eruptions are found to be too small to significantly affect ENSO statistics.

scholarly journals Impact of Severe Drought during the Strong 2015/2016 El Nino on the Phenology and Survival of Secondary Dry Dipterocarp Species in Western Thailand

Forests ◽  
2019 ◽  
Vol 10 (11) ◽  
pp. 967
Author(s):  
Rungnapa Kaewthongrach ◽  
Yann Vitasse ◽  
Taninnuch Lamjiak ◽  
Amnat Chidthaisong
Keyword(s):  
El Niño ◽  
Tree Mortality ◽  
Secondary Forest ◽  
El Nino ◽  
Leaf Phenology ◽  
Severe Drought ◽  
Deciduous Species ◽  
El Niño Event ◽  
El Niño Events ◽  
El Nino Events

Secondary forest areas are increasing worldwide and understanding how these forests interact with climate change including frequent and extreme events becomes increasingly important. This study aims to investigate the effects of the strong 2015/2016 El Niño-induced drought on species-specific leaf phenology, dieback and tree mortality in a secondary dry dipterocarp forest (DDF) in western Thailand. During the 2015/2016 El Niño event, rainfall and soil water content were lower than 25 mm and 5% during 5–6 consecutive months. The dry season was 3–4 months longer during the El Niño than during non-El Niño events. We found that this prolonged drought induced the earlier shedding and a delay in leaf emergence of the DDF. The deciduousness period was also longer during the El Niño event (5 months instead of 2–3 months during non-El Niño event). We found that the DDF species showed different phenological responses and sensitivities to the El Niño-induced drought. The leaf phenology of stem succulent species Lannea coromandelica (Houtt.) Merr. and a complete deciduous species with low wood density. Sindora siamensis Teijsm. ex Miq. was only slightly affected by the El Niño-induced drought. Conversely, a semi-deciduous species such as Dipterocarpus obtusifolius Teijsm. ex Miq. showed a higher degree of deciduousness during the El Niño compared to non-El Niño events. Our results also highlight that dieback and mortality during El Niño were increased by 45 and 50%, respectively, compared to non-El Niño events, pointing at the importance of such events to shape DDF ecosystems.

scholarly journals Tropical forests did not recover from the strong 2015–2016 El Niño event

2020 ◽  
Vol 6 (6) ◽  
pp. eaay4603 ◽  
Author(s):  
Jean-Pierre Wigneron ◽  
Lei Fan ◽  
Philippe Ciais ◽  
Ana Bastos ◽  
Martin Brandt ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Tropical Forests ◽  
El Niño ◽  
El Nino ◽  
Low Frequency ◽  
Climatic Conditions ◽  
Carbon Stocks ◽  
Severe Drought ◽  
Carryover Effects ◽  
El Niño Event ◽  
Tropical Vegetation

Severe drought and extreme heat associated with the 2015–2016 El Niño event have led to large carbon emissions from the tropical vegetation to the atmosphere. With the return to normal climatic conditions in 2017, tropical forest aboveground carbon (AGC) stocks are expected to partly recover due to increased productivity, but the intensity and spatial distribution of this recovery are unknown. We used low-frequency microwave satellite data (L-VOD) to feature precise monitoring of AGC changes and show that the AGC recovery of tropical ecosystems was slow and that by the end of 2017, AGC had not reached predrought levels of 2014. From 2014 to 2017, tropical AGC stocks decreased by 1.31.21.5 Pg C due to persistent AGC losses in Africa (−0.9−1.1−0.8 Pg C) and America (−0.5−0.6−0.4 Pg C). Pantropically, drylands recovered their carbon stocks to pre–El Niño levels, but African and American humid forests did not, suggesting carryover effects from enhanced forest mortality.

scholarly journals Forecasting the Hydroclimatic Signature of the 2015/16 El Niño Event on the Western United States

2017 ◽  
Vol 18 (1) ◽  
pp. 177-186 ◽  
Author(s):  
N. Wanders ◽  
A. Bachas ◽  
X. G. He ◽  
H. Huang ◽  
A. Koppa ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
Pacific Northwest ◽  
El Niño ◽  
El Nino ◽  
Western United States ◽  
Fire Season ◽  
Severe Drought ◽  
Forecast Performance ◽  
The North ◽  
El Niño Event

Abstract Dry conditions in 2013–16 in much of the western United States were responsible for severe drought and led to an exceptional fire season in the Pacific Northwest in 2015. Winter 2015/16 was forecasted to relieve drought in the southern portion of the region as a result of increased precipitation due to a very strong El Niño signal. A student forecasting challenge is summarized in which forecasts of winter hydroclimate across the western United States were made on 1 January 2016 for the winter hydroclimate using several dynamical and statistical forecast methods. They show that the precipitation forecasts had a large spread and none were skillful, while anomalously high observed temperatures were forecasted with a higher skill and precision. The poor forecast performance, particularly for precipitation, is traceable to high uncertainty in the North American Multi-Model Ensemble (NMME) forecast, which appears to be related to the inability of the models to predict an atmospheric blocking pattern over the region. It is found that strong El Niño sensitivities in dynamical models resulted in an overprediction of precipitation in the southern part of the domain. The results suggest the need for a more detailed attribution study of the anomalous meteorological patterns of the 2015/16 El Niño event compared to previous major events.

scholarly journals Species-Specific Shifts in Diurnal Sap Velocity Dynamics and Hysteretic Behavior of Ecophysiological Variables During the 2015–2016 El Niño Event in the Amazon Forest

2019 ◽  
Vol 10 ◽  
Author(s):  
Bruno O. Gimenez ◽  
Kolby J. Jardine ◽  
Niro Higuchi ◽  
Robinson I. Negrón-Juárez ◽  
Israel de Jesus Sampaio-Filho ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
El Niño ◽  
El Nino ◽  
Hysteretic Behavior ◽  
Amazon Forest ◽  
El Niño Event ◽  
Species Specific

scholarly journals Declines and recovery in endangered Galapagos pinnipeds during the El Niño event

2021 ◽  
Vol 11 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Diego Páez-Rosas ◽  
Jorge Torres ◽  
Eduardo Espinoza ◽  
Adrian Marchetti ◽  
Harvey Seim ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
El Niño ◽  
Environmental Variability ◽  
El Nino ◽  
Population Decline ◽  
Annual Rate ◽  
Population Fluctuations ◽  
Galapagos Archipelago ◽  
Population Decrease ◽  
El Niño Event ◽  
Zalophus Wollebaeki

AbstractCurrently, the Galapagos sea lion (GSL, Zalophus wollebaeki) and Galapagos fur seal (GFS, Arctocephalus galapagoensis) are among the most important endemic species for conservation in the Galapagos Archipelago. Both are classified as “Endangered” since their populations have undergone drastic declines over the last several decades. In this study we estimated the abundance of both otariids, and their population trends based using counts conducted between 2014 and 2018 in all their rookeries, and we analyzed the influence of environmental variability on pup production. The GSL population size in 2018 in the archipelago was estimated to be between 17,000 to 24,000 individuals and has increased at an average annual rate of 1% over the last five years after applying correction factors. The highest number of GSL counted in the archipelago was in 2014 followed by a population decline of 23.8% in 2015 that was associated with the El Niño event that occurred during that year. Following this event, the population increased mainly in the northern, central and southeastern rookeries. The GSL pup abundance showed a decreasing trend with the increase in intensity of the El Niño. The GFS population in 2018 was counted in 3,093 individuals and has increased at an annual rate of 3% from 2014 to 2018. A high number of GFS counted in 2014 was followed by a population decrease of 38% in 2015, mainly in the western rookeries. There was interannual population fluctuations and different growth trends among regions of the archipelago. GSL and GFS pup abundance has a strong decreasing tendency with the increase in the subthermocline temperature (ST) and the El Niño 1 + 2 index. Our results provide evidence that both species are highly vulnerable to periodic oceanographic-atmospheric events in the Galapagos Archipelago which impact prey abundance and the flow of energy in the unique Galapagos ecosystem.

scholarly journals Tropical cyclone contribution to extreme rainfall over southwest Pacific Island nations

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Anil Deo ◽  
Savin S. Chand ◽  
Hamish Ramsay ◽  
Neil J. Holbrook ◽  
Simon McGree ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Tropical Cyclone ◽  
El Niño ◽  
El Nino ◽  
Extreme Rainfall ◽  
Pacific Island ◽  
Extreme Rainfall Events ◽  
Rainfall Events ◽  
Southwest Pacific ◽  
Inactive Phase ◽  
Pacific Island Nations

AbstractSouthwest Pacific nations are among some of the worst impacted and most vulnerable globally in terms of tropical cyclone (TC)-induced flooding and accompanying risks. This study objectively quantifies the fractional contribution of TCs to extreme rainfall (hereafter, TC contributions) in the context of climate variability and change. We show that TC contributions to extreme rainfall are substantially enhanced during active phases of the Madden–Julian Oscillation and by El Niño conditions (particularly over the eastern southwest Pacific region); this enhancement is primarily attributed to increased TC activity during these event periods. There are also indications of increasing intensities of TC-induced extreme rainfall events over the past few decades. A key part of this work involves development of sophisticated Bayesian regression models for individual island nations in order to better understand the synergistic relationships between TC-induced extreme rainfall and combinations of various climatic drivers that modulate the relationship. Such models are found to be very useful for not only assessing probabilities of TC- and non-TC induced extreme rainfall events but also evaluating probabilities of extreme rainfall for cases with different underlying climatic conditions. For example, TC-induced extreme rainfall probability over Samoa can vary from ~ 95 to ~ 75% during a La Niña period, if it coincides with an active or inactive phase of the MJO, and can be reduced to ~ 30% during a combination of El Niño period and inactive phase of the MJO. Several other such cases have been assessed for different island nations, providing information that have potentially important implications for planning and preparing for TC risks in vulnerable Pacific Island nations.

scholarly journals Impact of the 2015 El Nino event on winter air quality in China

2016 ◽  
Vol 6 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Luyu Chang ◽  
Jianming Xu ◽  
Xuexi Tie ◽  
Jianbin Wu
Keyword(s):  
Air Quality ◽  
El Niño ◽  
El Nino ◽  
El Niño Event

Summer Cooling Driven by Large Volcanic Eruptions over the Tibetan Plateau

2018 ◽  
Vol 31 (24) ◽  
pp. 9869-9879 ◽  
Author(s):  
Jianping Duan ◽  
Lun Li ◽  
Zhuguo Ma ◽  
Jan Esper ◽  
Ulf Büntgen ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Tibetan Plateau ◽  
El Niño ◽  
El Nino ◽  
Volcanic Eruptions ◽  
The Tibetan Plateau ◽  
Temperature Deviation ◽  
El Niño Event ◽  
El Niño Events ◽  
Large Volcanic Eruptions ◽  
El Nino Events

Large volcanic eruptions may cause abrupt summer cooling over large parts of the globe. However, no comparable imprint has been found on the Tibetan Plateau (TP). Here, we introduce a 400-yr-long temperature-sensitive network of 17 tree-ring maximum latewood density sites from the TP that demonstrates that the effects of tropical eruptions on the TP are generally greater than those of extratropical eruptions. Moreover, we found that large tropical eruptions accompanied by subsequent El Niño events caused less summer cooling than those that occurred without El Niño association. Superposed epoch analysis (SEA) based on 27 events, including 14 tropical eruptions and 13 extratropical eruptions, shows that the summer cooling driven by extratropical eruptions is insignificant on the TP, while significant summer temperature decreases occur subsequent to tropical eruptions. Further analysis of the TP August–September temperature responses reveals a significant postvolcanic cooling only when no El Niño event occurred. However, there is no such cooling for all other situations, that is, tropical eruptions together with a subsequent El Niño event, as well as extratropical eruptions regardless of the occurrence of an El Niño event. The averaged August–September temperature deviation ( Tdev) following 10 large tropical eruptions without a subsequent El Niño event is up to −0.48° ± 0.19°C (with respect to the preceding 5-yr mean), whereas the temperature deviation following 4 large tropical eruptions with an El Niño association is approximately 0.23° ± 0.16°C. These results indicate a mitigation effect of El Niño events on the TP temperature response to large tropical eruptions. The possible mechanism is that El Niño events can weaken the Indian summer monsoon with a subsequent decrease in rainfall and cooling effect, which may lead to a relatively high temperature on the TP, one of the regions affected by the Indian summer monsoon.

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