scholarly journals Wildland surface fire spread modelling, 1990 - 2007. 2: Empirical and quasi-empirical models

2009 ◽  
Vol 18 (4) ◽  
pp. 369 ◽  
Author(s):  
Andrew L. Sullivan

In recent years, advances in computational power have led to an increase in attempts to model the behaviour of wildland fires and to simulate their spread across landscape. The present series of articles endeavours to comprehensively survey and précis all types of surface fire spread models developed during the period 1990–2007. The current paper surveys models of an empirical or quasi-empirical nature. These models are based on the statistical analysis of experimentally obtained data with or without some physical framework for the basis of the relations. Other papers in the series review models of a physical or quasi-physical nature, and mathematical analogues and simulation models. The main relations of empirical models are those of wind speed and fuel moisture content with rate of forward spread. The focus of the discussion is on the treatment of the wind speed and fuel moisture functions by the models.

2009 ◽  
Vol 18 (6) ◽  
pp. 698 ◽  
Author(s):  
Paulo M. Fernandes ◽  
Hermínio S. Botelho ◽  
Francisco C. Rego ◽  
Carlos Loureiro

An experimental burning program took place in maritime pine (Pinus pinaster Ait.) stands in Portugal to increase the understanding of surface fire behaviour under mild weather. The spread rate and flame geometry of the forward and backward sections of a line-ignited fire front were measured in 94 plots 10–15 m wide. Measured head fire rate of spread, flame length and Byram’s fire intensity varied respectively in the intervals of 0.3–13.9 m min–1, 0.1–4.2 m and 30–3527 kW m–1. Fire behaviour was modelled through an empirical approach. Rate of forward fire spread was described as a function of surface wind speed, terrain slope, moisture content of fine dead surface fuel, and fuel height, while back fire spread rate was correlated with fuel moisture content and cover of understorey vegetation. Flame dimensions were related to Byram’s fire intensity but relationships with rate of spread and fine dead surface fuel load and moisture are preferred, particularly for the head fire. The equations are expected to be more reliable when wind speed and slope are less than 8 km h–1 and 15°, and when fuel moisture content is higher than 12%. The results offer a quantitative basis for prescribed fire management.


2009 ◽  
Vol 18 (4) ◽  
pp. 349 ◽  
Author(s):  
Andrew L. Sullivan

In recent years, advances in computational power have led to an increase in attempts to model the behaviour of wildland fires and to simulate their spread across the landscape. The present series of articles endeavours to comprehensively survey and précis all types of surface fire spread models developed during the period 1990–2007, providing a useful starting point for those readers interested in recent modelling activities. The current paper surveys models of a physical or quasi-physical nature. These models are based on the fundamental chemistry and physics, or physics alone, of combustion and fire spread. Other papers in the series review models of an empirical or quasi-empirical nature, and mathematical analogues and simulation models. Many models are extensions or refinements of models developed before 1990. Where this is the case, these models are also discussed but in much less detail.


2009 ◽  
Vol 18 (4) ◽  
pp. 387 ◽  
Author(s):  
Andrew L. Sullivan

In recent years, advances in computational power have led to an increase in attempts to model the behaviour of wildland fires and to simulate their spread across landscape. The present series of articles endeavours to comprehensively survey and précis all types of surface fire spread models developed during the period 1990–2007. The present paper surveys models of a simulation or mathematical analogue nature. Most simulation models are implementations of existing empirical or quasi-empirical models and their primary function is to convert these generally one-dimensional models to two dimensions and then simulate the propagation of a fire perimeter across a modelled landscape. Mathematical analogue models are those that are based on some mathematical concept (rather than a physical representation of fire spread) that coincidentally represents the spread of fire. Other papers in the series survey models of a physical or quasi-physical nature, and empirical or quasi-empirical nature. Many models are extensions or refinements of models developed before 1990. Where this is the case, these models are also discussed but much less comprehensively.


2013 ◽  
Vol 22 (4) ◽  
pp. 428 ◽  
Author(s):  
Holly A. Perryman ◽  
Christopher J. Dugaw ◽  
J. Morgan Varner ◽  
Diane L. Johnson

In spite of considerable effort to predict wildland fire behaviour, the effects of firebrand lift-off, the ignition of resulting spot fires and their effects on fire spread, remain poorly understood. We developed a cellular automata model integrating key mathematical models governing current fire spread models with a recently developed model that estimates firebrand landing patterns. Using our model we simulated a wildfire in an idealised Pinus ponderosa ecosystem. Varying values of wind speed, surface fuel loading, surface fuel moisture content and canopy base height, we investigated two scenarios: (i) the probability of a spot fire igniting beyond fuelbreaks of various widths and (ii) how spot fires directly affect the overall surface fire’s rate of spread. Results were averages across 2500 stochastic simulations. In both scenarios, canopy base height and surface fuel loading had a greater influence than wind speed and surface fuel moisture content. The expected rate of spread with spot fires occurring approached a constant value over time, which ranged between 6 and 931% higher than the predicted surface fire rate of spread. Incorporation of the role of spot fires in wildland fire spread should be an important thrust of future decision-support technologies.


2008 ◽  
Vol 38 (2) ◽  
pp. 190-201 ◽  
Author(s):  
Paulo M. Fernandes ◽  
Hermínio Botelho ◽  
Francisco Rego ◽  
Carlos Loureiro

Thresholds for surface fire spread were examined in maritime pine ( Pinus pinaster Ait.) stands in northern Portugal. Fire sustainability was assessed after ignition of 2 m fire lines or in larger burns conducted in 10–15 m wide plots. The experiments were carried out from November to June in three fuel types: litter, litter plus shrubs, and litter with a nonwoody understorey. Moisture content of fine dead fuels, on-site weather variables, and descriptors of the fuel complex all had a highly significant influence on the probability of self-sustaining fire spread. A logistic model based solely on fuel moisture content correctly classified the fire sustainability status of 88% of the observations. Nonetheless, the subjectivity of the moisture of extinction concept was apparent, and further accuracy was achieved by the consecutive addition of fire spread direction (forward or backward), fuel type, and ambient temperature. Fully sustained fire spread, in opposition to marginal burns with broken fire fronts, was similarly dependent on fuel moisture but was affected also by fire spread direction and time since rain. The models can benefit fire research and fire management operations but can be made more practical if integrated in a fire danger rating system.


2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Florian Briquemont ◽  
Akli Benali

<p>Large wildfires are amongst the most destructive natural disasters in southern Europe, posing a serious threat to both human lives and the environment.</p><p>Although wildfire simulations and fire risk maps are already very a useful tool to assist fire managers in their decisions, the complexity of fire spread and ignition mechanisms can greatly hinder their accuracy. An important step in improving the reliability of wildfire prediction systems is to implement additional drivers of fire spread and fire risk in simulation models.</p><p>Despite their recognized importance as factors influencing fuel flammability and fire spread, soil moisture and live fuel moisture content are rarely implemented in the simulation of large wildfires due to the lack of sufficient and accurate data. Fortunately, new satellite products are giving the opportunity to assess these parameters on large areas with high temporal and spatial resolution.</p><p>The purpose of this study is twofold. First, we aimed to evaluate the capabilities of satellite data to estimate soil moisture and live fuel moisture content in different landcovers.  Secondly, we focused on the potential of these estimates for assessing fire risk and fire spread patterns of large wildfires in Portugal. Ultimately, the goal of this study is to implement these estimated variables in fire spread simulations and fire risk maps.<br><br>We compared datasets retrieved from Sentinel 1, SMAP (Soil Moisture Active Passive radiometer) and MODIS (Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectrometer) missions. Several estimators of LFMC based on spectral indices were tested and their patterns were compared with field data. Based on these estimators, we assessed the impact of LFMC and soil moisture on the extent and occurrence of large wildfires. Finally, we built a database of detailed historical wildfire progressions, which we used to evaluate the influence of soil moisture and LFMC on the velocity and direction of the fire spread.</p>


2013 ◽  
Vol 22 (5) ◽  
pp. 625 ◽  
Author(s):  
Ambarish Dahale ◽  
Selina Ferguson ◽  
Babak Shotorban ◽  
Shankar Mahalingam

Formulation of a physics-based model, capable of predicting fire spread through a single elevated crown-like shrub, is described in detail. Predictions from the model, obtained by numerical solutions to governing equations of fluid dynamics, combustion, heat transfer and thermal degradation of solid fuel, are found to be in fairly good agreement with experimental results. In this study we utilise the physics-based model to explore the importance of two parameters – the spatial variation of solid fuel bulk density and the solid fuel moisture content – on the burning of an isolated shrub in quiescent atmosphere. The results suggest that vertical fire spread rate within an isolated shrub and the time to initiate ignition within the crown are two global parameters significantly affected when the spatial variation of the bulk density or the variation of fuel moisture content is taken into account. The amount of fuel burnt is another parameter affected by varying fuel moisture content, especially in the cases of fire propagating through solid fuel with moisture content exceeding 40%. The specific mechanisms responsible for the reduction in propagation speed in the presence of higher bulk densities and moisture content are identified.


2014 ◽  
pp. 353-359
Author(s):  
Anita Pinto ◽  
Juncal Espinosa-Prieto ◽  
Carlos Rossa ◽  
Stuart Matthews ◽  
Carlos Loureiro ◽  
...  

1995 ◽  
Vol 5 (1) ◽  
pp. 1 ◽  
Author(s):  
D Gillon ◽  
V Gomendy ◽  
C Houssard ◽  
J Marechal ◽  
JC Valette

The aim of this study was to assess the effects on combustion characteristics, and their consequences on nutrient losses, of (1) the change in load and packing ratio of the fuel bed, and (2) the change in fuel moisture content. Eighty-one experimental burns were carried out, on a test bench in the laboratory; the fuel was composed of needles and twigs of Pinus pinaster. Two levels of fuel load an dpacking ratio (8t ha-1 needles, packing ratio of 0.040; and 16t ha-1 twigs and needles, packing ratio of 0.066) were compared at constant moisture content (6%); and four levels of moisture content(6%, 12%, 24% and 30% dry weight) were compared at constant fuel load (8t ha-1 needles). At constant moisture content, an increase in the load and packing ratio of the fuel bed led to an increase in the height of flames and in the maximum temperature 25 cm above the fuel bed, in the duration of the rise in temperatures within the fuel, and in the fireline intensity. Conversely, the rate of fire spread decreased. At constant fuel load, an increase in the moisture content of the fuel led to a decrease in the rate of fire spread, in the flame height and the maximum temperature 25 cm above the fuel bed, and in the fireline intensity. In contrast, the maximum temperatures reached within the fuel, when the flaming front was continuous, did not significantly change with varying fuel loads or fuel moisture contents. The percentage fuel consumption was always high, more than 80%, but it significantly decreased with increasing fuel load and packing ratio and with increasing moisture content. Total losses of N, S, and K significantly decreased with increasing fuel load and packing ratio, with increasing moisture content and with decreasing percentage fuel consumption. Losses in P only significantly decreased with increasing fuel load and packing ratio. Losses in Mg and Ca were not significantly affected by fuel load, moisture content. or percentage consumption. An attempt was made to separate volatile from particulate losses, based on the assumption that all the losses of Ca were in particulate form. Whereas losses in particulate form remained relatively constant, losses of nutrients in volatile form seem to have been related to the percentage fuel consumption. Even if these experimental burns were of low intensity (40 to 56 kW m-1), their impact, in terms of lethal temperatures and nutrient losses, was not negligible, particularly for N and P. The increasing fireline intensity with increasing fuel load was not accompanied by an enhancement in the proportion of nutrient losses. In the same way, the strong decrease in fireline intensity with increasing fuel moisture content led only to a slight decrease in some nutrient losses. It was through their effect on the percentage fuel consumption that fuel load or moisture content modified the nutrient losses, particularly volatile losses.


2010 ◽  
Vol 19 (3) ◽  
pp. 284 ◽  
Author(s):  
W. R. Anderson ◽  
E. A. Catchpole ◽  
B. W. Butler

An extensive set of wind-tunnel fires was burned to investigate convective heat transfer ahead of a steadily progressing fire front moving across a porous fuel bed. The effects of fuel and environmental variables on the gas temperature profile and the ‘surface wind speed’ (gas velocity at the fuel bed surface) are reported. In non-zero winds, the temperature of the air near the fuel bed surface decays exponentially with distance from the fire front. In zero winds, the temperature decreases rapidly within a very short distance of the flame front, then decays slowly thereafter. The maximum air temperature decreases as the free stream wind speed, packing ratio and fuel moisture content increase. The characteristic distance of the exponential decay increases strongly with the free stream wind speed and decreases with the packing ratio and surface area-to-volume ratio of the fuel. The surface wind speed depends strongly on the free stream wind speed, and to a lesser extent on packing ratio, fuel bed depth and fuel moisture content. There are three general regimes for the surface flow: (1) a constant velocity flow of approximately half the free stream flow, far from the flame front; (2) an intermediate zone of minimum flow characterised by low or reversed flow; and (3) a region near the flame front where the velocity rises rapidly almost to the free stream velocity. The boundaries between the three regions move further from the flame front with increasing wind speed, in a way which is only slightly affected by fuel geometry.


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