Forest fire occurrence and climate change in Canada

2010 ◽  
Vol 19 (3) ◽  
pp. 253 ◽  
Author(s):  
B. M. Wotton ◽  
C. A. Nock ◽  
M. D. Flannigan
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Boreal Forest ◽  
Forest Fire ◽  
Forest Fires ◽  
General Circulation ◽  
Fire Regime ◽  
General Circulation Models ◽  
Fire Occurrence ◽  
Fire Activity ◽  
In Fire

The structure and function of the boreal forest are significantly influenced by forest fires. The ignition and growth of fires depend quite strongly on weather; thus, climate change can be expected to have a considerable impact on forest fire activity and hence the structure of the boreal forest. Forest fire occurrence is an extremely important element of fire activity as it defines the load on suppression resources a fire management agency will face. We used two general circulation models (GCMs) to develop projections of future fire occurrence across Canada. While fire numbers are projected to increase across all forested regions studied, the relative increase in number of fires varies regionally. Overall across Canada, our results from the Canadian Climate Centre GCM scenarios suggest an increase in fire occurrence of 25% by 2030 and 75% by the end of the 21st century. Results projected from fire climate scenarios derived from the Hadley Centre GCM suggest fire occurrence will increase by 140% by the end of this century. These general increases in fire occurrence across Canada agree with other regional and national studies of the impacts of climate change on fire activity. Thus, in the absence of large changes to current climatic trends, significant fire regime induced changes in the boreal forest ecosystem are likely.

Current and future patterns of forest fire occurrence in China

2020 ◽  
Vol 29 (2) ◽  
pp. 104 ◽  
Author(s):  
Zhiwei Wu ◽  
Hong S. He ◽  
Robert E. Keane ◽  
Zhiliang Zhu ◽  
Yeqiao Wang ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Forest Fire ◽  
General Circulation ◽  
Southern China ◽  
Northern China ◽  
General Circulation Models ◽  
Boosted Regression Trees ◽  
Fire Occurrence ◽  
Representative Concentration Pathways ◽  
Fire Patterns ◽  
In Fire

Forest fire patterns are likely to be altered by climate change. We used boosted regression trees modelling and the MODIS Global Fire Atlas dataset (2003–15) to characterise relative influences of nine natural and human variables on fire patterns across five forest zones in China. The same modelling approach was used to project fire patterns for 2041–60 and 2061–80 based on two general circulation models for two representative concentration pathways scenarios. The results showed that, for the baseline period (2003–15) and across the five forest zones, climate variables explained 37.4–43.5% of the variability in fire occurrence and human activities were responsible for explaining an additional 27.0–36.5% of variability. The fire frequency was highest in the subtropical evergreen broadleaf forests zone in southern China, and lowest in the warm temperate deciduous broadleaved mixed-forests zone in northern China. Projection results showed an increasing trend in fire occurrence probability ranging from 43.3 to 99.9% and 41.4 to 99.3% across forest zones under the two climate models and two representative concentration pathways scenarios relative to the current climate (2003–15). Increased fire occurrence is projected to shift from southern to central-northern China for both 2041–60 and 2061–80.

scholarly journals Production of peroxy nitrates in boreal biomass burning plumes over Canada during the BORTAS campaign

2016 ◽  
Vol 16 (5) ◽  
pp. 3485-3497 ◽  
Author(s):  
Marcella Busilacchio ◽  
Piero Di Carlo ◽  
Eleonora Aruffo ◽  
Fabio Biancofiore ◽  
Cesare Dari Salisburgo ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Boreal Forest ◽  
Forest Fire ◽  
Biomass Burning ◽  
Forest Fires ◽  
Chemical Mechanism ◽  
Fire Emissions ◽  
Fire Plumes ◽  
Peroxy Nitrates ◽  
In Fire ◽  
The Impact

Abstract. The observations collected during the BOReal forest fires on Tropospheric oxidants over the Atlantic using Aircraft and Satellites (BORTAS) campaign in summer 2011 over Canada are analysed to study the impact of forest fire emissions on the formation of ozone (O3) and total peroxy nitrates ∑PNs, ∑ROONO2). The suite of measurements on board the BAe-146 aircraft, deployed in this campaign, allows us to calculate the production of O3 and of  ∑PNs, a long-lived NOx reservoir whose concentration is supposed to be impacted by biomass burning emissions. In fire plumes, profiles of carbon monoxide (CO), which is a well-established tracer of pyrogenic emission, show concentration enhancements that are in strong correspondence with a significant increase of concentrations of ∑PNs, whereas minimal increase of the concentrations of O3 and NO2 is observed. The ∑PN and O3 productions have been calculated using the rate constants of the first- and second-order reactions of volatile organic compound (VOC) oxidation. The ∑PN and O3 productions have also been quantified by 0-D model simulation based on the Master Chemical Mechanism. Both methods show that in fire plumes the average production of ∑PNs and O3 are greater than in the background plumes, but the increase of ∑PN production is more pronounced than the O3 production. The average ∑PN production in fire plumes is from 7 to 12 times greater than in the background, whereas the average O3 production in fire plumes is from 2 to 5 times greater than in the background. These results suggest that, at least for boreal forest fires and for the measurements recorded during the BORTAS campaign, fire emissions impact both the oxidized NOy and O3,  but (1 ∑PN production is amplified significantly more than O3 production and (2) in the forest fire plumes the ratio between the O3 production and the ∑PN production is lower than the ratio evaluated in the background air masses, thus confirming that the role played by the ∑PNs produced during biomass burning is significant in the O3 budget. The implication of these observations is that fire emissions in some cases, for example boreal forest fires and in the conditions reported here, may influence more long-lived precursors of O3 than short-lived pollutants, which in turn can be transported and eventually diluted in a wide area.

scholarly journals Risk of large-scale fires in boreal forests of Finland under changing climate

2016 ◽  
Vol 16 (1) ◽  
pp. 239-253 ◽  
Author(s):  
I. Lehtonen ◽  
A. Venäläinen ◽  
M. Kämäräinen ◽  
H. Peltola ◽  
H. Gregow
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Forest Fire ◽  
Forest Fires ◽  
Large Scale ◽  
Fire Danger ◽  
Short Period ◽  
Projected Change ◽  
Fire Activity ◽  
Model Variability ◽  
The Impact

Abstract. The target of this work was to assess the impact of projected climate change on forest-fire activity in Finland with special emphasis on large-scale fires. In addition, we were particularly interested to examine the inter-model variability of the projected change of fire danger. For this purpose, we utilized fire statistics covering the period 1996–2014 and consisting of almost 20 000 forest fires, as well as daily meteorological data from five global climate models under representative concentration pathway RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 scenarios. The model data were statistically downscaled onto a high-resolution grid using the quantile-mapping method before performing the analysis. In examining the relationship between weather and fire danger, we applied the Canadian fire weather index (FWI) system. Our results suggest that the number of large forest fires may double or even triple during the present century. This would increase the risk that some of the fires could develop into real conflagrations which have become almost extinct in Finland due to active and efficient fire suppression. However, the results reveal substantial inter-model variability in the rate of the projected increase of forest-fire danger, emphasizing the large uncertainty related to the climate change signal in fire activity. We moreover showed that the majority of large fires in Finland occur within a relatively short period in May and June due to human activities and that FWI correlates poorer with the fire activity during this time of year than later in summer when lightning is a more important cause of fires.

scholarly journals Effects of Climate Change on Natural-Caused Fire Activity in Western U.S. National Forests

Atmosphere ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 12 (8) ◽  
pp. 981
Author(s):  
Hadi Heidari ◽  
Mazdak Arabi ◽  
Travis Warziniack
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
United States ◽  
Forest Fire ◽  
Forest Fires ◽  
Western United States ◽  
National Forests ◽  
Climate Change Scenarios ◽  
Negative Consequences ◽  
Fire Activity ◽  
The Future

Climate change, with warming temperatures and shifting precipitation patterns, may increase natural-caused forest fire activity. Increasing natural-caused fires throughout western United States national forests could place people, property, and infrastructure at risk in the future. We used the fine K nearest neighbor (KNN) method coupled with the downscaled Multivariate Adaptive Constructed Analogs (MACA) climate dataset to estimate changes in the rate of natural-caused fires in western United States national forests. We projected changes in the rate of minor and major forest fires from historical (1986–2015) to future (2070–2099) conditions to characterize fire-prone national forests under a range of climate change scenarios. The results indicate that climate change can add to the occurrence of forest fires in western United States national forests, particularly in Rocky Mountain, Pacific Southwest, and Southwestern United States Forest Service regions. Although summer months are projected to have the highest rate of natural-caused forest fire activity in the future, the rate of natural-caused forest fires is likely to increase from August to December in the future compared to the historical conditions. Improved understanding of altered forest fire regimes can help forest managers to better understand the potential effects of climate change on future fire activity and implement actions to attenuate possible negative consequences.

scholarly journals Le régime des incendies de forêt en Valais: influences climatiques et anthropiques | Forest fire regimes in Valais: climatic and human influences

2010 ◽  
Vol 161 (11) ◽  
pp. 442-449 ◽  
Author(s):  
Thomas Zumbrunnen ◽  
Matthias Bürgi ◽  
Harald Bugmann
Keyword(s):  
Forest Fire ◽  
Forest Fires ◽  
Fire Regime ◽  
Fire Regimes ◽  
Combustible Material ◽  
Determining Factors ◽  
Before And After ◽  
History Of ◽  
The Alps ◽  
In Fire

Forest fire regimes are particularly sensitive to variations in the climate and to human influences. In the Alps both the manner in which the land is used and climatic changes, in particular rises in temperature and the frequency of drought periods, are probably going to bring about considerable modifications in fire regimes. The history of these fires in Valais in the 20th century is however still little known, as is the influence of the different determining factors. From a study of documentary archives we have therefore reconstituted the history of forest fires in Valais from 1904 to 2008. We then tried to establish whether or not the fire regime had evolved during this time by comparing descriptive statistics from the first and the second halves of the period under study. By means of correlation analyses we could then find what factors had a significant influence on the occurrence of fires. What emerges is that forest fire activity moved towards the plain in the course of the 20 century, probably on account of the increase in population density at lower altitudes. The seasonality of the fires also evolved: there was an outbreak of fires in the spring during the second half of the period under study, whereas in the first half fires mostly occurred in summer. On the other hand the frequency of the fires and the surface area burned annually did not differ significantly in the periods before and after 1955. As for the balance between factors determining the frequency of fires and the surface burned annually, there has been a modification in the period under study. Although drought was a decisive factor in the first decades of the 20 century, afterwards it seems to have declined in importance, being supplanted by other factors, notably the availability of combustible material. The fact that at present the forest fire regime is apparently regulated by factors other than the climate means it is possible to envisage concrete measures in order to limit fire risks.

Future fire in Canada's boreal forest: paleoecology results and general circulation model - regional climate model simulations

2001 ◽  
Vol 31 (5) ◽  
pp. 854-864 ◽  
Author(s):  
Mike Flannigan ◽  
Ian Campbell ◽  
Mike Wotton ◽  
Christopher Carcaillet ◽  
Pierre Richard ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Boreal Forest ◽  
General Circulation Model ◽  
Forest Fire ◽  
Forest Fires ◽  
General Circulation ◽  
Climate Model ◽  
Circulation Model ◽  
Regional Variability ◽  
Fire Weather Index ◽  
Model Simulations

General circulation model simulations suggest the Earth's climate will be 1–3.5°C warmer by AD 2100. This will influence disturbances such as forest fires, which are important to circumpolar boreal forest dynamics and, hence, the global carbon cycle. Many suggest climate warming will cause increased fire activity and area burned. Here, we use the Canadian Forest Fire Weather Index to simulate future forest fire danger, showing the expected increase in most of Canada but with significant regional variability including a decrease in much of eastern Canada. These results are in general agreement with paleoecological data and general circulation model results from the 6000 calendar years BP interval, which was a time of a warmer climate that may be an analogue for a future climate.

Assessing economic benefits of climate change on Canada's boreal forest

1989 ◽  
Vol 19 (4) ◽  
pp. 463-470 ◽  
Author(s):  
G. C. Van Kooten ◽  
Louise M. Arthur
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Boreal Forest ◽  
General Circulation ◽  
General Circulation Models ◽  
Welfare Economics ◽  
Economic Benefits ◽  
Economic Effects ◽  
Forest Industry ◽  
Climate Scenarios ◽  
Trading Partners

Methods developed in applied welfare economics are used to determine the economic effects of climate change on Canada's boreal forest industry. Two climate scenarios are tested, both based on general circulation models for doubled concentrations of atmospheric CO2. Under both scenarios forest productivity increases; however, benefits accrue primarily to Canada's trading partners.

scholarly journals Production of peroxy nitrates in boreal biomass burning plumes over Canada during the BORTAS campaign

2015 ◽  
Vol 15 (5) ◽  
pp. 6009-6040
Author(s):  
M. Busilacchio ◽  
P. Di Carlo ◽  
E. Aruffo ◽  
F. Biancofiore ◽  
C. D. Salisburgo ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Boreal Forest ◽  
Forest Fire ◽  
Biomass Burning ◽  
Forest Fires ◽  
Indirect Evidence ◽  
Fire Emissions ◽  
Fire Plumes ◽  
Peroxy Nitrates ◽  
In Fire ◽  
The Impact

Abstract. The observations collected during the BORTAS campaign in summer 2011 over Canada are analysed to study the impact of forest fire emissions on the formation of ozone (O3) and total peroxy nitrates (ΣPNs, ΣROONO2). The suite of measurements on board the BAe-146 aircraft, deployed in this campaign, allows us to calculate the production of O3 and of ΣPNs, a long lived O3 reservoir whose concentration is supposed to be impacted by biomass burning emissions. In fire plumes, profiles of carbon monoxide (CO), which is a well-established tracer of pyrogenic emission, show concentration enhancements that are in strong correspondence with a significant increase of ΣPNs concentrations, whereas minimal increase of the concentrations of O3 and NO2 are observed. In those fire plumes the average ΣPNs production is 12 times greater than in the background plumes, by contrast the average O3 production is only 5 times greater. These results suggest that, at least for boreal forest fires and for the measurements recorded during the BORTAS campaign, fire emissions impact both the oxidized NOy and O3, but: (1) ΣPNs production is affected significantly respect to the O3 production and (2) in the forest fire plumes the ratio between the ΣPNs production and the O3 production is lower than the ratio evaluated in the background air masses, thus confirming that the role played by the ΣPNs produced during biomass burning is significant in the O3 budget. These observations are consistent with elevated production of PAN and concurrent low production (or sometimes loss) of O3 observed in some another campaigns (i.e. ARCTAS-B) focused on forest fire emissions. Moreover our observations extend ARCTAS-B results since PAN is one of the compounds included in the ΣPNs family detected during BORTAS. The implication of these observations is that fire emissions in some cases, for example Boreal forest fires and in the conditions reported here, may influence more long lived precursors of O3 than short lived pollutants, which in turn can be transported and eventually diluted in a wide area. These observations provide additional indirect evidence that O3 production may be enhanced as plumes from forest fires age.

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