Cost-effective fuel treatment planning: a theoretical justification and case study

2020 ◽  
Vol 29 (1) ◽  
pp. 42
Author(s):  
Jason Kreitler ◽  
Matthew P. Thompson ◽  
Nicole M. Vaillant ◽  
Todd J. Hawbaker

Modelling the spatial prioritisation of fuel treatments and their net effect on values at risk is an important area for applied work as economic damages from wildfire continue to grow. We model and demonstrate a cost-effective fuel treatment planning algorithm using two ecosystem services as benefits for which fuel treatments are prioritised. We create a surface of expected fuel treatment costs to incorporate the heterogeneity in factors affecting the revenue and costs of fuel treatments, and then prioritise treatments based on a cost-effectiveness ratio to maximise the averted loss of ecosystem services from fire. We compare treatment scenarios that employ cost-effectiveness with those that do not, and use common tools and models in a case study of the Sisters Ranger District on the Deschutes National Forest in central Oregon, USA. Using cost-effectiveness not only increases the expected averted losses from fuel treatments, but it also allows a larger area to be treated for the same cost, simply by incorporating costs and cost-effectiveness into the prioritisation routine. These results have considerable implications for policymakers and land managers trying to minimise risk. Incorporating costs into the spatial planning of treatments could allow more effective outcomes without increasing fuel treatment budgets.

Mathematics ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 9 (5) ◽  
pp. 566
Author(s):  
Julio Emilio Marco-Franco ◽  
Pedro Pita-Barros ◽  
Silvia González-de-Julián ◽  
Iryna Sabat ◽  
David Vivas-Consuelo

When exceptional situations, such as the COVID-19 pandemic, arise and reliable data is not available at decision-making times, estimation using mathematical models can provide a reasonable reckoning for health planning. We present a simplified model (static but with two-time references) for estimating the cost-effectiveness of the COVID-19 vaccine. A simplified model provides a quick assessment of the upper bound of cost-effectiveness, as we illustrate with data from Spain, and allows for easy comparisons between countries. It may also provide useful comparisons among different vaccines at the marketplace, from the perspective of the buyer. From the analysis of this information, key epidemiological figures, and costs of the disease for Spain have been estimated, based on mortality. The fatality rate is robust data that can alternatively be obtained from death registers, funeral homes, cemeteries, and crematoria. Our model estimates the incremental cost-effectiveness ratio (ICER) to be 5132 € (4926–5276) as of 17 February 2021, based on the following assumptions/inputs: An estimated cost of 30 euros per dose (plus transport, storing, and administration), two doses per person, efficacy of 70% and coverage of 70% of the population. Even considering the possibility of some bias, this simplified model provides confirmation that vaccination against COVID-19 is highly cost-effective.


2019 ◽  
Vol 40 (Supplement_1) ◽  
Author(s):  
J King ◽  
S Bhat ◽  
L J Heath ◽  
C G Derington ◽  
Z Yu ◽  
...  

Abstract Background Direct oral anticoagulants (DOACs) are at least as effective as low-molecular weight heparins (LMWH) at preventing recurrence after cancer-associated venous thromboembolism (CA-VTE). DOACs are also oral and far less costly, but they may confer a higher bleeding risk than LMWH. Purpose To estimate the cost-effectiveness of DOACs and LMWHs for CA-VTE. Methods We developed a health state transition model to estimate recurrent VTE, bleeding events, quality-adjusted life years (QALY), and direct healthcare costs (2018 United States dollars) associated with DOACs vs. LMWH use. The model had four states: (1) long-term anticoagulation (first 3 months after VTE), (2) extended anticoagulation (more than 3 months after VTE), (3) off anticoagulants, and (4) death. We used a United States healthcare sector perspective, 3-month cycle length, and 1-year time horizon. Event probabilities were derived from the Hokusai Cancer VTE trial and other literature. Event and medication costs were obtained from national sources. We used a threshold of less than $50,000 per QALY gained to define cost-effectiveness. Results Compared to LMWH, DOACs were less costly (mean costs: $8,477 vs. $33,917 per year) and similarly effective (mean QALY: 0.616 vs. 0.622). The incremental cost-effectiveness ratio was $4,479,374 per QALY gained with LMWH, indicating that DOACs are cost-effective (Table 1). In threshold analyses, LMWH therapy only became cost-effective when DOAC recurrent VTE risk increased to at least 72% (relative risk vs. LMWH, 6.19) or DOAC clinically relevant bleeding increased to at least 39% (relative risk vs. LMWH, 10.09). Scenarios Recurrent VTE, % Major bleed, % Mean difference DOAC − LMW ICER DOAC LMWH Relative Risk DOAC LMWH Relative Risk Cost QALY Base case 8.1 11.6 0.71 6.8 4.0 1.75 −$25,440 (−26,496, −24,274) −0.006 (−0.019, 0.008) $4,479,374 DOAC outcome rate threshold at which LMWH becomes cost-effective*   Recurrent VTE 71.5 11.7 6.19 – – – −$6,064 (−7,534, −4,627) −0.121 (−0.136, −0.108) $49,886   Major Bleed – – – 38.9 4.0 10.09 −$2,192 (−3,400, −704) −0.044 (−0.056, −0.030) $49,878 DOAC = direct oral anticoagulant, ICER = incremental cost-effectiveness ratio, LMWH = low-molecular-weight heparin, VTE = venous thromboembolism. Values are mean (95% Uncertainty Interval). Uncertainty was derived from 1,000 stochastic model iterations. *Represents the minimum increased risk with DOAC that would result in LMWH achieving an ICER <$50K per QALY gained. Conclusion In this simulation study, DOACs were a cost-effective oral alternative to LMWH for the treatment of CA-VTE. For LMWH to be cost-effective, DOAC event rates needed to be far higher than what is likely to be observed in clinical practice. Acknowledgement/Funding Agency for Health Research and Quality R18HS026156


2021 ◽  
pp. 000992282110382
Author(s):  
Tracey M. Thompson ◽  
Ty E. Hasselman ◽  
Yanzhi Wang ◽  
David W. Jantzen

The pediatric appropriate use criteria (AUC) were applied to transthoracic echocardiograms (TTE) ordered by primary care providers (PCPs) and pediatric cardiologists for the diagnosis of syncope to compare appropriateness ratings and cost-effectiveness. Included were patients ≤18 years of age from October 2016 to October 2018 with syncope who underwent initial outpatient pediatric TTE ordered by a PCP or were seen in Pediatric Cardiology clinic. Ordering rate of TTE by pediatric cardiologists, AUC classification, and TTE findings were obtained. PCPs ordered significantly more TTEs than pediatric cardiologists for “rarely appropriate” indications (61.5% vs 7.5%, P < .001). Cardiologists ordered TTEs at 17.2% of visits. Using appropriateness as a marker of effect, with the incremental cost-effectiveness ratio, it was more cost-effective ($543.33 per patient) to refer to a pediatric cardiologist than to order the TTE alone. This suggests that improved PCP education of the AUC and appropriate indications of TTEs for syncope may improve cost-effectiveness when using order appropriateness as a marker of effectiveness.


Immunotherapy ◽  
2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Wei Jiang ◽  
Zhichao He ◽  
Tiantian Zhang ◽  
Chongchong Guo ◽  
Jianli Zhao ◽  
...  

Aim: To evaluate the cost–effectiveness of ribociclib plus fulvestrant versus fulvestrant in hormone receptor-positive/human EGF receptor 2-negative advanced breast cancer. Materials & methods: A three-state Markov model was developed to evaluate the costs and effectiveness over 10 years. Direct costs and utility values were obtained from previously published studies. We calculated incremental cost–effectiveness ratio to evaluate the cost–effectiveness at a willingness-to-pay threshold of $150,000 per additional quality-adjusted life year. Results: The incremental cost–effectiveness ratio was $1,073,526 per quality-adjusted life year of ribociclib plus fulvestrant versus fulvestrant. Conclusions: Ribociclib plus fulvestrant is not cost-effective versus fulvestrant in the treatment of advanced hormone receptor-positive/human EGF receptor 2-negative breast cancer. When ribociclib is at 10% of the full price, ribociclib plus fulvestrant could be cost-effective.


Trauma ◽  
2017 ◽  
Vol 21 (1) ◽  
pp. 45-54 ◽  
Author(s):  
Maxwell S Renna ◽  
Cristiano van Zeller ◽  
Farah Abu-Hijleh ◽  
Cherlyn Tong ◽  
Jasmine Gambini ◽  
...  

Introduction Major trauma is a leading cause of death and disability in young adults, especially from massive non-compressible torso haemorrhage. The standard technique to control distal haemorrhage and maximise central perfusion is resuscitative thoracotomy with aortic cross-clamping (RTACC). More recently, the minimally invasive technique of resuscitative endovascular balloon occlusion of the aorta (REBOA) has been developed to similarly limit distal haemorrhage without the morbidity of thoracotomy; cost–utility studies on this intervention, however, are still lacking. The aim of this study was to perform a one-year cost–utility analysis of REBOA as an intervention for patients with major traumatic non-compressible abdominal haemorrhage, compared to RTACC within the U.K.’s National Health Service. Methods A retrospective analysis of the outcomes following REBOA and RTACC was conducted based on the published literature of survival and complication rates after intervention. Utility was obtained from studies that used the EQ-5D index and from self-conducted surveys. Costs were calculated using 2016/2017 National Health Service tariff data and supplemented from further literature. A cost–utility analysis was then conducted. Results A total of 12 studies for REBOA and 20 studies for RTACC were included. The mean injury severity scores for RTACC and REBOA were 34 and 39, and mean probability of death was 9.7 and 54%, respectively. The incremental cost-effectiveness ratio of REBOA when compared to RTACC was £44,617.44 per quality-adjusted life year. The incremental cost-effectiveness ratio, by exceeding the National Institute for Health and Clinical Effectiveness’s willingness-to-pay threshold of £30,000/quality-adjusted life year, suggests that this intervention is not cost-effective in comparison to RTACC. However, REBOA yielded a 157% improvement in utility with a comparatively small cost increase of 31.5%. Conclusion Although REBOA has not been found to be cost-effective when compared to RTACC, ultimately, clinical experience and expertise should be the main factor in driving the decision over which intervention to prioritise in the emergency context.


2019 ◽  
Vol 12 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Jorge A. H. Arroz ◽  
Baltazar Candrinho ◽  
Chandana Mendis ◽  
Melanie Lopez ◽  
Maria do Rosário O. Martins

Abstract Objective The aim is to compare the cost-effectiveness of two long-lasting insecticidal nets (LLINs) delivery models (standard vs. new) in universal coverage (UC) campaigns in rural Mozambique. Results The total financial cost of delivering LLINs was US$ 231,237.30 and US$ 174,790.14 in the intervention (302,648 LLINs were delivered) and control districts (219,613 LLINs were delivered), respectively. The average cost-effectiveness ratio (ACER) per LLIN delivered and ACER per household (HH) achieving UC was lower in the intervention districts. The incremental cost-effectiveness ratio (ICER) per LLIN and ICER per HH reaching UC were US$ 0.68 and US$ 2.24, respectively. Both incremental net benefit (for delivered LLIN and for HHs reaching UC) were positive (intervention deemed cost-effective). Overall, the newer delivery model was the more cost-effective intervention. However, the long-term sustainability of either delivery models is far from guaranteed in Mozambique’s current economic context.


2019 ◽  
Vol 2 (2) ◽  
pp. 105-112
Author(s):  
Amelia Lorensia ◽  
Doddy De Queljoe ◽  
Made Dwike Swari Santi

The number of typhoid fever patient in Indonesia is still high. Typhoid fever can be treated by antibiotic therapy such as chloramphenicol and ceftriaxone. The purpose of this study was to compare the cost-effectiveness of chloramphenicol and ceftriaxone which was given to adult patients who were diagnosed with typhoid fever in Sanglah Denpasar Hospital. A comparative study between two alternatives was conducted using the hospital perspective. Retrospective method was used to collect data from patient medical records, who was diagnosed and hospitalized in Sanglah Denpasar Hospital during January 2017 until July 2018. The cost analysis was perform using cost-effectiveness grid and cost-effectiveness ratio (ACER) methods. Cost-effectiveness grid showed that dominant of ceftriaxone for patient with typhoid fever. ACER analysis for ceftriaxone was IDR 2,097,170.88 with effectivenes (length of stay) 4.27 days, and was IDR 2,097,170.88 with effectiveness (the time of reaching normal temperature) 2.42 days. ACER analysis for chloramphenicol was IDR 2,555,464.22        with effectivenes (length of stay) 10.22 days, and was IDR 2,555,464.22 with effectiveness (the time of reaching normal temperature) 3.44 days. ACER analysis showed lower degree of ceftriaxone and higher effectiveness based on length of stay and the time of reaching normal temperature. The conclusion of this study is that ceftriaxone is more cost-effective than chloramphenicol.


Author(s):  
E Beard ◽  
F Lorencatto ◽  
B Gardner ◽  
S Michie ◽  
L Owen ◽  
...  

Abstract Background To help implement behavior change interventions (BCIs) it is important to be able to characterize their key components and determine their effectiveness. Purpose This study assessed and compared the components of BCIs in terms of intervention functions identified using the Behaviour Change Wheel Framework (BCW) and in terms of their specific behavior change techniques (BCTs) identified using the BCT TaxonomyV1, across six behavioral domains and the association of these with cost-effectiveness. Methods BCIs in 251 studies targeting smoking, diet, exercise, sexual health, alcohol and multiple health behaviors, were specified in terms of their intervention functions and their BCTs, grouped into 16 categories. Associations with cost-effectiveness measured in terms of incremental cost-effectiveness ratio (ICER) upper and lower estimates were determined using regression analysis. Results The most prevalent functions were increasing knowledge through education (72.1%) and imparting skills through training (74.9%). The most prevalent BCT groupings were shaping knowledge (86.5%), changing behavioral antecedents (53.0%), supporting self-regulation (47.7%), and providing social support (44.6%). Intervention functions associated with better cost-effectiveness were those based on training (βlow = −15044.3; p = .002), persuasion (βlow = −19384.9; p = .001; βupp = −25947.6; p &lt; .001) and restriction (βupp = −32286.1; p = .019), and with lower cost-effectiveness were those based on environmental restructuring (β = 15023.9low; p = .033). BCT groupings associated with better cost-effectiveness were goals and planning (βlow = −8537.3; p = .019 and βupp = −12416.9; p = .037) and comparison of behavior (βlow = −13561.9, p = .047 and βupp = −30650.2; p = .006). Those associated with lower cost-effectiveness were natural consequences (βlow = 7729.4; p = .033) and reward and threat (βlow = 20106.7; p = .004). Conclusions BCIs that focused on training, persuasion and restriction may be more cost-effective, as may those that encourage goal setting and comparison of behaviors with others.


2021 ◽  
Vol 27 (4) ◽  
pp. 1-7
Author(s):  
Mariana Y Miyamoto ◽  
Ralph Cohen ◽  
Niro Kasahara

Background/Aims The appropriate roles for alternative diagnostic tests in detecting primary angle closure of the eye are uncertain. This study evaluated the cost-effectiveness of Scheimpflug camera imaging, the van Herick technique and gonioscopy to identify primary angle in a developing country. Methods This cross-sectional diagnostic study included participants aged >40 years with suspected primary angle closure in the developing country of Brazil. All participants underwent Scheimpflug camera imaging, a van Herick test and gonioscopy. The diagnostic ability of these tests was evaluated using a receiver operating characteristic curve. Costs of interventions were derived using the Brazilian Hierarchical Classification of Medical Procedures. The cost-effectiveness of the tests were compared using an incremental cost-effectiveness ratio. Results Gonioscopy was confirmed to be the most accurate diagnostic test for primary angle closure, closely followed by the van Herick test. The accuracy of Scheimpflug camera imaging was considerably lower, largely because of its low sensitivity. The incremental cost-effectiveness ratio demonstrated that Scheimpflug camera imaging was also the least cost-effective, as it was considerably more expensive but with less clinical benefits. Conclusions Because of its relatively low accuracy and high costs, Scheimpflug camera imaging is not as cost-effective as gonioscopy nor the van Herick test as a means of diagnosing primary angle closure in a developing country.


Circulation ◽  
2018 ◽  
Vol 138 (Suppl_2) ◽  
Author(s):  
Lars W Andersen ◽  
Mathias J Holmberg ◽  
Asger Granfeldt ◽  
Lyndon P James ◽  
Lisa Caulley

Introduction: Despite a consistent association with improved outcomes, automated external defibrillators (AEDs) are used in only approximately 10% of public out-of-hospital cardiac arrest. One of the barriers towards increased use might be cost. The objective of this study was to provide a contemporary cost-effectiveness analysis on the use of public AEDs in the United States (US) to inform guidelines and public health initiatives. Methods: We compared the cost-effectiveness of public AEDs to no AEDs for out-of-hospital cardiac arrest in the US over a life-time horizon. The analysis assumed a societal perspective and results are presented as costs (in 2017 US dollars) per quality-adjusted life year (QALY). Model inputs were based on reviews of the literature. For the base case, we modelled an annual cardiac arrest incidence per AED of 20%. It was assumed that AED use was associated with a 52% relative increase in survival to hospital discharge with a favorable neurological outcome in those with a shockable rhythm. A probabilistic sensitivity analysis was conducted to account for joint parameter uncertainty. Consistent with recent guidelines from the American Heart Association, we used a willingness-to-pay threshold of $150,000 per QALY gained. Results: The no AED strategy resulted in 1.63 QALYs at a cost of $42,757. The AED strategy yielded an additional 0.26 QALYs for an incremental increase in cost of $13,793 per individual. The AED strategy yielded an incremental cost-effectiveness ratio of $53,797 per QALY gained. The yearly incidence of cardiac arrests occurring in the presence of an AED had minimal effect on the incremental cost-effectiveness ratio except at very low incidences. At an incidence of 1%, the incremental cost-effectiveness ratio was $101,040 per QALY gained. In sensitivity analyses across a plausible range of health-care and societal estimates, the AED strategy remained cost-effective. In the probabilistic sensitivity analysis, the AED strategy was cost-effective in 43%, 85%, and 91% of the scenarios at a threshold of $50,000, $100,000, and $150,000 per QALY gained, respectively. Conclusion: Public AEDs are a cost-effective public health intervention in the US. These findings support widespread dissemination of public AEDs.


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