‘The Great Fiasco’ of the 1948 presidential election polls: status recognition and norms conflict in social science

2018 ◽  
Vol 75 (2) ◽  
pp. 120-144
Author(s):  
Dominic Lusinchi
Keyword(s):  
Social Science ◽  
Presidential Election ◽  
Status Recognition ◽  
Election Polls

scholarly journals The 2012 US Presidential Election Polls And Stock Returns

2015 ◽  
Vol 5 (2) ◽  
pp. 66 ◽  
Author(s):  
Tamir Levy ◽  
Joseph Yagil
Keyword(s):  
New York ◽  
Stock Returns ◽  
Presidential Election ◽  
New York Times ◽  
Democratic Candidate ◽  
Election Poll ◽  
Us Presidential Election ◽  
Mitt Romney ◽  
Election Polls ◽  
The Relationship

<p class="ber"><span lang="EN-GB">This study investigates the relationship between daily US presidential election poll results and stock returns. The sample consists of the daily presidential election polls published in the New-York Times for the period between May 31 and November 5, 2012. They include the percentage of support for the Democratic candidate, Barack Obama, and the Republican candidate, Mitt Romney. The findings indicate that stock returns are positively related to the poll results that support the candidate favored to win the election.</span></p>

Can web ecology provide a clearer understanding of people’s information behavior during election campaigns?

2013 ◽  
Vol 52 (1) ◽  
pp. 91-109 ◽  
Author(s):  
Yoonjae Nam ◽  
Yeon-Ok Lee ◽  
Han Woo Park
Keyword(s):  
Social Science ◽  
Presidential Election ◽  
Research Method ◽  
Local Elections ◽  
Election Campaigns ◽  
Online Networks ◽  
Political Events ◽  
Perceived Importance ◽  
Hyperlink Analysis ◽  
The Web

This article examines the web ecology of the 2010 local elections in South Korea by using social science hyperlink analysis. The online networks of candidates were measured daily during the official campaign period. The results indicate that network dynamics among the candidates for education superintendent changed more rapidly as the campaign progressed than in the case of the mayoral candidates. However, the intensity of online networks for both campaigns was lower than for the country’s last presidential election, in 2007, suggesting that the web ecology of a given election is influenced by the perceived importance of the event and the general popularity of certain candidates. The results also suggest that producing and disseminating information, such as news articles, blog posts and tweets, reflects a more politically conscious action than referring to information via hyperlinks. Furthermore, the article sheds light on the ways in which hyperlink analysis serves as a research method for mining data for web ecology analysis, tracking political events at different points in time and illustrating the general landscape of electoral communication in cyberspace.

Ecological Regression Estimates: Alchemist’s Gold?

1986 ◽  
Vol 10 (1) ◽  
pp. 85-86
Author(s):  
Robert R. Dykstra
Keyword(s):  
Social Science ◽  
Survey Data ◽  
Presidential Election ◽  
Voting Behavior ◽  
Aggregate Data ◽  
Actual Behavior ◽  
Science History ◽  
Social Science History ◽  
Ecological Regression ◽  
Presidential Election Of 1972

Those skeptical of ecological regression in voting behavior studies continue to suggest that problems in applying the technique severely limit its utility. But the cautionary offered in the Winter 1985 number of this journal by William H. Flanigan and Nancy H. Zingale (“Alchemist’s Gold: Inferring Individual Relationships from Aggregate Data,” Social Science History 9: 71-91) goes so far as to suggest that these problems are insurmountable—or virtually insurmountable. As a user, I was prepared to be devastated, but in fact find myself cheered (if a little puzzled).Interested readers will recall that the centerpiece of the authors’ argument is a test involving this question: How did the voters of 1968 behave four years later in the presidential election of 1972? The test consists of comparing voters’ actual behavior, as determined by survey data, with ecological regression estimates of that same behavior. The tabulated results are alleged to be decisive in proving the authors’ point, but instead appear to prove just the opposite of what is intended, as a fresh look at the material reveals.

scholarly journals Review Essay: Election Predictions: Theory and Social Science

1991 ◽  
Vol 12 ◽  
pp. 114-129
Author(s):  
Glenn H. Utter ◽  
James Vanderleeuw
Keyword(s):  
Social Science ◽  
Political Science ◽  
History Of Science ◽  
Review Essay ◽  
Predictive Models ◽  
Presidential Election ◽  
Theoretical Foundation ◽  
Review Of The Literature ◽  
Important Concern ◽  
History Of

An important concern for political scientists is the extent to which the discipline has progressed as a science. Political science has based its claim to being a science on its ability to construct models that predict as well as explain political phenomena. We examine the role that philosophers of science have given to prediction in science generally, and then note examples from the history of science that demonstrate a varied role for prediction in differing sciences. A review of the literature on predicting congressional and presidential election outcomes indicates the impressive success of predictive models. Nonetheless, such models are often open to the criticism that they lack a firm theoretical foundation.

scholarly journals Conceal Carry and Race: A Test of Minority Threat Theory in Law Generation

2017 ◽  
Author(s):  
Christopher W. Mullins ◽  
Daniel R. Kavish
Keyword(s):  
Social Science ◽  
Presidential Election ◽  
Null Hypothesis ◽  
Ethnic Composition ◽  
Public Discussion ◽  
Minority Threat ◽  
The Past ◽  
Threat Theory

Conceal carry weapon (CCW) laws have generated a great deal of public discussion in the past decades, but little social science attention. Scholarly worked on the topic has been focused on finding potential effects of such laws on crime and victimization; little has attempted to explain the trends behind the adoption of the laws. This paper attempts to fill that gap by testing a series of hypotheses grounded in minority threat approaches. Our paper examines whether or not changes in the racial and ethnic composition of a county predict the voting outcome of Missouri&rsquo;s 1999 conceal-carry referendum. Findings fail to reject the null hypothesis and show the best predictor of the vote within a county was how that county voted in the 2000 Presidential election.

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